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This time last year I scoffed at the suggestion that a semi-final could be won from a team outside the top four.
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I wasn’t without my evidence – before last year, it had only been done twice in fourteen years under the current AFL finals system.
Once by Hawthorn in 2001, who trumped Port Adelaide by three points in the semi and then gave Essendon a genuine fright in the preliminary final, going down by less than two goals.
The second time by Collingwood in 2007, who knocked out West Coast in an extra-time semi and then came within a goal of the grand final, losing to Geelong the next week.
But two times in fourteen years, out of a total 28 attempts? A success rate of about 7 per cent? I was more than happy to say it wasn’t going to happen again any time soon.
How wrong I was. First North Melbourne knocked out Geelong, then Port Adelaide stunned the Dockers, and the Power missed the Grand Final by just 3 points.
Coming into the semi-final week of 2015, it seems like a realistic possibility once again that a team from the lower four might trump a qualifying final loser and win their way through to the prelim.
I said in my preview of the Crows’ elimination final last week that if any team from the lower four had a shot at the flag this year, it was them.
I stick by that – they just tick more boxes for me than any of the other teams in the lower four, and I wasn’t surprised to see them get the win on Saturday night.
They have a midfield studded with stars like Patrick Dangerfield, Rory Sloane, and Scott Thompson. They have one of the league’s elite ruckmen in Sam Jacobs. They have lots of options up forward – Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins, Tom T Lynch, Eddie Betts, Charlie Cameron.
The one thing that really pushed them above the other lower four teams for mine was that finals experience. Most of these players were involved in the 2012 finals where the Crows played three finals for one win and came within one more goal of a grand final appearance.
The key weakness that I see for the Crows is that they lack some experience in defence. Daniel Talia and Rory Laird can be relied upon but the likes of Kyle Hartigan, Luke Brown and Kyle Cheney are still developing their craft.
With the Hawks confirming Jack Gunston won’t play, that’s less of an issue for this game than it could be. It leaves Jarryd Roughead as their only real forward weapon and Daniel Talia should be able to keep him quiet.
However it’s the Hawks fleet of mid-small forwards, Cyril Rioli, Luke Breust and Paul Puopolo who will have the Crows worried.
The Hawks of course have talent all over the ground and no lack of finals experience either.
Probably their biggest weakness is the ruck department, they got killed there by Nic Naitanui on the weekend and while Jacobs might not be quite as devastating, you’d think he should have a good night all the same.
If Jacobs can provide the ball on a silver platter to his midfielders, the Hawks will be in trouble. But if the Hawks can limit his influence and break even or win in the midfield battle, they should be able to set up enough scoring opportunities to get over the line.
One of the big keys to winning the match for the Hawks will be trying to keep Eddie Betts quiet. Betts kicked five goals for the Crows on the weekend and if he’s allowed to have a similar performance this week the Hawks will be in serious trouble.
The versatile Ben Stratton will probably get that job. At 189cm he’s a fair bit taller than Betts but he’s probably the best suited of any of the Hawks back six to shut down a small forward.
The key to winning for the Crows will be pressure, pressure, pressure. That’s how the Eagles beat the Hawks this week and you can bet that game tape will be studied intensely by the Crows coaching staff this week.
The Hawks just couldn’t handle the heat against the Eagles and if the Crows are able to put that same kind of pressure on them then they’re a red hot chance to get the win. The Hawks are known for their precise kicking, but putting on the pressure stuffs that right up.
How the Hawks bounce back from last week’s humiliating defence may well determine their fate for the next few years. We’ve already considered whether or not this might be the beginning of the end for the Hawks, and what they do this week will in many ways be the answer to that question.
If they can rile themselves up and return to peak form you’d say they’re still a genuine shot at the flag and will probably win through. If they can’t, it might be the start of a serious decline.
Simply put, from what I’ve seen of the Hawks over the last few years, I don’t think they’re the type to put in that kind of performance two weeks in a row, and if they play their best footy, I think they should edge out the Crows.
Prediction: Hawthorn by 12 points.