The 2015 Rugby Championship shapes as each nation's Undie 500

I had the great privilege of participating in an Undie 500 event. For those unfamiliar with the concept, every year Canterbury University students embark on one of the most creative car rallies you could ever wish to experience.

The rules were simple. Buy a car under $500 but roadworthy and drive it just under 400km to Dunedin.

But before doing so, you needed to transform your clapped-out vehicle into something visually striking.

My friends and I bought a Ford Cortina for a song, spray painted it orange, put 01 on the sides, and dressed up as The Dukes of Hazzard cast. The fortunate ones drew straws for Bo, Luke and Boss Hogg. Imagine my dismay, therefore, when I had to dress up as Daisy, especially given the person in an army uniform dressed up as General Lee and Sheriff Coletraine were both women!

Their insistence that I had the best legs for the role was cold comfort. Nor was the fact that I was not considered as the compulsory sober driver. OK, maybe that helped a lot.

After the parade in the car park, where the cars were judged, they made their way onto State Highway One and headed south. What should have taken under five hours took all day and much of the night.

The objective was to try and make it in one piece to Baldwin Street, whose claim to fame is being the world’s steepest residential street, but along the way it was compulsory to stop off at every roadside tavern and throw eggs at rival competitors, while avoiding the ire of omnipresent patrol cars.

What is the connection with the Undie 500 and the Rugby Championship you might well ask? In a World Cup year, it is my contention that all those who participate get something out of the abridged tournament just as those who ‘competed’ in the Undie 500 were enriched by the experience.

In terms of World Cup preparation, what more could you ask for in terms of evaluating your set piece, breakdown, defence and attack as well as counter-attacking capabilities? Just as the Undie 500 was a searching examination of both man and machine, trying to figuratively tread water in a pool weighed down by a keg.

Of course there is a Rugby Championship winner just as there is always a car who makes it to Dunedin first. Great pride is taken in achieving that feat, and rightly so, but all eyes are on a bigger prize.

In terms of the Undie 500, that ultimate prize was driving your vehicle, whose vapour trail could be seen from outer space, to the top of Baldwin Street. At its most imposing, that meant overcoming a 35 per cent gradient.

Some might say winning a World Cup overseas is a higher mountain to conquer for New Zealand. Indeed, South Africa, Australia and Argentina are probably all quite happy about playing a World Cup in England given their respective achievements in that part of the world at World Cup time.

Yet all are keen to work on certain areas of their game before then to give them the best possible chance of success. Let us examine what those areas are.

Australia
Michael Cheika will be hoping his Wallabies can emulate his franchise’s side and win the games that count. Unlike my Crusaders, who won handsomely against teams out of sorts this season, the Waratahs turned around average displays against lesser opponents and brought their A-game when it counted.

In the so-called Pool of Death, Australia can ill afford the inconsistent displays that have marred them in the past. Players like Wycliff Palu and Scott Fardy are microcosms of the Wallaby side in general. Immense and wondrously effective one day and reduced to bystanders the next. They must find a recipe to retain that fire in the belly throughout the tournament.

Cheika will be hoping the big hope – in every sense – that is Will Skelton can transform the Wallaby pack into an abrasive and unbending foe in the tight. Add in the promising young prop Scott Sio, who was injured last year, and draw the best out of players such as Scott Higginbotham and the big packs of Wales and England will hardly be licking their lips in anticipation.

But they must show that in the Rugby Championship. And consistently. Who can forget the heroic 60-minute defensive display in South Africa last year? Undoubtedly many more than the one in Eden Park.

If Australia are able to gain parity or even an edge up front, in Bledisloe 3 last year we saw how dangerous they can be in attack. We also saw in that game how docile the Wallabies can be when you place them on the back foot.

The Waratahs have done an excellent job of breaking down problematic rivals through abrasive defence. The Brumbies have squeezed the life out of opponents with the use of the rolling maul. Add in a dash of Rebels team work and Force obstinacy, along with the Reds’ set piece work, and you have a compelling combination.

The problem for Australia is that their pool means no respite. The players that they pick cannot choose their moments to shine, they need to strive for consistency and not let up or take a step back. Although Australia has a very good run against Wales in particular, try telling that to the South African players. It only takes one game.

Larry David once described apricots as a low-percentage fruit. Maybe one in 30 is good. Cheika needs at least five juicy apricots almost in a row to get to the final. With two home games against New Zealand and South Africa, as well an away game against Argentina, what better draw to strive for consistency and aim for three wins that will make the rugby world sit up and take notice?

South Africa
South Africa won the last Northern Hemisphere World Cup. They also had a tour to forget last November. Their pool will hold little fear for them. What looms like a giant shadow over the plains of Mordor is their semi-final opponent: The Dark Lord and original ring-bearer himself looking to regain complete physical form by finally winning away from home.

That, however, is not the biggest demon they will face. They have always proven to be fearsome opponents for New Zealand as they are very adept of negating the All Blacks’ strengths. It’s no coincidence that Julian Savea, like Jonah Lomu before him, is tryless against South Africa.

What will probably annoy South Africa most about last year is the hard work they undid to some extent. The previous year they had undone the Wallaby curse and beat them in both Brisbane and Pretoria. They then let that slip in Perth last year and broke their recent consecutive streak up north that even made New Zealand blush.

When the Springboks play to their potential, they bow to nobody. What Heyneke Meyer will be losing sleep over is their tendency to let standards slip against teams they should beat. Losing to Ireland away is in no way an embarrassment, but their recent record against Ireland must irk them. Ireland finally tour South Africa in 2016 but since 2004 they have played South Africa six times at home and only lost twice.

In this Rugby Championship, their games against Australia and Argentina matter more than the one against New Zealand at home. Their loss to Wales last year was their worst performance for some time and even though Australia is the only side to lose to Argentina in the Rugby Championship to date, South Africa were far from convincing against the Pumas last year.

The Springboks can learn to cut down their error rate that tends to spike when things are not going their way. They can approach those games as must wins but not believing they are definite wins, as appeared to be the case in Ireland.

South Africa can improve by imposing themselves not only on their opponents but also on the scoreboard. They have showed an appetite for adventure, catching New Zealand at their own game, but they seem less adept than New Zealand at scoring when it counts. For all of David Pocock’s damage at the breakdown in 2011 – regardless of whether you think it was legal or not – South Africa still had the lion’s share of possession and didn’t know how to convert it into points.

Argentina
Argentina finally claimed their first scalp last year to go along with their draw against South Africa at home. In a pool with New Zealand, the likelihood of moving to the other side of the draw is quite high. Regardless of whichever side they end up on, to go as far as they did in 2007 or indeed one better, they need to punch above their weight when it counts.

In a Rugby Championship where the top teams are likely to play around with fringe players at some stage, Argentina would set themselves up wonderfully for the World Cup with more wins under their belt.

In order to do that, they need to further develop their running and offload game and take the game to the opposition. We all know the obvious strengths of los Pumas and their win against France last November reminded me of their win against the same opponent in the 2007 World Cup. However, a more rounded Argentina on attack has a greater likelihood of going further in the World Cup than one focused on the set piece.

Argentina has nothing to lose this Rugby Championship. Go out there and express themselves. Put doubt into the minds of future opponents by showing what else besides scrums they have to offer. Take a leaf out of South Africa’s book and take the game to New Zealand in the first match, for example. Make their pool opponent think twice when they take the field against them in September.

New Zealand
The most disappointing thing about New Zealand’s performances last year wasn’t their blunted attack. With a new centre combination and a flyhalf changing from super sub to twisted firestarter, there was bound to be a loss in momentum. What alarmed me most was their significant drop on defence.

This can be attributed to Steve Hansen’s approach at the breakdown. Eager to avoid the yellow cards that seemed to be plaguing his team early on in the year, Hansen changed to a passive defence that allowed opponents to get a roll on and opened up gaps in the line. It also allowed opponents to dictate play for large periods of the game, as they were allowed continuity with the ball.

With Wayne Smith on board as defence guru, I’m looking forward to a hint of a new direction in this area. You cannot afford to wait until the World Cup knockout games to try a new approach. So I fully expect the home games at least to see a more urgent and coordinated defensive line working hard to get the ball back.

When things are going their way, like at Eden Park against Australia, it’s very difficult to stay in the game because New Zealand will hurt you on the scoreboard. When things are not going so well, like England for large periods of pretty much all their Tests last year, Australia in Sydney, South Africa in Wellington or even against Scotland, opportunities to hurt your opponent on the scoreboard dry up.

The All Blacks’ ability to apply scoreboard pressure is one of their great secrets to their consistency. Disrupt their scoring and lo and behold they become the mortals we all knew they were under all that legacy makeup.

If the All Blacks wrestle control away from their opponents by shutting them down in defence – much like France in June 2013 or Australia in the 2011 semi-final – then they don’t need to score many points to take the game away from their opponents. Much is made of the New Zealand attack but arguably their defence will determine how far they progress in 2015.

With Super Rugby finals upon us and the Rugby Championship about to begin, there is very much the temptation to gloss over these games and follow the yellow brick road to Twickenham in October.

Even though the winner of the Rugby Championship this year is as likely to be remembered or revered as the winner of the Undie 500 the year in which I participated, all teams will come away from the tournament with the firm belief that they are the better for the experience. This can only come about by gaining deep insight into their capabilities as well as having confronted their limits and personal failings.

Rosco P. Coletraine summed it up best: “That put a quiver in my liver.”