My nine-year-old son best summed up the unpredictable nature of the 2015 AFL season when he came home yesterday and declared how unfair it was that the kids who knew nothing about football were the ones picking the most winners in his school’s footy tipping competition.
His dismay highlights two things. The first is that the season is an absolute cracker, and unless you barrack for Carlton or the Suns, you won’t get too many arguments about that.
The second thing, and it is a little disturbing, is that having any sort of footy knowledge at all is almost a disadvantage when it comes to successfully predicting match outcomes this year.
Whether you crunch the numbers like Roar columnist Ryan Buckland or go more on gut feel like myself, odds are your tipping performances have still been mediocre. And as Ryan pointed out earlier this week, even the betting markets – the places where tips really count for something – have only pointed the way to a dismal 35 winners out of a possible 54.
That all spells one thing – classic season!
What more do we want from our premier competition than unpredictable results? While it might be frustrating for fans of teams who are expected to win each week, the log jam that is developing throughout the mid section of the ladder (and it is a bigger than usual mid-section stretching from second to fifteenth), will create a most entertaining home-and-away season with a greater number of games having significant meaning as teams jostle for positions, not just in the top eight, but the top four as well.
Was it really just six weeks ago that we were declaring the Hawthorn ‘three-peat’ a foregone conclusion? Had we really written Fremantle off as a true premiership contender?
Did we honestly think that the Gold Coast Suns were finally going to stamp their authority on the competition? Did we really think we had the top four nailed down?
That’s just downright embarrassing if we did!
Even the AFL captains, the ones closest to the action each week, struggled to get things right in their annual pre-season predictions.
When their votes were tallied up they had the Suns well and truly entrenched in the top eight. At the same time they showed very little love for Adelaide, Collingwood and West Coast and absolutely no affection at all for Greater Western Sydney or the Bulldogs.
When it came to grand final predictions, not one of them thought that the Dockers could make it, preferring instead to make Port Adelaide the third favourite behind the obvious choices of Hawthorn and Sydney.
As it turns out, Fremantle have rocketed into contention, being the only undefeated team in the competition and holding a two-game break over the best of the rest.
Of course we are only six rounds in and we all know that the season is more a marathon than a sprint. The expected cream may still rise to the top, but you have to hand it to teams like the Bulldogs and the Giants, and also the Eagles and Magpies, who have given their fans more than they could have hoped for at the start of the year.
The Bulldogs have become the league’s glamour team. Their talented youngsters are playing big bold, audacious football, while veteran favourite Bob Murphy goes about his business of leading the side with a minimum of fuss and maximum output. They have assumed the mantle of becoming everybody’s ‘second’ favourite side. And why not? They are certainly exciting to watch.
But can they stay the distance?
A favourable draw and a heap of raw enthusiasm says they can, although it won’t be all plain sailing. Last weekend’s diabolical fade out against St Kilda being exhibit one in the how-not-to-do-it stakes.
The Giants claimed their biggest scalp last week and are fulfilling every last bit of the potential that we suspected they had, unlike their expansion team cousin from the Gold Coast. Like every developing team they will experience ups and downs, and while they may not hold onto their spot in the eight this year, pencil them in for next year, and the year after, and the year after that.
The Eagles are sitting pretty in second spot on the ladder having defied injuries and the weight of public opinion. Not only that, they have the second best percentage in the league and are looking to extend a three game winning streak when they face the Suns this weekend.
While it is doubtful whether they can hold onto a top-four position for the remainder of the season, come Saturday night they should have at least almost cemented a well deserved place in the top eight.
Collingwood were expected to fall away this year, but Nathan Buckley has stemmed the tide of naysayers for the moment. The Magpies cling to third place on the ladder despite last week’s demoralising loss to Geelong, but it remains to be seen if the Pies can stay there.
Some say they have been blessed with an easy draw thus far, but you can only beat who is put on the field to face you, and for the most part, Collingwood have been spirited in doing so.
Can spirit alone carry them to a finals berth though? It is going to be intriguing to watch.
So which teams will hold their spots in the eight? And which will be the sliders?
Your guess is as good as mine, but here goes.
The final eight will be:
1st – Fremantle
2nd – Sydney
3rd – Hawthorn
4th – Port Adelaide
5th – Adelaide
6th – Western Bulldogs
7th – West Coast
8th – North Melbourne
GWS will finish ninth with 13 wins and Collingwood tenth with 12 wins.
Over to you Roarers. What are your predictions?
Mick
Guest
In regards to Collingwood, everyone seems to forget that this is the 3rd youngest and 2nd most enexperienced team in the comp add to that an experienced and developing coach who has much to learn. On the back of that you'd say to this point their season is truly fairytale, unfortunately for this young side they will still finish bottom 4 - the upside is that in 2 seasons they could be finals contenders - 3 seasons top 4? Who knows flag aspirants maybe? With the Doggies I share your optimism........... so long as they can sustain this style of footy............. which is a great advert for the game! I'd have them eighth and North 6th. Apart from that unfortunately I have to agree with you on the way the comp will finish.
Sean Lee
Expert
I'll agree with you about the goal kicking from set shots Michael. That is one part of the game that hasn't improved and it frustrates me to tears. How blokes with obvious kicking flaws can make it through all the levels of junior coaching without it being worked on has me beat! I guess I was spoilt growing up watching the likes of Dunstall and Lockett.
Michael huston
Guest
And Slane, to prove I'm not just talking about the "same top teams", let's look at last nights game. What should have been a tight thriller right to the end fizzled because I stopped caring half way into the last quarter because it was turn over after turnover, and dropped mark after dropped mark, and missed set shot after missed set shot. It just becomes exhausting when it's been a feature of almost every game this season.
Michael huston
Guest
And I absolutely agree. I like good football, whether it be from a top team or a bottom team. But you have to admit it's disappointing that only one team out of eighteen has been able to be consistently good to watch?
Dean
Guest
Mate, With the exception of Fremantle finishing on top, I agree it's going to be a tough year to pick the top 8. However, I've used the fixture to calculate probable wins and losses for every team in every round, and have come up with the following. 1 Freo 2 Swans 3 Power 4 Hawks 5 Magpies 6 kangaroos 7 Eagles 8 Bombers However if the WADA case starts to affect the bombers players, then I predictGiants to make it at 8th spot.
Sean Lee
Expert
Yeah, I'm not a fan of the 17 - 5 approach either. Maybe we just have to wait for the competition to expand to 24 teams, then everyone can play everyone once over a 23 round season. Things were so easy when it was just a twelve team comp! *sigh*
Sean Lee
Expert
Hi XI. The process I followed to come up with my ladder was to go through the fixture and tip who I thought would win each of the remaining games. I then added that number to the games that each team has already won. That gave GWS 13 wins. The Roos, who I have in eighth, ended up with 14 wins. So this is all based on games that I believe are 'winnable' for each club. Of course, teams lose winnable games all the time so you are right, the game tallies will probably be lower (Freo for instance could win every game they play this year, but probably won't). But as I had to base my predictions on something tangible rather than just wild guessing, I chose to go with 'winnable' games - which, will probably turn out to be nothing more than wild guessing anyway :-)
Sean Lee
Expert
Could the sloppy skills be attributed to increased pressure from the opposition Michael? I think it is fantastic to see the so called power teams such as the Hawks and Swans have to battle hard for their results. That has to be good for the competition!
slane
Guest
Apparently the skill level, 'cleanness' and aesthetic quality of a game is more important to you than a tight contest. Thankfully I couldn't disagree more with you: this season has been fantastic. Give me tight games and upsets instead of the same 4 teams flogging everybody all season.
Michael huston
Guest
I'm not going to go into fixtures or the unpredictability or whatever. But I can say this has been the worst six weeks of collective football I have ever seen. There is one genuinely good team in season 2015, and that is Fremantle. Everyone else who are high on the ladder, have stumbled ass backwards to their success, like Collingwood, West Coast, Western Bulldogs and GWS. The teams whose potential we know is the greatest, like Hawthorn, Port and Sydney, quite frankly, suck. Their effort and skill is embarrassing considering they all made the prelims last year. Nobody can kick straight, Friday nights have been consistently crap, a team will play amazing one week and forget to show up the next, and the all round skill levels shown in the first six rounds have been AWFUL. At this point I'm hoping I can just shut my eyes, hope football as a game improves, and forget this first month and a half ever happened.
Vocans
Guest
The more even the competition the less relevant the 17-5 'solution'. There's potentially lots wrong with it.
XI
Roar Guru
GWS 9th with 13 wins? It'd be amazing if you win that many games and don't make the 8. 11 wins and 9th seems more likely.
TomC
Roar Guru
Meh. I don't think they've been that great. Feel free to disagree, but I think I'm entitled to a basic level of politeness, which you clearly haven't reached. Don't bother responding to my posts if you're not capable of being civil, 13th Man.
13th Man
Guest
sydney 6? are you dreaming? they will be top 2. And West Coast? they should just concentrate on making the 8 which i still think is unlikely. My Top 8 1. Freo 2. Sydney 3. Hawthorn 4. North Melbourne 5. Port Adelaide daylight 6. Adelaide 7. Geelong 8. Bulldogs
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Not a bad 8 at this point in the comp. Not sure how people can argue? Who knows where the hell this is going to end up?
Sean Lee
Expert
TomC, Me Too and todd field - thanks for your contributions. GWS will be the interesting one. I have them just missing out, but only by a game. and as you say, Mumford is a huge key!
todd field
Roar Rookie
Interesting topic even only after a half dozen rounds.Not yet fully sold on the Dogs but I love the way they are playing. My beloved Dees should take note ! My top 8 would look like: Hawthorn Fremantle Sydney Port Adelaide (major gap) North West Coast Adelaide Giants. 8th will be close. GWS will be dependent on Mumford staying fit and keeping their forward line intact. I think the Dogs and Collingwood will sit at 9th and 10th respectively. The Pies dont have the forward line to be a threat and just think the young legs of the Dogs will fade closer to finals,
Me Too
Guest
I'd have the Giants ahead off the Dogs. Think they'll be the first of the new boys to play finals - as long as Mumfor stays on the park anyway. If he goes out espect a Suns type fall away. For the young Dogs I'd expect they will peter out as the season progresses - but their relatively easy draw will help them stay close. Freo Swans Hawks Port North Adelaide West Coast Giants
TomC
Roar Guru
I can't see the Dogs finishing sixth. But hey, I've got no idea. I'm not sure about Sydney for second, either. Of their six games the only one where they were at all impressive was against the Power. I suspect Hawthorn will ultimately cruise into second spot and there'll be at least one dark horse in the top four. It might be West Coast. They have quite a few players to bring back into that team over the next couple of months. I think Adelaide are a chance for fifth or sixth. A lot is going right for the Crows. So just to put it out there: 1. Fremantle 2. Hawthorn 3. Port Adelaide 4. West Coast 5. Adelaide 6. Sydney 7. North 8. GWS Collingwood to fade as they did last year. Essendon, who I was so keen on pre-season, have issues.
Sean Lee
Expert
True, it will be tougher for them without Sloane. I still think they are a better side than the three teams I placed below them in my final eight though. Who knows though? Anything could happen and probably will!