According to most major betting sources, the All Blacks are heavy favourites heading into this Saturday’s Rugby World Cup final.
Odds are usually a pretty strong reflection of the merits of two teams heading into a sporting fixture and are usually based on a pretty clear rationale.
In this case however I believe they have it all wrong.
Of course there is some logic behind the All Blacks’ heavy favouritism, given the dominance they have not only shown over the rugby world for the past four seasons but also over their Australian rivals.
However, anyone who believes that this automatically means that it will be more of the same on Saturday needs a severe reality check.
If a judge were calling this one based on precedent than the All Blacks would get the verdict by a unanimous decision, but as we all know in sport precedent often counts for nothing.
There is very little separating these two sides, and when scanning through the team lists it becomes quickly apparent that both sides are incredibly evenly matched.
It is an often used barometer in team sports to go through the teams for both sides on a man for man basis to decide who has the greatest chance of victory. So the theory goes, the side who comes out on top of the ledger in the man for man stakes should be the clear favourite.
With the All Blacks versus Wallabies over the past decade, this exercise has more often than not been about as one sided as a piece of Phil Kearns commentary.
Using this tool of measurement to decide the favourite for this weekends game hammers home just how evenly poised this game is.
Starting up front, you would have to say that there is very little splitting the two front rows. The return of captain Stephen Moore in 2015, in addition to Mario Ledesmo’s expert tutelage, has brought the sides closer than they have been for years.
Next up and the second row is one of the few clear areas that would have to be in the All Blacks favour. The combination of Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock are the best on the planet. However, with the return of Kane Douglas adding so much grunt to the Wallabies front five it certainly is not as clear cut as it would have been twelve months ago.
Much has been made of John Eales comments in declaring the Australian back row as the world’s best.
Looking at it purely on form and with recent performances, I don’t think you can argue. David Pocock has been the best player on the planet this year and is having the sort of influence on games as Richie McCaw himself did in his pomp.
Michael Hooper his usual world-class self and Scott Fardy an absolute revelation. On the other hand, Jerome Kaino has taken a while to warm into his work and Kieran Read – well we have all been waiting.
Does this give the points to the Wallabies then? No, due to the All Blacks’ big match experience, but it is pretty darn close. Points shared.
Moving to the backs and the halves combinations, they are also pretty even. With the return to form of Will Genia there is not too much in his battle with Aaron Smith. A fit and firing Dan Carter would have to edge Bernard Foley, but perhaps not by the greatest of margins.
In my opinion inside centre is another of the few areas where the edge lies definitively with one side.
Although Matt Giteau has added much to the backline since his return, I believe this is one position where the All Blacks have a decisive edge. Ma’a Nonu’s power game, which asks more questions of the opposition than a parliamentary inquiry, gives the All Blacks the edge there. Conrad Smith and Tevita Kuridrani cancel each other out at 13.
Again, this one is almost too close to call. Israel Folau and Ben Smith are two gems at the back for their respective sides and both sets of wings are quality.
Looking at the benches and again it becomes hard to split the sides. Look at Kurtley Beale and Beauden Barrett and the eerily similar qualities they have. The bench may just be the area where the All Blacks do edge the Wallabies, but not by much.
So how do you split such evenly matched sides? I have a feeling that it may come down to which side devises and executes the best game plan. You can be sure that both sets of coaches will put plenty of thought into specific ways they will want to target the opposition.
On paper its too close to call, it could be a classic.
taylorman
Roar Guru
That's the whole point of a statement, it's a double edged sword. You can have the weight both behind you and on you...there's no secret in that.
LMOB7
Guest
So basically you have all but admitted that it would need a failure on the part of the AB's to give the Wobblies even a chance of winning??????????? Gentlemen it's not going to happen. Go The Mighty All Blacks
somer
Guest
Probably because at that time White and Cooper were performing as well or better than any of the other options, the idea that Genia, Phipps and Foley were obviously superior performers back then is false revisionist thinking. The YC disadvantage keeps popping up but this ignores the reality that nearly every test match has YCs, if not multiple YCs, and it's rarely becomes a deciding factor in a match. The ABs have coped well on multiple occasions.
Markymark
Guest
Gottaluv the Ozzie banter & heckling. Fact is Oz is always a good team, even when they're not firing on all cyl's. Sadly the banter would be much improved with some well reasoned, rational analysis. Heres my pick of events. Oz will have to field Pocock with a smashed snooter and 2 black eyes alongside Folau with a dicky leg cos they lack depth. Both won't last long. Givem 50-60 mins max. Oz looked and played like zombies the last 10 of the Argie bash. Walking dead courtesy of the Pool of Death. A lack of battle hardening is now showing. All Blacks will be licking their lips in anticipation. Giteau is the Conductor of the band. Without him Ooopsie! Target him and his inside cronies and the AB's will have a field day. Pococks nose might as well have a target on it. What the Argies couldn't finish off the AB's will. Folau's dicky pin will get run all over the show early, call the stretcher. 60th minute SBW appears and the tenderised dingo backline starts getting run straight at. Game over.
TryCBT..or...
Guest
You do have to ask.. "Why did Cheila play N. White in Auk for a whole match, to not include him in his 31?" Why didn't he sub him in Auk? "Why didn't Cheika pick the same pack and bench as won the game the week before?" "Why did Cooper get a go (and how many tries were scored when he was off)?" I was massively annoyed with his selections that week as were thousands (of Aussies)...Cheika got roasted in The Aus press for gambling with The Bled so it's not as cut and dried as some would suggest. I think we'll find out on Sat anywho.
thetouchfindergeneral
Guest
All true - but there again look at the path to the final.The Wallabies have had a *much* tougher route, so it is hardly surprising they have fewer carries over the gain line etc. The results against the only side they have both played might provide a better indicator.
Rocky
Guest
You cannot view it like that as the All Blacks gained all those meters and scored these tries against weaker opposition. Remember the "group of death"?
bill
Guest
I don't understand your final paragraph at all. Based on what you say prior to the final paragraph, surely your conclusion should be All Blacks by at least 20.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
New Zealand have lost twice under Owens and Australia aren't playing away, are they? They're playing at a neutral venue.
redheavy
Roar Rookie
Why by writing comments that 99% of the population can tell are humorous, thereby giving us all something to laugh at when the 1% rise to the bait with their witless indignation. See, not much to being a guru after all!
CA3ZAR
Roar Pro
I do hope all blacks win, it'll be a tough match!!
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Stephen Moore better be on his best behaviour then with Owens !
WEST
Roar Guru
Wallabies should be more concerned about Scott Sio, the Pumas hammered the Wallabies scrum when Slipper came on, conceding three penalties. Cheika says they're all fit but time will tell on the day. The Wallabies line out will be tested with the All Blacks, Sam Whitlock, Brodie Retallick, Kieran Read and co winning a number of lineouts over the Springboks. Peacock is great at the breakdowns with14 steals thats five more than any other player at the tournament. But Read (8) and Richie McCaw (6) show the value of a combined assault at the breakdowns. But the breakdown is only one area of the game... Most metres made All Blacks fullback Ben Smith is on 453m. Milner-Skudder is next-best with 437m and Savea lies fifth with 395m. It’s a long way back to the top Aussie Drew Mitchell who is 10th on the list with 283m. Most clean breaks Here’s another category where there is daylight between the two teams. Milner-Skudder and Smith are third-equal on the table with 10 breaks each and Savea is right behind them with nine. Bernard Foley is the best Australian with eight while Mitchell and Ashley-Cooper squeeze into the top 20. Carries over the gain line Kieran Read’s 31 places him third overall while Sonny Bill Williams’ 28 sees him lie fifth despite his limited game time. Ben Smith has 24, Savea 22 and Conrad Smith 21 while there is an embarrassing absence of any Australians in the top 20. Lineout steals Another category where the All Blacks lead. Read’s six sees him top the table, one more than New Zealand lock Brodie Retallick. The Wallabies pair of Dean Mumm (4) and Rob Simmons (3) are next-best. The Wallabies can't be good in just one area, they have to be the best in all areas to win the Final. Oh and tries scored... Julian Savea tops the tournament list with eight. Nehe Milner-Skudder has five to be second best. The Wallabies have wings Drew Mitchell and Adam Ashley-Cooper with four, lying sixth on the overall table. Massive test, it'll will be won in the second half when the legs become heavy. The last 20 minutes will be very crucial for both sides.
wardad
Guest
Yes antoni its something master umm stroking alrighty .
bennalong
Guest
Strange game you're playing Harry. You seem such a nice bloke.
boonzie
Guest
1 vs 2 ranked team... Not surprisingly 1 is the favorite.
Short-Blind
Guest
I love it...the kiwis are cocky just like when I walked into the Olympic Stadium in 2003 for the semi....the crowing was V quiet on the train back to the Surry Hills pub. Forget the man vs man comparison (except Nonu) for me it comes down to two things...as many have mentioned the 'headspace' will be so important. Can Chieka get the Wallabies believing (good evidence so far)....and will Chieks get the bench on at 55/60 as our boys will be tired and the kiwis go 'full court press' at this time in every match. Can Chieks learn from his often late bench injection? If u look at the man on man the biggest delta is Gits and Nonu. Gits is small and injured - yes he has experience (but not in a RWC final). None gets over the gain line and makes breaks regularly. If I was Chieks I'd run on Tomua for his 'D' and maybe bring on Gits at 55 when defence have slackend etc. Toomua will stop Nonu and thus the kiwi go forward a lot better. BTW Smith has Folua covered - from an ex fullback from QLD.
Phantom
Roar Rookie
how about the league
Council
Guest
What was it... 13 - 6 in favour of the Boks? Gee theys disciplined.. That said I like Garces. Thought he has been clear and concise in his communication with players this Tourny, I'd be happy for him to have it.
Council
Guest
And the "I'm being deliberately obtuse" award goes too.. Drumroll please... Oh wait, I can't believe it, Paul congratulations!!!