The 2015 AFL finals are just two weeks away, yet in this remarkably even year of footy, there is still so much movement that could happen among the top eight.
Trying to figure out the mathematics of how each team could rise and fall is enough to do your head in. Why not skip that and just check my little cheat sheet on the best and worst possibilities for each of the nine sides still in finals contention?
Fremantle
Best case scenario: The Dockers will be hoping Adelaide best West Coast on Sunday. If that happens, Freo only need a win against Melbourne in the last game of the round to secure their first minor premiership.
That would give them a softer match-up in the first week of finals, and the chance to rest some important players in the final round with no consequence.
Worst case scenario: The Eagles defeat the Crows, and then the Dockers drop the ball in Round 23 against Port Adelaide. Not only do Dockers fans suffer the indignity of having top spot stolen by their cross-town rivals, they then face the tough prospect of a qualifying final against Hawthorn.
West Coast
Best case scenario: The Eagles score wins against Adelaide and St Kilda in the two last weeks of the season while seeing Fremantle stumble with a loss to either Melbourne or Port Adelaide, and swoop in to claim top spot on the ladder. It might not make a huge difference to their finals campaign, but Eagles fans get to remind Dockers fans about it every day for the next 30 or 40 years.
Worst case scenario: The Eagles somehow put in shockers against both the Crows and the Saints, allowing Hawthorn or Sydney to overtake them for second spot and then face a trip to either Victoria or New South Wales in the first week of finals.
Hawthorn
Best case scenario: Either West Coast or Fremantle seriously mess up in the final two weeks of the season by losing both their games, allowing the Hawks to jump in and grab a top-two spot, and therefore a home qualifying final at the MCG.
Worst case scenario: In an almost impossible twist of fate, the Hawks somehow lose their remaining two games of the season to Brisbane (18th) and Carlton (17th), and drop out of the top four to be overtaken by Richmond, the Western Bulldogs or North Melbourne.
Sydney
Best case scenario: In the Swans’ last two games of the season, they somehow defeat St Kilda and Gold Coast to the tune of about 200 points each, while at the same time West Coast lose both their remaining games, allowing the Swans to jump into second spot. A tad unrealistic.
Worst case scenario: The Swans drop either of their last two games – with St Kilda probably the bigger threat of the two – allowing one of Richmond, the Western Bulldogs or North Melbourne to catch up and push them out of the top four.
Richmond
Best case scenario: Sydney drop one of their last two games while the Tigers finish with wins against Essendon and North Melbourne in the final fortnight, allowing them to jump into the top four and gain a valuable double chance in finals.
Worst case scenario: Adelaide win their last two games and the Tigers drop one or both of theirs, seeing the Crows leapfrog the Tigers and forcing Richmond to travel interstate for another knock-out final at Adelaide Oval in the first week. Could theoretically miss finals altogether if they lose their last two by big margins and Geelong win their last two.
Western Bulldogs
Best case scenario: Much like the Tigers – either the Swans or the Hawks slip up badly, while the Dogs snag two wins straight and move into the top four. Requires them to defeat North Melbourne at home this week and Brisbane on the road next.
Worst case scenario: The Dogs drop their match to North this week (or less likely, to the Lions next week) and drop into seventh or eighth, meaning they face an away final. Only becomes a serious problem if Adelaide leapfrog them into fifth or sixth and they have to face an interstate trip. Like the Tigers, they could theoretically miss finals altogether if they badly lose their last two and Geelong win their last two.
North Melbourne
Best case scenario: The Kangaroos rack up wins eighth and ninth-in-a-row over the Bulldogs and Richmond in the next two weeks, then enter a home elimination final against one of those two teams with the supreme confidence of knowing they’re the better team. Can still theoretically make top four if the Hawks or Swans slip up.
Worst case scenario: They get stopped in their tracks by the Dogs and the Tigers in successive weeks, seeing their percentage drop, while Adelaide defeat West Coast and Geelong win their last two, and both clubs overtake North on the ladder seeing them finish ninth and miss the finals.
Adelaide
Best case scenario: If North Melbourne beat the Western Bulldogs and Richmond in the next two weeks and Adelaide win against West Coast and Geelong, the Crows could still finish sixth and host a home final against either the Bulldogs or the Tigers.
Bizarrely, they could still finish third by winning both their remaining games if Hawthorn and Sydney both lose all remaining games, and Richmond, the Bulldogs and North all lose at least one more game.
Worst case scenario: They fall short against West Coast on Sunday and then again against Geelong next week, finishing ninth and missing finals altogether.
Geelong
Best case scenario: The Cats bank a win against Collingwood on Friday night before watching Adelaide lose to West Coast on Sunday, meaning the Cats get to host the Crows in a do-or-die virtual elimination final in Round 23 at Simonds Stadium, where the winner will finish eighth and play finals.
Worst case scenario: Either the Cats get upset by Collingwood, or Adelaide record a win over West Coast, ruling Geelong out of finals and making their Round 23 match with the Crows a dead rubber.
The key matches
North Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs, Saturday August 29, Etihad Stadium 4:35pm AEST
Adelaide vs West Coast, Sunday August 30, Adelaide Oval 1:10pm AEST
Richmond vs North Melbourne, Friday September 4, Etihad Stadium 7:50pm AEST
Geelong vs Adelaide, Saturday September 5, Simonds Stadium 1:05pm AEST
joe b
Guest
Most likely based on their form in last year's GF...coupled with fluctuating performances this season.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
I take it you mean for the first week of the finals?
Roger of Sydney
Guest
Its a worry that every one has written off the Swans as no hope in the finals. Is that based on how they have played , which is crap, or how they can play which means they could beat anyone and everyone. The fat lady has not sung yet. Best if Swans play Freo rather than West Coast in first final. The next two weeks will tell if the Swans are back to what they should be. Still see Hawthorn and West Coast as the best options
dontknowmuchaboutfootball
Guest
Best case scenario: Freo drop their remaining two games, while both WC and HAW win both of theirs. Fremantle travel to the MCG to face HAW in the first QF, go all 2012 EF / 2013 QF v. Geelong on them and smash them to pieces, thereby striking fear into the hearts of every other team in the competition, HAW most of all. From there Freo fly home and enjoy a little holiday before walking it in for the PF and then again on the big day.
Dean N
Guest
I agree with you Jax. The reason some want us to finish 2nd is to get Hawthorn out of the way and only meet them again in the GF if they make it that far. I would prefer to meet them in a Preliminary Final at Subiaco.
Don Freo
Guest
Almost how I think it will happen, Johnno...except I'd swap Bullies and NM around. I'd most prefer to play WC in the GF...not because they are weaker...they ARE our biggest threat. I want Freo to play them because it will be a derby and make the GF even better as a day.
Jamie Radford
Roar Pro
Great article Josh. Though finishing first for West Coast would make more of a difference than you say I think, as they would most likely play the Swans rather than Hawthorn in the first week of finals.
jax
Guest
I don't think it matters very much where we finish now so long as it's top 2.
Dean N
Guest
Many West Coast fans think that the Eagles are better off finishing second.
Perry Bridge
Guest
Buddy returns - could yet unbalance the forward line that smashed the Giants last week. Pyke will have a battle against the high leaping Holmes and the improving Hickey. The absence of Parker more likely a big factor for the Swans in September. Especially if Geelong wins on Friday night then North in particular will be barracking for the Eagles. If Collingwood wins then largely the 5-8 relax - although keeping Adelaide away from a home final is key. And of course - should the Swans slip up then a top 4 spot would be on offer.
johno
Guest
This needs to be expanded a bit more Best Case scenario for Freo given its 1v4, 2v3 in the first week then (loser 1v4) v (winner 5 v 8) or (loser 2v3) v (winner 6 v 7) second week etc Best case scenario for Freo Finish top play Western Bulldogs in week 1 after the Swans collapse. Thrash dogs, West Coast beat the Hawks Week off while the Hawks lose to North Melbourne who had defeated Richmond Play North Melbourne in third week. Thrash Norths Play Western Bulldogs in grand final after they beat Adelaide in second week and West Coast in third week Thrash Bulldogs ..... Premiers
Wilson
Roar Guru
But that is what I have loved about this season it has been close no one has really (other then Freo) has go that far out in front 1 or 2 loses and you could be out of the 8. or be out of the 8 win 3 in a row and be back in it. For me it has made it a more interesting season. Unless you are a Lion, Sun or Blues fan.
Josh
Expert
Agree Wilson, it's their danger game. They probably win it, but the Saints bring a lot of effort to the table, and it is an away game. If they dropped it I would not be blown away.
Josh
Expert
There is some serious swing potential there. I mean, it relies of stuff like Hawthorn suffering successive losses to Brisbane and Carlton, but the idea that Adelaide with two weeks left could finish anywhere between ninth and third is just crazy.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Great piece Josh! I ran the numbers yesterday and I was amazed to find that theoretically the Swans or Hawks could drop right to the away elimination finals spots! Such is the closeness of the ladder around that mark.
Wilson
Roar Guru
I think you are right in your thinking that the Swans game against the Saints is there danger game. they still don't look there best and the saint IF the are kicking straight could well trip them up.