There are a few observations I have made from the recently concluded series in the Caribbean.
Australia look in good shape. Steve Smith can do no wrong, Mitchell Starc is growing into a Test bowler and Josh Hazlewood looks the business. Oh, as for Adam Voges – good on him.
Now that’s out of the way, the inevitable pre-Ashes phoney war can get under way and already there have been pieces in the English press about…well, not a great deal really.
‘We want to win’, ‘it’ll be a tough series’, ‘we haven’t mentioned the ‘A’ word’.
Riveting stuff.
It should go without saying that the tourists will start, rightly, as favourites and England will have to play very well to stand a chance of winning. Nobody saw 2013-14 coming, just as very few would’ve predicted how 2005 panned out so I’ll put my flag into the not quite sure camp for the time being.
What I do know, and a couple of articles on this site have already touched on the subject, is that Darren Lehmann is going to have a tricky selection dilemma with regard to his choice of seam bowlers when the real action begins.
Ronan O’Connell believes Mitchell Starc is destined to miss out and Dennis Freedman reckons Ryan Harris doesn’t currently feature in Australia’s first choice XI.
Both have offered well thought out arguments but I beg to differ. When the men in green stroll out at Cardiff’s Swalec Stadium early next month they should do it without Mitchell Johnson.
Of course, there are a few of factors such as fitness, form and conditions to take into account but assuming all of these are in order, Johnson should be the man to mix the cordial. And here’s why.
Harris, if fit and this is the most concerning of the variables, is the best seam bowler Australia have got. Accurate, incisive and with a first-rate record, the Queenslander – if his body hasn’t decided to donate itself to medical science just yet – should be the first name on the teamsheet.
After captain Clark of course.
Going on what he’s produced so far in his embryonic career, Hazlewood should be a banker. Decent pace, aggressive without giving too much away, he’s the Peter Siddle deluxe edition and if someone is needed to do the donkey work, he’s your man.
Starc, now he’s not being treated as a little boy who isn’t capable of playing two games in a row, is gold dust. Left-arm, quick and consistently swinging the ball, there isn’t a great deal not to like and if he can’t get in the team then something is amiss.
Shane Watson’s medium pace – dobbers if you’d like the English term – will be a useful option and Nathan Lyon isn’t looking like being usurped by Fawad Ahmed quite yet. That leaves no place for Johnson.
The tattooed paceman needs speed in the surfaces if he is to be a significant weapon, something he is unlikely to get at Cardiff, Lord’s, Trent Bridge, Edgbaston and The Oval.
England may not go down a similar route to 2013 when the pitches were left to dry out but it won’t make that much difference. English pitches aren’t quick, end of.
Secondly, no tress have been pulled up in his few Tests in this country. Yes, you can use statistics to prove whatever you want and Shane Warne wasn’t a mug just because he struggled in India, but Johnson won’t be the same over here. And while he had the wood over the English last time out, I’m not sure that means the same will ring true.
Alastair Cook ruled in 2010-11 but not in 2013. One doesn’t necessarily follow the other.
Thirdly, can he be used in the most effective manner, that is, very short and sharp spells, if the fitness of Harris can’t be guaranteed? That’s a big ask and if volume of overs is a criteria then Starc could well be a better bet.
So there you go, only one Mitchell required and it isn’t the obvious.
AussieinNZ
Guest
You cannot be serious! Leaving out the worlds best big time bowler who has psychologically scarred most of the English squad?
Howzat
Guest
Oh please Adelaide has never been known as a fast or bouncy pitch. It's never been know as anything other than a batsman's paradise yet Johnson was devastating on that pitch.
AR
Guest
There's another key thing that this article doesn't consider... Mitch Johnson's batting basically makes him an all-rounder. I realise this article focuses on the bowling credentials of the Mitches in English conditions, but if it's a line-ball decision (and I think it is), then MJ gets the nod for his batting at the death.
Bretto
Guest
When you consider Shane Watson only scores runs when they are not required, how about playing Johnson instead of him. Johnson, Harris, Starc, and Hazlewood can all bat. How many runs would you bet Shane Watson on making if it was your own hard earned cash on the line. Most people would suggest 20-30 if they were being charitable. Playing Harris, Starc, Hazlewood, and Johnson (and Lyon) means all of the bowlers can go full tilt all day.
Andrew
Guest
It's a tough call but Starc will sit out 1st test if Rhino is ready to go. MJ will be picked along with Hazelwood and Rhino. With 2 tight fast bowlers not giving much away will put pressure on the batsmen which Johnson can use to do the damage from the other end. Lyon will complement this attack very well with the only concern is our batting. If that holds up and gets us enough runs then our bowlers will do the job to get us over the line.
A
Guest
I agree with this article 100%. But M Johnson will be picked no matter what. That is so unfair to M Starc.
DJ Brand
Roar Rookie
MJ will definitely start absolutlely no chance of him not playing unless injured, Eng team still carrying scars from MJ's beasting during last ashes. MJ helped to scare most of their tail out last time. If he doesnt start, Eng batters will be jumping for joy as the other 3 dont have the same fear factor. Hazlewood will also start, you have to reward him for not putting a foot wrong and he's style will suit Eng pitches. That leaves choice btw Rhino & Starc. Unless he breaks down in warmup games, i reckon Rhino will get the nod. Boof is immensely loyal to some of the incumbents, to the point of blatant blind favortism in the case of Watto who gets picked regardless of form with bat and ball and not that Rhino is teachers pet like Watson but provided he gets thru warmup games fit, Rhino will get chance to start first test as reward for past service. So Starc will miss out because of that and also 2 left arm fast bowlers might be overkill and despite his improvement, he still has a hint of inconsistency. He's still capable of bowling unplayable wicket taking deliveries but he can be expensive and struggle to get his radar locked in. As someone else mentioned above, the bowling isnt the issue as any combo of 4 is capable of taking 20 wickets but the batting remains fragile and capable of collapse. Our batting relies on Smith's runs and the Tail making crucial innings saving runs which usually hide another poor top6 batting performance.
Rellum
Roar Guru
If Mitch Starc can develop a ball that rears up around the head then MJ is gone. I tjink MJ will still play in the Ashes as the Poms are still concerned enough about him that at least the boys in slips can chirp in about how fast he is to get into pommy batsmens heads.
JGK
Roar Guru
Lyth, Cook, Ballance, Stokes, Ali, Broad, Anderson
Jameswm
Guest
7 lefties? Cook, the other opener?, Ballance?, not Bell or Root, who's no.6?, Buttler, Anderson, not Broad from memory. That many lefties is like music to Nathan Lyon's ears.
b
Guest
Johnson does do better on fast, bouncy wickets, but Johnson also has the uncanny ability to keep taking wickets even when not in form or when the pitch or ball aren't doing a lot. The most surprising comment in this article was not the idea of dropping Johnson, but the reference to Watson's bowling? Seriously, if any bowler has to go to make room, surely it has to be Watson. And before anyone starts in on the tired old all rounder formula, Watson is no longer an all rounder, or a bowler, or a batsman, or even a fielder. Drop Watson, take five bowlers, none of which is a number 11. If those five bowlers, and our batsmen (including the tail) can't win a match, we don't deserve to win.
TheCunningLinguistic
Guest
I agree, although not Faulkner- at least, not yet. Mitch Marsh has better 5-day pedigree than Faulkner, though he is getting better all the time.
TheCunningLinguistic
Guest
I'd be reasonably happy with that call, Chris. Voges could almost lay claim to being a batting allrounder anyway, and he could get through overs quickly. With Shaun at 31 and Vogesy at 35 (and with Watson gone), it's only a matter of time before Mitch marsh makes his way in. As you say, some extra development time could only help. I'm a big fan of all the WA boys (surprising from a sandgroper, hey?), but you can't fit them all into the team. They're not from NSW, you know... ;-)
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
I actually think that, considering how few overs they've often got out of Watson lately, and with Voges, Clarke and Smith's spin, they could probably just pick both Voges and S. Marsh and leave both Watson and M. Marsh out. I'd think that would be a better call. I find it amazing I'm actually suggesting Shaun Marsh should be in the team. But for the first time in his career his selection has some performances to back it up.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Although, Starc is probably Australia's best proponent of reverse swing. So I don't know about him being less effective when the ball gets old.
13th Man
Guest
Shane Watson will not be a useful option, you might as well play 4 quicks as they can all bat better than him anyway. Bring in M Marsh or Faulkner to replace Watto
13th Man
Guest
wow big call to leave out Ryno, agree that he will need match fitness but it is hard to leave him out. Starc misses out for me very unlucky,
JGK
Roar Guru
England have 7 lefties in their line up - I like having lefties bowling to lefties. I reckon Harris misses out for the first Test.
TheCunningLinguistic
Guest
I'm not overly concerned about the bowling. They'll all get a go when Harris needs a rest, and they'll all do well. My smokey for top wicket taker- Hazlewood! I'm more concerned about the batting, specifically the all-rounder role. If they select Watson over Marsh again, I'll have kittens, I swear it! I believe, with every fibre of my being, that bringing Marsh in for the full Ashes series (barring injury) will improve both our batting and bowling. Different story if we had the Watson of 4-5 years ago, but he's gone- for good. Lastly, I feel bad for S. Marsh and Vogesy- one of them will miss out, and probably unfairly. They both deserve a spot, but who makes way?? I really hope they both get a chance, but barring injury, that seems unlikely. They'll probably go with with Marshy at 5, where he should be (not opening!). Aussies to win 3-0.
Raytah
Guest
Johnson had the edge on England in Australia because of his pace and the bouncy wickets... Starc is now bowling consistently faster than Mj and is a far better swing (and reverse swing) bowler as well which is far better suited to the conditions... Selectors will go With Mj based on incumbency but I believe it to be an error.