AFL finals Week 2: Who will win the semi-finals?

The first week of AFL finals is done, our attention now turns to the semi-finals. Who will win in the second week of AFL finals, and make their way through to next week’s preliminary finals?

MORE AFL FINALS:
>> HAWKS V CROWS PREVIEW & PREDICTION
>> SWANS V NORTH PREVIEW & PREDICTION
>> FINALS FORECAST: HAWKS V CROWS
>> THE X-FACTOR FINALS PLAYERS
>> AN ALL WA GRAND FINAL?
>> EXPERT TIPS
>> HOW TO WATCH THE SEMI-FINALS

Historically these matches are almost always won by the home sides, those who finished top four but lost the qualifying final the week before.

However, last year, both semi-finals were upsets as Port Adelaide (fifth) and North Melbourne (sixth) made it through to the final four.

With elimination final winners Adelaide and North Melbourne both playing great footy in the first week, and some cracks starting to appear for Hawthorn and Sydney, anything could happen.

Second semi-final
Hawthorn Hawks versus Adelaide Crows
Melbourne Cricket Ground
7:50pm Friday, September 18
Betting: Hawthorn $1.33, Adelaide $3.40

Don’t get confused – it may be called the second semi, but this is the one that’s happening first, at the MCG on Friday night.

If you were to look at this match-up based solely on last week’s form you’d be very keen on the Crows. While they only bested the Western Bulldogs by seven points, they were at their high-scoring best kicking 16.13.109 for the evening.

The Crows tick a lot of boxes for a team looking to progress far in finals. They have previous finals experience, they have a mature, talented midfield, they have a gun ruckman, and they have a lot of forward line options available.

The biggest flaw in their team is their lack of experienced defenders. Daniel Talia and Rory Laird are A-grade stoppers but the quality drops off fairly quickly after that.

The big news coming through this week is that Jack Gunston will not play, leaving Hawthorn with really only Jarryd Roughead left as a reliable tall forward, and Talia should be able to stop him.

However, the Crows will find it difficult to contain all of the Hawks’ smaller options, like Cyril Rioli, Luke Breust and Paul Puopolo.

The Hawks were quite simply rubbish last week but they are the kind of team who will kick themselves back into top gear following a loss like that – you wouldn’t bank on them being that bad two weeks in a row.

Despite a few injury concerns, they’ve got talent all over the ground, and as long as they’re able to win in the midfield or at least break even, they should get over the line and go through to next week’s preliminary finals.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 24.

First semi-final
Sydney Swans versus North Melbourne Kangaroos
ANZ Stadium
7:20pm Saturday, September 19
Betting: Sydney $1.57, North Melbourne $2.45

Both these teams probably put in better performances than was widely expected in the first week of finals. The Swans fought like mad in their qualifying final against the Dockers but ultimately fell nine points short, while North had a dominant second half to knock Richmond out in an elimination final.

The trouble for the Swans is that they have mounting injury concerns. Lance Franklin and Sam Reid have been ruled out for the year which leaves Kurt Tippett as a virtual lone hand in their forward line, with a little support coming from Adam Goodes and 16-gamer Dean Towers.

On top of that Kieren Jack and Luke Parker are both expected to miss out again this week and Nick Smith is in the maybe pile with a hamstring injury.

North, on the other hand, enters this match with virtually a clean bill of health regarding their best 22. Daniel Wells is still on the sidelines but aside from that they have access to essentially their best team right now.

Last year North were blown away at this ground by the Swans in a preliminary final but it’s worth nothing that most of the damage was done on that occasion by Franklin and Tippett, as well as some smooth moves from Nick Malceski across half back.

With Franklin and Malceski not there and Tippett more easily contained by himself, the Kangaroos will be giving themselves a big chance.

The Swans will be looking at their midfielders to get them across the line. Josh P Kennedy was massive in last week’s loss and Dan Hannebery has had a brilliant season too. If they both fire then the Swans will be hard to beat regardless of other concerns.

That said, North tagger Ben Jacobs kept Trent Cotchin to just nine disposals last week and if he can do a similar job on Kennedy or Hannebery it’ll go a long way to getting North the win.

Prediction: North Melbourne by six.