A-League finals: Which City will turn up for Victory?

Eight conceded, three scored and two points from a possible twelve. Such a record does not appear worthy of a club that has made the semi-finals of the A-League in 2015.

Yet those are the numbers from Melbourne City’s last four regular season games, which included two losses and two draws.

Last weekend, however, the rebranded franchise fought back with a battling 2-0 victory over Wellington Phoenix in the A-League’s second elimination final. The result typifies City’s season so far, which has seen magnificent results mixed with awful displays.

The first half of the 2014-15 campaign looked to have consigned City to the lower echelons of the A-League ladder, with just four wins from 14 leaving them within touching distance of the top six only due to the poor form of direct rivals.

Yet following the Asian Cup John Van’t Schip’s side came back rejuvenated. Indeed, leading into Round 26 of the A-League, Melbourne City were second only behind Sydney FC in the 2015 form book.

City won five, drew four and lost just twice for 19 points from a possible 33.

However, with finals assured and nothing to play for, they went on to produce two lifeless performances in their final two regular season games against Perth Glory (3-1) and Adelaide United (4-1).

It once again highlighted the topsy-turvy nature of City’s season. And it was therefore somewhat of a surprise to see them get the better of Wellington Phoenix last weekend, stifling their opponents of space, producing a stellar defensive display and opportunistically taking their chances.

There was an element of fortune in the two goals, but you could not say they did not deserve the victory.

A similar display was produced on December 20, 2014, when they recorded the most unlikeliest of victories against their rivals in the Melbourne Derby. Erik Paartalu’s late winner sealed a fierce and heated game where City undoubtedly deserved all three points.

Victory fans will point to periods of dominance, and a few contentious decisions from the referee, but it was nevertheless a fair outcome.

Can Melbourne City produce another top draw performance against Victory in Friday night’s semi-final? Or will they once again follow up a promising and convincing performances with a drab and disinterested outing?

The latter scenario would appear more likely given Victory’s playing stocks and form across the season. But there is hope for City, just like in any knockout game for the underdog.

One positive is that they have won the games that have mattered, so far. Against Brisbane Roar in the race for sixth – considering Perth Glory’s disqualification was only confirmed mid-April – City boast a perfect record with three wins. It always looked like a race between those two, and City came out on top.

They have also shown that they can compete with the best. The only teams they failed to beat this season were Perth Glory, who cheated the salary cap, and perhaps more surprisingly, the troubled Central Coast Mariners.

They defeated Sydney away from home (1-0), blew away a rampant Adelaide United (3-1), and demolished the Newcastle Jets twice (5-2 and 4-0).

The problem, however, as mentioned before, has been the capitulations littered among those impressive results.

Following their 5-2 defeat of Newcastle they lost to the Mariners 2-0. After they overcame Adelaide it was again the Mariners who brought them back to earth with a 1-0 defeat.

Then there are the 2-5 and 0-3 defeats to Melbourne Victory, both at Etihad Stadium, where Friday’s semi-final will take place. Not a good omen.

Melbourne City, nee Heart, have only once taken away a win from Etihad Stadium in the Melbourne Derby. That was back on the first day of the 2012-13 season.

The statistics are against them, as are the team line-ups. Victory trump their opponent in almost every position on the pitch.

Yet City’s great hope lies in their midfield, where they boast the best trio in the A-League – Aaron Mooy, Paartalu and Robi Koren.

The battle with Mark Milligan and Carl Valeri, a fantastic holding duo themselves, will produce an intriguing match-up. Last week Van ‘t Schip used Mooy in a deeper role alongside Paartalu, and it worked to great effect as they stopped Wellington from playing football.

How Van’t Schip will play, however, is a complete mystery. Some of his selections this season have been truly baffling, with the back line a constant source for tinkering.

Defence is one of City’s greatest hopes against Victory, and they will have a tough task nullifying the talents of Besart Berisha, Gui Finkler, Kostas Barabrouses, Fahid Ben Khalfallah and Archie Thompson.

Connor Chapman was reinstalled alongside the brilliant Patrick Kisnorbo last weekend, who put in one of his best performances, with Kew Jaliens missing due to suspension. And that is the way it should stay.

In the nine games that Chapman has played in centre defence, City have conceded just eight goals. He is the perfect foil for Kisnorbo’s gung-ho and aggressive style, and was not once tipped for Socceroos honours for no reason. The way the centre pairing deal with Berisha will prove crucial.

City will also have to keep a close watch on Finkler, who will be key to how this match unravels. The Brazilian did not start in the 1-0 loss to City back in December, while he was a constant threat in the other two games, which finished 8-2 on aggregate.

City have not been able to shackle the playmaker this season, and Victory should take note of that fact.

Elsewhere is the battle between Josh Kennedy and Matthieu Delpierre, two of the tallest players on the field. Kennedy has a knack for scoring decisive and big-game goals, and he continued that reputation with the opener against Wellington.

Kennedy has started to look comfortable in City’s line-up after a stop-start opening to his A-League career. In Delpierre, however, he is coming up against one of the finest defenders to ever grace Australian pitches.

City have the personnel to defeat Victory on their day, although they can only do so much. Victory’s stocks in the creative stakes are numerous, and individual talent is so often decisive in knockout football.

Much depends on how Victory’s stars perform, while a lot relies on which Melbourne City turns up on the day – the impressive, the decent, or the awful.