Larkham: Wallabies to escape 'group of death'

"Gregan and Larkham played a very good game but I’m not sure that makes them perceptive and realistic analysts". As opposed to you and your perceptive and realistic analysis Tim?? What are your credentials? Over 200 test caps between them, they might know a little more than the keyboard experts on this page.

My team.. Sio Moore Kepu Carter Horwill Pocock Hooper Palu phipps Foley AAC Toomua Kuridrani Cummins Folau

I understand Birdy. BIL Im afraid is history, esp game 3 I don't think WB will underestimate Wales like how SB did. Wales needs a new coach to be dangerous again.

Don't underestimate Wales, RobC, I know England don't. One of the great mysteries is Wales recent record against Australia, especially when you think that 11 of the Lion's side that did for the Wallabies in the 3rd test were Welsh. It can only be mental, because looking at 'Warrenball', the way Wales like to play the game, you'd think it was the sort of game that would cause the Wallabies problems. If the WBs go into the Welsh game complacent (let's say if they've already beaten England) they'll get turned over.

Don't underestimate Wales, RobC; I know England don't.

I hope for Australia's sake that Larkham's analysis during a game is better than what he's come up with here. It doesn't matter how many great backs the Wallabies may have, or even loose forwards. Their Achilles heel over the last ten years has been their front five, and I can't see any depth there - in fact it looks pretty shallow. And as for Australia being battle hardened, so will every other team. Gregan and Larkham played a very good game but I'm not sure that makes them perceptive and realistic analysts.

Kepu, Robinson, Slipper and Hooper are all the equal, at least, of those four you mention. I agree Fardy has picked up his game after previous off season - but I wouldn't call him "outstanding, world class" yet, although I hope that will prove to the case. But the same applies to a number of others, particularly Skelton, Simmons and Holmes. Probably also Timani, Jones, Arnold, Latu, Vaea, Coleman and McCalman. The known unknown is whether these guys will continue their trajectory for the last games of S15 and into the tests.

We have ENOUGH depth, but not as much as England etc Depth is emerging in players that suit CHEKA'S style. He will pick these type of players. 1. Big brutal forwards to get over the advantage line, and hold their own in scrums and lineouts. This means Skelton, Arnold, Coleman, Timani, Veae, Latu to go with Palu. For Cheika, beanpoles (eg Simmons, Fardy, Carter etc) will only be picked if the "big brutals" can't be competitive in lineout. Hard workers (eg McCalman) will only be picked if "big brutals" don't measure up in RC. 2. Scrums getting better this season because of Technique (Arg influence), so he's confident a stable scrum will speed up ball to backs. Scrum will occasionally dominate, but mostly hold its own. He'll use Kepu, Sio, Slipper, Moore, TPN (if fit), Latu, and maybe Holmes and maybe Melbourne's Emille. Maybe Robinson for scrum practice during tour. No Alexander. He has just enough front rowers. With the "big brutals" behind them, and the newly emerging TECHNIQUE (via Arg), they'll do ok. All of this may allow both Pocock and Hooper, but he'll want Pocock to be "brutal" if he's at No6. If Pocock's at No7, he'll want him a bit wider. He (Cheika) would already be confident of this. 3. With this forward platform to get over advantage line, hold structure in scrums, and win own lineouts, the BACKS will function. Cheika's style is getting it out quickly, even if the pass from No9 bounces or is high. That means Phipps and maybe Stirzakker. Could mean Giteau. Genia is some chance for a No9 that could be on in last 5 min and not pannic. No White. He also wants No9 to be busy and back up. 4. Flat backine, with guys running onto the ball, and coming in at all angles. This means a great passer and handler at No10. We have just enough in Foley and Cooper (if fit) and maybe LLF. They have to be able to pick out runners and hit them. Runners are Falau, Kuandrani, Speight, Tomane, maybe AAC, maybe Giteau, maybe Beale. We have enough runners. No12 (Cheika style) is someone who sets up orher runners from their own running. This means Tomoua, Kerevi ,possibly Quade Cooper (if fit) maybe Beale.....if coach is confident our "big brute" forwards will be regularly getting over the advantage line. We have enough. Coach won't pick anyone just for their kicking (goal or general play), but will get them to improve. Jack D from Rebels an outside chance. The team has to fit the coach's style, and when the emerging forwards are added to the existing (but improving scrum-wise) forwards and existing backs, we have ENOUGH depth to succeed, and surprise many. Cheika won't have to inherit a team that fitted other styles (eg McKenzie style) as he did last year. He never picks favourites, and once SR is finished, he'll show his hand.

Thanks Darren. Yes depth has certainly improved in key areas, injury notwithstanding Locks, though some haven't been capped LHP (if Sio can recover) Backrow, yup. THP? Not so sure. re pool, I think our chances with Wales is alright Final rounds... a different story.

"The Kiwis have so many talented players they could win the RWC with their second 15." Does that mean they will win it by 2 points this time, instead of by just 1? ;)

Oh please yes. But if not, then Stiles would be a good choice.

yup, not a surprise. And a good thing

Good point Markus. But I believe the Boks are well covered at loose forward. Jacques Potgieter had a shot under Meyer, and at International level, and struggled a bit. I believe his game has improved, but realistically has little chance of playing for the Boks. For starters on pure form, he is probably behind the top five Bok loose forwards 1. Frans Louw (Folks forget about him, because he is playing for Bath, but in Northern Hemisphere (ie WC) conditions he will probably be first picked.) 2. Duane Vermeulen 3. Willaim Alberts 4. Schalk Burger 5. Warren Whiteley (Go look at Super rugby tackle stats, this guy is a machine) Ok so Alberts and Burger may move on, after the world cup, but you have to consider, the unofficial quota that there need to 8 players of colour within the 23. So these players are also still in front of Jacques in the queue. 6. Marcel Coetzee 7. Oupa Mahoje 8. Nazaam Carr 9. Siya Kolisi 10. Arno Botha All have had international experience and none of them have disappointed.

"I think the depth is there in Australia," is what Larkham said. By which he clearly means we have enough quality players for us not to be beaten by England and Wales in our pool. I disagree. Demers is saying that the Kiwis don't have to worry about coming up with a squad of exceptional players. And the Boks and England won't have much trouble naming 31 players of proven quality. But Cheika will be stymied because there's such a sharp falloff in outstanding, world class forwards once you get past Moore, TPN, Pocock and Fardy.

Carraro isn't capped so I'd have Kerevi in his place there, but very interesting list nonetheless. And while some of these would be further down the list than others, in terms of Test caps you can still add McMahon, the Faingaas, Lachie Turner, Feauai-Sautia, Ben Daley, Jesse Mogg.

Baring Injury Run on: Slipper, Moore, Kepu, Simmons, Skelton, Fardy, Hooper, McCalman, Phipps, Foley, Speight, Toomua, Kurindrani, AAC, Folau Bench: Sio, Polota-Nau, Robinson, Pocock, Higginbotham, White, Leali'ifano, O'Connor 31 Squad member: Alexander, Latu, Jones, Carter, Palu, Stirzacker, Horne, Tomane, Train on: Hanson, Holmes, Dennis, Gill, Debreczini, Genia, Beale, Show cause for selection: Giteau, Mitchell, G.Smith

Let's just hope Wales and/or England take a slip on that.

So.... Demers Slipper, Moore, Kepu, Simmons, Horwill, Fardy, Hooper, Higginbotham, Genia, Cooper, Cummins, Toomua, Kurindrani, Mitchell, Folau Sio, Polota-Nau, Holmes, Carter, Skelton, McCallman, Pocock, Palu, Phipps, Foley, Horne, Giteu, AAC, Speight, Beale Alexander, Hanson, Robinson, Jones, Dennis, Shatz, Gill, Hoiles, White, Lealeifano, Tomane, Godwin, Carraro, Betham, Harris All capped and all decent teams you'll find. There's also the likes of Stirzacker, Debracini, Kerevi, Veau, Butler, Coleman, Hodgson, Frisby, Beau Robinson and more. I think our depth is much better this RWC than the last one anyway.

My big worry for Fiji is preconceived ideas from the refs. Remember O'Briens melt down game vs France?

I assumed that was the case, though I wonder whether he may have left anyway. His all-round game has improved significantly since joining the Tahs, and if a few South African players depart after the World Cup (maybe Schalk and Willem Alberts for starters) he may see himself with a shot at regular Springbok selection.