Mixed results for the Experts in Round 16, with everyone stuttering upfront with the Hurricanes, and then coming home to varying degrees of strength.
My stutter with the Hurricanes involved a powerplay, unfortunately, pushing it into near-choking territory.
Elisha takes the honour this week, by virtue of his superior for-and-against record, though I can claim something of a moral victory for the round with just the one wrong pick. (But what a wrong pick!)
Digger again proved the leading the Expert panel is far harder than what his Canes have enjoyed this season, yet finding his reign at the top short lived. But his confidence remains high, happily pointing out during the week that he is still leading. Which is true-ish.
The big Round 17 questions: Are the Highlanders conceding this one, resting their All Blacks? Is a doubles ticket at a Force game a waste of money? Is the sunshine what brings back the best of the Rebels?
Can the Blues end the 2015 Crusade? Will the Chiefs see Red in the worst possible way? Will the Waratahs win by 20 or 30 in Bloem? Can the Lions finish their season as South African conference champs?
Elisha Pearce
Tips: Tips: Hurricanes, Brumbies (PP), Bulls, Crusaders, Reds, Waratahs, Stormers.
“Due to my excellent results last week I get the honour of being wrong first this week. I’ll take that as a compliment.
“The Hurricanes let me down last week and will probably do so again, but I’m picking them over the Highlanders. Take the Brumbies over the Force (Cummins needs a big game here with Wallabies wing players opposite, this is a big week for him) and they’ll nurse my powerplay for a second week in a row.
“I’m taking the Bulls in Melbourne, but I’m not confident either way there; two almost teams. The Crusaders earn themselves one last chance and even greater heartbreak with a win over the Blues.
“The Reds sneak home against a depleted Chiefs at home. Take the Stormers on their own patch; it’s one they have to win if they’re pretending to be contenders. The same goes for the Waratahs away to the Cheetahs; they need to win this to keep up the charade.”
Brett McKay
Tips: Hurricanes, Brumbies (PP), Rebels, Crusaders, Reds, Waratahs, Stormers Lions.
It’s occurred to me this week that my hopes for a late run home for the panel win are fading. If they were ever alive at all, you might rightly ask. So this week, it’s a mix of gut feel, reasonable logic, and outright guessing.
The return for Beauden Barrett and the removal of three All Black Highlanders leaves me with no choice but the take the Hurricanes in Napier. They probably should’ve won this game anyway, but goings on this week just tips the scales their way. Brumbies over the Force seems obvious enough to lay down the powerplay.
Rebels to beat the Bulls. Don’t really know why. And though I did raise the idea of the Blues ending the Crusade on Tuesday, the Crusaders still have too much to play for to drop a game now. Reds to beat the Chiefs, and with no real reason why here, either, especially with Liam Messam and Brodie Retallick back.
If the Waratahs don’t win well in Bloem, then they’re not finals worthy, while as much as I want to the Lions fairytale to live on, the Stormers’ class will win out.
But then, I’ve got nothing to lose now in this comp, so bugger it. Lions!
Paddy Effeney
Tips: Hurricanes, Brumbies (PP), Rebels, Crusaders, Chiefs, Waratahs, Stormers.
“Back in the lead, eh? What a terribly lovely surprise. I also note that Elisha is in third place. Swell chap, I hear.
“Picking the Hurricanes/Highlanders is harder than getting Michael Cheika into full Hello Kitty cosplay. I’ll go with the safe bet of the Canes.
“The Brumbies should towel up the Force, so they get my powerplay, as should the Crusaders the Blues. I’m exceptionally tempted to pick the Rebels, so I will. Carn the Rebs!
“I’m also very tempted to back the Reds in Brisbane, but I’ll play it safe with the Chiefs. Waratahs and Stormers round out my week.”
Diggercane
Tips: Hurricanes (PP), Brumbies, Bulls, Crusaders, Chiefs, Waratahs, Stormers.
“Fair to say that after last week’s cereal shenanigans I now have toast for breakfast. I tried asking the dog by speaking each team name to him and watching how he reacts. I thought I was on to something until I realised he just wanted to go outside to conduct his business. I am on my own obviously.”
“Well, no reason for me to stop now so the Hurricanes at home over the Highlanders, while I have to back the Brumbies after the Force rather upset me with their performance against the Reds. The Stormers and Lions shapes as a beauty, and I am picking the bad weather due to home-ground advantage.
“For the rest of my picks I am going for the ‘whichever team has the most to play for’ theory, abandoning my ‘never pick more than three away games’ theory. So, the Bulls have more to play for than the Rebels, so do the Chiefs over the Reds (although I suspect that is the Kiwi in me rather than sound logic; moving on) and the depleted Crusaders over the depleted Blues. The Waratahs should also have too much for the Cheetahs.
“For the powerplay, I am going to break my ‘never put it on a New Zealand derby game’ theory and give it to the Hurricanes, dunno why. If nothing else, it’s to stop Brett from getting any satisfaction from choosing to powerplay them again and making me nervous.”
Brett’s note: Boo!
Spiro Zavos
Tips: Highlanders, Brumbies, Rebels, Crusaders (PP), Chiefs, Waratahs, Stormers.
“This is the time in the tournament when the finals bound teams make their drive towards putting themselves in a position to win the Super Rugby title.
“So I am picking teams that I think will be in the finals. But given the way that there have been upsets galore this year, I am not confident about my picks for this round, or for the finals.”
The summary
| Round 17 | Diggercane | Patrick Effeney | Brett McKay | Elisha Pearce | Spiro Zavos |
| Overall | 84 | 84 | 78 | 82 | 80 |
| Last week | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| HUR v HIG | Hurricanes | Hurricanes | Hurricanes | Hurricanes | Highlanders |
| FOR v BRU | Brumbies | Brumbies | Brumbies | Brumbies | Brumbies |
| REB v BUL | Bulls | Rebels | Rebels | Bulls | Rebels |
| BLU v CRU | Crusaders | Crusaders | Crusaders | Crusaders | Crusaders |
| RED v CHI | Chiefs | Chiefs | Reds | Reds | Chiefs |
| CHE v WAR | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs |
| STO v LIO | Stormers | Stormers | Lions | Stormers | Stormers |
| POWERPLAY | Hurricanes | Brumbies | Brumbies | Brumbies | Crusaders |
| BYE | Sharks | ||||
ThugbyFan
Guest
Hi Brett and ZZ x 2 and dad Spiro, I just got home and heard the terrible news of Jerry Collins and his wife. I remember watching him play for the Canes and AB; what a beast! Tough as nails but great to watch and I have never heard a bad word about him (and this from an aussie fan). Is there any chance of a Roar article on the life and rugby times of JC, The Terminator? Be it one of the regular writers or a guest. A quick search of youtube found heaps of video showing Jerry Collins. Some are https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1EAykghqwo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAEhpxzzR1w https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CK0-9DpP5MA and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3w4h8c8e5Y (the last one shows one shot that would most likely earn him a red card these days, just shows how the administrators have evolved).
RobC
Roar Guru
Excellent RT! Looking forward to your visit. There's a few tragics here who can join us, if you're inclined. Finance guys mostly. You can find me on LinkedIn or facebook. The only other Rob Cayzer there, who is a policy advisor to the PM of UK. The other one is me :) btw Im like SBW, which means my drinking days are behind me. Except Im 20 years older, 10x less fit and less talented. In any case, bring the bottle. Im can assure you, you will enjoy it. I've got the cigars :)
Brett McKay
Expert
They're just trying to compete with the parochial Aussie types, Splinter! :lol:
Brett McKay
Expert
you will be sorry DH - I'm 7/8 on the Lions this season, and 100% in three starts when in the minority or on my own!! Now, if you'll excuse me, I have other straws to clutch...
Lano
Roar Guru
good-o.
splinter
Guest
Hi Brett love it when you rattle the Stormers cage the beloved team will have to play if they lose there will be a deathly silence on the Roar if they win you will hear the bugles and drums.
Die hard
Roar Rookie
I was picking the Lions for an upset away but I see that Brett is the only one else. So now I have changed mine to the Stormers. Sorry Brett.......
Patrick Effeney
Editor
Yup - we'll roll it out over NRL and Super Rugby for next season!
Brett McKay
Expert
Could be a good shout, TM...
Taylorman
Guest
Ok... Blues and Highlanders could upset if their replacements play like men possessed. Often everyone forgets to tell players that they're actually seconds and when you get a few of them starting at once, with absolutely nothing to lose, all sorts of things can happen on the day. Saders and canes will be expecting to win and canes will be hurting after last week but this is the sort of party spoiler scenario that can happen. Watch that banana I say...
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Right Rob ... but to be honest I am still hurting over Tuipulotu and Luatua being out for the season (particularly the big 2nd rower) - so many injuries and not only has their depth has been tested, Sir JK has put a couple of rookies in as well. Aside from that, the one side I always want to see the Blues beat is the Crusaders ..and yes mate, I will definitely be barracking for the Auckland based side ... Hmmm to win by 1-12 points odds are $5 at the moment ... not going to jump in just yet though! Actually I think the Reds might be a better bet against the Chiefs who have also been smashed with injuries late in the season .. Reds had to overcome that earlier. We shall see.. Talking about "Red"... when I come up to KL I will bring a bottle of 2013 Jack Mann Cab Sav with Melbec blend to split with you .... rated the No 1 wine by Dekanter Magazine but that is embargoed for the moment until the wine is officially released ... it is a yummy drop!
Brett McKay
Expert
Righto, so who's got what drastically different tips to share this week?
Chas
Guest
I just wonder if the Highlanders - the guys actually playing that is - might be a little p$$ed off at all the 'no all blacks no chance' stuff. They seem to play for each other and so on, I expect them to give this game a big shake.
Sam
Guest
Hurricanes and Blues to tank it for their brothers to move up the ladder....
Brett McKay
Expert
Yeah, we've talked about that for next season, Lano. It's a great idea, I think, really adds something. Though I don't know I need further competition! :cry:
Harry Jones
Expert
Stormers 15 Cheslin Kolbe, 14 Dillyn Leyds, 13 Juan de Jongh, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Seabelo Senatla, 10 Demetri Catrakilis, 9 Nic Groom, 8 Duane Vermeulen (captain), 7 Siya Kolisi, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Manuel Carizza, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Steven Kitshoff Substitutes: 16 Michael Willemse, 17 Oli Kebble, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Jean Kleyn, 20 Nizaam Carr, 21 Louis Schreuder, 22 Kurt Coleman, 23 Jaco Taute Lions 15. Andries Coetzee, 14. Ruan Combrinck, 13. Harold Vorster, 12. Alwyn Hollenbach, 11. Courtnall Skosan, 10. Elton Jantjies, 9. Faf de Klerk, 8. Warren Whiteley (captain), 7. Warwick Tecklenburg, 6. Jaco Kriel, 5. Franco Mostert, 4. Martin Muller, 3. Julian Redelinghuys, 2. Armand van der Merwe, 1. Schalk van der Merwe Substitutes: 16. Malcolm Marx, 17. Corne Fourie, 18. Ruan Dreyer, 19. Robert Kruger, 20. Kwagga Smith, 21. Dillon Smit, 22. Marnitz Boshoff, 23. Howard Mnisi
Chivas
Guest
You know what is really sad. I awoke in the middle of the night witg a few things on my mind. Looked at this site to take mind off things... something I'm doing less and less these days as it becomes a giant p55ing contest lacking in both originality, humour or any real rugby commentary. What little there is, is being lost in a sea of repitive hyperbole. Anyway I digress. I read Brett's article as he seems to be the only commentator not encouraging boorish comments and found your response. I had a chuckle and on that note went back to sleep. I then dreamed about Brock Harris, Steven Kristhoff and Effen Paddy., Damn you Armand. I liked you better when you were talking about the AB's! :-)
taylorman
Roar Guru
Yes JK had to scan the kindy's for a couple of players I'd heard. I'd prefer Saders win this one, particularly based on last weeks performance which, with their players back, makes them a title contender if they match or better that effort, like the Reds, everything falling into place finally.
Akari
Roar Rookie
This must have been written with gritted teeth, taylorman. I'd like to think that the young boys will try and show what they can do in the first 30 minutes. Although, I've never heard of Matt Vaega, Airi Hunt and Chris Vui, I look forward to seeing them play. As great a player and gentlemen he is, I just don't know why Mealamu is on the bench when the opportunity should have been given to a potential player for the 2016 season.
Digby
Roar Guru
It does appeal as a tough one, will be interesting. Have to say I am surprised that Marty is starting ahead of Damian for the Chiefs, as I was surprised that Pollard is not in the Bulls considering their season is on the line. Some odd calls in my view.