Imagine an NRL season that went from start to finish without silly interruptions from pointless mid-season representative fixtures. Never going to happen, right?
That’s okay, I actually love Origin, despite its impact on the week-to-week competition.
Origin affects teams differently – some positively, some negatively – and this can alter their position on the ladder. What if there was a way we could account for this?
This season I attempted to do that by keeping tallies on how many wins teams got in different periods of the season. I divided the season into three sections. The pre-Origin period of 10 games (Rounds 1-10), the Origin period of six games (rounds 11-18), and the post-Origin period of eight games (rounds 19-26).
(To make comparisons easier I have discounted the two byes each team receives.)
After the first 10 rounds, Melbourne, Brisbane, North Queensland and St George Illawarra were equal top, with seven wins (14 points) each – two wins clear of the rest.
Brisbane and North Queensland carried on their merry winning way with six and five wins respectively, while Melbourne and the Dragons incurred Origin form-slumps, winning one game each out of six for the Origin period.
The Sydney Roosters were another team that had very good run through Origin and were able to get their season on track. It’s no coincidence that the three top teams were the three best-performed in the post-Origin period. It is also interesting to note they contributed four or more players to Origin. Other teams to perform poorly in this time were Wests and Newcastle, although their form in the lead-up to the series had already been poor.
Post-Origin had one stand-out as the Roosters managed eight from eight, but other good performers were Melbourne, Cronulla and Canterbury who all managed six wins.
So if Origin has a big impact on the integrity of the season what happens when we take it away? Well the Roosters stay at the top with 13 wins from a possible 18 but the big mover up the list is Melbourne, who come in level with Sydney also on 13 wins. North Queensland remains third with 12 wins, Brisbane drop down to equal fourth, with the other big movers being the Dragons on 11 wins.
Canterbury and Cronulla are equal sixth with 10 wins, and South Sydney drop another spot to eighth with nine wins.
So with all this in mind, what to make of the various teams’ chances? You can’t discount the Broncos’ effort in Origin, after all they lost more players than anyone. Souths aren’t much of a threat – they’ve limped into the finals despite being less affected by Origin than others. The Dragons could cause an upset this week, but they’re not up there with the top teams.
Melbourne must be considered genuine contenders for the premiership. It’s clear that Origin forced them a few positions down the ladder.
cedric
Guest
if SOO wasn't a thing, I wouldn't be happy; but I have problems with it; 1. I'm a kiwi, I don't care who wins. 2. The game is as awesome as the verbals from media and all in sundry. It really shows a human tribal type of thing where if you are from over that line, well that's it mate! 3. My problem, it upsets the NRL, in which I am more interested, by far. But I live in NZ so who really cares. 4. My footy is disrupted for about 6 weeks, I start watching rugby, soccer etc . 5. Solution, I don't really know, except just keep the NRL going, most teams lose a couple of players except Melbourne/Bronks. Let them lose, that's the price you pay for having too many stars and maybe a good coach/salary manager!!!!!!!!!! 6. So just play it over 3 straight weeks on Wednesday nights and be done with it?
Griffo 09
Roar Rookie
True on the dragons TB, and this is reflected in their last part of the season, whereas the storm were able to recover. Take out those 8 weeks during origin and the Storm's record is up there with the roosters.
The Barry
Roar Guru
We all have thoughts on the future of origin and the international game. But I don't understand the concept of this article. The two teams apparently most effected by origin were the storm and dragons. Storm understandably had Cronk, Slater, Smith, Chambers missing or backing up. Their slump can reasonably be put down to origin. The Dragons were missing Dugan....their form slump had little to do with the impact of origin.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Of course you can argue with that. Whether origin has outstayed its welcome is completely subjective. There doesn't seem to be any waning of interest in origin based on ratings, attendances, news cycles, etc despite a decade of one team dominating. Also the metaphor is pretty ordinary. 1 - why is origin 'still on the couch'? It generates huge amounts of income and reaches people well outside the normal NRL sphere. If anything it's off the couch and living in its own beachside penthouse apartment. 2 - why is there only room on the couch for one? It's the argument that we have to scrap origin or NRL to enhance the international a game that gets people so offside.
bear54
Thanks for proving my point.....
Mike
Guest
Before SOO took over Internationals were played mid season and effected the integrity of the comp. In fact up to the 50's some years the Kangaroos would get on a boat to Europe to play before the season even ended. The last comp games and finals were played between teams missing their stars, now THAT is effecting the integrity of the comp. As it stands RL has three tiers of competition, domestic, state and international. With an international window going to be at the end of seasons and SOO played more compactly (over two midweek and one weekend game) I think the balance is about as good as we can get it.
Sleiman Azizi
Roar Guru
Can't argue with that.
Griffo 09
Roar Rookie
Thanks for all the comments. This is my first article and I'll learn from it. Ideally I wanted it to come out before last nights game so I could emphasise just how closely matched The Roosters and The Storm when you disregard the origin period. I think the scoreline was evidence of this. Although this wasn't intended to be a debate about the merits of Orgin it's good to see it has promoted a lively discussion. Cheers!
Griffo 09
Roar Rookie
Hi Stormtrooper1, I suppose the point of the article was not to debate the merits of origin (as I said I love origin) but to account for the way it alters the ladder and to say maybe certain teams might be better/worse than their position/wins suggests.
Griffo 09
Roar Rookie
Hi Jarijari, The Graphic divides the season into different sections and the competition points earned by teams in those sections (minus the points for byes). The far left column is the total for each team fro the whole season. The second column is the total for the first ten rounds. The middle column is the origin period, that is rounds 11-18 where each team played 6 matches. The fourth column contains the teams' totals for rounds 19-26. Finally the far right column shows how many points each team gets when you disregard those six games during the origin period. Regarding the colours, dark green shows the team or teams with the most wins in each section and light green for teams within 1 win of the best performed. Dark red is for teams with the least wins and light red for those within 1 win. What this is supposed to show is that when you take out the games played during origin then the Storm goes equal top with the Roosters. Some other teams go up some go down.
Alex L
Roar Rookie
As a neutral observer, that sword cuts both ways.
Neville Neville
Guest
In 1980, Origin was our unemployed mate that no one else liked, who we said could sleep on the couch for awhile after his girlfriend dumped him and crashed his car, just until he could get back on his feet. Now he's landed a cracking job, slays hotties for fun and drives a Ferrari but refuses to get off the couch. To make it worse, he just drank the last beer and broke the remote. In 2015, international league is our unemployed mate in need of a hand, but there's room for only one on the couch, and it is occupied by a mate who's over stayed his welcome and if we're honest with ourselves, has become a bit of a nuisance.
Onballer
Guest
State Of Origin 1993 Brisbane 33,000 State Of Origin 1993 Sydney 41,895 State Of Origin 1993 Brisbane 31,500 http://www.rugbyleagueproject.org/teams/new-south-wales-origin/results.html Origin and internationals had about the same level of interest. One was looked after. The other was let die. NRL could have both Origin hype in June/July and Tests hype in July/August every year. But it instead of having both it has killed off Tests. Origin will fade away too if not left mid week for national exposure.
Onballer
Guest
Amco Cup, 3 test series v Kiws/Lions, pre season cup. All killed off by NRL coaches & media. Origin will be next. Same as happened in AFL. Ashes Series 1992 Jun 12th 1992 Sydney 40,141 Ashes Series 1992 Jun 26th 1992 Melbourne 31,005 Ashes Series 1992 Jul 3rd 1992 Brisbane 32,313 http://www.rugbyleagueproject.org/teams/great-britain/results.html?page=2
Kirk
Guest
I was thinking something similar. Origin and Tests are all part of the greater Rugby League narrative. It gives those pre-origin games that little bit more meaning, it gives League fans more to talk about than just the home and away season. The "who should be selected" debate then the fallout after NSW loses. Not saying the schedule couldn't be tinkered with a bit but League fans should he happier with what they got rather than complaining all the time.
Organiser
Guest
Another case of NSW hypocrisy....ever thought the chips on shoulders south of the Tweed River might also see some gravity?
Organiser
Guest
What if origin wasn't a thing? Maybe New South Wales would stop accusing Queenslanders of things they do themselves and actually be easier to like.
Niall
Guest
No mate, just the truth. Agree on your other point about 20 team comp with shortened season and more rep games. Nobody will be brave enough to try it though.
Birdy
Guest
Sacrelige!
Niall
Guest
Origin really isn't the best of the best, it's some of the best vs some of the best.