Winx’s Cox Plate win was breathtaking. Thrilling, stunning, amazing. The only shame was that it can’t be taken completely on its merits.
It’s hard to recall a Group 1 day of greater bias, at least towards horses on the rail, in my time following racing.
It’s amazing what moving a rail out three metres can do, which is what happened for Cox Plate day after it was in the true position for the Manikato Stakes meeting the night before.
Eight of the ten winners on Cox Plate day spent the vast majority of their race time on the rail. Winx was the most obvious of these, jumping from Barrier 1, settling just forward of midfield, and never having to go around a horse as she careered away.
She certainly exploded away on the turn and skipped away down the straight, in the same manner other horses had done earlier in the day, notably three-year-olds My Popette and Holler, which won their respective races by a combined seven lengths after both leading on the rail the entire time.
My Popette and Holler were two of four rail-hugging all-the-way winners on the day, with the others being Turn Me Loose in the Crystal Mile and Coronation Shallan in the last.
The two-year-old winner sat on the fence, went around one horse and found the rail in the straight again to drive through in the fastest of fast lanes, albeit we didn’t know it at the time.
The United States won the Moonee Valley Cup after only spending a handful of seconds off the fence during the entire race. The horse he ran down was of course the leader. It was some four lengths back to the third placed horse.
Jameka won the Vase after a remarkably similar run to both Winx and The United States – she was also snuggled away on the rails, and only had to go around one horse in order to win, which was another runaway leader that was just reeled in late.
First, second and fourth in the Vase all had rails runs the entire race. First, second and fourth in the Cox all had rails runs the entire race. In almost every race there were big margins through the field, regardless of distance.
Turn Me Loose almost broke the track record for 1600m after going wire-to-wire. Winx did break the course record in the Cox Plate. Neither horse spent a second away from the rail.
It’s clear after this summary of events that the rail was lengths faster than any other part of the track. How many lengths, we’ll never know. But the simple fact is not every horse had their chance on Saturday. Even less so in the Cox Plate.
What about poor Happy Trails, eight or nine horses wide? Or Kermadec, Preferment and Gailo Chop on his inside as they rounded the home turn. They might as well have been running on quicksand, or into a brick wall.
Everyone thirsts for a racing superstar, and Winx may just be it. But is she really nine lengths better than the third best horse in Australia? And is Pornichet, a 60-1 shot, really that horse?
Perhaps Winx would have won the Secretariat by 10 lengths if she’d run there instead of Highland Reel? After all, she had five and a half to spare on him in the Cox Plate, and he decimated the Secretariat field.
And shouldn’t she have beaten the most moderate of Epsom Handicap fields by a lot more than a couple of lengths?
I’m being facetious of course, as we all know racing doesn’t work that way.
But it is worth noting that outside of Winx, there have been eight horses out of the Epsom run, and none of them has run a place at their next start. The closest a horse has got to winning has been two and a half lengths, and they’ve all lost by an average of close enough to six lengths with no blow-outs among them.
Winx was so visually impressive, so stunning in victory, that everyone wants it to be a case of what we see is what we get. That seeing is believing. That she can take on the world, and win.
She’s a bloody good mare. Could well be a superstar. We know she’s always had something special about her, and Chris Waller hasn’t been shy about how highly he rates her.
I just wish we could definitively say that every Cox Plate horse was beaten on their merits, and the best horse won on the day. We don’t actually know that for sure.
Either way, I can’t wait to see her again in the autumn to get tested again. It’s been a few years since I’ve been up to Sydney for the autumn carnival. I’ll be there this time.
Hindsight
Guest
Good on you Malevu, "you tell em love" and I know what I am talking about because it is now March 2017 and the benefit of hindsight is very much available to me. Winx is something very special, no doubt about it. Yes, it is verging on impossible to rationally compare horses of different eras and horses who race over different distances but heavens, in 60 years of being a keen racing enthusiast, I find it hard to think I have seen a better quality mare. She is so good on all sorts of surfaces and a good range of distances (certainly 1400 to 2200).
Richard
Guest
Hi Cameron, Just thought i revisit this post to see if your sentiments about Winx and its favorable bias have changed any?? Cheers Richard
Malevu
Guest
Its ridiculous to say that Winx has to replicate her spring form next autumn in order for it to be validated. Any genuine race goer can see the merit of her last 5 runs, all of them truly outstanding. I can't recall 5 other outstanding consecutive wins over a variety of distances, for many a year. You can throw up Black Caviar but she was racing over 1000-1200 metres against vastly inferior horses to herself. Did Winx have track bias in her favour in Queensland when she came from last of 17 on the home turn and won running away ? Stop being a knocker and accept you've just witnessed an exceptional string of wins from a clearly top notch racehorse, regardless of what happens in the autumn.
Cameron Rose
Expert
At least half of the field in my opinion Tom. And her performance was still stunning, but we can't take it completely at face value. It's certainly not in question that she's a great horse!
Cameron Rose
Expert
Track record because of the bias, nothing more, nothing less. And you're right, it's not her fault.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Yes, Criterion got a similar run, on the rails, and he finished second. I doubt Criterion has the same turn of foot as Winx, but if you swap their runs (with Criterion smashing Winx), I think we may well have gotten a different result.
Tom Riordan
Roar Rookie
Half of the field were never a chance with the track as it was, which is a great shame because the field had so much talent to offer. Winx might be a genuine star, but her Cox Plate win has to be taken as another in a stunning portfolio, not as the stand-out performance.
Casper
Guest
Track record says it all! Get over it. Not her problem that the mooney valley course superintendents stuffed up by racing in the true position on Friday night.
Bevo
Guest
Didn't Criterion get the same run? Yeah he got clipped when they both went for the run but was still smashed by 4.75 lengths?? Let's say that cost Criterion 2 lengths (it didn't), Winx still beats him by nearly three lengths. I'm guessing you didn't back her Cameron, how about credit where it's due. Did any horses come down the middle to win on the day??
Geoff Parkes
Expert
My point exactly Nathan. Sure, they all can't race on the rail but there were a few that could have, if they'd taken the initiative.
andrew
Guest
whobegotyou and alcopop both won from back in the field on guineas day in 09. the derby day you refer to was horribly biased. divine madonna got beat in the myer classic cos of the bias and won emirates easily the following sat. it was a very biased track on cup day a few years ago too when fiorente won, but no one batted an eyelid. the meeting that is always biased is one at MV in mid-august as they race with rial out 5m every time.
andrew
Guest
rails biased tracks also are more dangerous as there is tighter racing and more likely to be interference. leaders can still (and do) win regularly on tracks where the rail is 'off'
Cameron Rose
Expert
Interesting perspective Razzar. And I think part of what made it so surreal was that almost all the other competitors are known quantities, and it was hard to believe something could whip them all so soundly. Love that last paragraph too. We're all seasoned punters, we know the pitfalls. We're allowed to comment on what we see without being accused of whinging.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Good call Nath. Ryan Moore had an eternity to find the rail on Highland Reel, but for some reason chose to stay off. Craig Williams on Arod never really had that chance for mine, as he'd obviously committed to being very positive from the gates.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Yeah, I've got my suspicions too. As does the market for that matter.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Thanks Joe, much appreciated mate.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Yep, she's going for a spell Johny, and will take aim at the Queen Elizabeth in the autumn, naturally.
Razzar
Guest
Like the billy cart on the footpath and the others mainly running on the nature strip. Winx's turn of foot seemed almost earrilly instant, almost, not possible. She found traction whilst others were battling, she did excellerate before the turn, but it's uncanny ness, has me perplexed. Shot from a gun-like. Can I get odds she'll never ping like that again. Had she had to take a line into straight alongside Highland Reel, I suspect it would've been a far, far closer contest. The Reel was taking ground off Criterrion late. Most of us roarers can take it on the chin, " we aren't whinging" As punters that spend many serious hours doing form, it's natural there should be an expectation that the tracks in the majority, race reasonably Fairly. ?
Nathan Absalom
Roar Guru
I agree with you totally, inside track bias at Moonee Valley is worse than other tracks because there is only a short straight, so horses are sprinting around the corner. Nevertheless, Winx won very well and the margin was emphatic, regardless of the bias. The thing I did not understand was why neither Arod nor Highland Reel took the sit on the rail behind The Cleaner during the race. Every punter had worked out that's where you wanted to be after about race 4, but maybe the instructions to the jockeys were decided sometime earlier, and not overly flexible?
joe
Guest
Good article Cameron.I always enjoy reading your race previews as well as your take on racing in general with pieces like this.