It’s been 104 months since the Demons last played finals football. In the nine years since Brock McLean led Melbourne to that not so fateful elimination final victory over the Saints on a Friday night at the MCG, the Dees have won 41 out of 185 games.
They’ve had seven different coaches in the past eight years, after having five in the 26 years prior.
From the nine-game losing streak to start 2007 to the 186-point loss to Geelong to ‘tank-gate’, Melbourne’s misery has been as diverse as it’s been consistent.
And yet, when the final siren went at the MCG last Sunday afternoon, none of that meant anything.
It was all just faint noise, drowned out by the cheers of the red and blue faithful. All that mattered was ‘Melbourne 15.13 103, Western Bulldogs 9.10 64′.
Tex Winter has a quote that all sports fans owe it to themselves to remember: “you’re only a success at the moment you do a successful act.” Success is multiform, and it doesn’t just exist in the context of a bigger picture. It often operates on a moment-to-moment basis, and when Jesse Hogan rises up in the deep forward pocket, all of a sudden the past disappears underneath him, and all you can see is a kinder future.
The Demons aren’t out of the woods yet by any stretch, but they’re out of hell, and that’s a start. They’re 3-5 (one game behind Hawthorn!), which sounds more impressive when you consider that Melbourne won just six out of 44 games across 2013 and 2014. Nine wins this year is a realistic goal and that would be Melbourne’s most in a season since 2006.
There are no guarantees of success with this Demons team, but sports fans don’t need guarantees. We just need hope, which is to say we just need not to be Carlton. For the first time in nine years, Melbourne has hope.
Gone is the Mark Neeld era and his losing press conferences where he would unwittingly channel Leonardo DiCaprio at the end of the The Departed, a mixture of nervous insecurity and beaten resignation, almost indifferent to inevitability.
In Paul Roos, the Demons have a coach with a proven track record, and more importantly, a strong enough reputation to eschew quick fixes and focus on long-term success. Where Neeld brought perspiration, Roos brings perspective.
The list is finally a cause for optimism. Key position commodities are the AFL’s plutonium, and in Tom McDonald and Jesse Hogan, the Demons potentially have two All-Australian pillars to their spine lined up for the next decade. After misfiring on top 20 draft picks, Melbourne has improved its young stocks to create the semblance of an exciting core.
Dom Tyson has had a down start to the season, but his talent and class are undeniable. Angus Brayshaw showed why he was the #3 pick on the weekend, meshing speed and nous with an aptitude for contested ball. Jeremy Howe is making a strong claim to be Ben Affleck’s understudy in Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and mature rookie Aaron Vandenberg looks to be the steal of last year’s draft, up to 13th in the league in tackles.
Jack Viney and Christian Salem have been on the sidelines, but they’ll be back, and their potential is tantalising. Christian Petracca is waiting in the wings.
Inspirational skipper Nathan Jones continues to be at the heart of everything. The evolutionary Todd Viney with more polish, Jones is Melbourne’s best player and an elite midfielder. But it’s Jones’ signature that might prove to be more symbolic than any of his many hard ball gets.
Coupled with the Roos hiring, re-signing Jones to a five-year deal last December may prove to be the turning point for the Melbourne Football Club. In the aftermath of Tom Scully and James Frawley deciding they would rather play elsewhere, Jones’s commitment was a powerful statement – a top-tier player in the competition seeing enough hope at Melbourne to want to finish his career there.
Of course, it’s not all roses. Notwithstanding an encouraging performance on the weekend, Jimmy Toumpas remains about as inspiring as his last name is intimidating. Jack Watts might be his own article at this stage. In terms of comparisons with other number one picks, I’m sure Melbourne fans would like Watts to be something vaguely resembling Brendon Goddard, but instead he’s closer to a poor man’s facsimile of Josh Fraser and Travis Johnstone.
Watts is unquestionably skilled but he’s got the physical aggression of a paper clip. He doesn’t need to find form in the VFL, he needs to watch Die Hard 2: Die Harder on repeat to get some conviction into his game.
I’m not sure there’s premiership-level talent in Melbourne’s current core, but at the same time I’m not sure there’s that level of talent in the cores of 13 other teams either. The AFL is a loaded dice; a game of blackjack where you go bust unless you hit 21. Only one of 18 teams wins each year and there are nine teams that haven’t won a flag in the past fifteen years.
But sport isn’t invariably about premierships. It’s about the journey that you hope will lead to one. Hope, not certainty, is the true currency of sport and now the Demons have that. Their journey has started.
Inevitably, there will be setbacks along the way like the drubbing to Hawthorn a fortnight ago. A team that lost 17 games by 10 goals or more across 2013 and 2014 doesn’t become a contender overnight.
But Melbourne took one small step forward in their journey last Sunday afternoon and they’re on track to take many more in the coming months and years. Melbourne fans should take pride, joy and inevitably at times, solace, in these steps, regardless of whether or not they end up leading to the Holy Grail.
If they do get there though, good for them. They’ll have earned it.
Brian
Guest
I'd go Blood Diamond, Wolf of Wall Street, Titanic and Departed.. Dees have so many draft picks. Hawthorn and Sydney fans have September, Melbourne fans own December.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
I wrote about them a few weeks back clayts: http://www.theroar.com.au/2015/04/14/improper-projections-just-how-far-can-the-western-bulldogs-rise/ One game doesn't mean one side's list is in a better position than another, even if the two play each other.
clayts
Guest
Hold up. What makes Footscray's core 'resemble something of a finals side' again? They were just shown up completely and utterly by a side that as you say is years behind them. Their core doesn't have a ruckman, and at some point they are about to lose 2 of their best players in Boyd (senior) and Murphy. Murphy was by FAR and away their best player on Sunday and I kept thinking to myself what would have happened if he didn't play. Yes, they Libba to come back in who should lessen the loss of losing Boyd (as another inside mid) and they seem to have a talented FF (who was absolutely toweled up by Fitzpatrick playing his first game as an AFL defender mind you) but who of their other core players are that much better than Melbourne's core? Bontempelli is good. So too is Tyson. Wallis is good. So too is vandenBerg. Johannisen as shown glimpses, so too has Salem. Have I gone through enough of them? Dalhaus is good, so too is Garlett. Then you have Hogan, Brayshaw, Viney and Petracca (hasn't played a game admittedly but surely we all agree he looks the goods). Vince will be there for a few more years too. Stringer seems decent but no better than any of the players I have mentioned from the dees. Im doing all this off the top of my head so if there are one or two I've missed so be it, but that doesn't all of sudden make them years ahead of where Melbourne are at. One area Melbourne need to fix is their ruck division. Spencer tries hard (and certainly smashed what the Dogs served up) but is 3rd rate at best. Gawn is forgotten about and Jamar has mysteriously fallen out of favour for some unknown reason. They also still need to get rid of some dead wood (but if you look at the list in the middle of the Neeld era and compare it to now, you're jaw will hit the floor) such as Rohan Bail and Matt Jones. Matt Newton and Riley are the other fringe players that could do with an upgrade but pretty much every AFL list has players of their ilk. I think most of the problems at Melbourne stem from being bashed around for so long and it's between the ears, especially against the top sides. Look at this year. Melbourne smashed Gold Coast when they weren't meant to. Smashed GW$ for a half and then fell off a cliff. Went over to Adelaide and gave the Crows a scare before getting beaten by a better side but certainly not disgracing themselves. Smashed Richmond. Then came the top sides and it seemed Melbourne lined up and were coached to play like they knew they were going to lose from the start. There was none of the run n gun or 'normal' game plan at all. Then they smashed the dogs when they weren't meant to. This week is the real test I reckon. Seems to me like the dees are beating sides around them while still being quite a way off even thinking they can beat the good sides. Port have a few big outs and the dees get back Viney and Jetta. It's mentioned below, but something that rarely gets afforded to melbourne in the media is the fact that injuries have been a factor. This also highlights the lack of depth the dees have but i think another off season just about fixes that. Viney was a pretty big loss and having him back should shuffle everyone else down a rung so players like Brayshaw and vandenBerg all of a sudden have less pressure on them. Jetta was in career best form before he went down too.
Jay Croucher
Expert
Wolf of Wall Street for me boys, as Leo's best performance, followed by Blood Diamond and The Departed. Would be remiss not to bring up The Aviator and Catch Me If You Can too, a pair of great performances that often get lost in a resume of deliciousness.
TomC
Roar Guru
Nice article, Jay. I was very negative about them at the start of the year, but enough is going right to feel that they're heading in the right direction. Last year they gave a lot of gametime to experienced players--too much, I thought--- but this year it seems the likes of Hogan, Salem Brayshaw are making bigger strides. Viney looked much improved in his brief appearances before getting injured. A lot more composed. That said, they still have a lot of work to do recruiting the players that will take them into premiership contention. Half a dozen promising youngsters isn't enough.
Jay Croucher
Expert
No question Ryan. It goes to show how far back they were that just 'not losing every week by 10 goals' is a significant step forward. Demons fans I know were genuinely pleased last season when the Dees 'only' lost by 6 goals. Two years ago Melbourne had absolutely nothing. They were left obsessing over why guys like Tapscott, Blease and Watts weren't better and why someone like Jack Trengove had dropped off so much. Now Watts and Trengove are largely ancillary to the conversation, whatever they can get from them is just a bonus. Dees fans can point to Hogan, McDonald, Viney, Brayshaw, Vandenberg, Tyson, Salem and, eventually, Petracca, as a legitimate source of hope. It's not a whole lot, but it's something, and that's a start.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Yep, in my top 10-15 of all time I'd have thought, with Leo's anchoring performance a big part for me.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
The injury story is probably a little under the radar, isn't it? Viney is a jet and Petracca looks ready made. D Cross and B Vince have been shrewd additions, too, and will help steward the young blokes through. Their key position stocks are looking pretty good come to think of it; maybe a little light on key defenders but as I keep saying the only two sides that have anything resembling depth at that position are Hawthorn and Fremantle. As above I completely agree with the premise of your piece (and as always really enjoy the way you've crafted it), but I'm wary that they are coming from so far back that it'll take time, and continued good management, to build to something greater.
Jay Croucher
Expert
Fair points Ryan, the inside 50 stat is definitely alarming, especially considering they were far and away last in the league in 2014 too. I think that's a reflection of a midfield that as currently constructed is one of the two or three worst in the comp. But I think there is upside in that group. Dom Tyson has been injured, Jack Viney has been out for six weeks and Angus Brayshaw and Aaron Vandenberg have played a combined 16 games of AFL footy. Some better health and experience for those guys and the return of Petracca next year, and you've got something. Are they going to be the second coming of Voss-Black-Lappin-Akermanis? Probably not, but with another top ten draft pick this year they can create a decent core.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Agree on The Departed - I love that film. Solid performances across the board, brilliant story, and an awesome ending.
Cameron Rose
Expert
The Departed is Leo's finest performance in my opinion, and more Oscar-worthy than some of the films he was nominated for. His turn in Titanic is also under-appreciated. Die Hard with a Vengeance is my favourite of the series, with not much between Die Hard 1 and 2. The last one was an abomination, one of the worst movies of its year.
Wilson
Roar Guru
Agree I think there is Light for the Demons Fans but it need to be still moving forward for the fans to be kept happy. with the team they have will the win a GF in the next 5 year I don't think so but they could well be in the eight.
Tony Loedi
Roar Guru
The point is theirs finally light at the end of the tunnel for long suffering Dees fans. Certainly the coaching handover will be crucial, hopefully the foundations will be solid enough for a smooth transition, unlike at Collingwood post Malthouse
PartTimeZombie
Guest
I agree with you Ryan, I'm not convinced Melbourne are much more than a lower mid table team, but that's a start. I could not see where their goals were going to come from this season, after last years points per game of about 60, the worst in the competition, but they seem to be attacking with something like a plan at times this year. I'm sure they'll take a few more pastings this season, but might finish with something like hope if they can continue to develop. Who know where they might be in 5 years time with some more high draft picks and maybe the odd quality free agent?
Ryan Buckland
Expert
I see what you're saying here, but I'm still yet to be convinced that the Dees have anything close to a list that can get them off the canvas. Paul Roos is turning lemons into lemonade right now, and it's as much a product of a super conservative gameplan as improvement amongst the playing group. So far this year, the Dees have averaged 41 inside 50s per game - four behind Carlton and a full 10 behind the AFL average. The only thing saving them on the defensive end is a very good conversion rate; they're letting opponents score on just 42% of I50s and as I say that is as much scheme as talent. When I've been thinking about Melbourne recently, I can't help but compare them to the team they conquered on the weekend in the Dogs. The core of players coming in at Footscray do resemble something of a finals side in the years ahead; Melbourne are still six or seven moves away. As you say, the public shaming has sort of stopped now for Melbourne. But they are still a few years, and a bit more list turnover, away from climbing into purgatory. The handover to the new Head Coach in the next couple of years is going to be oh-so-crucial.