This coming Saturday will provide us the first insight into what might transpire later this year during the Rugby World Cup.
South Africa will take on Australia at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, a ground where success has been hard to come by for the Springboks.
Recent results
7 September 2013 South Africa wins 38-12
24 July 2010 Ausralia wins 30-13
5 September 2009 Australia wins 21-6
Michael Cheika has pretty much selected a familiar matchday 22, with perhaps a surprise that David Pocock was named on the bench with Michael Hooper starting at seven
For most Springbok supporters the sight of a prone David Pocock given Carte Blanche by Bryce Lawrence will be forever imprinted in their minds, and hence a surprise that the bogeyman of breakdown play is not starting.
Be that as it may, Michael Cheika has decided he needs a back row more capable of running with ball in hand and linking with his outside backs. The theory, of course, is to run the Springbok forwards around and tire them sufficiently to open up the game in the latter stages and hoping defensive lapses will generate enough holes to punch through.
Considering that Meyer has selected a well balanced back row of Burger, Louw and Coetzee you have a combination that might have the edge on the Wallabies’ Fardy, Hooper and Higginbotham.
You first have to win the breakdown in order to unleash the ball wide, and with Fardy, who is very capable at the breakdown, but up against a loose trio who can all competently play towards the ball plus Bismarck du Plessis who is as capable at the breakdown as anyone, Fardy might be set up for a hefty challenge.
Burger has reinvented his game, distribution, looking for support runners and getting the ball into space. He is a far cry from the young 23-year-old who used to be little more than a crash test dummy with no regard for his own safety.
For that we have Marcell Coetzee, easily as capable as the younger version of Schalk Burger.
Hooper and Higginbotham are both very intelligent and competent players, but whether they will run Burger, Louw and Coetzee into the ground is a questionable matter.
I am rather excited to see whether Matt Giteau can replicate his form in Europe on the international arena, it has been some time since we saw what he is really capable of. Regardless of that, he will show his wares and his experience will come in handy for the Wallabies.
I have always been in favour of Matt Toomua as he never really let Australia down, but perhaps Giteau’s playmaking ability is what Cheika is hoping will shine through.
For South Africa, even though we are unlikely to see much of the Pollard, de Allende and Jesse Kriel show for much of this season, it will be good to see how this very young and realistically very inexperienced group of youngsters stack up against an experienced trio of Quade Cooper, Matt Giteau and Tevita Kuridrani.
Giteau has all the skills to put Kuridrani into the half spaces and Pollard, de Allende and Kriel will have to mark their opponents and ensure they do not break the line to create any mismatches in the backline defence.
On the other hand, De Allende’s ability to stay up in the tackle, find his support runner and Kriel’s ability to step and accelerate could be a mighty challenge for the Aussies.
Willie le Roux has not had much game time since his injury lay off, but expect him to come out with at least a few pearlers, and of course the obligatory unforced error or two.
I don’t expect the scrums to be dominated by either pack, however the Springboks might have a slight edge in the lineouts.
I am still not convinced Will Skelton is fit enough to impact a game for 80 minutes, and Cheika will most likely hope that Skelton can make an impact for at least the first 40 minutes. His bulk will most definitely be a factor, however is he really an advantage in the line outs?
Pollard’s boot can be erratic at times, and it will be vital for him to kick his goals, and his tactical nous is still wanting. There was not much control taken by him for the Bulls during the Super Rugby season.
Concerns for the Bok pack might be the lack of physicality by Matfield, and Jannie du Plessis’ work rate in defence. Other than that it is an experienced pack and well balanced.
Ruan Pienaar, is, well, Ruan Pienaar. He’s used to controlling things from behind the ruck. He is solid and reliable, but not the most exciting halfback in the world.
I expect Australia to want to keep ball in hand, try to build phases and get Kuridrani and Folau into space. Perhaps that’s too predictable?
South Africa will most likely continue playing their defensive game, only really using counter attack from deep if the play is on, otherwise they will kick possession away out of their half, build phases inside the Aussie half, with hopefully enough patience to gain front foot ball.
Who will win?
I suppose the fence is the safest option, so I will be making myself very comfortable there.
Clement seroka
Guest
Springbok will win no ways go bokkie gooooo
Grent Dosa
Roar Rookie
Brilliant xD
Thanks rl, I think the breakdown battle and 10, 12 and 13 combinatis will be the most interesting tests of this match
Grent Dosa
Roar Rookie
Love him or hate him, that coach can't deny Goosen is pure class
Jake
Guest
"Imo, the Bokke are going to actually teach the Aussies how Rugby Union is played, in Brisbane on Saturday night." Good luck to them. In Brisbane, it is usually the other way around. Forgotten the 49-0 hiding handed out by the Wallabies to SA?
Karl Knuth
Guest
I'd have to disagree Mielie. All talk coming out of camp wallaby has been positive and focussed. It worries me that we havnt had a warm up match, but in saying that a lot of the players have been in camp for nearly 3 weeks. I think we are in for a cracker of a match! The Boks will no doubt be out to prove themselves, perhaps they will try too hard? They have a strong team on paper, not their best but it is strong. The Wallabies are going to have to be very switched on and agressive right from kickoff to be a chance against that Bok back row. Heres hoping both teams leave their kicking boots in the shed and bring their best running games!
Mielie
Guest
Hey Biltongbek, thank you for you interesting, and very clever article. You have very cleverly planted some very negative thought provoking questions in exactly the right minds. The Aussie players all read this blog , and I see some usual posters are not here today. Imo, the Bokke are going to actually teach the Aussies how Rugby Union is played, in Brisbane on Saturday night. My reason being that Cheika, the Thas and Oz supporters were absolutely gob smacked by being beaten by the NZs in SR. They were absolutely convinced that the cup was as good as on the mantle piece. And they would not have minded losing so much, but they were slaughtered. And then came the Brumbies turn. In latter day articles relating to comments made by Cheika , a very strong impression is created that he is not at all self confident regarding his player choices and as a result, comes up with these supposed morale building statements. It would not surprise me, bearing in mind his previous statements, if he comes up with" It's not who wins the game, it's how you play the game that is important." Cooper? Early on in the game he is going to be well tackled. And that will be cooper. Gateau? (spelling) The young Bok fly half and two centers intend claiming ownership to their Bok jumpers. It will take far more than what Oz puts on the paddock to stop them. Considering the latter day vents in team politics, coach replacing,coach chastising , childish behavior of some of their players and the gladiator outcome of the SR competition, the Wallaby morale is very, very low at present. Cheika might have to kick a few more doors down before things improve. While the young Springboks are on a mission.
niwdEyaJ
Roar Guru
I'd rate Australia's top 3/4 flyhalves as Cooper, Toomua and Lealiifano/Giteau. Latter 4 all play 10 & 12 comfortably. Not the worst thing in the world....
rl
Guest
Hi BB, I'm late to the party, but thanks for another great contribution. This site is all the richer and more balanced for your participation. Like all Wall fans, I'm hoping (praying?) for parity in the set piece, but your back row scares me. Others might think its 3 same-same players, but to me their versatility means they can interchange roles during the game. Very interested to see how Gits fares. Bokke shoulders haven't become softer since he last played, and your backrow will be completely feral. Suspect the Aussie 10-12 channel will see a LOT of traffic. The good news (for Walls fans) is that inside channel is one that Fardy can patrol/enforce. But with no Pocock, Fardy needs to be immense at the breakdown. Here's hoping for a wonderful competitive game!
dsat24
Guest
Thanks BB, so many aspects t watch for in this first game of the RC. Game looks even to me, some home ground advan but not much. Genia and Copper are at home in key positions should mean something. Meyer had good success here last year so is hoping for more of same. Although Meyer will of course be concerned until final whistle.
Old Bugger
Guest
BB Welcome back and great to read your comments again. I have been watching the Tahs, Reds and Brumbies packs thru' the back half of the SR and I don't mind admitting that they do have the cattle stock to pack down a decent scrum, if they make the right picks, from those SR packs. That being said, I think Cheika is in an experimental phase. If as many WB supporters are purporting that their scrum will gain parity then so be it and Cheika, will have gained some kudos especially against the SB pack selected. I will consider parity as being a major win for Cheika if that's the case. In the line-outs, I would imagine Moore will come under some extreme pressure with his throw-ins and if he fails to overcome that, then we may see the SBs plug the lines more often, to avert the scrums. In the forwards pick and go plays and even running off the rucks, a lot of effort will be placed upon Skelton to get front-foot go forward position to maintain momentum....the SBs need to take a leaf out of the Tahs v H'Landers SF game where defence became a means of attack and tackling behind the gain-line proved vital to the Landers stopping the Tahs go-forward. Etzebeth and Matfield need to be at the front of this defensive effort. If not, then once the WBs start gaining a roll-on, it makes it very difficult to retire and defend. I don't expect the SBs to adopt a similar pick and go, ball running approach - at least, not in this 1st test anyway. IMO, the SBs will keep the ball close and maul drive it to draw in the WBs loose forwards before releasing back to Pienaar-Pollard. Lastly, the ruck ball IMO, will be the turning factor in this match for possession. I am looking forward to seeing how the SB loosies perform as I'm sure, so will the AB coaches. I suggest that the WBs flanks will need to be not only quicker but also stronger over the ball....if not, I can see Louw and Coetzee gaining dominance. I heard that this is the most capped WB line-up with a 1000+ caps. I think they will need some of that experience from Giteau to steady the ship before they let Genia-Coops start to play with some unorthodox passages. But as we all know, backs can only show their wares if the 8 blokes up front gain clean, quick ball and gain it from go-forward passages. If the WBs achieve this, then it remains how composed and strong the SB first-up tackling will be, to stop that progress. I'm looking forward to a great first up challenge for both sides and particularly, for Cheika against Meyer.
dimitri
Guest
Can Kriel stop Kuridrani, being serviced by Giteau? This might be where the game is decided
Harry Jones
Expert
Handre--I want him clinical and calm. Etzebeth--I want him rabid.
Harry Jones
Expert
Definitely, RT. Thor will be there and will play in the QF.
Chivas
Guest
I forgot to add I love your confidence :-) and wish Handre was one of the names you were looking for big things from as I think ability to play field position is pretty important I these early bouts.
Chivas
Guest
T
Harry Jones
Expert
RT! Nice bet! I see Ladbrokes has OZ 3.5 point favourites. So we are slight underdogs... :)
Chivas
Guest
Excellent Harry. I often think when teams start a game hard and fast. It starts with the entire forward pack. I also think at home with all the talk about the Wallabies they could very well hit the track playing hard and fast to leverage the crowd and to gain confidence. My point is about how the Bok start. Often when they have travelled, the home team has been able to get the jump on them regarding starting. But if these blokes you name are going to get the Bok off to a great start and silence the sun corp crowd from the whistle, then that is great.
kriel will simply run around him ;)
Rugby Tragic
Guest
I read that Vermeulen was touch and go? Maybe Meyer will carry him in until the QF's like Henry did with Read in 2011