We’re a third of the way through the 2015 AFL season, and it’s time to take stock.
The two Western Australian teams lead the race for the McClelland Trophy, awarded to the team that tops the premiership ladder at season’s end.
Finishing first after the home-and-away rounds is something of a poisoned chalice though, with only five sides going on to win the flag from that position since 2001.
Fremantle have dominated from the front, in the manner of a champion racehorse like Sunline, for those familiar with the New Zealand mare. They apply the pressure hard and early, to put the result beyond doubt, before tending to ease off in the second half.
A couple of times it has almost come unstuck, but they’ve had enough in reserve to remain unbeaten after eight rounds. Every part of the ground is working in perfect harmony, reminiscent of St Kilda under Ross Lyon in 2009, and they have all but secured a top-two spot.
Geelong tripped the Saints up on grand final day that year, but is there a side that can boast those sort of credentials this season?
West Coast aren’t that outfit, but have beaten most of what has been put in front of them this season, and comfortably so. But five of their six wins have come against sides currently in the bottom half dozen on the ladder. The jury is still out, as I wrote last week.
The two New South Wales teams have also been impressive.
Sydney has been building to their best football, as they have done so often over the years. We largely know what to expect from the Swans, and we largely get it. Their win over Hawthorn on the weekend has them with one hand on a top two finish, a position that is theirs to lose now.
Some expected Greater Western Sydney to be knocking on the door for finals this season, and right now they’re laying claim to much more than that. Their best football is slick and explosive off half-back and through the middle, with Jeremy Cameron and Cam McCarthy applying the finishing touches inside fifty.
Simply put, they’re now a bloody good football side. They’ll have a lull at some stage, and have also had a friendly enough draw, but they’ll back themselves to be playing in September.
Collingwood leads the next batch of sides, a cluttered middle band going all the way to 13th or 14th.
The Pies are at their best when their pressure is high, and as long as this is the case they’re always going to be in the contest against most sides with the likes of Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom and Dane Swan getting plenty of football through to Travis Cloke and Jamie Elliott.
Jesse White is maturing into a handy foil for Cloke, and Taylor Adams, Jack Crisp, Tom Langdon and Adam Oxley are leading the second tier of runners.
Adelaide are starting to feel the pinch with important ball-movers going down, the likes of Rory Sloane, Brodie Smith, Matthew Jaensch and Ricky Henderson all missing from Saturday’s loss to the Giants.
The Crows have been inconsistent after opening the season with three wins, and their inability to play four quarters of solid football has cost them. They need to fix this up if they’re going to make it to the finals.
Hawthorn are four and four, a fall from grace after many pundits were tipping an undefeated season post their Round 1 demolition of Geelong.
The Hawks have lost their four games by a combined 24 points, and the lapses in concentration speak of a team that is waiting for September to arrive and the real football to start. They can ill-afford any more slip-ups against middle sides though – their top-two chances are all but gone, and they’ve still got some work to do to ensure a top-four finish.
Richmond have exposed both sides of their fractious personality in 2015, much earlier than they did last season.
Like many of the sides in the middle of the ladder, the Tigers’ best football is top six, and their worst is bottom four. They’ve added some grit to their running game in the last two weeks, but most importantly have addressed deficiencies in their defensive structure, allowing them to absorb more opposition forward pressure.
Essendon are very similar to the Tigers with their best and their worst, with their ball movement being particularly stodgy when down on confidence and form. They look a much better side with Chapman and Cooney in it, giving them a dimension of cleverness that can set them apart.
If we give each of Fremantle, Sydney and Hawthorn a top-four spot come season’s end, the remaining double chance position is still very much up in the air. The Bombers are in the running, and are better than a rough chance to claim it.
Geelong are no longer a premiership threat, but are still in the finals race. They haven’t got close to the really good teams, and have beaten the really bad ones, with some close games against the middle tier.
The Western Bulldogs were the Cinderella story over the first five weeks, but are struggling for consistency of effort as the season progresses, as is always the case with young sides. They’ll continue to have ups and downs, but the future looks a lot brighter than it did six or eight months ago.
North Melbourne and Port were the beaten preliminary finalists last season, but now occupy 12th and 13th on the ladder respectively.
The Kangaroos have been missing the silk of Nick Dal Santo and Daniel Wells, making them look like one-paced trundlers, but the lack of resilience has been the most alarming aspect of their season, with three losses by more than 10 goals.
The Power have lost all confidence, and it is starkly apparent that opposition clubs have worked out how to stifle their most important asset, run. They’re a side that seems to rely on adrenalin, but they can’t get their game going to an extent to draw on it.
Both of North and Port will come hard at some point, but how far away is their best form, and for how long can they sustain it?
Melbourne are progressing, and any spots they can claw up the ladder will be welcomed by a hungry supporter base. They’re making a nice fist of setting themselves for mini-grand finals, all of their victories having the flavour of a side that has specifically targeted a winnable game.
St Kilda have played honest football for the most part, only losing games due to youth, inexperience, and simply not being good enough yet. Those things will change, and perhaps quicker than some might suppose.
Brisbane were staggeringly poor over the first five rounds, but have since corrected to post a couple of wins. The best they can hope for this season is to be at the top end of the bottom six, and aim to land a couple of quality and experienced key position players when trade period comes around.
Gold Coast’s first eight weeks with Rodney Eade at the helm have been an abomination, calling to mind comparisons with Melbourne under Mark Neeld. The Suns have been decimated by so many injuries to their best players, and this year is a write-off. Let’s see what they produce next season.
Carlton are holding up the ladder, and Mick Malthouse doesn’t have long to go based on yesterday’s announcement. They too, have been missing important players, but both spirit and quality are lacking. The situation is dire, but has been identified as such by the club. The road ahead is long.
This has been a season of upsets, and savage momentum swings within games. As it stands, the premiership race looks between only three clubs, but the competition for finals spots is going to be fierce.
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
Eagles 92 and 94 were big and very skilled.Ash McIntosh the best fullback of his era, and the rest of the back six through to Sumich.They'd make sashimi of them
jax
Guest
I stand corrected. Bell was his favourite player and although I can't find mention of him supporting Freo it makes sense that he did after learning about Bell. I was definitely speculating and added this to the comments. "I am only speculating there but stranger things have happened."
TomC
Roar Guru
Dalgety is right. Yeo was a Freo fan. It is absolutely mad to suggest that West Coast let him go because they thought they could get him back. From your language, jax, I'm sure at heart you realise that.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Doesn't really bother me too much, other than I think it's a bit silly. Oh and I think you're making up the bit about him being a WC supporter as a kid and fulfilling a dream playing for them. I had heard somewhere that he was actually a Freo fan (his favourite player being Peter Bell).
jax
Guest
You're being selective by taking words from different comments and blending them into one to suit a purpose. I posted a comment and Johno & FreoAs replied. It's courtesy to reply and that is why I 'bothered'. Why does that seem to bother you and why bother to ask me why I bothered if it doesn't bother you? If you're still unsure I suggest that you read the thread again and start with me having a crack at the Vic media. You should be able to follow it from there.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
First you're saying we can't compare him for two years and then you go ahead and compare him anyway. My question is why bother?
Cameron Rose
Expert
I don't think there's any flak to cop there Michael, in fact I'd say it's self evident that there are only three legitimate premiership chances this year. I'd be extremely surprised if the flag-winner came from outside those three you mention.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I think when the Bombers get going, they're going to be hard to stop. It depends how long they can sustain it of course. I think the Dons can be the fourth best side in it, but you'll find someone that can say that about a few of those teams you mention. Looking at the Tab, Essendon are rated =9th in final 8 betting at $2.25. I think they'll make it ahead of Geelong, and I can easily see them making it ahead of Port, Collingwood, North, and I can see them finishing ahead of Adelaide, GWS and West Coast. I can also see them finishing 10th mind you!
andyl12
Guest
The key fact is that some at Essendon have gotten carried away by the Round 2 result, while others at Essendon have admitted it was irrelevant. So far your losses have been more telling then your wins, especially since the other three wins have been against minnow sides and one of them was nearly pinched from you. Let's talk again after the Richmond game this week, we might both know a bit more then.
Michael huston
Guest
I cop a lot of flack for this, but i think it's between Hawthorn, Sydney and Fremantle. If there was a team playing flag-worthy football (Hell, even Hawthorn and Sydney aren't), then it would be easier to throw another team into the mix. But as Freo are the only ones playing good enough and with a good enough list, and the other two have proven records, I believe it's between them three. I don't mean to spoil the party, but we should know by now to go with what we know. As long as Hawthorn have the best forward line, Sydney the best midfield and Fremantle the best defense, it will be a battle between those three. But if I were to perhaps have a stab at a team that could be next-in-line, I'd actually have to go the two South Australian sides and Essendon. The Bombers can play great footy, they just don't do it enough. And Port and the Crows have too much talent to not achieve at least a surprise minor premiership. It's Freo's flag to lose though. They're not better than the other two, they're just harder to stop. You could have the Hawthorn team of the 80s play them and Freo would still win. The only team that would beat them is the Lions three-peat team, because they could beat them in skill, and they're the only team that can match them in size.
jax
Guest
Crowley won the B&F in 2012. Fyfe won it in 2013 & 2014 so we can't compare B&F's until the end of this season. Fyfe won his MVP last year as a 23yo and Yeo is only 21 so we can't measure him on that for another 2 years. That's why the 4 game sample size seems to be the only bona-fide apples for apples comparison at the moment. I'm open to exploring other metrics but that's the best that i could come up with that was seemed fair. Some players will develop quicker than others, have less injuries, have a stronger 22 to share the workload with or be given greater opportunities earlier and that should be factored in to some degree e.g. Yeo has only played 4 games in the midfield and he would have played in there sooner if he hadn't broken his hand in 2014 or if Ezy & Brown didn't do their knees in 2015 so luck plays a part. TomC told you how much the Lions and their fans rated him so make of that what you will. This isn't an anti-Fyfe or Yeo will better than Fyfe piece, he deserves all the plaudits that he is getting. This is a 'keep an eye on Yeo and see how he develops piece' so don't look into much further than that as I am speculating no doubt. Time will tell if I am right or not. Yes I do have high expectations of him but if I didn't think that he could live up to them I wouldn't have made the call. How many years has Fyfe been running through the centre learning his craft? Yeo has had 4 games so give him a little time and let's see how he goes. "WC can take minimal credit, Yeo fell into their lap after walking away from Brisbane, taking with him a couple of years development with very little return." That seems like a very one-eyed point of view. Who have Freo picked up from other clubs? How about Luke McPharlin, Trent Croad, Tony Modra, Zac Dawson, Danyle Pearce and Colin Sylvia just to name a few. And let's not forget that Freo coerced Lyon from the Saints. You can't have it both ways! I also feel for the Lions. This isn't the first time this has happened to them either. The Lions got Yeo with a pick 30 compensation pick and they traded him for pick 25 which is a little light but pretty reasonable none the less. A first round pick would have been more appropriate so give WC credit for getting the deal done but most of the credit goes to Yeo, not the Lions or WC. He had the x-factor long before the Lions took a look at him. That's like saying Fyfe would be e.g. 60% of the player that he is today if he had being drafted to another club. There are only 2 players in WC history that they didn't want to lose at the trade table and that was Judd and Ebert, not bad for 28 years which speaks volumes about WC. WC and the Blues both won on the Judd trade but WC took a hit on the Ebert trade (picks 28 & 49 for the 21yo) because like Yeo he wanted to go home. So WC lost Ebert but got Yeo, it swings around. And who is to say that WC didn't know exactly what they were doing when they overlooked him in the draft? They interviewed him and they knew that he was a WC fan and that he had always dreamed of playing for them. They would have known how important living in WA with his family was to him. Maybe they deserve a lot of credit for taking a chance and letting him slip only to come back and pull off what might turn out to be one of the best trades WC has ever done, sorry Tom. I am only speculating there but stranger things have happened.. For example, I watched the 2013 GF with the great Russell Ebert and some Port players in Hong Kong. He told me that Ebert was always going to come home to Port after his stint at WC which is why I am not discounting that this may be the case with Yeo. It is naive to think that this stuff doesn't go on, implied or otherwise and if it did happen all credit to WC. WC knows that the go-home factor works in their favour more often than not and they weighed up all of these scenarios long before the 2011 draft. Yeo played for East Freo so he was right under Freo's nose. Maybe Freo decided that there was only room for one Fyfe in their team or maybe they messed up and let him slip through their fingers?
FreoAs
Guest
Two years ago Fyfe was a B&F in a grand final side, the next year he was league MVP. You don't think you might be saddling him up with some over ambitious expectations there bub? Just the weeny sample too, geez why don't we start comparing Alex Pearce to Alex Rance? Also agree with TomC's sentiments, that the Lions are right to feel aggrieved and WC can take minimal credit, Yeo fell into their lap after walking away from Brisbane, taking with him a couple of years development with very little return.
Mark
Guest
I'll eat my hat if they do
Ant
Guest
Cooney- 3.1 against Sydney plus 2 assists. R2- 4 assists. Sunday- 3.1 and 3 assists. I'd say he's good for three a game. No and there's also a handy forward named Winderlich to return as well. No shortage of forwards at Bomberland. McKernan was BOG in the toes and was stiff to be dropped. As for Freo, their gameplan is unsustainable. Which is why they don't play four quarters. Nearly lost to the Bulldogs (should have), beat Essendon by five goals (four directly from free kicks, spin it whatever way you like). Don't let your Hawthorn bias get in the way of facts. Essendon are in a good place with five key players to return. Have a top three defence, and the forward line finally looks functional. Final piece is to clean up the clearances and contested possession. That'll happen with the returns of Hocking and Myers.
jax
Guest
and Yeo can drop back and play on a tall forward like Pav if they need him to. Incredibly versatile, super-quick, massive leap, great pair of hands including overhead, excellent vision and awareness and just an enormously talented player that I am tipping to be one of the next big things in the game within a few years. I forgot to mention that he backed up his 12 CP's in R7 with 11 CP's in R8 so we can see that he is only just starting to work that stat into his game and he obviously has areas of his game to work on but what a baseline to start your career as a midfielder with. It's hard to argue with the stats above and remember, he is 2 years younger than Fyfe and we are measuring him against Fyfe at his all-time best. He is going to be a beauty I'm sure of it.
jax
Guest
I have checked the stats for Fyfe and Yeo for R5 – R8 and this is the result R5 Yeo Fyfe Disposals 25 30 Contested Marks 1 5 Contested Possessions 9 18 Clearances 2 8 Goals 1 1 R6 Yeo Fyfe Disposals 23 27 Contested Marks 2 3 Contested Possessions 4 15 Clearances 1 7 Goals 1 0 R7 Yeo Fyfe Disposals 29 30 Contested Marks 2 3 Contested Possessions 12 20 Clearances 6 10 Goals 4 3 R8 Yeo Fyfe Disposals 15 37 Contested Marks 3 0 Contested Possessions 11 21 Clearances 1 11 Goals 3 1 Totals Yeo Fyfe Disposals 92 124 Contested Marks 8 11 Contested Possessions 36 74 Clearances 10 36 Goals 9 5 Summary Disposals – Fyfe is the winner but Yeo’s numbers include a result of only 15 in R8. CMarks - Yeo almost has as many as Fyfe and hopefully everyone can now see that Yeo is an outstanding contested mark. He isn’t far behind Fyfe at his all-time best for this stat and he’s 2 years younger. CP’s & Clearances - Fyfe is clearly ahead in CP’s and clearances but Yeo got 12 CP's in R7 so he is capable. Priddis, Sheed and other clearance players are expected to get the ball out to players like Yeo while Fyfe is expected to clear it himself. I’d expect Yeo’s numbers to pick up significantly over the coming months and years. Goals – Yeo is a clear winner (nearly double Fyfe). I can see Yeo kicking bags of 5-6 goals many times in his career.
kick to kick
Guest
That would assume that both GWS and the Eagles, so far winning at 75% , fall to 50% for the remainder of the season. Possible but not the most likely outcome. If one of them wins 8 of 14 (57%) from here on they would finish with at least 14 wins.
Me Too
Guest
Maybe i don't - but if Essendon make top four I'll eat my hat. I base my theory on watching footy, having played a little bit when younger - like most of us.
kick to kick
Guest
"the remaining double chance position is still very much up in the air. The Bombers are in the running, and are better than a rough chance to claim it." I don't get this part of an otherwise sound review. Essendon will struggle to make the eight let alone the top four. The bookies have the Bombers 11th in ranking to make the finals and that seems generous. They are 9th at the moment but I'd expect them to fall behind Geelong, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide and maybe the Bulldogs. I can't see them overtaking Richmond, Adelaide , The Giants, West Coast, Hawthorn with only Collingwood vulnerable in the pack just ahead - and I think Collingwood is a more professional outfit though with a young developing list.
jax
Guest
"Comparing Yeo to Fyfe isn’t really comparing apples to apples" I disagree but their is one area that isn't comparable and that is the fact that Yeo has played as a defender in all but 4 of his 48 games and they punch the ball in a contested marking situation don't they? Yeo only played 13 games for WC last year (as a defender) as he broke his hand so for all intents and purposes you are comparing Yeo as a defender at the Lions (weaker team) with Fyfe as a midfielder at Freo (top 4 team) and that's why it isn't applies to apples. Can you compare Fyfe and Yeo on the same stats as you have below but only over the last 4 games so that we can see how that looks? It's a small sample size I know but it is all that we have to judge Yeo on and seeing that Fyfe has been in career best form and is being hailed as the best player in the game I think it's fair to do so. I'd really like to see how a guy 2 years younger than Fyfe is beginning to stack up after 4 games as a midfielder against Fyfe at his very best. I haven't checked this for myself which is why I'm asking. I'm just keen to see a genuine apples to apples comparison between the two of them.