When Tonga play Namibia on Wednesday, we will be halfway through the pool matches. Rather than wait until this happens, I thought I would get this preview in before all the other cool cats do.
So, without further ado, I present a new set of observations and predictions about the tournament to come.
Pool A: Battle for the hosts’ survival
Wales have provided the first indications of the final shape of this pool with their victory over England, creating the possibility that one of the big five may fail to make the quarter-finals for the first time. However, the draw really heats up now, with Australia about to enter the fray and begin a series of tough games.
At this stage, the Wallabies will have to play their top side for the next five consecutive games, with a single loss potentially sending them out of the world cup. Thankfully for Australian fans, Cheika seems to have sorted out his top line-up.
If this website is anything to go by, Australian reactions to the Welsh win have been extremely mixed. From an outside perspective, I would say that the Wallabies should be extremely careful. Chris Robshaw, like Michael Leitch a week prior, opted to turn down a penalty to go for the win. Unlike Leitch, this decision backfired when a try could not be scored.
It is worth considering that this was the only difference between England and Wales at the end. The Wallabies would be well advised of this, along with the obvious fact that it is now do-or-die for the English. Desperation is a great incentive (more on this shortly).
Despite enthusiastic predictions by some (*cough* Greg Martin *cough*), Fiji will miss out on a playoff spot. Their match against Wales is possibly their last opportunity at a boilover, and, while not impossible, this is a danger that Gatland will be savvy to. Wales won’t be taking any chances with this one and should win. Uruguay have fulfilled most expectations, and have exceeded some by not getting thumped by as much as some thought.
Who to progress? Hmmm. I’m feeling lucky. Australia and England. In that order, thanks to points differential.
Pool B: Nobody expects the Japanese Inquisition!
First of all, let’s get a prediction I made back in August out of the way.
“Make no mistake, South Africa will top this pool. There is simply no team in this pool capable of beating them.”
Ahem. Yes. Oops.
Despite the results so far, I still think the first half of that prediction holds true.
One thing that struck me about the South Africa-Samoa game was the way the Boks played, as much as the result. From the beginning, they looked to be playing as if they would be executed if they lost. You can bet a similar attitude will be applied for the rest of their pool games. They certainly won’t be taking anyone else lightly.
The injury to Jean de Villiers, while very sad when reflecting on what this will mean for him, may be another blessing in disguise. Meyer has seemed to show a reluctance to use what clearly appears to be South Africa’s best midfield combination. He now no longer has much choice in the matter.
Scotland have appeared as the new favourite to top Pool B. This is mostly due to a beneficial draw thus far, failing to screw anything up too badly, and is in spite of some fairly terrible results against decent opposition.
Since the 2011 World Cup, Scotland have won 17 out of 46 games. These wins came against the following, in chronological order.
Australia (back in the middle of 2012)
Fiji
Samoa
Italy (5 times)
Ireland
Japan (twice including their latest victory)
USA (twice)
Canada
Argentina (twice)
Tonga
In other words, they have beaten a top tier nation on average about once a year (in 28 attempts), with no victories at all against one since last November. Is a South African side playing for their quarter-final spot going to fall to this team? Stranger things have happened, but generally not twice in a World Cup.
Samoa will need to beat Scotland to have the slightest hope of qualifying now, and most unfortunately I can’t see Japan pulling through either. Having beaten the top team, they have now run into the downside of this pool – there are no games to rest key players without risking a defeat.
To progress? South Africa and Scotland.
Pool C: At last, a predictable one!
The only pool where the result seems clear. Georgia’s upset win looks to be the only deviation from the norm in this pool.
Hypothetically, Tonga could upset the apple-cart further by beating Argentina, but I don’t see this happening. Argentina will be wise to the danger, and have a much nicer schedule to prepare for this game. I don’t see an upset here.
There has been some fingers pointed at New Zealand, claiming they are not up to winning based on their results thus far. I feel this is unfair. They have performed similarly to Australia by raw numbers, who by contrast have been held to be performing well. While they have some issues to work through, this is little different to most of the major contenders at this stage.
Mention must also be made of the Georgian team for the first upset of the tournament. While this will not change the quarter-finalists, it will mean that they will automatically qualify for the next tournament. It is good to see them doing well, and is it time for them to be given better treatment by the other European powers?
To progress? New Zealand and Argentina
Pool D: Waiting for the one match of importance
This pool has progressed completely as expected, with the two most fashionable dark horses continuing to beat all others before their key clash.
Whisper it quietly, but France might actually be genuine contenders this time around. They dealt with Italy quite handily, and actually having all of their players available from the clubs has turned them into a strong looking team.
Hopefully World Rugby will heed this change when considering how to approach the clubs’ influence. I’m not holding my breath though.
I will refrain from commenting on Ireland, simply because games against Canada and Romania don’t really give a good indication as to where they are at.
Italy have continued their trend of being as average as possible at a World Cup, while both Canada and Romania will be looking forward to their clash as the one game they might win.
This pool continues to hinge on the clash between France and Ireland. Everything else is essentially window-dressing.
To progress? France and Ireland. In that order.
Stray thoughts
The ref, the TMO and the big screen. There was some controversy about this in the opening match of the competition, controversy that was quickly buried underneath a certain Japanese victory. It is too late to sort this mess out for the World Cup, but it should be the first thing discussed once it is done. You can bet the issue will not die so quietly if these factors play a major role in some of the key Pool A games. Watch this space.
Gatland may have dodged a bullet in that the local press seem uninterested in seven players outside the squad training with the Welsh team, or the rebuke he received from World Rugby as a result of this. Gatland claims that he has not broken any rules, but instead been told off for breaking the spirit of them. While he may have a point, I suspect that this would somehow be a bigger deal if, say, a SANZAR nation of your choice pulled a similar stunt.
In a similar vein, it is interesting to see the coverage of a cynical, but non-dangerous, act by Richie McCaw against the eye-gouging by Mariano Galarza in the same match.
His team may not be the strongest, but Florin Surugiu has either the best romantic sense, or the biggest balls in the World Cup.
After 16 years and results drawing ever closer, is it time for World Rugby to consider expanding the tournament once again?
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
The All Blacks will be the first to admit they have been ordinary so far. Still better to peak later in the tournament than too early. I think they will put triple figures on Georgia. A lot has been made of their showboating and lack of structure in games. I think a more polished display, with more emphasis on building phases and not throwing the stupid passes will happen against Georgia. Although a lot of people were pointing the finger at Namibia for slowing the game down with all their stoppages, the main reason the stoppages were happening is because the All Blacks had almost as many handling errors as points. They have been sloppy in their first two game and it is just not good enough. The NZ rugby public know it and the players do. A more concerted effort will happen against Georgia
taylorman
Roar Guru
Yes but they were about best chance of qualifying in the existing World Cup. I accept it gives them exemption of a very difficult qualifying path but the game simply shouldn't be played if They can't give it due respect simply because they're focussed on the next World Cup. There shouldn't be incentives at this tournament to throw matches to qualify for the same tournament they are throwing them now to get to. Stupid rules.
Wal
Roar Guru
Nambia the worst ranked, team have show plenty on both matches against NZ and Tonga that they deserve to be here. Not sure about expansion just yet but a like IceBlue's idea of a Bowl as well. Maybe just as a top 2 from each pool with the winners taking the automatic qual in place of the current 3rd place in each Pool. Looking at the current Pools, Fiji, Samoa/Japan, who are likley to miss auto Qual would get a chance to play Tonga, Italy for that honour
IceBlue
Roar Pro
While I see your point, as a NZer I would note that we just played a second string team against Namibia for reasons that aren't much better. This is hardly a new problem either: remember 2007 and Scotland's second string team against the ABs, England resting Wilkinson against SA, or the ABs playing a different XV in basically every game. It's hard to justify denying second-tier nations the same practices the top ones use, even if their reasoning is adjusted for their goals.
taylorman
Roar Guru
I see we have several reasons to drop pool games these days. When the ABs play Georgia they're looking at playing 'without their Stars'. Besides the fact that I didn't know they had any it's all about saving themselves for Namibia, to grab two wins, finished third and auto qualify for Japan, rather than having to go through the qualifying rounds. Well if that's the case I hope Namibia stuffs them good. You either turn up to this thing to give it your best shot or not at all.
IceBlue
Roar Pro
What I would prefer to see is a "bowl" knockout from the current format i.e. the third and fourth placed team in each pool play a matching knockout to the cup. At stake could be, say, two automatic qualification spots for the next cup (if the current number is reduced). Reducing the tournament is not the answer.
Garth
Guest
I would have thought that Japan's victory over the Springboks and Georgia's steady progress (& win over Tonga) would have finally ended the condescending idea of a lower level tournament for the minnows. They are no longer here to make up the numbers, they have had an impact on the shape of this World Cup and they have damned well earned their spots at the grown ups table.
Tigranes
Guest
What if Scotland defeat South Africa, and Japan defeat both Samoa and USA?
parra
Guest
I would rather see an emerging nations world cup that would see the top two nations qualify for the WC that would consist of 10-12 of the strongest nations. The lopsided, predictable results are a turnoff. I also hope they tinker with the rules to allow more game time and less stoppages. Looking forward to the finals.
IceBlue
Roar Pro
Was refering to SA resting players against Japan. Sorry about ambiguous pronouns. Make no mistake, I want Japan to qualify, I just see it being unlikely. Let's say Japan have a 50-50 chance of winning both games. I make that a 25% chance at best, and this is not counting whether Scotland beat Samoa. If they do so, then bonus points start becoming a factor, and Japan doesn't have much in that column. I don't think that Scotland will take Samoa lightly. They will be well aware that this is a game they could lose, and will be preparing with that game as a key match, regardless of how they go against South Africa. I also don't buy the theory that Samoa will have the upper hand against Scotland if they have nothing to play for. History has shown that teams are stronger when they have everything to play for, which would seem to favour Scotland if anyone. But here's hoping...
Derm
Roar Guru
"I will refrain from commenting on Ireland, simply because games against Canada and Romania don’t really give a good indication as to where they are at." I'd agree with the across the board consensus that the pool will be decided by the final pool match between France and Ireland. Prior to the tournament, all the money was on Ireland finishing top and France second. Then France turned up in their warm-up matches against England and suddenly it looked like they had a team again. In the RWC, they dispatched Italy without getting out of second gear, according to some commentators/pundits. And they easily accounted for Romania four days later. Canada is next in their headlights, and it will be interesting to see how much they turn up the motor in preparation for their final game. The Canadians will make the game a contest - and there's a bit of French colonial rivalry to boot. Ireland, won two and lost two in the warm-up games in Aug/Sept. Their losses to Wales and England ensured they dropped from 2nd to mid ranking and they quietly and happily disappeared under the radar. They are - in some people's eyes - clinically mechanical, or possibly mechanically clinical in their approach to the game - following their coach's approach to the letter. Off-loading was removed from heir game, huge use of the boot, aerial contests, and short power plays to get tries where they needed to. They finished lowest on the try scoring front in the Six Nations they won. They also finished highest on the best defence - which is what ultimately won them the championship. In the warm-ups it was difficult to figure out whether the aerial bombardment game was going to continue, or were there more strings to their bow. The back three have been the most hotly contested positions in the build up to the RWC, and Schmidt has been careful to keep that competition going so that he gets a quality performance from them every match. Zebo, Earls, Fitzgerald, Bowe, D Kearney and even Rob Kearney are all fighting for their spots. They have 13 tries in the bag against the limited opposition they've faced, but it has given confidence to the players, all 31 have been given a game bar the recovering Henshaw in midfield, and the players seem relaxed and comfortable with each other. They've been very fortunate in their pool schedule with each game spaced a week apart giving sufficient recovery time and a nicely spaced rhythm to their games that will continue for as long as they are in the tournament. Italy are up next Sunday (Monday), and Ireland will have to move up another gear to overcome the Azurri who will likely be led by the recovered Parisse for the first time who'll want to make a mark. Ireland will want a contest as much as the win over Italy to prepare them for what is likely to be another brutal match against the French on 11 October. It finished 18-11 between the sides earlier this year, with the Irish getting back to back victories over the French for the first time in a long time. France have been Ireland's bogey team since the start of the Six Nations in 2000 - they have a positive win record over the other four teams. France had their number for most of the 2000s. They've beaten them 8 times out of the 16 matches. But the last four matches since 2012 were two draws followed by two Irish wins. The bogey/fear has gone, with confidence mixed with respect in its place. There may not be too many tries in it, but it should be an almighty tussle.
Tigranes
Guest
Italy - going backwards, this is concerning, for a supposed tier 1 nation. Romania - nothing changed Canada - going backwards Georgia - going forwards Namibia - nothing changed Tonga - going backwards rapidly Samoa - going backwards Japan - going forwards USA - nothing changed Fiji - nothing changed Uruguay - going backwards
IceBlue
Roar Pro
I had not read that particular piece, but have now rectified this. The comparison they make is an interesting one, but I feel they still gloss over a few points. Wood's action is highlighted as "reckless", but I have seen many a player try a hack through with an opponent fast approaching. Most of these have resulted in no injury, and there is a clear benefit to doing so (that does not involved an injured opponent). And as you put it, the foul by Wood was unintentional. Galarza, on the other hand, deliberately grabbed the head of Retallick, and also denied putting his hand in Retallick's eye (which is not mentioned by the article, but is in the World Rugby description). There is little argument for doing this, and the article basically glosses over this fact. While it often seems unfair that injury does not play a major role in determining the punishment, there are good reasons for this. After all, should every player who has attempted a hack-through in a tight spot be cited? The lack of flexibility is also cited, but this to me is preferable to the alternative as it ensures sentences can not be altered for less healthy reasons.
Derm
Roar Guru
"Also bear in mind they will be playing the top team of all their opponents, when SA was resting several key players." Don't know what you mean by this? Samoa had their top team out against SA. They lost. Japan have shown they have the requisite tenacity, courage, skill and inventiveness to counter teams that are bigger than them. Their scrum is mobile and smart - they generate quick ball so they don't get pulled into a heavyweight contest. Their backline are no slouches either. Sure, the Samoans can hit, but we've seen less of that this RWC, and they haven't been running the tries in - 2 against the US, zip against SA. Japan have the capacity to pick off Samoa as a good matador might eventually wear out a bull. They beat Samoa in Tokyo last year 33-14 And they've won and lost last two matches against USA. I'd give them a fighting chance of winning both games. I'd say Eddie Jones has had that target in mind for the RWC. However, if they beat Samoa, then Samoa are out of the reckoning, and Scotland might find them an easier prospect - who knows - maybe the Samoans might decide to cut loose. Would love to see them qualify.
IceBlue
Roar Pro
Yeah, they would realistically have to beat Samoa, and then the US with a bonus point (they will be doing well to get one over Samoa), to have complete control over their destiny. If that happened, it would be fantastic, but I suspect it may just be a bridge too far... Mind you, the only team that has complete control over what happens to them in that pool now is Scotland, and they have two games they could easily lose to finish. It certainly has made this pool extremely interesting. Who wants balanced pools now? (apart from the English)
Lee
Guest
Dead right - Japan could beat both Samoa and Scotland but realistically this will leave them on 12 points - maybe 13 or 14 if they get bonus points. They would still be behind Scotland unless.... Samoa beat Scotland. Then Scotland will finish on 10 or 11 points instead of 14 or 15 and Japan could sneak into second spot. So the Samoa v Scotland game is the hinge game of this pool for me. Go Samoa! By which I really mean Go Japan! Ok it's a long shot but it could happen.....
Nobrain
Guest
You can go Gloucester Citizen then Mariano Galarza and read what they have to say about the incident, what was Retallick statements and why the deciscion was made and the unfairness of it. Just to mention a place to be more informed about the incident that you are pretty sure was the right call.
IceBlue
Roar Pro
If we knew, we wouldn't need a World Cup in the first place :)
Bobbo7
Guest
I'm either comfortable the ABs are building to bring their best in the next two games or that some of the old war horses are a touch past it and they will be under-par when it matters. I honestly don't know which of the above applies. But to be honest the ABs at 80% are still a pretty decent side. For mine the winner will be either NZ, Australia, Ireland or France.
IceBlue
Roar Pro
I have done these things already, along with reading the decision from World Rugby.