West Coast have proved it is no aberration – the Swans are in deep trouble in 2015.
It is hard to write off a team that has been high-achieving for so long, but now the fat lady must be singing on the Sydney Swans this season.
It is not to say that they should have beaten the Eagles, but another ‘un-Swans-like’ performance has the alarm bells ringing.
Something is dreadfully amiss – Swans fans are so used to seeing a side with a big heart that contests, fights and scraps their way to wins, not one that buckles over like the Swans have in the past fortnight. And let’s not forget they only just got over Brisbane the week before that.
The trademarks of the Swans: selfless play, discipline, relentless pressure, and tackles that stick, have all but disappeared.
My old man (who moonlights as a weekend armchair Sydney critic) made an interesting observation during the Swans clash with the Eagles.
He (in between sprays opining that the Swans no longer have a ‘Bloods culture’ since the Buddy Franklin and Kurt Tippett acquisitions) noted that the Western Bulldogs are playing the brand of footy the Swans have lost. The Bulldogs are taking the game on and clearly under instruction to play without fear of making a mistake.
While it seems ridiculously harsh to criticise a coach when a team sits fourth with 11 wins and five losses this deep in a season, John Longmire must come under scrutiny, as the players are not responding lately and look simply lost on the field at times.
Unlike the Bulldogs (who now sit only one win behind the Swans), Sydney players are presently displaying a combination of poor skills, lack of communication, errant decision-making and tentativeness to take the game on.
Last week I wrote that the Swans forward structure looked shot, and what better way to test a new plan than without the injured Buddy Franklin or Kurt Tippett.
However, time and again the team seemed listless in going forward, unable to find a target – Gerard Healy summarised it very well when he said that players are looking to clear the ball from their area and rid themselves of being accountable – the Swans looked like 22 individuals out there.
If I was John Longmire, here are a few of the things I would be looking at:
Players are shunning the centre corridor – in 2012 the Swans played a wonderful, frenzied football through the centre with highly-skilled handballing midfielders interlaced with wonderful driving kicks from the half-backs and centres. The corridor must be revisited.
There is no lead-up forward in the structure – if you are going to play a sling-shot style of game you need strong leading mark who can hold the ball to let the midfielders run through.
The team do not play by the adage that the ‘boundary line is your friend’ when under pressure. Defenders are continually turning the ball back in towards the centre when pressured. Similar to the football adage ‘don’t kick across your goal’.
Team mates are also going third and fourth man up to spoil the ball – while these number make an effective spoil, countless opposition players are left on the ground for the crumb.
While some of these elements are certainly down to decision-making, so many players are making the same mistakes repeatedly that it cannot be just down to dumb choices.
Longmire must look at reinvigorating the team, as the biggest worry is while the team has not only bottomed out, the competitive spark has also gone.
Some analysts will say if Sam Reid hadn’t kicked 0.4, or if Brandon Jack had lowered his eyes and found his brother early in the final term, the match may have had a different edge. But the Swans mini-revival in the third term was clearly when the Eagles had put on the brakes and an early cue the rack – they smashed the Swans in the clearances and contested footy, and the rucking of Naitanui was something to behold.
Could it be that as Longmire has been at the Swans for over a decade that his message is beginning to sound tired or lost?
Horse certainly deserves an opportunity to repair this malaise, but the high-profile acquisitions over the last two years draw an increasing spotlight and expectation from fans to get it right. If not, the rest of the AFL world is ready to get the knives out on a team that they perceive became greedy on COLA and tried to buy a dynasty of success.
Don Freo
Guest
If those games are a worry for Freo, how do you assess the Hawthorn games against Essendon, GWS, Sydney (they are 1-1 despite Sydney being very weak) and Port (who have been atrocious)? Freo is 2 games clear on top without 3 key defenders. The moment 1 or 2 of those come back, McPharlin and Ibbotson are freed up to rebound and intercept again and the forwards get supply again. Remember, also, Fyfe has been on one leg for 3 weeks...but we keep on winning. Keep the faith Kick to Kick.
kick to kick
Guest
Mitchell is a dilemma. Gets lots of ball and works very hard but his disposal efficiency is below par. He would still need to improve that at another club. Not persuaded by Freo's depth. Would like to see the Dockers win a flag but judging on the Hawthorn, Carlton, Richmond games they are struggling almost as much as the Swans and currently are a good way off premiership form.
Don Freo
Guest
That's the problem...depth. Freo has players like Crozier, Duffy, C Pearce, Weller, De Boer...when Ballas or Sunny miss. You should have. You don't because you have Buddy. You don't because you chased Tippy the white elephant.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Replacing defenders and working to a strategy (which both Perth teams do quite well) is different to replacing players of the calibre of Bird and McGlynn. I speak about these two because of their skills, not any small forwards would work.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Pyke is being less effective definitely. Shaw and Ricahrds have been crap for the most part but I actually think Grundy has had a pretty good year. Agree Nankervis could be rotated or bring in Sam Naismith. He's 203cm, barely has to a be a good ruck...
jax
Guest
Good analysis Stirling
Rocko
Roar Guru
Stirling - I think the big thing around the back six is Ted has stopped rebounding (as he slows down) - his marking has also dropped off. I like your comparison to the Hawks of the previous period - however Clarkson has evolved tactically into an amazing coach - do you think Longmire can do the same thing?
Stirling Coates
Editor
The big problem for me with the Swans is that age has caught up with the back six very quickly. Ted Richards, Heath Grundy and Rhyce Shaw are all shadows of the players they were in 2012. Dane Rampe is starting to develop nicely, although he still makes too many boneheaded decisions with the ball, and the horrific run of injuries to Alex Johnson hasn't helped either - he was looking ripe for a breakout season in 2013 but now the 2012 Grand Final is still the last game of senior footy he's played. Looking to other areas as well, Mike Pyke is starting to look extremely ineffective around the ground with age and knee issues - to the point where I honestly think Sydney's best option is to rotate Toby Nankervis and Kurt Tippett. A lot of people blame Franklin for Sydney losing Shane Mumford, although I remember the consensus being that Mumford was going to leave before anyone knew of the Franklin deal. At the moment Sydney remind me very much of the Hawks in that 2008-2011 period. Probably overachieved by winning the flag when they did and right now they're struggling with players at the very end of their careers and other players at the beginning of theirs. But Dan Hannebery (24), Gary Rohan (24), Sam Reid (23), Alex Johnson (23), Luke Parker (22), Tom Mitchell (22), Jake Lloyd (21), Harry Cunningham (21), Brandon Jack (21), Toby Nankervis (20), Zak Jones (20) and Isaac Heeney (19) still have their best days ahead of them, so if Sydney can navigate Franklin's monstrous contract successfully they could dominate the competition in 2-3 years time. I don't think they can win the flag this year however.
Christo the Daddyo
Guest
Glad you admit you're speculating based on nothing. Always encouraging to see someone admit to their faults. Pyke was in great form last year too. At the time the Swans list management team would have felt completely entitled to think he, with a bit of backup from Tippett, would continue that form. No reason to think the players thought differently. "Are you sure that you aren't just a little frustrated and sensitive to any criticism of your club?" Quite sure actually. Which would be obvious to you if you'd bothered to read my post. Speculation is fine as long as it's grounded in something realistic. Which you haven't done. For someone who claims they "really don't care" you seem to be expending a lot of energy. Hilarious!
Don Freo
Guest
Yeah but, as a theoretical contender, they should have the depth to cover it. What are they doing with Tom Mitchell? Trying to force him to another club? Freo and WC have had to contend with 3 key defenders out...and have been able to respond. Surely Sydney can cover a couple of average little blokes. I don't think Sydney would play them if they had them. They are committed to the tall money men.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Jetta in defence looks completely lost. He doesn't know what the next 'move' is. Midfield he knows and looks so much more composed. McGlynn and Bird are the bigger two for me (although Heeney is a gun) as they chase down and put pressure on opponents which hasn't been their this year for the most part. Don Freo (below) you are right it is comparatively low but the Swans were using them as part of their strategic defence and attack which has hurt. Now they are playing slow which gives the opposition time to flood, get back on Buddy/Tippett, Buddy/Pyke and ball gets out easily due to lack of small forwards defending. Haven't been able to adapt since.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
No doubt he needs to lead better. He did so at Crows not sure why he stopped...
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
Leading by example is what captains do. I haven't seen them too much on the field in terms of directing players either to be honest.
Don Freo
Guest
It is a comparatively light run with injury.
Rocko
Roar Guru
Jim - I think the contract squeeze has hurt them a little more than they would have realised- Everett (Carlton), Membrey (Saints), Biggs (Bulldogs) etc, while not being massive game-changers, were handy players who could fulfill roles. While Membrey went for more opportunities, he is the player the Swans are sorely missing as a third tall. I think they have the crumbers they have just had a shocking run with injuries (Heeney, McGlynn), and I still think Jetta should be used as a wing / half-forward (40 goals in premiership year). Defensively completely agree the cupboard is bare on key posts.
Rocko
Roar Guru
Jack - Tippett can influence games - but he (and he is not alone) is often caught horribly out of position either stagnant or under the ball when it comes into the forward 50. This, complemented with the midfield's atrocious delivery as you noted, is causing serious concerns.
Rocko
Roar Guru
He was the one ray of hope. The only other slight one was Rhys Shaw suddenly looked up for a bit of a contest yesterday - however he is in the twilight.
Rocko
Roar Guru
Disagree about Kennedy - he has had another excellent season - as for Jack and McVeigh they certainly have been inconsistent. I would argue that Jack has been a shadow of the player he was when Mumford around, and has been the mid most affected with the loss of the bigfella.
jax
Guest
"but the fact remains most of their wins have come against teams outside the top 8." Considering that WC is second on the ladder and that we have an 18 team competition most of their wins should be against teams outside the 8 because we don't have a Top 10 last time I checked.
Rocko
Roar Guru
Certainly the Swans were rabbits caught in headlights- but Hawthorn were absolutely ferocious and I think a few of the younger Swans were caught up in the pre-match hype.