The NRL grand final: What the hell is going to happen?

Brisbane and the Cowboys. It’s a match-up so evenly matched-up that it can only be split by a hyphen, and that’s before even considering other grand final adages like anything can happen on the day because form always goes out the window.

Come Sunday, only two things are assured: the trophy is headed closer to the equator for a year, and Wally Lewis will lose his mind over any backline move that exceeds four passes.

Besides that, we’re all in the dark on everything, meaning we have ourselves a bona fide thriller.

To assist with spoiling this, I’ve used a meticulous formula that combines bias-driven analysis, behavioural science, and fanciful intangibles to be applied across key categories to determine who may conceivably take the title on Sunday night, God willing.

So who will be the duck’s nuts of 2015?

The venue
This bout is already in the box seat to towel-up your wallet, and conducting it on international waters where no side has leverage is hardly going to help. So if you’re punting, you might want to post your whitegoods on Gumtree now and save yourself the time.

Unless the teams have trespassed on ANZ Stadium for a game of drunken touch as part of an off-course Mad Monday, this will be the first time they’ve been within sniffing distance of each other inside the postcode, let alone tussled on this famous surface of sand and exposed bolts.

I’m told the Broncos have played four finals at ANZ for three wins, while the Cowboys are two wins from five. That clears up nothing, so I’ll just take your Samsung top-loader for $150 if that’s sweet?

Verdict: with the crowd on their side and buckets of outback dust beneath their feet, North Queensland take the home ground advantage.

The mindsets
When it comes to the week’s festivities, approximately 576 former greats have urged the teams involved to ‘soak it up’ and ‘relax’. It’s been sound advice for those players who enjoy a handful of caffeine tablets before bed, as well as those planning to streak around the block nude while screaming, “I’ve made the Big Dance but I don’t want to talk about it.”

However, chillaxing is easier said than done. The week is long, so playing out a tight 20 off the bench in your dreams or hitting the tackle bags in the hallway with your labrador is probably inevitable. Keeping the mind occupied is key – so who has done this best?

Verdict: while both squads kept themselves busy contracting writers cramp as they signed autographs, one captain spent his time scooping major individual accolades, while the other one got himself cited. Mental advantage: Cowboys.

The experience
Exposure to deciders is relatively thin on the ground. North Queensland have Ben Hannant, Kane Linnett, Justin O’Neill and Johnathan Thurston, whereas Brisbane have Adam Blair, Darius Boyd, Justin Hodges, Corey Parker and Sam Thaiday. Again, the waters remain murky.

In these situations, you have to revert to dictum. They say you’ve got to lose one to win one. Unless you’ve been in one with another club. Then you’ve got to win one to lose one. Unless you’re Glenn Lazarus. Or if you’re Cronulla, where you’ve got to lose two to win none. Any clearer?

Verdict: with more title-winners, it’s the Broncos by TKO.

The fairytale
Sure, I have a heart, so I acknowledge that if Justin Hodges captained a premiership in his 251st and final game, it would be a storyline worthy of recreation in a Hans Christian Andersen paperback that I would probably not purchase.

However, a Johnathan Thurston triumph would easily trump this. It would trump anything. In fact, Jarryd Hayne would have to lead San Francisco and Parramatta to drought-breaking titles inside the same year to even be included in the same bookcase.

Verdict: hearts are warm for Justin, but Thurston’s tears at Monday night’s Dally Ms clinched it. Totally on-brand for a screenplay. Cowboys 13+.

The niggles
Again, another factor where Thurston and Hodges hog the limelight. I feel they are being frequently mentioned this week. It’s as if they are crucial to their team’s chances or something?

After a couple of hectic wobblers off the kicking tee against Melbourne, it’s obvious the Cowboys co-captain is carrying something. Some say it’s a calf, some say it’s a groin. I say let’s just add a caveman muscle and call it the full leg.

Danny Weidler reported this week that the halfback’s discomfort meant he has been “unable to stand and unable to sit”. So while he may be hampered on Sunday, a week of squatting should have his thighs rippling at Jean-Claude Van Damme levels come kickoff, and when the massage oil glistens off them in the fading sunlight it will be a surefire opportunity to Insta with no filter.

On the other hand, the Brisbane captain is suffering from a back issue, but he insists he will be a certain starter for Sunday. To alleviate any concerns, he has called a press conference for Saturday to confirm, with Aiden Guerra also on hand to testify.

Verdict: an injection to the nether regions doesn’t sound flash. The Broncos by a sinew.

The body language
There are two things on this planet that take the cake for hyper-awkwardness. One is when you’re enjoying a movie with your parents and a sex scene unexpectedly begins, and another is Parramatta’s 2001 grand final breakfast.

Upon entering the fry-up looking stiff in their ultra-90s turtlenecks, we all immediately knew in hindsight that the Eels were smoked. Body language experts sensed their crippling tension, while fashionistas mused how a team of Bohemian artisans had been admitted to the NRL.

In the end, Parra were flogged, and from here, stout pre-match body language had become indispensable.

While the breakfast has been abolished after rocking too many betting markets, there have been plenty of public appearances by the players this week that can be over-analysed. Who has looked most composed?

It can be safely reported that no skivvies have been spotted, and more importantly, a lot of players were seen refusing phone communication from Brian Smith. It seems these guys have been well informed.

Verdict: this one is neck-and-neck. However, it was reported that the left side of Wayne Bennett’s mouth pursed in to the shape of a semi-circle on Thursday morning. It could’ve been a relaxed smile, but then again, maybe he was just wincing on some grapefruit. Nevertheless, Broncos.

The coaches
Fire up the cliché widget, because it’s master against apprentice. Mentor versus protege. Mickey Goldmill versus Rocky Balboa. Chubbs Peterson versus Happy Gilmore.

One is papal-like, a prophet shrouded in a mystical aura and protected by a circle of trust that is bordering on becoming a secret society, a visionary who challenged the orthodoxy and moulded it in to his own, who with an uplift on his current record will finish his career in 25 years as a 15-time premiership-winning UN delegate and a Knight of the Realm.

The other one has won two Queensland Cup titles.

Verdict: do I even need to say it?

The result
My faultless formula has helped me see the light. Considering the 22-carat affection for Thurston, Wayne’s regal air and my $2 mystery FootyTab ticket, it’s the Broncos in golden point.