While the top eight is all but settled, some matches in Round 23 will go a long way towards shaping the finals series, and the battle for the wooden spoon will go down to the wire.
Richmond can keep their top-four hopes alive when they host North Melbourne, while the Brisbane Lions will attempt to avoid the wooden spoon by sabotaging the Western Bulldogs’ finals preparations.
Having already secured the minor premiership, Fremantle will send a second-string side to face a Port Adelaide side which cannot make the finals.
The Sydney Swans should all but lock up a qualifying final date with the Dockers when they host the Gold Coast Suns at the SCG.
The regular season will conclude with traditional rivals Collingwood and Essendon meeting in a meaningless match, as neither side can make the finals after contrastingly disappointing seasons for both clubs.
Richmond versus North Melbourne
Not since Jason McCartney announced his retirement shortly after making an emotional comeback to the game following his survival of the 2002 Bali bombings has Richmond and North Melbourne met on a Friday night.
The two clubs face off in the only match of the round to involve two teams currently in the eight, and it will give both the Tigers and Kangaroos the chance to flex their muscles a week out from the commencement of the finals.
The Tigers survived a spirited performance from Essendon to win by 27 points, doing so without captain Trent Cotchin, who missed due to a back injury, while the Roos had their seven-game winning streak ended by the Western Bulldogs.
While this may be a Richmond home game, the fact that it is at Etihad Stadium could advantage the Roos, for whom this is their regular home ground. It is a bit of a throwback to Round 18, 2013, when Melbourne took their home game against the Roos to this ground, with the ‘visitors’ winning by 122 points.
Recent history also favours Brad Scott’s men, who have won their last five meetings against Richmond, including by 35 points in Hobart in Round 6.
Prediction: North Melbourne by 12 points.
Geelong Cats versus Adelaide Crows
This had been billed as a ‘win to get in’ match when the schedule for Round 23 was announced in August, but the Cats’ are unable to make the finals for the first time since 2006.
Instead the clash could be dubbed as the ‘Patrick Dangerfield Cup’ as the Crows midfielder is widely tipped to return to Geelong at the end of this season.
It’s their first meeting since Round 1 last year, after their Round 14 clash at the Oval was cancelled in the aftermath of the tragic passing of Crows coach Phil Walsh.
Since taking over as caretaker coach, Scott Camporeale has done an impressive job in keeping the Crows in the eight, compiling an 8-2 win-loss record to stake his claim for the top job on a full-time basis.
The Crows can keep their hopes of a home final alive, but they have to defy a poor record at Simonds Stadium to do so, having not won at the venue since 2003.
Geelong will be out to finish a disappointing season with a victory in front of their home fans, with the futures of the likes of Steve Johnson, Jimmy Bartel, Corey Enright and James Kelly still unclear.
While the Cats have the home ground advantage, the Crows’ recent impressive form should prove too much in the end.
Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 20 points.
Brisbane Lions versus Western Bulldogs
For the Lions, this is their last chance to avoid the wooden spoon, especially with Carlton very unlikely to beat Hawthorn later in the day.
They’ll have to pull off an almighty upset to do so, with the Bulldogs still with a chance to secure fifth place and a home final, depending on the result of the Tigers vs Kangaroos match from the previous night.
Luke Beveridge’s men bounced back well from a 77-point loss to the West Coast Eagles, and the six-day break, to defeat North Melbourne and thus warm up for their first finals appearance since 2010.
But to boost their chances of hosting a home final, they’ll have to overcome a poor record at the Gabba, having won only once at the venue since 2007 and not since 2009.
Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 25 points.
Port Adelaide versus Fremantle
The Dockers sealed top spot last week by defeating Melbourne by 54 points, and knowing that they cannot be dislodged from the top, have decided to rest up to 11 of their best players, including captain Matthew Pavlich, defender Luke McPharlin and ruckman Aaron Sandilands.
This will see Ross Lyon’s men start as underdogs against a Port Adelaide side that are finishing this season strongly after having struggled with the weight of expectations in 2015.
The Power upset the Suns by 37 points on the Gold Coast last week and will be keen to perform in front of their fans for one final time before they start their preparations for season 2016.
Defeating the minor premiers would be the perfect way to finish off a disappointing season – and the Dockers’ intention to send their so-called B-side to the Oval will swing the favouritism the way of Ken Hinkley’s men.
Prediction: Port Adelaide by 20 points.
Hawthorn versus Carlton
Season 2015 has been a horror year for Carlton, and last week’s 81-point loss to the Greater Western Sydney Giants is indicative of the mammoth task incoming coach Brendon Bolton faces in 2016.
The Blues took it right up to the Giants in the first half before falling away, with Bolton and list manager Stephen Silvagni watching on in the stands.
John Barker will coach his final game for the Blues on Saturday against Hawthorn, a club he represented between 1998 and 2006, having served as caretaker coach following the sacking of Mick Malthouse in May.
While the Blues were being beaten in Sydney, the Hawks beat the Lions in Launceston, doing so without suspended captain Luke Hodge who will again miss this week before returning for the finals.
The Hawks remain a chance of finishing in the top two for a fourth consecutive year, but they have to beat Carlton, and hope that St Kilda causes a boilover in the west later in the evening.
It is more likely that the Hawks will travel west in the first week of the finals, but even so, their game against the Blues will provide the two-time reigning premiers with a chance to fine-tune.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 50 points.
Sydney Swans versus Gold Coast Suns
If the Swans defeat the Suns, the AFL fixturing staff will be left embarrassed after they gave the Swans, minor premiers and grand finalists last year, the luxury of playing both expansion clubs twice when the 2015 draw was released last October.
Already the Swans have defeated the Suns by 52 points on the Gold Coast earlier this season, while they also took the maximum points from their two clashes against intracity rivals the GWS Giants.
With the Suns having endured a horror season due mainly to injuries and disciplinary issues involving key players, it threatens to get very ugly in the Suns’ second ever visit to the SCG.
The Swans thrashed 13th-placed St Kilda at Etihad Stadium last week, with Lance Franklin subbed out in the third quarter as he was carefully managed upon his return from injury.
Josh Kennedy racked up another 30-plus disposals to firm in Brownlow Medal betting, and it will take a monumental effort from the Suns to stop he, Buddy and a host of other Swans who are starting to regain form a week out from the finals.
The Swans should win in a canter – after which they can set their sights on minor premiers Fremantle in Perth the following week.
Adding some spice to this match is Nick Malceski returning to the SCG for the first time since leaving the Swans at the end of last season, while Kurt Tippett will also bring up his 150th AFL match.
Prediction: Sydney Swans by 75 points.
West Coast Eagles versus St Kilda
The Eagles are coming off a poor loss to the Adelaide Crows, which has left their hopes of hosting a qualifying final next week in serious jeopardy. As the Hawks will be expected to have beaten the Blues earlier in the day, the Eagles simply must win if they are to eventually finish second and host a final in Week 1.
They are up against a St Kilda side who, after a competitive first quarter, last week wilted to the pressure applied by the Swans and eventually crashed to their worst defeat of the season.
The trip to Perth will offer no respite, even though the Saints have made some progress this season, going from four wins last year to six.
Prediction: West Coast Eagles by 60 points.
Melbourne versus GWS Giants
The first of two matches on a meaningless Sunday will see Melbourne attempt to break an eight-year, 22-match losing streak at Etihad Stadium when they face the GWS Giants for the second time this season.
Season 2015 can’t end soon enough for the Dees, who have lost their last four matches.
That has led to questions as to whether the club has made any progress under Paul Roos, who continually insists they have, on the basis of their six victories for the year, as many as they did in 2013-14.
Making matters worse, captain Nathan Jones could miss after he was subbed out in the second quarter of his 200th game against Fremantle last week with a foot injury.
But there can be nothing negative said about the Giants, who produced a stunning 170-point turnaround last Saturday to thrash Carlton for the second time this season, and record their biggest winning margin in the process, 81 points.
That took some of the frustration out of being unable to make the finals, but at least Leon Cameron’s men can finish 2015 strongly and then start preparing for an expected September charge in 2016.
That being said, expect them to show Melbourne no mercy under the roof this Sunday.
Prediction: GWS Giants by 40 points.
Collingwood versus Essendon
Collingwood may have dropped out of finals contention after their 91-point loss to Richmond in Round 21, but they did produce one of their best performances for the season by defeating the Geelong Cats by 48 points last week.
The win, just their second since the Round 12 bye, was set up by a strong opening quarter from which the Cats didn’t recover, and gave fans plenty to cheer about following yet another disappointing second half of the season.
Pies fans, and Eddie McGuire in particular, will be hoping for more of the same against Essendon.
The Bombers were once again competitive against Richmond but couldn’t quite pull off the upset, going down by 27 points. Still, it was an encouraging performance and it will give whoever succeeds James Hird as coach a lot to think about in 2016.
As much as both sides would love to finish their seasons off on a winning note, Collingwood’s victory last week, as well as in the Anzac Day clash earlier this year, will see them start favourites.
Prediction: Collingwood by 20 points.
Should results in this round go as I predict, the final ladder will be as follows:
1. Fremantle
2. West Coast Eagles
3. Hawthorn
4. Sydney Swans
5. Western Bulldogs
6. Adelaide Crows
7. Richmond
8. North Melbourne
9. Port Adelaide
10. GWS Giants
11. Collingwood
12. Geelong Cats
13. St Kilda
14. Melbourne
15. Essendon
16. Gold Coast Suns
17. Carlton
18. Brisbane Lions
Qualifying finals
Fremantle versus Sydney Swans, Domain Stadium
West Coast Eagles versus Hawthorn, Domain Stadium
Elimination finals
Western Bulldogs versus North Melbourne, MCG
Adelaide Crows versus Richmond, Adelaide Oval
Don Freo
Guest
Last 2 games (Hawks v Freo) are 1-1. Melbourne are the only easy side of those we played twice. You had Carlton AND Essendon...and really blew that. Swans won't be a problem. North and WC are the 2 threats.
Jacob Bevis
Roar Rookie
I hope the dogs win!
Penster
Guest
Nice baiting, but look at the draw, Don, and who Freo have played twice in 2015, and where those teams finished last year: Port (5th), WCE (9th), Melbourne (17th), North (6th) and Richmond (8th). Don't see any top 4 there. SUCH a shame the Hawks only got one chance to belt the living daylights out of Freo. Once was enough wasn't it Don? I hope the Purple people make it to the big dance, it would be nice for them to actually win something meaningful, like a premiership for example, while that window is still open ........ just. And don't write off the Swans, they'll be ready.
Perry Bridge
Guest
Rich v North, If North can't 'rest' players like Goldie - then look for Daw to come in for Petrie with a corkie from training - and Daw rucks 80% of the game with Goldie subbed out with tightness......just tightness. Boomer is of an age where he just needs to keep moving. Thomas may return with his foot? Gives someone else a breather. and why not bring in Wells in the green vest and rest Dal Santo? Who knows what we'll see.
Perry Bridge
Guest
For North to have that happen you either need : BOTH Rich and Dogs lose and Crows win to allow Adelaide into 5th and North remain 8th on %, or, even if Dogs win, that Ade win, move to 6th, and North SMASHES Richmond by enough to overtake on % and put Rich 8th and North 7th. The chances of the Dogs losing? The chances of North smashing Richmond by so much? It's more critical for Richmond to win - simply because if Adelaide win and the Dogs win then Richmond MUST win otherwise Adelaide goes above them. If Rich lose by any normal reasonable margin - then they are in trouble - basically North has to beat them by around 95 point to overtake on %.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
Did you play with the scenario of North, Adelaide and Brisbane winning? Unlikely but plausible scenario. That would have Adelaide (5th) vs North (8th) in Adelaide. If North win then they have to rely on the Bulldogs winning to avoid a trip to Adelaide. Bookies have Brisbane a 15% chance of winning so you are looking at an 85% scenario of North playing in Melbourne if they win their match and a 100% scenario of them playing in Melbourne if they lose. Also given their record against the three sides this year (Adelaide loss by 77, Bulldogs loss by 23, Tigers win by 35), Richmond would be their preferred finals opponent. They should get a good look at Richmond this week and work out the right game plan for next week. They will lose by 60 this week and beat them by 20 next week.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
Yep. Should be a 1 in front of that 20. I would have Port by 20 against your best side.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
Richmond vs North - This is a no brainer. Richmond wins and wins well. North will rest a few key players and the others will be instructed to take it easy. There is literally nothing for North Melbourne to gain by winning this game. If they win it they come up against the Doggies or the Crows and potentially face a trip to Adelaide. If they lose they play Richmond again next week, which given the recent history would be the preferred choice of opponent. Tigers also have a bad taste in their mouth from the last time they met and want to right that wrong. A commanding win of 50 points or more will also slip them above Sydney on the ladder, although retaining that position will depend on the Sydney GC clash. Richmond by 70 points Geelong vs Adelaide - The previous nights result will have a big bearing here. Should North win then a Crow win is a guarantee home final. Richmond win then they need a win and to hope the Bulldogs, who start half an hour later, will need a loss. The way I see this panning out is Richmond winning and Adelaide putting in an effort in the opening half. Start of the third quarter they should know the half time score in the Brisbane Dogs game and expecting the Dogs to have snuck out to a match winning margin by then. Knowing they are consigned to seventh regardless they will drop off and Geelong will get up and send its retiring stars off on a high note. Geelong by 15 points Brisbane vs Western Bulldogs - Brisbane have 16 players on their injury list and can barely field a team. Like they have been for the last month they will put up a fight for a quarter before capitulating and the Dogs should run riot on them. They should put this contest to bed by halftime and look forward to a home final against the Crows next week. Bulldogs by 30 points Port Adelaide vs Fremantle - With 5 injuries/suspensions to the best 22 and being allowed to rest a further 11 expect something resembling a VFL team to run onto the park for Freo. As for Port, well they hate Freo, are in form with 5 wins in their last 6 and I cannot see them taking it easy on this B side. They will be out to finish on a high and the huge class discrepancy and home ground advantage they will have should ensure a belting of ridiculous magnitude. Port by 140 points Hawthorn vs Carlton - The Blues can barely field a team while the Hawks only have Ceglar and Hodge out of their top 22 missing. Even though they only need a win and not percentage, even at 80% pace they should be able to coast to a very easy win. I don't expect them to win by a ridiculous margin and I expect the Blues to put up a bit of a fight. Hawthorn will use this as a training drill once they have done enough to put the game into a winning position. Hawks by 45 points Sydney vs Gold Coast - The second of the three games where only a win is necessary. Sydney have belted sides the last two weeks to improve their terrible percentage. Now all they need to do is win. With percentage not a factor, expect them to get 50 points up and then preserve themselves and be outscored late. Sydney by 30 points West Coast vs St Kilda - Last game of the win but don't need percentage games. Last weeks effort left the coach bitter so could be a bit of backlash in this game, but a few players are also nursing some niggly injuries. Like the other two games I am expecting the Eagles to jump out to a game winning lead in the first half then some self preservation for the final, allowing the Saints to come back late. West Coast by 30 points Melbourne vs GWS - Just the sight of Tom Scully is enough to get an extra 10% out of the demon players and tipping the upset here. Its the one game they would love to win to stick it to Scully and tipping the upset here. Melbourne by 5 points Collingwood vs Essendon - If the pies of last week turn up this will be a no contest. If the pies of the week before that do then we will have a game. Swan will be a big loss for the Pies but even without him they should have a little too much class for woeful Essendon and get the job done. Collingwood by 15
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
"the AFL fixturing staff will be left embarrassed after they gave the Swans, minor premiers and grand finalists last year, the luxury of playing both expansion clubs twice when the 2015 draw was released last October." I am not sure why they would be embarrassed. Both GWS and the Suns were expected to make strides this year. They also gave the Swans two matches against the Hawks (Premiers) and Power (preliminary finalists) and a away match to the other preliminary finalist (North Melbourne).
Don Freo
Guest
It's SUCH a shame Hawthorn lost so many games to easy sides. The AFL even gave The Hawks a game against Carlton twice...once for the last round just in case they needed a hand to make the top 2.
Don Freo
Guest
I'd have Gold Coast a lot closer to Sydney...a strange side, Sydney. Longmire to Essendon?
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
You reckon? Playing with the ladder predictor widget on the AFL site, if North, Adelaide and the Doggies win (all likely), then North stay in Melbourne and take on the Doggies, while Richmond travel to Adelaide.
13th Man
Guest
If North win there is more of a chance that they could end up having to head to Adelaide. North are better off losing which means they stay in Melbourne for sure and replay Richmond again the week after. Also it means Adelaide have to travel which is good because i think most other teams would like to see them go out. Dangerous side! Adelaide V Western Bulldogs will be a cracker!
13th Man
Guest
Geez you've gone generous on Freo. I'm a Freo fan and i think we will lose by a lot more than 20.
Penster
Guest
Bolts might give them a leg up against a side he knows very well. Hawks will be resting a few and avoiding injuries too. Hawks by 25.
Perry Bridge
Guest
As a North fan - we'll rock up on Friday night and almost prefer to lose. And just hope for no injuries or suspensions. Richmond desperate to win - as - if we DID beat Richmond than an Adelaide win in Geelong could see the Tiges heading to Adelaide week 1 of finals and North play the Doggies at the MCG (assuming the Doggies knock over Brissie). So - Richmond - must win. If North win we can only really get to 7th - should Adelaide lose. We'd then play Richmond. Most likely at the MCG? There's really not much for North to play for other than to really annoy Richmond fans.
Col from Brissie
Guest
As a Carlton supporter I will take a 50 point loss to the Hawks. With only 25 players to pick from I would think a 100 plus point loss is more likely.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Sod it, I'm tipping us this weekend. Lions to spay the doggies and finish our season with a scrap of dignity. Either that or we get pumped by 80 points.
Avatar
Roar Guru
CORRECTION: "Since taking over as caretaker coach, Scott Camporeale has done an impressive job in keeping the Crows in the eight, compiling an 8-2 win-loss record to stake his claim for the top job on a full-time basis." That record should be 6-2 not 8-2.