Unless you’re a Martian being held captive in a Siberian jail cell for impersonating Elvis, you’re probably well aware that the 2015 State of Origin series kicks off tomorrow night.
New South Wales and Queensland are once again competing against each other in the interstate classic.
As is quite normal in my world, I’ve been having intense conversations, deliberations and debates with myself as I analyse where the game will be won and lost for both teams.
More 2015 State of Origin:
» State of Origin news
» State of Origin fixtures
» State of Origin teams
» State of Origin 2015: Game 1 preview
» PRICHARD: Maroons to win Origin 1
Following this internal monologue are said thoughts on Game 1 of this year’s Origin series.
NSW will win if…
The halves stand up.
If it feels like NSW fans have been saying this for a while, it’s because they have. The Blues forward pack and outside backs have – for the most part – been pretty good for some time now. However, there have been question marks over the halves pretty much from the day Andrew Johns retired.
This year has been no different, with no NSW playmaker demanding to be selected, which ensured that whomever did get picked was going to face criticism and have questions asked of them.
In the end, the NSW hierarchy went with the much-maligned Mitchell Pearce and the out-of-form Trent Hodkinson. Needless to say ‘much-maligned’ and ‘out-of-form’ are not exactly the adjectives you want placed before your Origin halves’ names.
However, if Hodkinson can kick the goal attempts he’s given, gain plenty of distance on his in-game kicks, and be a rock in defence, then NSW will be more than happy.
Similarly, if Pearce can take on the line, get his outside backs some ball, direct the forwards around the park, and be solid in defence, he will have done his job.
Though there have been concerns raised over the potential lack of points the Blues team have in them, there are more than enough weapons to hurt Queensland where it matters most – the scoreboard – provided those weapons get the ball in areas they can be effective.
The pressure is on the two halves for a number of reasons, but if they can simply do their jobs – rather than be outstanding – NSW will be in with a big chance in Origin 1.
NSW will lose if…
Considering what I just wrote, the easy answer is ‘if the halves don’t stand up’, but I’ll take a slightly different route.
The Blues will almost certainly lose this match if they don’t dominate upfront, particularly the ruck.
Much has been said about Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater being on the wrong side of 30, yet combined with Johnathan Thurston, they still represent the most dangerous spine in rugby league.
If these stars can play behind a pack with plenty of go-forward, and are provided with territory, possession and time with the ball in hand, they will make NSW pay. That’s more of a fact than a prediction: it will happen.
One way to negate their impact is to get in their faces, apply pressure and make them rush their decisions. However, another way to neutralise them in attack is to ensure they are playing behind a well-beaten forward pack.
It’s not rocket science, as every forward pack in every rugby league game looks to get on top their opponents, but if the Blues’ forwards can’t dominate Queensland’s forwards, it will increase the amount of time Cronk and Thurston will have inside the NSW’s half, while also helping Smith to control the game form dummy half.
Which will all spell trouble for NSW.
Queensland will win if…
They can unleash their outside backs.
Billy Slater, Darius Boyd, Greg Inglis, Justin Hodges, Will Chambers.
Josh Dugan, Daniel Tupou, Josh Morris, Michael Jennings, Will Hopoate.
The Blues backline isn’t a disgrace, by any means, but I know which quintet I’d select if you put a gun to my head. To be honest, I wouldn’t even need the pressure of a firearm at my temple to immediately choose the Maroons backline.
Yes, Slater is a little older these days, Boyd is returning from injury, GI seems to be playing through pain, Hodges is slower than a wet week, and Chambers is inexperienced at this level. However, they’re still a dangerous collection of players, and have a little more class their counterparts from NSW.
Yet apart from their class, it’s their firepower in attack that could prove the difference. Queensland certainly look as if they have the potential to score more points than NSW, and if their backs receive quality and quantity ball, that’s exactly what they’ll do.
Queensland will lose if…
Their starting 13 don’t establish a winning platform.
Looking at the Queensland line-up, the starting 13 are as good as it gets in rugby league. Tough, talented, experienced, and above all, winners. It’s a seriously impressive football team, and one of the best you’ll ever see.
However, I have some question marks over their bench.
Michael Morgan, Josh McGuire, Matt Gillett, and Jacob Lillyman are good players, but there is a noticeable drop off from the run-on line-up to the Maroons’ reserves, and this is an area the Blues might be able to exploit.
Trent Merrin, Boyd Cordner, Dave Klemmer and Andrew Fifita form a formidable foursome on the NSW bench, and provide the Blues with a clear advantage over Queensland. When they enter the fray, there will be no drop-off in intensity, passion or ability for NSW, and tired Queensland players will be targeted.
That means the Maroons’ starters will need to ensure they captilise on their advantage of having a better starting line-up than NSW, because they should be wary of having to rely on their bench too much.
Casper
Guest
So in the end Ryan, the maroons bench contributed better than the big boppers who were supposed to steamroll Qld. If ever there been an overrated player get a run for NSW on potential, it's Merrin. Did nothing, just like Cordner. Klezmer tried but is still raw and Fifita never gets up any steam. I continue to marvel at Corey Parkers efforts and Hodges was in the top 4 forwards for his dummy half runs.
FrozenNorth
Guest
I agree 1,000 percent, we always seem to at least match them, if not get on top, but the halves .......... god .... just AWFUL last tackle options and a long kicking game that was appalling.
Mitcher
Guest
Wrong Matth. It'll be won in Sydney! Huh? Huh? Gold by me!!
Mitcher
Guest
As a long suffering blues fan told for near on a decade the maroons are so far ahead of the blues in all facets, they can't possibly be stopped... I'll accept the admission that an injury to one single player can bring this team of eternity to its knees.
Griffo
Guest
Origin always brings out people's biases or intensifies them. The easiest way to tell this is to hear the pregame tips of different people. In regular matches those involved in the participating teams always tip their team obviously but those known to support those teams will sometimes let their better judgement overcome their bias. This almost never happens for origin. Every show I see in the lead up to origin all the NSW alligned people tip the blues and all the QLD alligned people tip the Maroons. No one says, "I hope I'm wrong but I think those other guys will win."
Griffo
Guest
Absolutely right about Morgan. Very quick and so hard to tackle. His 5 tries in the last 2 games have all been of his own making. The broncos knew how he would play but they couldn't stop him. He'll come on fresh in origin against some tiring players and he'll carve them up I reckon.
Raugeee
Guest
I'm a canetoad Dogforlife but the truth is Bill Harrigan reffed 21 Origins for QLD 11 wins NSW 9 and 1 draw. Must admit that game 1 2000 had probably the worst decision ever. The knock-on where the only person in the world who didn't see it was Bill.
Jackson Henry
Roar Guru
It's just one hell of a coincidence. Particularly given 1) the nature of the win, 2) the centrality of his position as halfback and 3) the series was all JT's for the taking. The Chambers comparison isn't really a relevant one, as Chambers doesn't (yet) have the same winning record at state and national level, so the ability to compare isn't there (yet). Plus, Chambers isn't a halfback who owns the result. He's out of rhythm at the moment tho.
farqueue
Guest
Did anyone give the blues a chance last year, two games in qld, star studded qld team . Well I don't believe qld has gotten better so NSW at home where they have won 70% of the time are a damn good chance. NSW to win game 1 in a close one, qld to win game 3 easily and whoever wins in Melbourne wins the series.
The eye
Guest
Dont get me wrong Jh,Cooper has given me so many 'wow' moments especially with his kicking game and has had an absolute sensation of a career..but to consider him as the overwhelming reason they got 32 points and victory in that game is vastly over rating his individual performance and nigh on negligent of his team mates particularly JT and real MOM Corey Parker.. I mean,Will Chambers only played game 3 as well..that a spectacular coincidence as well ?
JB
Guest
Agree I expect Morgan to be very dangerous if he can snipe some gaps with slater after the big nsw boys Fifita woods klezmer and Tamou tire, plenty of strike power in that qld backline. Nsw will need 60% possession I think. I can't see them converting opportunities like the qld side.
Kaks
Roar Guru
They are/were damaging forwards which did help QLD win games, but the NSW forwards werent slackers themselves. Imagine how Scott, Civinoceva and Price would be regarded if the QLD backline was not able to convert the fine work they did
Paul
Roar Rookie
Not a fan of Will Hopoate but he's never let NSW down in the past. Maybe him up against an underdone Boyd, who's only played 2 games this year, isn't all doom and gloom.
Ra
Guest
I'm looking forward to seeing the QLD bench lift its game. Michael Morgan, has been a wiz up north, Josh McGuire, deserved a spot in the 4nations side, he was so head and shoulders above most, I've always been on edge when Matt Gillett played the Kiwis. We're lucky Aussie only see him as a bench player he's so gifted at sniffing a try, and Jacob Lillyman is Mr Cart It Up man himself; Klemmer may arrive some day, Fafita runs across the park, but I'm happy to sit on the wire fence and just watch the Aussies scrap it out amongst yourselves...
Jay C
Roar Guru
Am I the only one who doesn't mind a bit of bias in an Origin Call? It is completely unacceptable in the regular season. But I think it works well for State of Origin. Everyone picks a side. I think that's the whole point of Origin. It's one time of year I don't mind the commentators ripping into each other.
Jay C
Roar Guru
Blasphemy. Moose is a deadest legend.
Carlos
Guest
I don't know about that Scott, Civinoceva and Price had all over NSW nearly every game
Kaks
Roar Guru
Dont get me started on Lewis. As bad as Gus is at least he doesnt shout "Go you good thing" live on a broadcast when a QLD player makes a linebreak. And the problems dont end there. During a league game he will be biased towards QLD teams or QLD players in non QLD teams. I have never heard a more unprofessional and biased commentator in any sport.
Kaks
Roar Guru
NSW have won the forward battle or at least been even in plenty of games over the last 9 years. The forwards are not the problem, its always been the backs /halves. If Qld go into the advantage line they will more often than not score points. NSW on the other hand have lost games by failing to unlock the QLD defence.
Carlos
Guest
I'd say Blues can win this, but I don't see this being a team that can run in a lot of tries to do it. In recent years blues victories have been by a few points. Hodgekinson seemed a steady kicker last year...but if he cops a knock to the knee, is cramping, sprays a couple or god forbid has to leave the field and it comes down to a kick from the corner to equalise with 10 minutes to go. Farrah will be taking it... If Moylan was 5/8 or Richards was on the wing we'd have some options. Its an unnecessary risk IMO. QLD have Thurston, Parker, and Smith they're not going to miss any. The other point worth mentioning is kickers have weaknesses that can be minimised by having optional kickers.