According to the old adage, you are only as good as your last game. If that is the case then Essendon are doomed. Not only was their last game ordinary, their second last game was abysmal.
It was not the way the Bombers wanted to head into the bye rounds.
But are things really all doom and gloom out at the Hanger?
The supplements saga aside, I can certainly remember darker times – like in 2006 when they lost 14 games in a row under the tutelage of Kevin Sheedy; or the confused and lacklustre performances during Matthew Knights’ final year at the club in 2010.
No, things aren’t that bad – yet.
The problem with the Bombers is that they are like the little girl with the curl in that poem by Henry Wadsworth Longfellow. You know, the one that ends with –
“When she was good,
She was very good indeed,
But when she was bad she was horrid.”
Pretty much sums up the Bombers I reckon. Unfortunately they have been more horrid of late than good.
What makes it more painful for fans is the way the club has fallen away after its promising start to the season. Remember they faced last year’s grand finalists in the first two rounds, almost upsetting Sydney and then knocking over reigning premier Hawthorn a week later.
According to Brendan Goddard it is the fault of the younger players that the pace and intensity from those early encounters has faded away. They can’t sustain the effort apparently. I beg to differ.
For mine, the younger players have been leading the way. Zach Merrett hasn’t put a foot wrong and knows how to win his own football, Travis Colyer is having a break out season providing much needed dash and daring and Elliot Kavanagh showed up his senior team mates when he was brought into the side for the Geelong debacle.
In fact all three were among Essendon’s best on that dismal night.
Even Joe Daniher, who had a nightmare in front of the sticks, was still running around providing a target and taking contested marks. His tally of 20 goals for the season may appear modest, but it is not easy being a key forward in this Essendon line up, and his contribution should not be underestimated.
Of the other youngsters, Martin Gleeson and Patrick Ambrose have both been good enough to hold their places in the team all season.
Ambrose is not a big possession winner, but he has a big engine and fantastic work ethic, while Gleeson is a smooth mover who is a good user of the ball when under pressure. Both will benefit from their extended period within the side.
It is certainly not the fault of these boys that Essendon find themselves languishing in the lower reaches of the ladder.
That responsibility must rest with the senior players.
Cale Hooker and Michael Hurley aside, there is barely a member of the senior contingent who has managed to play solid, consistent football.
Tom Bellchambers and Courtney Dempsey were dumped last week for a series of below par performances, but the selectors axe could quite easily have beheaded a few more.
Jake Melksham’s lack of discipline needs to be checked. Paul Chapman has worn the substitute’s vest two weeks in a row. James Gwilt is panicky under pressure. Even Goddard has been gliding, quite happy to be fed the ball rather than get it himself.
His response to that criticism was hardly inspiring either, explaining it away as a ‘positional’ thing. Apparently playing on the wing excuses one from doing the hard stuff!
To be fair, the Essendon midfield is understrength. Take Jobe Watson and Dyson Heppell out of there and the depth doesn’t just fall away, it plummets.
A player like Ben Howlett may be an honest performer, but he doesn’t have opponents looking over their shoulders like Heath Hocking does. Hocking should be back after the break, along with David Zaharakis, David Myers and Jason Winderlich, providing an instant influx of grit, class, experience and bigger bodies.
Shaun Edwards’ inclusion last week was also a boost, with the former GWS player instantly making an impression.
So all is not lost for the Essendon football club just yet.
The challenge for coach James Hird is to get his senior players back to their best. Confidence breeds success and it is amazing how quickly things can turn around, especially for a group that has undoubted talent across its lines.
The most obvious problems are in the ruck and across half forward. The Bellchambers and Jake Carlisle situations have been well documented.
Bellchambers is just a shadow of the confident, aggressive, goal kicking ruckman/forward that he was prior to the ankle injury that cut him down a couple of years ago, while Carlisle has been all at sea since interim coach Mark ‘Bomber’ Thompson moved him forward last year.
Both players have been given time this year to settle into their roles, but neither have nailed down their positions. Hird’s gamble of dropping Bellchambers and using Carlisle in the ruck last week back fired, but was worth a try.
He has no choice now but to try another GWS import, Jonathon Giles, in the ruck.
By all accounts Bellchambers had a good game back a VFL level last week, kicking four goals and being listed as one of his team’s best, but he needs to string a few more good games together before being promoted back to the senior line up.
Some competition with Giles for the number one ruck berth may be just what the big fella needs.
If the Bombers’ big men begin to fire and Carlisle starts contributing regularly as a key forward, things may start to turn for the besieged club. Add to that a bolstered midfield and a back half that is the equal of any in the competition, and their position doesn’t appear to be quite so bad.
Time will tell of course, and while a first up meeting against the Hawks after the break is not the ideal match up for rebooting their season, the wins will come again.
Aransan
Guest
Paul, Colyer is a great loss but it will give an opportunity for someone else. That is sad for Bellchambers, he is out of contract at the end of the season and I was hoping that he would regain form and prove us all wrong. Unfortunately for him he will be out for 8 weeks which will give him little opportunity to demonstrate that he is worthy of a contract at Essendon or elsewhere. I know he has been injured in the last 2 years but one can't help but wonder if he made the most of his opportunities.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I see Travis Colyer is out for the season with a navicular stress fracture. Terrible news for the bombers, he's been one of the few bright sparks for their side this season. Bellchambers is no great loss though.
Aransan
Guest
Col, I agree McKernan is more a forward/ruckman than ruckman/forward but there is no point playing Bellchambers until he has shown very good form for an extended period in the VFL and I don't believe Giles is an option at all. I believe we can cover the ruck with McKernan in the side for the remainder of this year and of course Essendon supporters hope that Bellchambers can improve sufficiently to justify his place in Essendon's AFL side. Essendon look like being in the market for at least one ruckman in the end of year trading period but they don't have to be 200+cm tall. Jarryd Roughhead is 193cm, Paddy Ryder is 196cm, Shane Mumford is 198cm and Will Minson is 199cm.
Ben
Guest
Essendon fan here. Essendon made the wrong choice to pick Hird over bomber last year. Why pick a man who has lead a team into all this controversy over a 3 time premiership coach? where was the logic people
Col from Brissie
Guest
McKernan is more a forward/ruckman than a ruckman/forward. At 196 cm he is going to be giving away plenty of height and body strength against opposition ruckmen. To make him your number one ruckman is a big ask of him. He has at rare times played well as a forward but has lacked any consistency.
Max
Guest
He played pretty well against North Melbourne and has been in the best pretty much every week in the VFL, certainly deserves a go considering his form and the lack of form from Bellchambers.
Aransan
Guest
Col, the Crows had two very good ruckmen ahead of him, but Essendon are not going on his Crows form. McKernan is only 24y.o. and typically ruckmen take time to mature. In addition he has been playing very well in the VFL and he is a mobile ruckman/forward which is ideal for the modern game. I expect Carlisle to play a significant amount as a marking midfielder and alternate with him on the forward line. How many ruckmen are selected in the draft as 18y.o.s? If you check the history of many ruckman you will get a surprise about when and how they got to play. Check how many ruckmen started on the rookies list. Paddy Ryder played on the backline for years but Sheedy always thought that he would eventually be a ruckman.
Col from Brissie
Guest
So McKernan who managed only 34 games in 6 years at the Crows is your great hope.
Anthony Maguire
Guest
Gene, to quote Roger Hodson- "Dreamer! You know you are a dreamer!"
WhereIsGene
Guest
Isn't it ironic that its common knowledge Hird was the instigator of the illegal Drug Injecting program which has trashed the club's reputation and put the players through hell, yet Essendon supporters have backed him to the hilt and only now begun to question him when its' become apparent he can't win them games? Interesting set of priorities they have at Essendon.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Bombers shouldn't have traded pick 39 to the Bulldogs for Cooney. The Bulldogs drafted Bailey Dale with pick 45 who is already about to play his 4th game this weekend and looks like a good find. They can't really keep using the excuse about loss of draft picks when they exacerbate the situation further by making decisions like that one. They keep trying to take short cuts.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Maybe we could have an AFL version of the killing season in a few years time - Thompson and Hird lining up to tell their own version of events, a la Rudd Gillard - and contradicting each other every step of the way.
Aransan
Guest
Dougie, I reckon Bomber is better than most at constructing his own reality.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Aransan, I reckon he's been the only one consistently honest and non-delusional voice coming out of the Essendon Football Club for the past few years.
Aransan
Guest
Dougie, I think Bomber did want the coaching job at Essendon in 2015 and I believe he was sounded out about it when Essendon were considering sacking Hird the second time. The second occasion was when Hird took legal action against Essendon's wishes, but then they realised that they couldn't prevent Hird from exercising his legal rights. Hird would have had to be sacked on the eve of the 2014 finals series if he had not agreed to be part of the settlement with the AFL. I would take anything Bomber said now with a grain of salt, he is being paid to be an entertainer and I am sure he is very good at it.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
Aransan, I think once word gets around that Bomber is doing the speaker circuit, he will be in hot demand. He was extremely entertaining, candid and pretty brutal. He didn't seem to mind speaking the truth and opening up - he almost looked and sounded like he needed to get a few things off his chest. Very hard not to believe him. A few of his comments: - Hirdy instigated and drove the program. Hamilton also to blame for introduction of it; - He and Hirdy are still mates, but Hirdy's coaching career "... is f...cked"; - Bomber and Dr Reid were the only two who really tried to stop it. He regrets he didn't do more, but initially didn't think it had anything to do with his area. In the end, he felt compelled to step in; - He thought the program was shocking, unethical and totally wrong, but he still doesn't believe it was illegal (and if it was, it was without everyone's knowledge); - No love for Danks; - Caroline Wilson is a lovely lady (tongue in cheek); - AFL and Essendon Administration don't like Bomber, but the players love him; - He never coveted the Essendon or Gold Coast coaching job for 2015 with his B&F speech. He was just fooling around (pretty easy to believe this when you see his demanour and character). He was brilliant. - Stevie J and Chapman used to punch-on at training and are not friends;
Aransan
Guest
Dougie, I hadn't thought of the game plan but players do need match practice just to get match fit with regard to the bumping aspects of the game. By the way, with regard to your post regarding Bomber Thompson. Bomber did do a very good job at Essendon in 2014 and I regret that a position couldn't be found for him in the coaches box this year, but if I were Bomber I wouldn't be talking much about the drugs saga. The link is Bomber-Robinson-Danks.
Bobbo7
Guest
Chris, good to see there are some EFC fans with sense. Nothing will improve until Hird is gone.
Bobbo7
Guest
It will. The excuses will continue and none of it will be Hird's fault
TomC
Roar Guru
I think it's fair to point out that the Bombers' poor campaign so far has mostly been due to disappointing returns from the older brigade - Watson, Cooney, Goddard, Chapman have all been below par. Injuries have had a role, but on their own they should have been manageable in a team that appears to have plenty of midfield depth. The youngsters that have played have shown good signs, particularly Merrett and Daniher, but there simply aren't enough of them. Right now this club is not doing the hard work to cultivate the next generation, and unfortunately the draft penalties just make this harder even if they were to start now. All might not be lost, but I can't really see a compelling reason why the future will be better than the present for Essendon.