Tell me how NSW is going to beat Queensland in State of Origin I, because I can’t see where a Blues win is going to come from.
OK, they’ve got home-ground advantage, and that is very important. The Blues have got a great record at ANZ Stadium – particularly in series-opening matches.
Seven times NSW and Queensland have played the first game of the series at the venue for Wednesday night’s match and six times NSW has won.
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The only loss came in the opening game of the 2010 series, when the Maroons won 28-24. NSW won the most recent series opener played there – 14-6 in 2013. But I still think the negatives outweigh the positives for the Blues.
I’ve written recently about the fact Jarryd Hayne is missing and how the Blues brains trust can’t find a halves pairing they can have ongoing faith in, and now that the game is in sight those factors loom as enormous.
Hayne is an absolute superstar who was the overwhelming reason NSW won last year’s series.
The lack of star halves who are eligible for NSW means the Blues have had to go with a halfback who has been out of form this season, in Trent Hodkinson, and another halfback who has struggled previously at Origin level, in Mitchell Pearce – only this time at five-eighth.
The Maroons have had more great halves to pick from in the last decade than seems fair.
First it was the partnership of Darren Lockyer at five-eighth and Johnathan Thurston at halfback. Then, when Lockyer retired, Thurston went to five-eighth and Cooper Cronk, who had warmed up from the bench for a couple of series, took over at halfback.
Daly Cherry-Evans can’t get into the Queensland starting side apart from Game 2 last season, which he started when Cronk was out injured.
Now, Cherry-Evans is out for Game 1 this year and Michael Morgan comes on to the bench for Queensland.
The apparently never-ending quality of this production line is extraordinary.
Let me ask you this: Leaving out Thurston and Cronk, if you had your pick of Hodkinson, Pearce, Cherry-Evans and Morgan as the NSW halves, who would you take?
I’d take Morgan and Cherry-Evans.
The record of NSW in the last nine series would be much, much better than it is – just one series win to the Blues and eight to Queensland – if the two teams had swapped halves.
There isn’t much between the two forward packs.
NSW couldn’t pick Paul Gallen and Greg Bird because of injury and suspension respectively and they left Anthony Watmough and Luke Lewis out by choice.
Watmough’s time had come and while Lewis has vast experience and would still do a job for you, maybe it was time to bring a couple of good, young forwards into the squad.
The Blues pack still has plenty going for it, but the Maroons are unlikely to lose the forward battle. They will either finish level in that area or maybe even shade the Blues.
NSW can’t match the superstar Queensland backline. That is just plain obvious.
The Blues won the first two games of last year’s series largely off the back of a magnificent Hayne and a tremendous defensive effort that was supplemented by a large portion of in-your-face niggling tactics.
They did all of that just about as well as a team can do, but they still only won the two games by four points and two points respectively.
Then, in Game 3, Queensland came out and thrashed them. Even when you take into account the possibility the Blues lost some intensity, it was a fabulous performance from the Maroons.
Queensland have learned from the mistake they made in games one and two, when they allowed themselves to get caught up in the niggling that the Blues had started.
It threw their game off balance and they didn’t start getting back on track until after the Blues had clinched the series.
The Maroons have talked about sticking to what they do best this time around and the referees are more likely to be less tolerant when it comes to the niggling as well.
We’re going to be left with a Blues side that doesn’t appear to have a lot of points in it trying to beat a very dangerous Maroons outfit that will have a better focus than it did last year.
The Blues may defend very well again, but it is highly unlikely they can defend well enough to stop Queensland from finding a way – at some stage of the game – to make the crucial difference.
It might still be fairly close, because the ANZ Stadium surface is usually a bit slippery at this time of year and that will suit the likely NSW tactics, but the Maroons will be determined to play differently to how they played last year and they have the necessary game-breakers.
Maroons to win.
Benjamin Kerua
Guest
Am a long time and die out fan for Queensland Maroon, I absolutely know that Maroons will win the game 1 state of origin due to all the superstars are combining together, comparing with the Blues. The all power house for QLD are all there who makes the QLD famous through out the nation and even to the all Pacific nations. Those are the guys (Billy S, Mathew S, Smith, Inglis, Justin, Byod, Thiady, Cronk, Parker) behind and makes QLD become famous. If you see and compare with the last year's lineup, the key players for QLD Maroons didnt play, most of them and the Blues won game 1 and 2, but the Mighty Maroons show them (Blues) in game 3 that they are still the best and have the real gifted talent in rugby when it comes to State of Origin. Maroon will defeat Blues, anywhere!!!! Benjamin Kerua-Maroons die out fan
nopuritan
Guest
so is adam reynolds!!
nopuritan
Guest
Well Oil Beef Hooked! So he is! i just read his wiki page. he was born in Kingaroy and grew up in Cherbourg - good on ya son! how's this... "he attended Marsden State High School with Israel Folau, Quade Cooper, Greg Inglis, Nathan Peats and Adam Reynolds.."
matth
Guest
It was positive if you are a Queenslander.
matth
Guest
I assume Gillett is there to pretty much tackle anything that moves
Bonza
Guest
Greg, glad you asked. If you watched the Oz/Kiwi test that should've provided you with some hints. Qld spine was off their game, especially halves due to aggressive powerful Kiwi pack which....NSW have chosen. All it took was some Manu power (Tupou, Dugan, Jennings) and job was done. Sure, Pearce will have to lift and I'd love to have Blake Ferguson in there but I think in Sydney we'll get it done. A real NSWelshman should never ask Greg. Have a schooner of Reschs and relax.
paul
Guest
Pritchard you boring hack be original and write something pos . All you journos are the greatest team of neg doom and gloom merchants god put breath into.. pearce and hodgo to go well against dads army and win .
Danno1
Guest
Hi Jay C Some good summaries there. Underrated part of Qld attack will be Corey Parker, has provided consistent great off-loads in SOO, enabling second phase play and sucking in a lot of NSW defence. If he and Smith do what they're good at Qld will win comfortably. But and its a big one, as you suggested above i think NSW might win with the forwards driving through middle then tiring out out QLDs older forwards and JT and CC on the edges. They'll then have some shots at getting a little second phase play through Trent Merrin and Beau Scott to Jennings and Dugan on the outside of JT. A bit like how they sent Hayne down that channel in game 1 last year. The Blues to win narrowly
Lance Skelton
Guest
I think NSW will get hold of this ageing QLD team. They'll belt them, much like they did last year. Thurston and Cronk and Slater in particular will be worried about getting smashed with the ball, or just after they pass it. Can't wait to see Klemmer and Jackson run at blokes like Thaiday and Miles and Smith. It's going to be a beauty, and I'm predicting an even more physical contest than usual. Go Blues!!!
Mark
Guest
I can't see nsw winning game 1. They're a much younger side, which might mean they're fitter and perhaps more naive which could work in their favour but they lose out on experience. For nsw to win they need to play with the right attitude, they must play with confidence, controlled aggression and the strong desire to play well for each other, the coach and the fans. The halves have to have solid games, we know they're not at the same level as the qld pairing. They must kick well, long and short with repeat sets. They've got to get repeat sets because we're not as creative in attack. The more sets we have in qld territory the more chances and we tire the qlders. Hopefully Daley has worked out plays for isolating their big men with out backs like Dugan, Morris and Jennings. Pearce has to have a good game, hopefully he's a totally different player to previous seasons. Run the ball, short balls, long balls, offloads , keep them guessing. Hodgkinson to have a good goal kicking percentage. Go the blues!!!
Grand Armee
Guest
I am a Queenslander, but I cannot understand the Pearce hate from either side. He looks ten times the player he was when he had all those origin failures. His running game from his rookie year is back, he looks like he has more time and confidence out there, and with no Bird and Gallen hogging the hit-ups, he might get more of the ball. Where Pearce might fall down is if Laurie restricts him to one side of the field instead of letting him have the freedom. I suspect a Queensland win based on the sting left on them from last year which remotivates them after all that success where they got complacent. After this, I expect an exodus of retirements with the veterans having nothing else to prove having won 8 in a row, followed by revenge for the eventual loss. Only a few may stay on (including Cameron Smith) to give Mal the luxury to not make so many changes at once. NSW looks in a good position for the future by Laurie blooding some young guns, but I am not convinced Dugan was the best option for fullback (probably centre again), and Cordner and Merrin are too good to be on the bench (and Jackson is probably not ready to start). If I was Mal, I would have picked Pappalli or Napa over Gillett. Lillyman is a more mobile prop, and Morgan can play anywhere in the backline plus the backrow, so I think Gillett does not ofter as much as the power and venom of Pappalli or Napa, particularly Napa.
merv
Guest
Exactly Paul, a bloody disgrace! I don't need to go through the game as you agree with me :)
bobdubbo
Guest
Madrid John, Daley become black after his playing days, and then he only connections is because of his grandmother, that means his parents were not aboriginal. IT IS FUNNY THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE CLAIMING TO BE ABORIGINAL BECAUSE OF THEIR GRANDPARENTS. AT MOMENT THERE IS A MOVEMENT GOING ON IN THE CENTRAL WEST NSW TO STOP PEOPLE LIKE DALEY DOING THIS. ANY WAY CLIFF LYONS SHOULD HAVE BEEN THE 5/8 IN THE INDIGENOUS TEAM. THE PEOPLE WHO SELECTED DALEY TO COACH THE INDIGENOUS TEAM ARE A SELL OUT.
Nova
Guest
The thing I like about the Blues team is it's clearly picked with a specific, simple plan in mind rather than being a hodge podge of whatever players we think can win the game on their own for us. Having said that the biggest factor in the NSW series win wasn't Hayne but Cronk breaking his arm. We are unlikely to be so lucky this time around. Still I reckon we are a chance.
Wolly
Roar Guru
Embarrassing comment? Why because I class somebody purposefully playing at the ball and somebody trying to get out of the way of the ball as different things? I'll stand by my previous comment. Yes the try again part was unnecessary but I'm over hearing some QLD supporters complain about decisions from last years series, yet when NSW supporters would bring up decisions that went against them in the past they would be labelled as whingers.
Superstar superhuman
Guest
Sandow is a qlder
Paul
Roar Rookie
Your kidding yourself mate you've taken one moment out of the game and whinging there was no penalty given. Go through the entire game and you will see plenty of instances like these from both teams.
Bluebag
Guest
We've only got win by one point, and we have the size and the youth. Whether we have the balance right in selections will be revealed on Wednesday night but let's not forget that the Qld stars are getting older and many of them were in the Australian team that was beaten in last year's 4 nations and in this year's Anzac Test. Should be a beauty!
Bluebag
Guest
You do realise Sandow is a Qlder?
merv
Guest
Adrian, it is playing at the ball if you are trying to get out of the way of the ball, the opposite is where you have no movement towards or away from the ball as to your initial movement as you were unsighted or the ball is travelling at speed which would negate your movement. Surely as a commentator here you should understand the concept as to one not playing at the ball. That is just an embarrassing comment on your behalf.