Hoy wrote an excellent article yesterday in which no less than seven Wallabies combinations were discussed.
All had positives and negatives and when you throw a bolter or two into the mix (such as Jack Debreczeni, Sammy Kerevi, Mitch Inman or even Kyle Godwin) the potential combinations and permutations increase exponentially.
This really highlighted what seems to be a very new problem for the Wallabies, what to do with a little bit of depth.
All of the players mentioned by Hoy have the potential to be great players. A few have had patches of brilliance throughout their careers at provincial and international level. Add a measure called potential into the mix and many of those combinations could, with time to develop cohesion, end up going down in history as among the game’s greatests.
The issue then is Michael Cheika’s. With a year or two to prod, trial and build familiarity, selections should begin to emerge. Unfortunately Cheika does not have the luxury of time. Unfortunately, also, is this isn’t the only combination in need of consideration and still unknown just over a week before a back-to-back Bledisloe Test.
Upon reading this article it recalled a conversation with a close mate about potential selections for the upcoming Bledisloe based upon what we’d seen so far.
The end point was that at present the Wallabies can put out at least two really good rugby sides. The detail will come into the way individual players work in their micro combinations and more broadly the team structure and strategy the coach puts out.
Add in that the strategy needs to tie in to complement these combinations to allow execution, and it is clear that Cheika has a lot of variables to consider.
This means I am glad it is not my job.
Let’s look at a few more beyond Hoy’s combinations.
The front row
Over the last two games we have seen Greg Holmes, Scott Sio, James Slipper, Sekope Kepu, Stephen Moore and Tatafu Polota-Nau run out in various combinations.
It seemed quite simple from the first Test as the reserves came on and held up the scrum but then a week later the same occurred with different combinations.
Therefore are we looking for scrum strength? Are we looking for mobility around the park? Are we looking for work in the tight? The questions go on. I think between those six we have the answer, but what is the question?
The second row
Similarly, Cheika has run out Will Skelton, Rob Simmons, James Horwill with Dean Mumm and Scott Fardy potentials (and Kane Douglass and Sam Carter, among others, hovering). The lineout, also a factor for selection of the hooker, now becomes an issue.
While the scrums have been up and down, the lineout has largely been excellent. Can we get the best of both worlds here? We still need to get the dominance in the tight with the right combination. Again the answer is there somewhere.
The back row
Losing track, but Michael Hooper, David Pocock, Scott Fardy, Scott Higginbotham, Ben McCalman and Dean Mumm all have many positive attributes. The combinations here depend upon the second row somewhat in terms of providing lineout option.
Also for consideration is the tight work over the ball that Pocock brings, the speed Hooper adds out wide, the Higginbotham ranging game, McCalman bravely playing the tight game, Fardy a mix of both or Mumm swatting Argentinians left right and centre.
Here balance is crucial and again the answer is around somewhere. Consider McMahon and Liam Gill (and some would suggest the ever-young George Smith) and the grey becomes even greyer.
The backs
I don’t need to spend any time on the 10/12 combination except to explore how the individuals and combinations work with and around them.
The forwards will obviously deliver the platform however the halfback will dictate speed of delivery and whether the posts are held up with the threat of the run from the base.
Will Genia, Nic White or Nick Phipps are all good but different options. All have combinations with the 10s mentioned by Hoy, some will need more time to develop combinations with others.
12-13 is a crucial combination and Ma’a Nonu and Ben Smith are a great example of how the sum is greater the sum of the parts. Tevita Kuridrani and Adam Ashley-Cooper are probably the two that stand out and, with Israel Folau at 15, Kuridrani is probably one of two that gets picked to work back from.
The wings, however, continue the story of combinations. Adam Ashley-Cooper, Rob Horne, Drew Mitchell, Joe Tomane, Henry Speight, Nick Cummins (and Cooper or Beale depending other selections) along with James O’Connor and a few others have between them a bucket load of talent and options to work in with the rest of the team.
Again, the answer exists but now the question is dependent upon the answers to other unknown questions.
All in all it is really positive that these decisions are there to be made. It would be really nice to have some stability across a few years and this is where Australian needs to get to and will take some time.
Faith will be required by the often fickle Australian rugby community (including media). Ultimately there is only guy that can provide the answers and, right now, I would not swap with Michael Cheika.
bennalong
Guest
See you there EG
To beat the All Backs is simple. Outplay them for 80 minutes, unless you can do that, the likely hood is you will need a whole lot of luck to beat them. I don't think the All Blacks are unbeatable though, they have had some very close matches in the last two years, but teams haven't managed 80 minute performances yet.
mtiger
Roar Rookie
DCNZ, How do you beat the All Blacks? That is a daunting proposition for all Top 8 teams at the RWC. That is the only one question that does not have to be answered today or tomorrow. It is something to be tried next week, but regardless of the results, when it comes at the RWC, Wallabies can still take its best shot. How does Wallabies get out of Pool D? Of course the Wallabies will get out of Pool D. It has two chances, as a winner, and as runners-up. And outside winning the match vs Allblacks, the Wallabies will have more than even chances to win all other matches.
RobC
Roar Guru
Gday mate. Sorry late contribution, was a little tied up. Thanks for the article. Im with you. Not really clear what the final team looks like. Whatever it is, its good to have more choices across the board. Looking forward to seeing the other locks at some point. Maybe next year.
El Gamba
Roar Guru
"Lots of possibilities but problems of consistency of performance, which Australia are going to need." and I guess this is where it comes down to team culture and execution of a coaches game plan. Given thee disruption with the Wallabies last year, it would be nice to have another 12 months to work on the things you mention. That's why I hope that regardless of results this year (don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Bill in the cabinet) we continue with some stability for a few years.
El Gamba
Roar Guru
Good post Bennelong, like your take on the tactics and structure, makes sense. See you at Eden Park!! (Shouldn't be hard to find the other guy in gold)
El Gamba
Roar Guru
Not sure about the ref Sandgroper and good question about kicking. Need to score every point on offer.
El Gamba
Roar Guru
Just gotta score more points than them and beat Fiji, Wales, England and Uruguay.
Rob9
Guest
No Peter we're discussing attacking capacity which you've criticised of this pair and these stats are completely relevant to. How is a defenders beaten stat not relevant to your 12? I also want my 10 squaring up the defence and taking the ball to the line (something Cooper and Foley have not done at this level successfully) and you'd hope this would result in a defender beaten or 2 (especially at Super Rugby level). And you're still ignoring defensive stats. Between this and the thread the other day Peter, this is starting to go around in circles. Given all of this, what they've individually demonstrated at this level before (including Lealiifano's standout performance in one of his last tests against the worlds best team), the fact Toomua is one of the first inside backs picked for the Wallabies when fit and healthy, no other player has been able to effectively do a job of securing the 10 or 12 jersey as their own, Lealiifano starting puts our best goal kicker on the field (this cannot be understated how important this is); surely you recognise there are other more ridiculous 10/12 combinations floating around and all things considered, this one isn't actually that far out of left field.
Sandgroper
Guest
Thanks EG, I have two questions and no answers. Who is the ref for the Bledisloe game, and who kicks the winning goals/ drop goals in the new Wallabies?
PeterK
Roar Guru
not line breaks but line break creates defenders beaten fairly meaningless when we are discussing playmakers
bennalong
Guest
The Wallabies are still a new team regardless of combinations. But you'd have to say the 10/12 combination is likely to be Cheika's incumbents, Phipps and Foley. You could say these blokes are not world class so we are limited right here. But you underestimate Foley. And Phipps at his best is able to accelerate an attack like Smith (no, I'm not saying he's as good, but at his best......) You remember the Folau run ending in Tomane's try, but do you remember Foley, the link man? IMO "the question" immediately shifts to Cheika's game plan. We've seen simple/wide.... first game against the number 2 ranked side in the world. Then we saw more complex structures in game 2. Add to this the power of our bench. I believe this involves a change-up expected by the whole team, and that here Bernie brings his ploy, often used by Cheiks last season, to be happy to play a defensive based first half and pass wide in attack, and fairly predictable, so that a switch to predetermined lines (including the 5 metre space run by Mumm) are used to catch the defence off guard in the second half. Again, if you're of a negative bent, you say "it was only the Argies!". But I think you can see a team understanding forming here that gives us a reason to ask the question "Can we win back Bill?" and answer,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,it IS possible. I believe the scrum will hold, and the lineout will be at least adequate. I think the forewards will rise to Cheika's leadership and our backs are world class in attack and defence. Hope next week demonstrates this, then I'm off to Eden Park! (That's optimism)
Boomeranga
Guest
Meanwhile a rugby loving magistrate sentences Moala to play for the self proclaimed Guardians of the Game.
Kia Kaha
Roar Guru
Thanks for the piece El Gamba. While reading it, I couldn't help but be reminded of Australia's pool opponent and RWC host. They too are capable of putting out two quality teams or even more but therein lies the problem. What is their best team within that squad and who offer the best combinations across the park? There's a good deal of similarity about Wood, Robshaw and Morgan, for example, and Pocock, Hooper and Higganbotham or Youngs, Farrell and Burrell or Care, Ford and Tuilagi or Twelvetrees. Great for covering inevitable injuries but not great for knowing what your best combinations are and giving them continuity. The RC sides have all been tinkering but I get the feeling the likes of Meyer and Hansen know their run on side and bench. Cheika probably does too but I just have the feeling recent performances by Skelton, Higganbotham and Cooper have put doubt into his mind and players like Horwill, Phipps and Toomua have complicated the issue. The problem for Australia is that unlike SA or NZ, there are no real easy games to bring your a side up to speed. Winning the pool has to be the priority as second has an unenviable path to the final. The question, therefore is who is the run-on side for those crunch pool matches. Lots of possibilities but problems of consistency of performance, which Australia are going to need.
bennalong
Guest
RedKev If he plays for the Reds you'll be eating your words I dare say! Your views are always coloured red.
Clark
Guest
Don't worry guys. At least you'll have Skelton the cheap shot merchant on the bench along with Hooper who has now joined the club
DCNZ
Guest
How do you beat the All Blacks and how do we get out of Pool D?
Shane D
Roar Rookie
Hadn't thought of that EG but you may be right about his head space.
riddler
Guest
like it a lot rob.. and be nice to have cll kicking game as well mitchell's left boot.. good balance.. let us see what we get...
Shane D
Roar Rookie
If being in the top 3 in your position in the game is world class then I would say that Folau definately fits the bill. I noticed a great improvement in his ability to read the game this year which is expected given more time at fullback & actually playing at a high level. He is not a 'complete' player but very few are. His kicking game is not to the standard of say Dagg but I would rate his ability with the ball in hand as better. His kicking game is not called on a lot given the role he plays & the way teams he plays for drop back players to assist. Savea is the same. he has a kicking game but with his ability to run or use a superior kicker back with him why would he kick? He is a sound last line of defence & his ability under the high ball is up there with the best in the business.