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According to most major betting sources, the All Blacks are heavy favourites heading into this Saturday’s Rugby World Cup final.
Odds are usually a pretty strong reflection of the merits of two teams heading into a sporting fixture and are usually based on a pretty clear rationale.
In this case however I believe they have it all wrong.
Of course there is some logic behind the All Blacks’ heavy favouritism, given the dominance they have not only shown over the rugby world for the past four seasons but also over their Australian rivals.
However, anyone who believes that this automatically means that it will be more of the same on Saturday needs a severe reality check.
If a judge were calling this one based on precedent than the All Blacks would get the verdict by a unanimous decision, but as we all know in sport precedent often counts for nothing.
There is very little separating these two sides, and when scanning through the team lists it becomes quickly apparent that both sides are incredibly evenly matched.
It is an often used barometer in team sports to go through the teams for both sides on a man for man basis to decide who has the greatest chance of victory. So the theory goes, the side who comes out on top of the ledger in the man for man stakes should be the clear favourite.
With the All Blacks versus Wallabies over the past decade, this exercise has more often than not been about as one sided as a piece of Phil Kearns commentary.
Using this tool of measurement to decide the favourite for this weekends game hammers home just how evenly poised this game is.
Starting up front, you would have to say that there is very little splitting the two front rows. The return of captain Stephen Moore in 2015, in addition to Mario Ledesmo’s expert tutelage, has brought the sides closer than they have been for years.
Next up and the second row is one of the few clear areas that would have to be in the All Blacks favour. The combination of Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock are the best on the planet. However, with the return of Kane Douglas adding so much grunt to the Wallabies front five it certainly is not as clear cut as it would have been twelve months ago.
Much has been made of John Eales comments in declaring the Australian back row as the world’s best.
Looking at it purely on form and with recent performances, I don’t think you can argue. David Pocock has been the best player on the planet this year and is having the sort of influence on games as Richie McCaw himself did in his pomp.
Michael Hooper his usual world-class self and Scott Fardy an absolute revelation. On the other hand, Jerome Kaino has taken a while to warm into his work and Kieran Read – well we have all been waiting.
Does this give the points to the Wallabies then? No, due to the All Blacks’ big match experience, but it is pretty darn close. Points shared.
Moving to the backs and the halves combinations, they are also pretty even. With the return to form of Will Genia there is not too much in his battle with Aaron Smith. A fit and firing Dan Carter would have to edge Bernard Foley, but perhaps not by the greatest of margins.
In my opinion inside centre is another of the few areas where the edge lies definitively with one side.
Although Matt Giteau has added much to the backline since his return, I believe this is one position where the All Blacks have a decisive edge. Ma’a Nonu’s power game, which asks more questions of the opposition than a parliamentary inquiry, gives the All Blacks the edge there. Conrad Smith and Tevita Kuridrani cancel each other out at 13.
Again, this one is almost too close to call. Israel Folau and Ben Smith are two gems at the back for their respective sides and both sets of wings are quality.
Looking at the benches and again it becomes hard to split the sides. Look at Kurtley Beale and Beauden Barrett and the eerily similar qualities they have. The bench may just be the area where the All Blacks do edge the Wallabies, but not by much.
So how do you split such evenly matched sides? I have a feeling that it may come down to which side devises and executes the best game plan. You can be sure that both sets of coaches will put plenty of thought into specific ways they will want to target the opposition.
On paper its too close to call, it could be a classic.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.