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When Tonga play Namibia on Wednesday, we will be halfway through the pool matches. Rather than wait until this happens, I thought I would get this preview in before all the other cool cats do.
So, without further ado, I present a new set of observations and predictions about the tournament to come.
Pool A: Battle for the hosts’ survival
Wales have provided the first indications of the final shape of this pool with their victory over England, creating the possibility that one of the big five may fail to make the quarter-finals for the first time. However, the draw really heats up now, with Australia about to enter the fray and begin a series of tough games.
At this stage, the Wallabies will have to play their top side for the next five consecutive games, with a single loss potentially sending them out of the world cup. Thankfully for Australian fans, Cheika seems to have sorted out his top line-up.
If this website is anything to go by, Australian reactions to the Welsh win have been extremely mixed. From an outside perspective, I would say that the Wallabies should be extremely careful. Chris Robshaw, like Michael Leitch a week prior, opted to turn down a penalty to go for the win. Unlike Leitch, this decision backfired when a try could not be scored.
It is worth considering that this was the only difference between England and Wales at the end. The Wallabies would be well advised of this, along with the obvious fact that it is now do-or-die for the English. Desperation is a great incentive (more on this shortly).
Despite enthusiastic predictions by some (*cough* Greg Martin *cough*), Fiji will miss out on a playoff spot. Their match against Wales is possibly their last opportunity at a boilover, and, while not impossible, this is a danger that Gatland will be savvy to. Wales won’t be taking any chances with this one and should win. Uruguay have fulfilled most expectations, and have exceeded some by not getting thumped by as much as some thought.
Who to progress? Hmmm. I’m feeling lucky. Australia and England. In that order, thanks to points differential.
Pool B: Nobody expects the Japanese Inquisition!
First of all, let’s get a prediction I made back in August out of the way.
“Make no mistake, South Africa will top this pool. There is simply no team in this pool capable of beating them.”
Ahem. Yes. Oops.
Despite the results so far, I still think the first half of that prediction holds true.
One thing that struck me about the South Africa-Samoa game was the way the Boks played, as much as the result. From the beginning, they looked to be playing as if they would be executed if they lost. You can bet a similar attitude will be applied for the rest of their pool games. They certainly won’t be taking anyone else lightly.
The injury to Jean de Villiers, while very sad when reflecting on what this will mean for him, may be another blessing in disguise. Meyer has seemed to show a reluctance to use what clearly appears to be South Africa’s best midfield combination. He now no longer has much choice in the matter.
Scotland have appeared as the new favourite to top Pool B. This is mostly due to a beneficial draw thus far, failing to screw anything up too badly, and is in spite of some fairly terrible results against decent opposition.
Since the 2011 World Cup, Scotland have won 17 out of 46 games. These wins came against the following, in chronological order.
Australia (back in the middle of 2012)
Fiji
Samoa
Italy (5 times)
Ireland
Japan (twice including their latest victory)
USA (twice)
Canada
Argentina (twice)
Tonga
In other words, they have beaten a top tier nation on average about once a year (in 28 attempts), with no victories at all against one since last November. Is a South African side playing for their quarter-final spot going to fall to this team? Stranger things have happened, but generally not twice in a World Cup.
Samoa will need to beat Scotland to have the slightest hope of qualifying now, and most unfortunately I can’t see Japan pulling through either. Having beaten the top team, they have now run into the downside of this pool – there are no games to rest key players without risking a defeat.
To progress? South Africa and Scotland.
Pool C: At last, a predictable one!
The only pool where the result seems clear. Georgia’s upset win looks to be the only deviation from the norm in this pool.
Hypothetically, Tonga could upset the apple-cart further by beating Argentina, but I don’t see this happening. Argentina will be wise to the danger, and have a much nicer schedule to prepare for this game. I don’t see an upset here.
There has been some fingers pointed at New Zealand, claiming they are not up to winning based on their results thus far. I feel this is unfair. They have performed similarly to Australia by raw numbers, who by contrast have been held to be performing well. While they have some issues to work through, this is little different to most of the major contenders at this stage.
Mention must also be made of the Georgian team for the first upset of the tournament. While this will not change the quarter-finalists, it will mean that they will automatically qualify for the next tournament. It is good to see them doing well, and is it time for them to be given better treatment by the other European powers?
To progress? New Zealand and Argentina
Pool D: Waiting for the one match of importance
This pool has progressed completely as expected, with the two most fashionable dark horses continuing to beat all others before their key clash.
Whisper it quietly, but France might actually be genuine contenders this time around. They dealt with Italy quite handily, and actually having all of their players available from the clubs has turned them into a strong looking team.
Hopefully World Rugby will heed this change when considering how to approach the clubs’ influence. I’m not holding my breath though.
I will refrain from commenting on Ireland, simply because games against Canada and Romania don’t really give a good indication as to where they are at.
Italy have continued their trend of being as average as possible at a World Cup, while both Canada and Romania will be looking forward to their clash as the one game they might win.
This pool continues to hinge on the clash between France and Ireland. Everything else is essentially window-dressing.
To progress? France and Ireland. In that order.
Stray thoughts
The ref, the TMO and the big screen. There was some controversy about this in the opening match of the competition, controversy that was quickly buried underneath a certain Japanese victory. It is too late to sort this mess out for the World Cup, but it should be the first thing discussed once it is done. You can bet the issue will not die so quietly if these factors play a major role in some of the key Pool A games. Watch this space.
Gatland may have dodged a bullet in that the local press seem uninterested in seven players outside the squad training with the Welsh team, or the rebuke he received from World Rugby as a result of this. Gatland claims that he has not broken any rules, but instead been told off for breaking the spirit of them. While he may have a point, I suspect that this would somehow be a bigger deal if, say, a SANZAR nation of your choice pulled a similar stunt.
In a similar vein, it is interesting to see the coverage of a cynical, but non-dangerous, act by Richie McCaw against the eye-gouging by Mariano Galarza in the same match.
His team may not be the strongest, but Florin Surugiu has either the best romantic sense, or the biggest balls in the World Cup.
After 16 years and results drawing ever closer, is it time for World Rugby to consider expanding the tournament once again?
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.