Don't write Scotland off just yet

Bloodied, battered and beaten half to death, Stephen Moore and his magnificent Wallabies have emerged from Pool A – the infamous Pool of Death – victorious and undefeated.

Having had our cruel and autocratic ruler World Rugby send our gladiators into the arena to face what, at one point, looked like certain death they have conquered men from across the globe – as far afield as Fiji, Wales and the old foe England.

And while Sam Warburton and Wales too survived the bloodbath, they will now face another Herculean task, back-to-back finals against the Springboks and should they survive that, they will most likely face the All Blacks.

Australia meanwhile earned an extra day of rest, along with it the right to walk the ‘easy’ road to the final – Scotland in the quarters and then either Ireland or Argentina the week after.

Based on the way this has been broadly reported in the media, a casual observer could be forgiven for thinking that the Northern Hemisphere side of the draw is paved with satin and edged by angels holding bouquets tied in tickets to the World Cup final.

David Lord has predicted an Australia versus New Zealand final and in the process a faux-Grand Slam along the way.

Amazingly, even the power rankings in the New Zealand Herald have the Wallabies edging the All Blacks as tournament favourites, even before that marvellous victory against Wales in the final match of Pool A.

From professional to pundit and in pub banter all over the country it seems that everyone is tipping Australia to make it to the final and earn a shot at the trophy.

And they have a point.

Scotland only edged Samoa, ranked 15th in the world, by 3 points. Hooker Ross Ford and lock Jonny Gray have subsequently been suspended for dangerous play and will not take part in the upcoming match.

Ireland, the predicted semi-final opponent, have even bigger problems. An injury toll that would make even the cursed Welsh green with envy, and the suspension of breakaway Sean O’Brien for striking, means that three key players will be missing from their starting pack.

Blindside flanker Peter O’Mahoney has done his knee. Paul O’Connell, the captain and soul of the Irish team, has ruined his hamstring sufficiently to ensure that he’ll likely never play international rugby again.

As if losing O’Connell wasn’t enough, to add injury to insult and injury, star flyhalf Johnny Sexton has sustained a groin injury and though it appears that he will play whether or not he is 100 per cent remains to be seen.

That is that then. Australia’s band of merry men will skip along satin paved path to the final, collect their tickets from the angels and simply fill up the William Webb Ellis trophy with champagne on arrival. They will earn themselves a place in Rugby Heaven as they cross the speedhump of the best All Black team to have ever donned the uniform.

No.

Not at all.

Not even close.

Rugby is a game for the humble. And while the Wallabies have come through Pool A looking like potential champions, let’s not forget how close the matches were.

Any match played to within such a fine margin can go to either team on the day. It is more likely that one will win than others, but I would have loved to see someone try to explain that to South Africa after their first Pool match or the All Blacks in 2007 after they were beaten by France.

A poor decision by the referee can leave a team down a man for 10 minutes at a crucial moment in the match or, heaven forbid, the entire match as happened to Welsh captain Sam Warburton just 17 minutes into their semi with France in 2011. Even a couple of ill-considered penalties might have been enough to see Wales topple Australia just a few short days ago – so aren’t we getting a bit ahead of ourselves?

And have any of the pundits who are so assured of a Wallaby victory ever seen a rugby ball? It’s a bastard of a thing. Not even really a ball at all if you look at it closely, more like the shape of a lemon or lime. Sometimes it just doesn’t bounce your way, as the time honored post-match cliché goes, and that can be the difference between losing by three or a try in the corner.

Of course, as Christopher Roche so aptly described this week, luck – be it born from referee or roll of the ball – is in truth a product of hard work. The challenge now is that the Wallabies must not do what we all seem to have done and read too much of their own press.

Scotland and Ireland are both proud rugby nations, and on a given day are capable of beating any team in the world. In fact Australia has lost to Scotland on two of the last three occasions that the teams have competed.

It is possible too that the wounded Irish will not beat Argentina, another prematurely assumed outcome. Form is harder to judge when it comes to the Argie, off the back of a less challenging pool. However, they certainly gave the All Blacks a fright and that on its own is enough to demand that they be respected.

Fortunately, it is the neither the job of the media nor the fans to manage the mental state and humility of the players. That comes down to coach Michael Cheika.

Inexperience aside, from the outside the signs are good. Cheika is starting to look like he could be a special coach, cast in the image of Vince Lombardi, a true motivator of men.

He has given the team direction and restored pride in the jersey. It’s amazing when you watch the player interviews closely just how deeply ingrained the goals and reasons for them seem to have been ingrained.

Recently I was able to have a brief chat with Stephen Moore, Scott Fardy and Will Skelton at a corporate event and it was clear speaking to each of them that Cheika has made sure they all know why they pull on the jersey. To make their family proud and for the man next to them are the recurring themes.

However, at the point end of the tournament it only takes 80 sub-par minutes to make sure you’re out for another four years. The Scots are a proud nation and even without Ford and Gray, like the Brave Blossoms before them, they will be playing for their lives. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain and that can be enough in a game of rugby.

Australia too have injury problems. Both their most influential back and most influential forward are set to sit out this game on the sideline.

Both sides of the draw promise to provide some spectacular rugby over the next couple of weeks, and at this point nothing can be granted. It seems like every single Wallaby player has said it at one time or another, at this point we can only look at our next opponent – and right now that is Scotland.

Please, oh mighty gods of the rugby universe, please let us beat the Scots on Monday morning and I’ll never ask you for anything again – I promise.