Fans are in for a confusing time as they try to digest the significance of the NRL free-to-air television deal in comparison with the massive $2.5-billion contract signed by the AFL.
News Corporation, in its guise as Fox Sports, was snubbed by the NRL and in turn was front and centre in the AFL announcement with Rupert Murdoch himself breaking convention – and travel plans – to attend the media conference.
Rightly or wrongly, readers will be suspicious of the coverage that News provides on the issue. They’ll also be suspicious of the coverage everyone else provides, suspecting a motivation to sink the boot into old Uncle Rupe.
Here’s what I think.
I suspect someone, somewhere, has been paid an extremely large consultancy fee – hundreds of thousands of dollars – to advise the NRL of the likely changes in the digital realm over the next two years.
And that person – whoever he or she may be – has advised David Smith to hold fire because big opportunities are about to arise. Google has been mentioned but there seem to be half a dozen possibilities out there.
Smith would have seen the signing of a $925 million as keeping the wolves from the door – the wolves being recalcitrant clubs who want him to get them some money, like, yesterday.
But hell hath no fury like a media mogul scorned. It isn’t outrageous to imagine a degree of vengeances in the size of the deal done between News and the AFL (which is for one year longer than the NRL contract with Nine).
Murdoch’s lieutenants would be aware of the rebellious nature of NRL clubs and that the dramatic AFL announcement would further stir the rabble. They know it will put more pressure on Smith and his chairman, John Grant, which serves the purposes of them and of the AFL.
It was more than six months into Smith’s tenure at the NRL before I met him. I was in no hurry to do so, to be honest.
But when I got the opportunity to have a proper conversation with him, on a plane from Townsville to Sydney, I shared one of my core opinions about rugby league everywhere – we need more people running the game who don’t care if they have a job tomorrow.
We need more people who make decisions for the sport, not for themselves.
I later heard on the grapevine he had gone back to League Central and repeated the little mantra to anyone who would listen.
Not for a minute am I suggesting he would even remember that conversation now, let alone follow the theme. But it appears to me it is happening anyway – with the TV rights negotiations and with things like the shoulder charge.
I want leaders who do what they think is right and damn the consequences, who are willing to exit with head held high rather than stick around and play politics.
The $925 million is almost what the entire previous deal was worth, without pay television and digital thrown in.
No, I am not comfortable that Nine can now re-sell games to other broadcasters. That arrangement did not work in radio, where 2GB did not broadcast games to which they had rights and prevented others from doing so.
But it’s a lot of money with a big hand still to play. If the NRL gets back control of its draw, moves an Origin to weekends, locks in pre-season and post-season schedules with certainty and still gets less than the AFL, I am comfortable with that as a rugby league fan.
And the NRL has two years to capitalise on new platforms and opportunities in the online area. Sadly, if my mysterious consultant exists he or she gets paid regardless of whether he or she has led the competition up the garden path.
So if you’re trying to sift through the rhetoric and emotion and figure out if the NRL has done a good broadcast deal, the answer is this: it hasn’t done one yet, not completely.
As hard as this is to digest, it’s too early to judge Smith and the NRL just yet.
tri
Guest
My understanding is that TV stations prefer larger audiences and geography isn't that big of an issue. Sydney being the largest audience, Brisbane being number 3 and Gold coast, Wollongong, Newcastle, Canberra and the Sunshine Coast making up 6,7,8, 9 and 10. I would think Rupert would need to lock up as much content as he possibly can over the next few years. Particularly one that is easily more popular than any thing else on Fox.
peeeko
Roar Guru
you are not a numbers man. the NRL is not 3 times smaller and they are not the final numbers. time to get a new name
Von Neumann
Roar Guru
Too right birdie! Why not the whole stack - agree!
TW
Guest
As a non NRL follower I think Rupert M has to have NRL on Foxtel. However how much will they pay for it is the big question. He will not cut his nose off the spite his face. Apparently a figure of $400 million may be the starting figure. Negotiations will continue and it may get to the $700 million as mooted. What about the alleged rebel league being formed as well. Crazy stuff.
Chris
Guest
Likes of Sharks and Penrith should never entered the comp in the first place but I still view 50's and 60's as glory time for League,I think most of the 80's was the game in the dumps and then the SL years spoiled the party and now the past 4 or 5 years have not been good in my eyes for crowds (apart from SOO).
Birdy
Guest
Von N. I hope all the roarers read you comments. I reckon Rupert has no idea how to handle Smith. Smith should hit him up for $4b. Lol and get Tony Abbott to throw in ANZ as well.
Karlos
Guest
Yeh. Read this earlier today. Great article.
Von Neumann
Roar Guru
Yes, and that loss effect would be felt across their entire network Beyond the propaganda they spew forth I dont think anyone seriously thinks they won't maybe double the money currently paid - its just whats exchanged for it and getting to the point where both are happy It's 220 out of some 700ish million each year for that nrl makes, in order to double it. I wouldn't bet against seeing something more like 250-260. The nrl props up an entire pay TV platform. The pet. The real preference, that no one who knows the media took seriously __ News Ltd know they are screwed without NRL programming on their pay TV platform. They know with Dave Smith in control at NRL there is a chance they may lose NRL programming. This is why there is a coordinated attack by News Ltd paid journalists. They want a change in leadership at the NRL. They want a leader who is able to be controlled, who will give up NRL rights for a song, a new Gallop. Don't believe a word of their lies. It should be near the afl's 266m a year. I am done with news after this apart from nrl games, even theri nrl shows are simply shows made for "them" and not us.
Parra
Guest
http://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/236044283/rupert-murdoch-in-all-out-war-with-australian-rugby-league A good article worth reading on murdochs so called all out war with the NRL. Ridiculous and childish.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
Agree Von.I was also surprised that the estimate for NRL fans subscribing to Fox is 500,000.$2-350m pa min est loss in subs revenue ,plus related advertising would be a financial hit to Fox. I thought the figure was around 300,000,forgetting of course not every NRL: fan watches every game on Fox. Remembering of course the totality of revenues is what funds all sports including the AFL and the NRL.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
Sure bart.You been around 100 years ? Or is ru your fancy?Yopu appear not to understand rl fans,with that comment. The anger BTW is not directed towards the AFL's Tv deal,get te facts right.. Anger is coming from News at the NRL "blindsiding" them,they don't like to be treated this way .And they have organised their attack dogs in the media,to blanket attack David smith and John Grant,which they have been doing since they both arrived on the scene.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
Chris the match of the day yes.The other crowds were abysmal.How does 4,500 sound for a Shark's game?.>I was there .And Tv coverage was virtually non existent compared to today.Crowds then overall were pitiful,and thuggery rife. When the GB sides were smashing all before them ,of course they had that magic.As did the All Blacks with their aura.Times have changed
Hanrahan
Guest
You could do what I do. Use News Corp blogs to point out the truth (hint: it's quite different to most of the articles in their papers)
mycall
Guest
Very doubtful that Ten would presumably pay a premium to Nine only to give up the more lucrative timeslot to Fox. Commercially, it makes more sense for an FTA channel to show the match and earn more advertising $$ with the larger potential audience.
mycall
Guest
The NRL ALREADY give ALL games away in any country that doesn't have a broadcasting deal. I am currently in Hungary and can watch ALL NRL games live in HD. I normally live in France where they have a deal with Bein Sports to broadcast 3 matches live per week, the other 5 are available online for free. I think the AFL do something similar but they control the broadcast, the NRL has partnered with livestream.com
mycall
Guest
Northerner you are missing the point. If streaming was a currently viable option then Foxtel would have competition from other providers eg Google, Netflix etc to buy the content in the first place and then the NRL rights could easily be pushed to equal the AFL deal. The problem with streaming is that it is only really viable in the major cities and even then it's not certain. For the millions living in rural areas, they would not be able to get the last 4 matches from streaming. If the NRL found a streaming partner, they would still have to do a deal with foxtel to get full national coverage.
Tricky Ricky
Guest
Mascord you should stick to soccer commentary. You are out of your depth.
Karlos
Guest
Christ Rugby League fans, what xan we do to stop the Murdoch press frim their relentless attacks on our game and Dave Smith?
mycall
Guest
Likewise with Triple M... I lost a lot of respect for Matty Johns this week.
Von Neumann
Roar Guru
Great article. I wont give my long prose, you people do not believe me when I do. I never mentioned how the sport would need to take this to a stalemate, did I? Thats because no one outside the commission would want such a battle if they had to prepare for it. Yet they have prepared and none of this is unexpected. So here it is. We are here. We need steely resolve, do not melt now I reckon. Smiths a free thinker, so am I. I would have orchestrated this very same thing; and today they said we should have the former AFL CEO - I think he would have done the same thing as well. They paint Smith as a single person doing the rounds - that he acts alone - he has to run all this stuff past the commission and they have to sign off on it. channel 9 phoned fox and told them, and there were literally dozens of meetings and presentations. It was known. Did I not say tv revenue would be going up and up and up in my article; was I not correct about the last deal? Have I not been pushing expansion, and have I not been saying more FTA? So nrl makes about 700 or so for fox each year. Thats a lot of moolah. Smith has done deals that make these aussie sports deals look like peanuts. News limited are going mental. This is only a good thing. It means they are very bothered. Do not worry about people's gold fish brains. And news will be irrelevant in the future - for example because of such sites like this. Dave Smith said 2 things you probably do not remember: 1 No one will go backwards in this deal 2. Its worth at least 2 billion, maybe more. Both as good as done. __ Forget all the news stuff. The price fetched will be around 1-2-1.5 billion to my mind; it could even be more. Do not believe Ruperts words, no one did except the gullible. You see, much has happened to arrive here. There's a very good reason ch9 said they were going it alone. Maybe you can work it beyond the surface-things like losing top 4 games and certain time slots. Its like this: 47 of the top 100 shows. With simulcasting, that will jump back up to 70-80. You forget how big the sport is. Much dormant or latent support exists. Origin time is when it all comes out and nothing is close to it. They will undoubtedly simulcast matches, and it will most likely be 9 matches with expansion. Thusdays and Fridays will be the new Mondays. This whole thing is truly Orange is the new black. __ This is a part of my rugby league everywhere view. Only in rugby league would a 4-games-live FTA deal be seen as negative. FTA tv is so very highly sought after, all codes would love it but so few are able to get it - it should be exploited for mutual gain. Control of schedule, advanced payment, non exclusive tie -in with Stan, there is nothing not to like; plus its a better deal than the AFL FTA deal. Stop comparing yourselves to AFL. Even if they did not sell to fox, they'd be ahead since they have more content to sell. But the truth is, its almost certain that fox will get the rights - and the anger? No status quo, sure, but they also realize they can't leverage a partner, they need nrl more than the nrl needs them, and they simply HAVE to have it. There can be no excuses. By the time you add in 1.2-1.5 billion you have a game that is worth some 2.0 billion - 2.4, over 5 years. Why? Because this is how much your sport is worth. 2 years is a long time not to blink, and nothing has really changed, its just all spooked fox real bad. People want seamless and lazyness means they dont want to goto a new thing if they dont have to. And the price of this? A few months of fox whinging. When I do things, I usually try to accomplish at least 3 things - you have to if you are to keep up on a landscape that is walked by a conglomerate. What this deal will do is reach the fans more. And its come at a time when the new stadia deal in sydney (and townsville) are going ahead over 10 years. Coupled with more fans, wider reach, clubs will be able to get more sponsors. Foxtel only ever did things for itself for money, but now the NRL is doing things for itself for the fans. If I have ever made you see how good the game is, then I am glad. Nothing I ever wrote on here was without purpose. The stalemate has been brought about, and there can be only one winner. Fox will not risk a $700m P.A product like rugby league going somewhere else and its subscriber base melt away (around 500,000 who get fox for RL mainly). On the flip side, the NRL has the ammunition and flexibility to create a deal that will offer value to them. Fox may be nasty by trying to pressure the NRL but they need value too. Chalk this up to the commission - anyone such as them would have done this. The NRL is in the far better position, and you need to trust in the sport. This will probably be the last fox deal ever. Fox needs to heed its own actions and advice and go hard to nut out an agreement. Whats done is done, and it makes me proud actually to see RL do this. Everyone will make a lot more money this way. But nerves are understandable. If you borrow a little more confidence you will have a better disposition over it too. At the end of the day the only things that matter is not the media - thats just for show - its the negotiating table, both parties desire and their creativity levels for gaps, and pure facts. These deals have so much process involved in them, and with the fans being given priority all over - no one can really mess this up, both sides. This sport will be in front after/within 10 years in spirit, and then by 2030 this will be seen as the turning point. When have I been wrong in my overall game theory.