NRL finals stats: Attack the difference in week one

The first week of the NRL finals kicks off this Friday as the Roosters host Melbourne, with the Dragons meeting the Bulldogs at ANZ Stadium on Saturday.

Melbourne Storm may be missing key player Billy Slater, but the Sydney Roosters’ recent injuries to Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Mitchell Pearce will even the contest.

Meanwhile, the Canterbury Bulldogs appear to have the upper hand over the St George-Illawarra Dragons, who will be missing Gareth Widdop.

Roosters vs Storm
7:55pm, Friday 11 September, Allianz Stadium

The History

Overall: This is the 30th game between these two sides dating back to 1998. It stands at 14 wins for the Roosters, 15 for the Storm.

Finals: Amazingly, in spite of these sides both having played in 42.7 per cent of the finals games in the NRL era (67 of the 157 finals matches: Roosters 32, Storm 35), this is only the second time they have met in a finals match. The first being a 26-16 win for the Roosters at Olympic Park, Melbourne in 1998.

The last 10: The last 10 games between the sides have been split down the middle.

At this venue: There have been 10 games between the sides at this venue with the Roosters winning seven and the Storm three. They last met here in Round 12 on June 1 with the Roosters winning easily 24-2.

Defence

Team Stats – average per game 2015

These two sides have been the benchmark for watertight defence in 2015 and there is barely a split hair between them. While the Storm concede slightly more metres, the Roosters miss more tackles.

Whereas in the past I’ve made the case that the Roosters have in large part maintained the integrity of their try line through deliberately conceding penalties to give their defensive line time to reset, this season their penalties conceded has plummeted from the highest in the NRL in 2013 and 2014 to the NRL average this season.

Notably, the Storm, the second highest transgressor in 2014, have also conceded just the NRL average in 2015.

Given these strong defensive stats from both sides, you can expect a very tight game.

Player Stats

In recent years the top NRL sides have started breaking away from having one main tackler – usually the lock or hooker – who consistently made 45-plus tackles a game, with the rest of the pack averaging in the low 20s. Now we are seeing three or four players in the pack committing to large tackling workloads.

These players each work a zone: the centre, right side or left side. The Roosters and the Storm are the leading proponents of this. While captains Jakes Friend and Cameron Smith lead the way for their respective sides, they’ve got a gang of big, fast and strong forwards sharing the tackling load and holding the line.

Unsurprisingly the biggest defensive liabilities for both sides are in the backs. James Maloney is a turnstile, missing four tackles on average a match. It puts a big burden on the defenders on either side of him. Cooper Cronk will be aiming Kevin Proctor or Tohu Harris at Maloney all night.

The weakness for the Storm is Will Chambers. The Queenslander has had a pretty strong year in attack, however his average of two missed tackles a game will be tested by Blake Ferguson and Shaun Kenny-Dowall.

As you can see, both Maloney and Smith are their sides’ biggest transgressors. Both give away tactical penalties when the need arises.

Attack

Team Stats – average per game 2015

While the two sides are hard to separate in defence, in attack there is a clear difference. The Roosters score almost one extra try per game over the Storm, break a massive nine extra tackles a game and average an extra 153 metres a game more than the Purple Pride.

While the Roosters’ attack is around the same level of excellence as it was last year, the Storm’s attack has fallen away badly. The reason? Two words: Billy Slater. Without Billy the Kid the Storm attack has become pedestrian. Only Cooper Cronk’s superb generalship keeps them competitive. He’ll need to be at his very best in this game.

You will note that the Storm are still playing their error free brand of football very well. Once more they have made the fewest errors of any side. However, as we’ve explored before, errors aren’t just a sign of sloppy play, they are also a strong indicator of adventurous attack. You can be sure that the Roosters’ high error rate has far more to do with their rapier like attack than it does with ineptitude.

Player Stats

We all could see that Roger Tuivasa-Sheck was special when he turned up a few seasons ago. I was one who questioned the wisdom of not having him at fullback last season. This season he has destroyed the joint.

Fifteen linebreaks, 10 try assists, 10 line break assists and NRL leading stats in metres per game (216) and tackle breaks per game (6.5) are the stats of a champion. The Storm must keep the New Zealand-bound fullback quiet or they’ll pay dearly.

While Blake Green has played a useful role next to Cronk, he is no Gareth Widdop. Further, the real threat from the Melbourne attack is quite predictable as it clearly comes from the right hand side of Chambers and Marika Koroibete.

There has been a lot of talk of young Cameron Munster going from strength to strength in place of Slater at the back. If the Storm are genuinely to challenge both in this match and in 2015 he must grab the bull by the horns now and provide the deadly attack that the Storm are so sorely missing.

The danger men
As stated above, Tuivasa-Sheck is on fire. He’ll cut the Storm up given half the chance.

This is a huge occasion for Ferguson, the last time he played finals was against the Rabbitohs in 2012 while playing for the Raiders. He’ll be itching for a big game and targeting Will Chambers defence.

Team leaders from the Storm Smith and Cronk are the Roosters’ biggest hurdle. Their excellent and experienced leadership can ensure their side stays focused in the heat of battle. The Roosters need to put as much pressure on them as they can.

Who is going to win and why
The last time these two sides met was back in Round 12 at this venue when the Storm had just lost Slater. The Roosters won 24-2 that night. However, the absence of Slater and Dale Finucane for the Storm has now been offset by the absence of Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Mitchell Pearce for the Roosters.

So the big question is: “can Jackson Hastings stand up against the clinical experience of the Storm in his very first finals outing?” I reckon he’ll do it tough, though the Roosters certainly have the individual strike power to overcome that.

However, I reckon the Storm are going to strangle the life out of the Roosters in this game.

Prediction: Storm by two

Bulldogs vs Dragons
5.50pm, Saturday 12 September, ANZ Stadium

The History

Overall: This will be the 147th match between these sides dating back to 1935. It currently stands at Bulldogs 55, Dragons 85, with five draws.

Finals: In spite of these two sides having played 79 seasons against each other, during which time they have taken part in 225 finals matches (Bulldogs 90, St George Illawarra 135), this is only the 12th finals contest between them. The Bulldogs have won seven, the Dragons five.

The first finals clash was back in 1942 when a young Ray Lindwall, the future Australian fast bowler and Test captain, played fullback for the Dragons and scored five conversions for the Red V in their 25-10 win over the Dogs (then Berries).

They have also faced off in two grand finals: the 1979 Dragons triumph and the 1985 Bulldogs victory. This is the first time they’ve met in a final since the 2001 series when the Dragons defeated the Bulldogs 23-22.

This match is the Dragons’ first finals match since 2011. Only three players remain from that match: Mitch Rein, Jason Nightingale and Trent Merrin.

The last 10: The Bulldogs have won six of the last 10 games between these sides. However, they’ve also won six of the last seven. The Dragons’ last victory over the Bulldogs was their 31-6 victory back in Round 6 this year.

At this venue: There has only been one final between these sides played at this venue. That was in 2001 when the Dragons defeated the Bulldogs 23-22.

Defence

Team Stats – average per game 2015

The Bulldogs defend well. They allow the third fewest line breaks and miss the second fewest tackles. However, for all of that excellent work they still have conceded the average amount of tries this season and are the fourth worst side for metres conceded per game.

The Dragons only truly strong defensive stat is that they only concede three tries a game on average, the fourth best defensive result in the NRL this year. Overall, not much separates these sides in defence.

Player Stats – defence

As with the Roosters and the Storm, both these sides have a number of players with high tackle counts. I’ve been particularly impressed with the Dragons’ offensive defence this season. Tyson Frizell, Jack de Belin, Michael Cooper and Merrin have monstered sides at times this year and completely destroyed their go forward and any attacking structure they might have had.

They’ll need to be at their smothering, aggressive best against the Bulldogs pack. The Dogs tacklers are also strong. However, can Damien Cook keep up his strong form in the cauldron of finals footy?

The Dogs’ halves will be targeted in defence as they regularly miss tackles. However, so do Benji Marshall and Gareth Widdop. Further, Peter Mata’utia and his 2.3 missed tackles a game will be targeted by the deadly Josh Morris.

Attack

Team Stats – average per game 2015

Here’s where the real difference between these sides is. The Dragons’ attack has made the least line breaks and scored the fewest tries in 2015. For all of their excellent defence and great go forward from their pack, they just can’t cross the stripe regularly enough to be a genuine threat.

One of the reasons for this is that, while their overall error rate is pretty good, their backs have very poor handling. Conversely, the Bulldogs can put on a score when they are on song. They have scored 26 more tries than the Dragons this season.

Player Stats

These stats show how the ball control of the Dragons’ backs have let them down. Their entire backline averages 16.5 errors. How many tries have gone begging as a result? For the Bulldogs their worst error proponents are on their wings where errors are more excusable. In the middle big Sam Kasiano has made 19 errors so far this year. He needs to improve his handling if the Dogs are to seriously challenge this year.

One of the issues that the Dragons have is that their star player in the backline isn’t effective. The above stats show that, while Josh Dugan may break 5.4 tackles a game and average 163 metres, he doesn’t really get results. While his seven tries so far this season are reasonable, his single try assist and measly two line break assists place him well behind every other regular fullback playing in the 2015 finals.

If the Dragons are seriously going to challenge, Dugan as to seriously lift his game. No Gareth Widdop for the Dragons is a huge hit to their chances.

The danger men
The problem for the Dragons is that Dugan is their best chance of opening up the Bulldogs’ defence. While there is no doubting that he has the ability, his record suggests that he won’t produce the goods.

The Dragons’ best chance lies with Frizell, De Bellin, Merrin, Cooper and Rein, putting the Bulldogs off their game with their determined defence and then somehow scraping up enough points to win.

For the Bulldogs the Morris twins are the key danger. Fast, strong and talented, they can break tackles, lines and their oppositions hearts.

It’s been a while since my favourite Bulldog, Josh Reynolds, had a blinder. He may well hit top form against the Dragons.

Who is going to win and why
Put simply, the Bulldogs are going to win. The Dragons struggle to score at the best of times and with Widdop out that task just got even harder.

Drew Hutchison comes in at five-eighth for just his third game of the season, boasting just one try assist to his name. The Dogs’ defence will smother the Red V attack, their stellar backline will then score the points to take them to week two of the finals.

Prediction: Bulldogs 13-plus