A few years ago, I was watching England beat the All Blacks in a pub in south-west London. After one too many celebratory pints, a heated debate developed around whether Danny Cipriani should be picked for England.
The discussion centred around this question:
If you were the coach of a rugby team (or any sports team for that matter), and in the absence of a Dan Carter-esque superstar, on what basis would you pick your key playmaker?
Would you go for either: (a) the “Danny Cipriani”; or (b) the “Owen Farrell”?
For every ten games that you pick the “Danny Cipriani”, his flair, risk-taking and skill will guarantee you three wins. However, due to such risk-taking it will also guarantee you three losses (with the remaining four out ten games being a 50/50 call).
Conversely, the “Owen Farrell” doesn’t have the skills to win any games single-handedly, but equally, won’t have too many brain fades that will cost you the game – the outcome of all ten games you pick him are a 50/50 call.
The conundrum applies across all sports and as the beers flowed, it became clear that my love of watching the likes of Kevin Pietersen, Sonny Bill Williams, and Ronaldinho massively outweighed my appreciation of the talents of Mike Atherton, Adam Ashley-Cooper, and Roy Keane. I would always take the three wins, three losses and four 50/50s over the ten 50/50s.
This is, of course, a massive oversimplification of the complexities of international sport.
As an outsider looking in, it seems to me as though the Wallabies are facing this exact question as regards to their World Cup starting fly-half. Michael Cheika does not have the luxury of a self-selecting Johnny Wilkinson or Dan Carter and if you listen to the majority of commentators, he has to choose between Quade Cooper and Bernard Foley for the 10 jersey in England this spring.
Quade with his, at times, unbelievably quick feet, flat passing, and eye for the unexpected, will take games away from any opposition (the less said about cross-field kicks in his own in-goal area the better). Foley on the other hand is solid. Solid in the tackle, solid (if not spectacular) with the boot, and solid in attack. No more, no less.
What should Cheika do?
The correct answer surely lies with ‘The Buckley rule’. William Buckley (the American right wing, conservative author and political commentator) stated that, the Republican party should elect as it’s nominee for President the “rightwardmost viable candidate”.
Notably, he was not in favour of selecting the “rightwardmost candidate”, as presumably, while such a candidate would suit his brand of politics, they would not be able deliver a victory for the Republican party in a general election.
Similarly, in order to stand the best chance of getting out of a World Cup group containing England and Wales and to beat the likes of South Africa and New Zealand in the later stages of the tournament, Australia should pick the most attacking, skilful, and dangerous “viable” fly half on offer.
The Wallaby 10 cannot be a “flair at all costs” player as Quade Cooper can sometimes be, but nor should it be the “safe choice” of Bernard Foley.
Is this a good time to talk about Matt Toomua?
Hoges5
Roar Rookie
Interesting choice Harry. I am not certain about Wales though. I am an advocate of play "the player your opposition most worries about". QC fits for ENG/SA and possibly Wales. NZ see literally hundreds of Quades on every footy field, every week - he is not a conundrum to them, need to be careful of him, but he does not concern them. Pehaps a Toomua, Giteau/CL combo comes into play then.
Sam
Guest
Hi Daniel, well done on your first post and an excellent read! If it were anything other than a RWC year we'd probably be debating the blooding of a younger player or playing someone out of position. That said, with the World Cup looping we do need to be talking about the more established players. I really don't see how it can anyone other than Cooper, Foley or Giteau at a push.
ScrumJunkie
Guest
Love the KISS principle, spot on.
ScrumJunkie
Guest
Ps. I'm a massive Cipriani/Cooper/Michalak/Spencer fan. I'm an even bigger Carter/Merhtens/Larkham/Wilkinson fan.
ScrumJunkie
Guest
An extremely adult rant/tantrum... Well done.
ScrumJunkie
Guest
While I understand your reasoning, it's harsh to hold a poor pass by Spencer against Quade Cooper.
ScrumJunkie
Guest
I rate all the players mentioned. It's a tough choice. One thing I cannot foresee is Bernard Foley winning a World Cup. Maybe if he was kicking goals at 90%, and that's still a definite maybe. Still I have been wrong before and good luck to him. Love to see Toomua get a decent crack with CL. Don't even care who's wearing which number, but we are running out of time. You could be on to something with Gits/Toomua... But it still doesn't feel right ...
niwdEyaJ
Roar Guru
NB has a habit of making things up... Not sure what the Beale rant is about? I thought this discussion was about the 10/12 combo?
qwad
Guest
hmmm horses for courses... Sounds too sensible for a rugby site... KILL THE WISE ONE!!!
qwad
Guest
How to tackle
Machooka
Roar Guru
It's 'favourites'... so you're both wrong :) But you do bang-on about 'favorites' a lot of the time @ JayE... which I don't quiet understand 'cause any coach, anywhere on the planet, will choose who he thinks fits his bill. And as you're NOT the coach this opinion of yours becomes a moot point.
John Rugby
Guest
I agree with the sentiment, Quade hasn't played every game under Cheika though.
John Rugby
Guest
What's he confused about?
John Rugby
Guest
Exactly, and Kerevi isn't even in the squad.
RobC
Roar Guru
Thanks for the post! Answer is easy: - Eng: Cipriani - Aus: Anyone who can kick 3 points
Not Bothered
Guest
Cooper has played in all 7 games under Cheika. Beale has played in 4, started none. So Coopers the fav? No, I hear Beale is. Cooper has played in all 7 and Foley in 6. In which game did Cooper show better form than Foley? None. Yet Cooper has played twice as the starting flyhalf. Exactly who is a Cheika fav? Folau? AAC? No its the title given to players that some people think shouldnt be picked over THEIR favs. They rationalise that Cheika is only picking a player due to some kind of biased favoritism if it differs with their opinion of who should be playing. Cheika has shown no such thing. He has given Lealiifano, Toomua, Beale, Giteau and even Q.Cooper a run at 12 for example. Beale served his suspension and became eligible for selection and Cheika stood him down from a further 2 or 3 games before bringing him back into the squad. This was followed by an uproar of anger sugesting favoritism by Cheika. This made absolutely no sense at all. Cheika had EXTENDED Beales suspension and somehow people were saying this was an example of Cheikas favoritism stating "Beale isnt needed" as if sonehow Beale was now under different selection criteria specific to only him that they had impossed on Cheika from behind their keyboards and Cheika had bypassed this, therefore it was favoritism. Huh? Beale has still not started a Wallaby game under Cheika and has been played very little.
Daveyboy
Guest
Cooper looks very off his game at present. Someone here made a good point that, even when he is in form, he folds in the big pressure matches. So he may have a blinder against Uruguay but then cost us the pool match against England. No thanks, way too risky. I like the suggestion of Toomua and Giteau at 10 and 12. However, given the Toomua concussion issue, I'd have Beale on standby on a 6/2 bench or possibly Foley on a 5/3 bench. But then there is LL as well. Too many good options and Cooper is not one of them. Send him to sevens or Toulon. On that note, who thinks Cooper is the goods for Olympic sevens?
Harry Jones
Expert
Foley against Wales/NZ; QC against ENG/SA.
niwdEyaJ
Roar Guru
Yes, you're the only adult that posts on here. Well done you. Give yourself a pat on the back...
Not Bothered
Guest
As an ABs supporter that backline wouldnt worry me. Only 1 playmaker and then a bunch of ballrunners. Easy to predict.