Why Queensland will win State of Origin Game 2

After a narrow escape in Game 1 of the 2015 State of Origin series, Queensland will be hoping that there will be no need for a Game 3 – and no need for a field goal from Cooper Cronk to get them there.

It was all too tense for Queensland fans in Game 1. The Maroons held much of the early ascendency, but with only one try to show for it, they lost the lead after two quick tries to the Blues.

STATE OF ORIGIN LIVE SCORES – GAME 2

You might have argued that it wasn’t a reflection of the game at the time, but NSW’s defence was very strong all night. One miracle try and some good work from Beau Scott had the Blues in front.

It was the same simple, brutal but effective gameplan the Blues employed to win last year’s series, and it was working.

Cronk being there to calm the ship was crucial for the Maroons.

His work in kicking to space, and being in the exact position required to snap the winning field goal was the difference between winning and losing for Queensland.

The concern is whether the bloke they’ve picked to replace him, Daly Cherry-Evans, will be able to do the same thing.

My guess is that he won’t but that won’t matter. Here are my reasons why the Maroons will take Game 2, making Game 3 in Brisbane nothing more than a victory lap.

The venue
The MCG hosts Origin 2, which you imagine is an advantage for… no one.

Rumours are swirling that there are more Queensland supporters than NSW supporters in Melbourne, and by the sounds of things it’s going to be a packed stadium.

A look through the record books will tell you that a match being hosted in Melbourne sways the game in favour of precisely… no one.

Of the three matches played at the MCG, NSW have won two and Queensland have won one. The Maroons have claimed the three played at Docklands, while NSW won the one played at Olympic Park.

That places the advantage squarely in the hands of neither team.

What can we take from that? Well, aside from hilarious questions around who would win out of a polar bear and a shark in a neutral, jelly-like substance, we can agree that the best team will win at a neutral venue.

I sincerely believe this Queensland team to be the better outfit of the two.

They have bordering on unlimited potential in the backs, and they have the half in Johnathan Thurston and hooker in Cameron Smith to unleash it.

Greg Inglis and Darius Boyd are the two most prolific try-scorers in Origin history, while Justin Hodges showed in Game 1 that niggle and experience can still take you far at this level.

If they perform, this team has 30 points in them at Origin level.

I don’t think they’ll get there, but this will be a looser affair than Origin 1, and they’ll get to 20.

I don’t think NSW will.

The Thurston factor will outweigh the Cherry-Evans factor
Daly Cherry-Evans playing in place of Cooper Cronk is going to have a negative impact on the Maroons.

They play a structured, organised game through the middle, which opens up space for their backs to do their work on the outside. Cooper Cronk, like Darren Lockyer before him, is a master communicator, and has the ability to make sure everyone is exactly where they need to be for every play.

Queensland weren’t able to replicate their structures with the same ruthlessness with Cherry-Evans at the helm last year as they were with Cronk.

They’re going to run into that problem again tonight.

However, Johnathan Thurston and Greg Inglis won’t repeat their quiet performances from Game 1.

These two, in particular Thurston, are known for carrying teams to victory by sheer brilliance.

Thurston was unable to lift Queensland over NSW in Game 2 last year with something, anything from his bag of tricks. Tonight he’ll pull something out when it counts, and it will make a difference.

Gal… It’s a trap!
Grubby. Don’t like ’em. Disrespectful.

Paul, I thought you’d been playing Origin footy long enough not to fall for that kind of thing.

Anything, and I mean anything, that gives Queenslanders a reason to think they’re other maligned or underdogs provides a distinct mental boost.

Don’t ask me why, but it’s like why bathing in salty, losing tears always perks up a winner, but Queensland feed off negative energy, turning it into passion and aggression on the footy field.

Why Paul Gallen fell into that trap I’ll never know. Maybe he thought it had been quiet… too quiet across the Origin period, or maybe he just really feels that way and felt the day before the game was the best time to say it.

Either way, in my view those comments will only spur Queenslanders on to a better performance, that will see them wrap up the series at the MCG.

I can’t wait to see the atmosphere at the ground, and I’m hoping both sides do the crowd the favour of turning on some attacking football.

Queensland to win by 10 points. Now, tell me how wrong I am.