We all knew it was coming. But today, the Adelaide Crows confirmed it.
Patrick Dangerfield, the league’s youngest ever free agent, is set to exercise his free agency rights in an effort to return to his native Victoria.
Even rational analysis of his fit in a number of different settings was always pushing up hill on this one, a fact which was confirmed in Adelaide’s short statement. Dangerfield is seeking a contract in his home state for personal reasons. Good luck to him. He’s one of the best at his craft in the country, and is using his considerable talents and the mechanisms available to him to get what he wants.
But before we all jump to conclusions, it is important to remember that this is indeed the first of many steps in Dangerfield’s journey home.
First and foremost, free agency doesn’t even begin for another two and a bit weeks. The league has expressed its desire to keep the off season as the off season, and so despite all of the rumours (there seems to be an extra year added to the contract offer every day), it would be highly unusual for any club to show its hand before the grand final.
The way this all works from here is that a club can offer Dangerfield a contract, for a certain number of years and certain amount of dollars to be paid over those years. This is lodged with the AFL as a bonifide contract – no fishing allowed. Adelaide, as the holder of Dangerfield’s restricted free agency rights, can then chose whether to match that deal, or relinquish those rights and let Dangerfield sign that deal.
This is where things will potentially get interesting, for Adelaide, his potential suitors, and indeed the rest of the competition. If Adelaide decide not to match, they will receive free agent compensation, determined using a few different criteria (such as player salary, age, and the net gain/loss of talent during the particular free agency period).
Dangerfield will attract the very top free agency compensation, regardless of what else happens at Adelaide during free agency. But that would be the equivalent of a “first round pick”, which would be granted immediately after their first pick in the draft – currently pick 13.
Dangerfield for pick 14 is woefully inadequate. And so regardless of the offers lobbed by Victorian teams, Adelaide will absolutely exercise their restricted free agency rights. That means, for a few days at least, Patrick Dangerfield will remain a Crow.
It is then up to Danger. He can either accept Adelaide’s offer, or take a punt on the preseason draft. Given Carlton, a Victorian team, holds the number one pick in the preseason draft, well, at least he’d get his wish to move home.
Just kidding. That’s not going to happen.
So, then, what will occur is if Dangerfield really, really wants to move home to Victoria, Adelaide will attempt to secure a trade for him. And this, sports fans, is where things will get super interesting.
If middling key forward Lachie Henderson is supposedly worth Geelong’s first round pick, what is a 25-year-old superstar, who may just win the Brownlow medal this year, worth?
Two first round picks? Two first round picks and a player? Even more? Who really knows.
But Adelaide hold all of the cards here, and indeed sounded an ominous warning in their press release:
“We will now consider our options, however, our members and supporters should rest assured that in doing so we will make decisions and take action that is in the best interests of our football club”
Show. Me. The. Money.
It will set off a feverish trade period, as clubs across Victoria seek to acquire enough assets to facilitate the Crows letting Dangerfield slip from their grasp. What is he worth? The opportunities here are endless, and mind boggling to some degree.
As for Dangerfield’s decision to leave, well, you all know my views on this. Of all of the realistic options, Adelaide are by far the closest to having a genuine tilt at the premiership. What happened to “all I want is a shot at a flag”? Anyway, that’s another conversation for another day.
He is a generational player, someone that can truly change the direction of a team; and that means for Adelaide too. While the Crows have a very strong midfield, how much of it hinges on the constant threat of a Paddy Special clearance? Rory Sloane is an excellent player, but he’s no Sean Connery. Will he be Daniel Craig or Pierce Brosnan without Paddy around?
It will set the Crows back, of that there is no doubt. It makes their looming decision on a new head coach oh-so important, because in many ways the chosen one will be left with a terrible dilemma: persist with the current list and hope for the best, or concede that absent its central piece, some more significant changes will need to be made.
And what of his potential destinations? This comes down to what a suitor will be required to give up.
For the Cats, going all in on Dangerfield might sell tickets, but it will simply mask the more substantial problems lurking beneath the shiny new surface. Problems will be amplified if they have to sell the farm to bring him in.
For Collingwood, who, let’s not forget, have money and a very good, young midfield core, a combination of Scott Pendlebury and Dangerfield is truly terrifying. They have assets to burn, and could wheel and deal their way into contention.
Could the Hawks pinch him? Or the Tigers? Given their respective list profiles the addition of Dangerfield would shoot them into premiership contention in 2016. Or does a super-young St Kilda, or Melbourne, or even Western Bulldogs, have a go?
A journey of 1000 miles starts with the smallest step. We took that step today, but there are many more miles to come.
geoff
Guest
In hindsight both wce and the pies have done unbelievably well when losing their star player. I dont think anyone is worth 3 players. So adelaide may well be the winner here.
geoff
Guest
I think we can all agree the current system is unfair. Franklin was worth pick 19. Frawley pick 3. Now danger 14 . A bargain from one angle a travesty from another
Josh
Expert
True, some excellent predictive powers on that one!
Ryan Buckland
Expert
I'd love to pull a pay-off matrix together...would be an interesting way to analyse the problem.
geoff
Guest
thx for that! So both Adelaide and Danger (and the Cats) all take a huge risk if Adelaide decide to match an offer (assuming of course Danger wants to leave regardless). But if Adelaide doesn't match they get pick 14. Is it fair to say that the Cats (being preferred, and having pick 8 or so) would try to offer something better than pick 14 to cement the trade? So from Adelaide's perspective, they are guaranteed pick 14. They run the risk of getting nothing if they play hard ball. From Geelong's perspective, they may offer pick 10 (which is pretty good compared to pick 14). It may not be what he is worth but it may be the best Adelaide will get.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
That's the general gist. On Point 1: if he doesn't accept Adelaide's offer, he becomes a delisted player, and cannot join another club through means other than the pre-season draft. So they get nothing. But Dangerfield runs the risk of being drafted by someone that he doesn't want to play for (and I've read that Brisbane have said they'll take him...cheekily) On Point 2: if Adelaide chooses not to match a rival offer, they will receive a compensation pick based on a few different criteria. But would almost certainly be the top tier compensation, which in this case is estimated to be pick 14 (a first round pick immediately after their first first round pick). On Point 3: the suitor can offer whatever they want, really. The free agency matching period expires about a week before the end of the trade period, so there is no guarantee that Geelong offer them something better than 14. But the general expectation is that they will make them a better offer; or someone will. As the Crows still hold his contract until the end of the football year, they hold the cards in that scenario. So it goes a little something like this in order: Free agency opens Suitor tables an offer Adelaide doesn't match the offer, Dangerfield moves, Crows receive compensation. OR Free agency opens -Suitor tables an offer -Adelaide chooses to match the offer --Dangerfield accepts, we all move on. --Dangerfield doesn't accept, and requests a trade. ---The trade occurs, and we all move on. ---The trade doesn't occur, and Dangerfield then gets to... ----Delist himself and nominate for the pre-season draft ----Accept Adelaide's offer, and we all move on.
Lamby
Roar Rookie
I don't think it is cut and dry as that. Danger is a superstar now. But I don't think he has 5 years in him. He gets beaten up too much. His body will not hold up. And the days of an old bloke like Jarman sitting at full forward are long gone. A really high 1st round pick this year and next and a trade of an Aish might actually be a better outcome.
geoff
Guest
Ryan please explain how the draft system works 1. If adelaide match offer but danger walks. Does this pose a risk for adelaide? Ie if danger goes into the draft what does adelaide get? Nothing? Pick 14? 2. If adelaide doesnt match they get pick 14 Is this correct? 3. Say geelong is the preference. Do the cats have to offer adelaide a deal better than 14 or run their own risk that danger will enter the draft and say head to the blues? Any other scenarios?
Macca
Guest
Brendon the 1st - Firstly the deal you propose is more than what the BLues gave up to get Judd, who had a brownlow, norm smith and premiership medallion in his pocket plus he had captained his club. Secondly Judd deal was pre-free agency. Thirdly Geelong are in a position to offer more lng term to Dagnerfield than Adelaide and finally you seem to forget that Dangerfield is out of contract and even if Adelaide match Gelongs offer Dangerfield doesn't have to accept it and can go in to the draft with a price on his head high enough to ensure he gets to Geelong for Free.
Brendon the 1st
Guest
There's no way Adelaide would swap 15 for 10, they would need to take 10 and then next years first round pick plus a decent player this year, think Vardy or Duncan. Dangerfield could be the highest paid player in the league (in my opinion he's very over rated but the perception is that he's a top 5 player and that's what counts), he's more Buddy Franklin than Luke Ball, and we saw what the AFL did to Sydney when they ripped Hawthorne off for that deal. Adelaide I would think will want to send a message to their list given how many top shelf players they've lost recently, so sending him to the PSD is absolutely a possibility, looking at Macca's deal they would only lose pick 10 if they did this so it's worth making him chance his luck, Brisbane are in the same boat with Redden. I for one would love to see him get snatched at pick 2 by Carlton or even better pick 4 by Brisbane and stop all these players nominating which club they want to go and therefore shafting the club that drafted him. I'm a Port fan so we've not been to affected negatively, if anything it's worked for us (Polec, White, Monfries), but I do feel for Brisbane and as much as I hate to say it the Crows. Put him in the PSD and make him sweat a little bit, it would be good for the comp as a whole.
Mullo
Guest
Anything...... that involves him playing for Geelong from 2016. Anything else is tinfoil hat stuff.
Macca
Guest
And didn't that work out well for Melbourne!
David
Guest
Mitch Clark was going home to WA. Anything can happen.
Macca
Guest
Its hard to argue draft manipulation when a very similar deal was done last year between the same clubs, just in reverse.
David
Guest
A deal like this just makes Geelong an even bigger winner. Not to mention every other club protesting at the draft manipulation.
David
Guest
Reckon that's about right but the 2nd rounder is needed for Hendersen. They need to trade out some players to get currency or trade next years picks.
Macca
Guest
I don't think it will cost Geelong that much - Adelaide can't afford to keep Dangerfield on a contract that will risk losing the quality emerging players they have currently while Geelong have a significant amount of top end players leaving this year and next year. On top of that I don't see many of the teams ahead of Geelong in the pre-season draft being a very good fit for Dangerfield through either location, list management cycle or salary room (and who really wants to pay someone close to $1m to be somewhere he doesn't want to be). That siad Geelong do have a track record of being very fair to deal with so it will be interesting to see where it lands.
TomC
Roar Guru
Yeah, it depends how motivated they are to let this happen. They've allowed these sort of sweetheart deals in the past, but they might be nervous about the precedent in this case. If the AFL isn't prepared to allow the clubs to even up the trade separately after the Crows claim FA compo, then it'll just be a straight trade, I suspect. Both clubs are motivated to do the deal. I suspect Geelong would need to offer their first round pick in this year's and next year's drafts. Maybe also upgrading Adelaide's second round draft pick to theirs.
Macca
Guest
Ryan - " Any one of the eight teams drafting ahead of the Cats would snap him up in the pre-season draft." I don't think that is true at all. Dangerfield can put a price on his head going into that draft and Carlton wouldn't spend that sort of money at this point in their rebuild, Brisbane, Gold Coast & GWS aren't going to take a player who wants to be in Victoria, St Kilda has an emerging list and wouldn't want to use up a lot of its salary cap on Dangerfield and risk squeezing out players going forward and Collingwood are going to have used up a significant chunk to get Treloar. So that leaves Essendon and Melbourne and Dangerfield would not want to go to either but who knows what those clubs would do. So while Dangerfield would make all the clubs below Geelong significantly better I don't think he fits a lot of them really well.
Wilson
Roar Guru
try do Trade Ryan to Crows last year deal was done and Ryan said no that he wanted to stay at the hawks and fight a spot in the Hawks 22. so I dont think that will happen. More then happy for the hawks to do a deal and Trade Frawly for him :)