Winning the World Cup is all about momentum

The 2015 Rugby World Cup is near the end of the round-robin stage, with one round left to play, and many memorable matches have been played in packed stadiums.

This Rugby World Cup has been claimed to be the best so far, with the largest ticket sales and its marvellous atmosphere of intense excitement and pure fun.

The crowds are dressed in their team colours, colourful signs, smiles, laughs, plus the meaty business of the oohs and aahs in the progress of the play, has provided strong support for the claims about ‘best-ever’.

We now know that England are gone. Downed 33-13 by Australia at Fortress Twickenham, the unexpected loss to Wales the week before put the writing on the wall. Claims of a three billion pound hit to the English economy if England lost were made prior to the defeat, and commentators such as ex-All Black Jeff Wilson have stated that it would be a tragedy if the host nation didn’t make it out of the pools.

But it has happened, and the competition carries on regardless. There is a sneaking suspicion that Jeff Wilson’s comments were made in the hope that the hosts would despatch the Wallabies and so damage their confidence and their chances of progression. The Wallabies performance has been the standout performance so far in the pools, notwithstanding the many other entertaining matches that have been played.

Japan beating the Springboks was a dazzler, and the Springboks coach Heineyke Meyer looked like his world had caved in as he stormed from the coach’s box upon the winning Japanese try being scored in the 84th minute. Had the Springboks come undermanned and underplanned?

Was it the coach, or the players? What could have gone wrong? Will they lose to Scotland and maybe not get out of the pools?

Those aficionados of Springbok rugby would have known that the next team to play them was in big trouble. The wounded Bok is a fearful beast, and the Bok focus appears to be almost solely on the Rugby World Cup these days. Damian De Allende was back at 12 after captain Jean de Villiers’ broken jaw, and the two young lock juggernauts Lodewyk De Jager and Eben Etzebeth, along with Daniel Vermuelen, gave the pack real power. Samoa was dealt with 46-6, followed by Scotland 34-16.

The Boks are back, and building.

One thing that is noticeable about the Rugby World Cup is how fast things can change. Team personnel and playing style may have looked largely settled except at the margins before the tournament, but events can overtake teams. Incorrectly selected squads or teams, and predictable patterns of play have been exposed, particularly in the case of England, but there is a hint of similar problems in other teams as well.

The Boks may have dodged a bullet losing their first match, because the two points they gained were as good as a draw, so the loss wasn’t fatal. But, it was such a shock that personnel and attitude had to change. Victor Matfield was a casualty, and De Allende is a very dangerous 12, even though De Villiers was a respected captain as well.

How are the Irish going? Pre-Rugby World Cup form over the last few years has seen them near the top of the rankings, yet their struggle against Italy to win 16-9 did not look promising. Perhaps it was one bad match. They had disposed of Canada 50-7 and Romania 44-10, after all. Their personnel and playing patterns are largely the same, and that might be a problem as the tournament progresses.

France has been keeping a pretty low profile, but Freddy Michulak has been in commanding form, probably the best of his career by far. The forwards are powerful and the set-piece delivers, while there is firepower to finish in the backs. Beating Italy 32-10 was in stark relief to the Irish performance, while beating Romania 38-11 and Canada 41-18 were similar, though not quite as good.

We find out this week, with the pool D playoff for the top spot. I see France as the likely winner, but it will be the manner of the winning of the match and the quality of the opposition on the day, that will give us insight into any likely prospect for higher honours.

Australia have produced the standout performance so far in beating England 33-13. If they follow up in similar style to despatch Wales, they will have placed their marker as genuine contenders. Little things continue to be adjusted on the field, and the patterns of play are varying, if marginally. If the set-piece and composure hold firm and even progress, then the Wallabies will be very hard to beat.

New Zealand have had the highest profile other than the hosts, England, and have not so far shown the precision and efficiency we have come to expect from them. They are the favourites, and rightly so, but a few things need to start going right to get them over the line at the end of the tournament. Their backs are dynamic, but the precision is not quite there.

Their forwards have seen some front-row tinkering, and it could be that some players are past their best. Beating Georgia 43-10 was a flattering result at the end, so their match to come against Tonga will be interesting.

The five teams discussed, South Africa, Ireland, France, Australia, and New Zealand are the group from which the winner must certainly come. So, of that five, which have shown improvement in the tournament over previous form or expectations, and which have not?

South Africa, having regrouped in their laagers after their loss to Japan, look better now than in the recent Rugby Championship. They look like they have the right players in the right positions, and they are starting to look dangerous.

France have a Gallic mysticism about their ability to play on any given day, which New Zealand know only too well, and they too seem to have moved the right players to the right positions. With Michulak pulling the strings, they could do it. They’ve lost in the Final in 1987 (NZ), 1999 (Wallabies) and 2011 (NZ), so they are really overdue.

Australia are the third team whose prospects have progressed during the Rugby World Cup pools, and once more, it is the selections that now seem correct that is a big part. Other elements, such as attitude, preparation and tactics have had a big effect in underpinning their on-field performances. They are likely to play Scotland in the quarters, followed by France or Argentina in the semis.

The Irish give the impression of being just past the peak of their prowess, which has been mighty over the last few years. The timing of the 2015 Rugby World Cup might not in the end suit them. They don’t appear to be offering anything new on the field, and oppositions are always well-prepared. You can’t write them off, but the stars may not be aligned for the Irish in 2015.

NZ must make history and be the first team to successfully defend their title gained in New Zealand in 2011 as the hosts. Alas for England, Fortress Twickenham couldn’t paper over the cracks, so the hosts are not going to win successive tournaments. Both New Zealand Rugby World Cup wins have been in New Zealand as well, so a victory in England is new territory.

But that’s the back story. What about their on-field performances? The Wallabies beat them in Sydney, but they bounced back with a resounding victory in Auckland the following week. On that form they could indeed make history. Michael Cheika made many changes to the Wallaby team that lost in Auckland, and the settled selections now look nearly the same as in Sydney, and not a lot like the Auckland team.

The quarter final against Ireland or France will be the first real guide to their chances, and if it is Ireland, they will probably win. Facing France in a quarter could be a big hurdle. A follow-up against South Africa in the semi would then be likely.

In a previous article I predicted the Rugby World Cup Final would be between Australia and Ireland. Since then, however, Ireland seem to have stalled, and France and the Springboks have come on strongly. New Zealand have probably stalled as well, but at a higher level. After the Pools, we will know if France will play New Zealand or Argentina in the quarters, and so South Africa or Australia in the SF if they win.

If France lose a quarter final to the All Blacks, then South Africa versus New Zealand is a monster SF. Australia versus Ireland would most probably be the other semi. Obviously there are many permutations, but I see New Zealand being beaten by either France in a quarter or South Africa in a semi. I see Ireland falling over at either the quarters or the semis. France will probably be eliminated by NZ, SA or Australia. Australia v South Africa is then my choice of finalists.

Still, anything can happen, and the exciting part is seeing the likely winner emerge from the process looking like a team that is making consistent progress and most likely to peak on the day of the final.