After just five rounds many believe the top four is already set with Fremantle, Hawthorn, Sydney and Port Adelaide firm favourites to occupy the higher spots in the table. However, who has what it takes to crack the top four and dislodge either of those teams?
At the beginning of the season you would have put Richmond and the Gold Coast in this category. They were both being touted as top four candidates but have had terrible starts to the season. Both will be very lucky just to make the eight.
Collingwood have impressed so far, but can they maintain that level for the whole season? They have had a relatively easy start to the year. The Bulldogs have been impressive but surely their young players cannot sustain their game plan for an entire season.
That leaves North Melbourne, Adelaide or Essendon. Are either of these teams capable of finishing in the top four this year?
North Melbourne
Are we going to see a repeat of their 2014 Jekyll and Hyde season? One week they look capable of winning the premiership, the next they are struggling against a bottom six team. On their day they are capable of beating anyone and are a better side than Adelaide or Essendon, but will we see that enough this year?
They have had a relatively tough start to the season and simply cannot afford to lose to Richmond this week. At 2-4 they can almost farewell any hope of a top four finish.
They still have a tricky patch of games ahead leading into their bye, but if they can negate their way through on the right side of the win-lose column they will be well placed. Their draw significantly eases in the second half of the season, giving them every chance to make a late assault on the top four.
Adelaide
Started the season like a house on fire and had people calling them top four after just one game. They have since come crashing back down with consecutive loses to the Bulldogs and Power but have the personnel to turn it around. On paper they have stars across all lines and when on, especially with a full house at Adelaide Oval, they can be awesome to watch and capable of beating the best teams.
Their biggest problem is their second-tier players and lack of depth. If you can shut down Patrick Dangerfield, Rory Sloane or Taylor Walker you can beat Adelaide. They are heavily reliant on these players to get them across the line. Like all teams injuries can derail your season but more so with Adelaide, especially if Daniel Talia were to get injured for an extended period of time. Adelaide are certainly capable of cracking the top four but will need a lot to go right for them to have any chance.
Essendon
Where are Essendon at? Much like Adelaide they had a great start to the season dominating Sydney for three quarters then backing it up with an upset win over the reigning premiers. The last two weeks, however, have been ordinary. They were dismal against Collingwood and weren’t much better against an unlucky St Kilda. They certainly have enough good players through the middle and back to turn it around, but do they have the fire power up forward?
Essendon are certainly good enough – as they have already shown this year – to match it with the top four sides. The biggest concern with Essendon is that they have shown over a number of years their form drops off significantly towards the end of the season. If we see a repeat this year then the top four will be out of the question.
A common theme across the three mentioned teams is consistency. When they are on they are all certainly good enough to beat the top four teams. It’s more a question of which, if any, can perform at their best consistently throughout the year.
Is the top four already set? Or does North Melbourne, Adelaide or Essendon have what it takes?
jax
Guest
WC have no fears playing any of 'last years' Top 4 Gene. They took one of them out on their home turf today. Port threw the kitchen sink at them during that last quarter but they could not crack through. No Mackenzie, Darling, Brown, Rosa, Selwood, no problem.
WILLO
Guest
Are those three teams capable of being a top 4 team? Yes. However the question is which team out of HAWKS, FREO, PORT and SYD drops out?
langou
Roar Guru
Pre-season I picked Adelaide to make the four and I believe they are still a chance.
NM Killer
Guest
Its funny you listed North Melbourne first on your list. They absolutely have no chance of making the top 4.
AB
Guest
All three are capable of beating anyone on their day, but even after just five rounds, their inconsistency is quite amazing. And I think it's consistency that ultimately separates them from the top four. None of them looks capable of playing at the highest level for a full game, let alone several consecutive games. Given Adelaide's marshmallow-soft draw, they'd have to be the team most likely to sneak into the top four this year. But if they do, they'll be cannon fodder for the likes of Hawthorn, Freo or Sydney in September.
Gecko
Guest
Those top 4 teams do seem a fair distance ahead of the pack but Geelong is as good a chance as any team outside those top 4. GWS would be a rough chance too. Okay a very rough chance.
13th Man
Guest
Of any, probably the Bulldogs at this stage. But i reckon top 4 is pretty much set. Just matters which order.
Liam
Guest
High scoring doesn't mean much if you can keep the other team to just as low a score! Kept Swans to 10 goals (second lowest for season), Hawks to 11 (lowest) and Pies to 9 (lowest). I reckon we'll challenge for the four, a win this week would be a great start, but in the end 5th or 6th is looking more likely. Good article btw!
DylanC
Roar Rookie
I agree with your point on Essendon. Another issue they face is their lack firepower up forward. I do not think they are capable of kicking large enough scores to be a top four team. Last year they ranked 12th and this year they are sitting at 16th for total points. This would need to dramatically change for them to be challenging. As with North, they have so much potential but for some reason only like to use it every couple of weeks. If they could play at their best every 3 out of 4 games they would be a lock for a top four spot. But we all know they seem incapable of doing this.
DylanC
Roar Rookie
I’m not so convinced, we are only five rounds into the season. It way too early to be riding teams off. Look at Port last year, they were sitting at 10-1 and missed the top four. Who out of these teams has the aptitude to challenge, well that’s anyone’s guess. They are all capable but also very inconsistent. However, I think if any can pull it off it will be North Melbourne.
Brian
Guest
The 4-1 Bulldogs fixture is (ES) St Kilda (ES) Fremantle (MCG) Melbourne (ES) GWS (AO) Port Adelaide (ES) Brisbane (ES) St Kilda (ES) Carlton (Cairns) Gold Coast So for me they are turning into the home stretch at 11-3. Then they have Geelong & Collingwood which will help us find out where they are at but otherwise whilst I don't think they are as good as the top 4 their fixture does give them a real shot of making the top 4. At the very least they will make the 8
Daws
Guest
Hey Dylan, good article. As a Freo supporter I'm most scared of playing Adelaide in SA. None of them will be easy beats, but I think when they play interstate against the big 4 then they will struggle to compete for 4 quarters.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Essendon have the personnel it is the way they are playing. Trying to move the ball slowly around in space to move up the ground means that high pressure sides can derail this quickly if Essendon don't play well. North are always dangerous On their day, they can beat anyone. They just aren't on their day enough.
Wilson
Roar Guru
Essendon maybe but North and Crows need to become more consistent and win the games that are 50/50 chance of them winning North showed this week that they are still behind the top 4 with the 60 loss to the hawks and the crows last to Port. So they need to show a bit more against the top teams before I would say they are close to challenging the top 4
Ant
Guest
Essendon Port at Adelaide last season. They hold no fears for us.
WhereIsGene
Guest
None. All three are comfortably behind Hawthorn, Sydney, Freo & Port.