The Roar’s AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 17

The fight for a spot inside the top eight is heating up, but in Round 17 it will be two clashes between teams currently inside the top five that will be the most telling on key finals positioning.

Once again, The Roar‘s panel of expert tipsters are back with their tips and predictions for Round 17.

Hawthorn have well and truly stamped their authority as premiership favourites, but who will be there to challenge come September? We’ll get a better idea of the key contenders once we see West Coast face Sydney and Fremantle travel to do battle with the Tigers.

Our experts are backing the favourites, but let us know what you think in the comments below.

Fancy yourself a decent tipper? Make sure you submit your tips in the form below to help The Crowd out-tip the experts.

Ryan Buckland
Hawthorn, GWS, Adelaide, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Dogs, Saints, West Coast

Last week was a bit of a risk-taking disaster in the end, but fear not! There’s still some volatility to exploit in Round 17 for those of you (not me, obviously) that need to pick up a few tips in the remaining seven rounds to get yourself into contention.

Friday night is not one of those games. This one has Wayward Pines reckoning written all over it. Come back tomorrow for an extended take.

The early game is a really interesting affair. The Giants continue to defy most mid-season predictions – including my own – in remaining well in the hunt for the eight. As are the Cats, which is more of a shock to me. It’s a measure of how close the middle class of this season is that a team sitting on seven and a half wins with seven games remaining has a very strong chance of missing the finals.

Anyway back to this game, the Cats got one over the Dogs last weekend despite missing their lone pass mark player, Joel Selwood. The Giants ended up getting the job done against the Suns, but it took more effort than they would have liked as a result of terrible scoring accuracy. To be honest I’m struggling to split this one, so I’ll back the home team. Wait, it’s in Canberra? Nah, I’ll stay with the Giants.

Adelaide are scoring close to 100 points per game at the Adelaide Oval this year, and have moved into being the third best offensive side in the league after last weekend’s Game of the Year contender. The Suns look a different side with their best player – funny that. Gary Ablett Jnr’s shoulder got a good test last weekend, with his laying of 17 goddamn tackles. That’s one almost every three minutes of game time. One area the Suns haven’t improved is defensively, so Adelaide should have little trouble here.

Richmond and Fremantle is another one of those games you can make a case for either side. The Tigers blitzed the Dockers in the first leg of this battle earlier in the year, with Fremantle ending up the victor over the remaining three quarters. Both teams have seemingly put defence first, although as I wrote earlier in the week Ballantyne’s absence in Fremantle’s forward line might give them a bit of a boost. I’m expecting a relatively low scoring affair here, which seems to be Fremantle’s speciality recently. So I’ll go with the Dockers. But Richmond are in it for sure, and could give their top four chances a boost with victory here.

Ugh, the Power and Bombers. Before the season this one probably had battle for the top four written all over it. Now it’s a game neither side probably wants to win particularly desperately, given the implications on draft order. Paddy Ryder plays his first game against his old side, and “boy oh boy wowee” BT will let us know all about it. The pick? Port have been slightly less awful in recent weeks, so go with them.

Can you spell Danger Game? That’s what this is for the ‘Roos, who completely ballsed up their last trip to Queensland to face a straggler. It’s Brent Harvey’s 400th game, which will give the side some added motivation. Not that they need it, given the ninth place noose is still waiting to tighten around someone’s neck. Speaking of 400th games, this weekend’s clash is a chance to even the 400 game game ledger to 2-2 all time. The ‘Roos should get it done, if only because Brisbane are looking down the barrel of a priority pick rejection if they don’t… (FWIW I don’t think they get one regardless)

Will this Sunday match last weekend? It’s not likely. But we can only hope.

In the biz, we talk a lot about leverage. In footy parlance, that equals an eight point game. The Dogs’ hold on a finals spot has gotten a tad more tenuous after their loss to the Cats, while the Pies find themselves out of the eight once again after a promising first half. Both sides are very effective at the forward press, making the midfield battle crucial. It could go either way, but I’m backing the Dogs to lock themselves in the eight.

Pop quiz: who makes the eight first? Before the year it was line ball – now it’s very clearly St Kilda. Tip accordingly in this one.

Sunday twilight looms as match of the round. The Eagles begin their testing part of the schedule, although Sydney’s recent funk means West Coast are catching them at the right time. I’d expect a big response from the Swans after last weekend’s horror show, so it could be s little closer than everyone is expecting. But it’ll be an Eagles victory make no mistake.

If they win against the Swans, West Coast won’t have many doubters left. (Photo by Adam Trafford/AFL Media)

Cam Rose
Hawthorn, GWS, Adelaide, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Collingwood, Melbourne, West Coast

Carlton vs Hawthorn: The line for this match is 65.5 points. The Hawks will clear double that if they’re at all interested in doing so. Hawthorn by 75 points.

GWS vs Geelong: The Cats finished last season third on the ladder, the Giants third last. Times have certainly changed. No idea on this one, so will stick with the home team, with no confidence. GWS by 8 points.

Adelaide vs Gold Coast: It won’t surprise to see the Crows suffer a let-down after a fierce and emotional showdown, but would the Suns even be able to take advantage, playing away from home? Adelaide by 31 points.

Richmond vs Fremantle: Can the Tigers replicate their exploits from the last time these sides met? Are the Dockers ready to find their best again? A tough game to tip. Fremantle by 11 points.

Essendon vs Port: The Dons were spirited for a half against North last week, but the lack of class told in the end. The Power are playing much better football since their bye, even though they’re only 1-2 in that time. Port by 22 points.

Brisbane vs North: Last week the Lions put up arguably the most woeful and error-riddled performance of any team this year. The Roos can’t be trusted under any circumstances, even for Boomer’s 400th. I won’t tip Brisbane, but I’ll will have $10 on them. North by 15 points.

Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood: The Dogs failed to make the most of their play last week, unable to find the scoreboard. The Pies similarly struggled without Elliott and Cloke, and will be without them again. They’ll cobble together a winning score this time. Collingwood by 14 points.

Melbourne vs St Kilda: Can the Demons do the unthinkable and win two in a row? The Saints only played one good quarter of footy last week, but almost caught the Tiges. Can’t trust the Dee’s, but the MCG just tips me toward them. Melbourne by 8 points.

West Coast vs Sydney: The scene could be set for a famous Swans victory, with their backs well and truly to the wall. The Eagles have got their own problems with McGovern out, but they should still be able to kick a winning score. An upset won’t surprise though. West Coast by 15 points.

Sean Lee
Hawthorn, Geelong, Adelaide, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, St. Kilda, West Coast.

Hawthorn to defeat Carlton: If anyone doubts it, just watch a replay of last week.

Geelong to defeat GWS: There is fight in the old Cat yet. Not much fight, but just enough to be able to outwit the young GWS outfit.

Adelaide to defeat Gold Coast: Fantastic win last week by the Crows in a fantastic, high scoring game of football. Pity there isn’t more of it. They’ll back up again this week and hold on to their spot in the eight for just a bit longer.

Fremantle to defeat Richmond: Fremantle have been a bit wobbly of late while the Tigers have been winning ugly. Still, you don’t get to Round 17 with only two losses if you can’t play, so for that reason I’m tipping the Dockers. It’s anyone’s game though!

Port Adelaide to defeat Essendon: Surely the Bombers have to play Jonathan Giles this week? They were ripped apart by North Melbourne goliath Todd Goldstein last week and won’t want to give former player Paddy Ryder a similar armchair ride this week. At least the new squadron of baby Bombers are having a red-hot go. Port will still win though.

North Melbourne to defeat Brisbane: The Kangaroos are overrated and not good enough to make an impact in this year’s final series, but they will win this game. Don’t be fooled into thinking they are any good though!

Western Bulldogs to defeat Collingwood: Collingwood has been so gallant against strong opposition over the past few weeks, but things really fell away in the final stages of their game against the Eagles last Saturday. Fatigue might be catching up with the Pies after a super start to the year. No Cloke either. Five losses in a row coming up.

St Kilda to defeat Melbourne: Sorry Melbourne, you may have won last week but you also only kicked one goal in the second half. That gives you some indication of the quality (or lack there of) of the opposition. St Kilda aren’t that flash themselves, but they play better footy than the rubbish that the Demons and Brisbane dished up last week.

West Coast to defeat Sydney: The Swannies were in disarray against the Hawks last week and while The Eagles won’t be as unsociable as their raptor cousins, Sydney supporters better brace themselves for another loss. It is a long road trip out west and an even longer one home after a loss.