2015 Derby Day: Victoria Derby, Mackinnon, Coolmore Stud, Myer Classic Group 1 previews

Victoria Derby day is one of the top handful of race days in Australia, the first meeting during Flemington’s famous cup week. There are four Group 1 races on offer, so let’s have a look at them.

AAMI Victoria Derby – $1,500,000 – 2500m, set weights, three years old
Tarzino is the raging favourite for the race, with not much more than even money being offered for the Mick Price-trained colt. He’s looked every inch the Derby horse in his five starts, including arguably the run of the day in the Vase at Moonee Valley last week, and has staying blood on both sides of his breeding.

He’s clearly the one to beat, but I’m not sure I could take the short odds in this kind of race, where every horse is unproven at the distance. We’ve seen plenty of favourites get beat over the years, and you have to go back to Efficient in 2006 to find a Derby winner jumping at around the price Tarzino will.

Shards almost took out the Vase leading all the way last week, benefiting from a track that was dynamite for those on the rail, but it’s hard to think he’ll be able to hold out Tarzino in this.

Perth’s Kia Ora Koutou is clear second favourite at this stage, unbeaten in his four career starts, all of them in Western Australia. He already has a win over 2200 metres on his resume, against older horses, but he hasn’t been beating much in small fields.

He’s also the most lightly-raced runner in the field, which might count against him. He is a month between runs, albeit with a trial in between times. He’s got it all in front of him, but looks a strong stayer in the making, and must be a threat.

Lizard Island brings the best Caulfield Guineas form to the race, when he was good in second behind Press Statement, a couple of lengths in front of Tarzino. He was the first colt home in the Caulfield Classic a week later, when things didn’t go his way having to race more forward than ideal, but only the gun filly Sacred Eye finished in front of him. He’s a talent.

Get the Picture was the best closer in the Caulfield Classic, motoring home once they straightened, so is an obvious danger from the race.

The Geelong Classic is the other main Victorian form reference, won by Extra Choice after the Hayes and Dabernig training team applied the blinkers to him. He had done just about everything wrong a horse can at the start previous, so it was a masterful gear change.

He attacked the line in a manner that suggested he’ll be a player in this Derby.

Jadeer was the best of the on-pacers in behind Extra Choice, but not doing enough to suggest he could necessarily turn the tables. Pay Up Bro was the eye-catcher late, and deserves respect. Adelaide horse Colonel Custer had nothing go his way at all, and is a genuine roughie for multiples.

Man of Choice ran third in the Spring Champion, one of only two horses from that race running here. Jadeer was behind him that day, and his form has lined up okay. He’s a chance.

Palace Tycoon is coming off a country preparation for Peter Moody, and might not be the worst horse to throw in a trifecta or first four. But then again he might be.

Ayres Rock will take them along, potentially with Shards for company. Ayres Rock won the UCI Stakes at Flemington two starts back, but then possibly wasn’t ridden to full advantage in the Caulfield Classic, with Darren Gauci being a bit soft on him in the run. He’s a horse that needs to get rolling a long way out, to try and grind his opposition down and get them off the bit chasing.

The favourite will be hard to beat, but not unbeatable. This Derby could be a race of complexity, or as simple as it looks.

Selections
1. Tarzino
2. Lizard Island
3. Kia Ora Koutou
4. Extra Choice

Mackinnon Stakes – $1,000,000 – 2000m, weight-for-age
This is the most open and toughest Mackinnon Stakes we’ve seen in years. It has proven a fruitful race for those backing up from the Cox Plate over the years, with six of the last seven winners doing so, and nine of the last 12.

Yet, the favourite, Magic Hurricane, is a horse that hasn’t won a WFA race, and in fact has only run in the one, when second in the Hill Stakes two starts back splitting Preferment and Complacent. He then walked in the Metrop a start later, and is a month into this race. He’s come a long way in a short time since being imported into Australia.

There are four Cox Plate runners backing up here – Fawkner, Happy Trails, Pornichet and Gailo Chop.

Pornichet finished fourth behind Winx, but had the benefit of running his entire race on the lightning rail. He’s a good horse though. Fawkner was never going to win the race once Bowman took off on Winx, so Damian Oliver rode a clever race to finish higher, get more prize-money and not tax the horse, going back to the inside to save ground rather than fanning out wide with the others from the 600-metre.

Gailo Chop tried to go for home early out wide, but came unstuck. He looked like he had something to give, but was running in quicksand. Happy Trails was given a hopeless task, and ran his usual good race, regardless of the form-guide saying he was beaten 13 lengths into 10th.

Contributor missed the Cox Plate to be saved for this race, and gets to Flemington for the first time this prep, which may suit. He’s been moderately performed this spring though, especially compared to his Sydney autumn highlights. If you take him, it will be on trust alone.

Magic Artist is a German 2000-metre horse, trained by the Melbourne Cup-winning Andreas Wohler, back in Melbourne after Protectionist’s exploits last year. He’s a good fresh horse, and the market suggests he’ll stack up.

Stratum Star is the fresh Victorian WFA horse on the scene, winner of the Group 1 Rupert Clarke and Group 3 Coongy after narrowly missing out on winning the Memsie Stakes earlier this prep. He’s tough, honest and classy, and is right in the thick of it.

Set Square could be the value runner, if we forgive her Caulfield Cup flop when racing upside down, and go on her close third in the Turnbull at this track and trip. Rising Romance has been disappointing since a good second in the Makybe Diva Stakes behind Fawkner, but is also capable on her day.

There are 10 legitimate winning chances in the race, so we’re all going to need luck to find the winner here!

Selections
1. Happy Trails
2. Stratum Star
3. Magic Hurricane
4. Pornichet

Coolmore Stud Stakes – $500,000 – 1200m, set weights, three years old
The Coolmore Stud Stakes is worth a lot more for stud value than the prize money on offer, and we’ve seen many a star three-year-old win this race over the last decade. Think of Brazen Beau, Zoustar, Nechita, Sepoy, Star Witness, Northern Meteor, Weekend Hussler and Gold Edition.

Exosphere looks poised to join that group, and at $1.40 in the betting will start shorter than any of those except Sepoy. He may be better than all of them, the perfect combination of “power, strength and elegance” according to The Roar’s Justin Cinque. You can read his glowing thoughts on the dazzling colt here, written after his dominant Golden Rose win.

Finishing behind Exosphere that day were subsequent Group 1 winners Speak Fondly (Flight Stakes) and Press Statement (Caulfield Guineas), a subsequent Group 3 winner in Holler, as well as Rageese who ran very well in the Guineas himself.

Exosphere is clearly the one to beat, and is unlikely to be.

Of the others, Ready For Victory is a good straight horse, and Guineas place-getter, so has the class to run a drum, or even win if something goes wrong with the favourite. Dal Cielo was so brave in the Caulfield Guineas, and has similar claims.

Keen Array is a nice horse and honest sprinter, but has been up for a while, even though he took out the Blue Sapphire last start. Sydney’s Mogador ran second there, and may have cost himself the race by being tardy out of the machines. The market says that form is the next best behind Exosphere, but I’m not convinced.

Of the other NSW colts, Japonisme has run behind Exosphere a couple of times in Sydney, and a similar run to those will put him in the trifecta mix for sure. Counterattack has won a couple of Listed races, but wasn’t in the same league as Exosphere when they clashed. Hellbent isn’t likely through the same formline.

Sebring Sun put in a lovely performance running third in the Golden Rose, and has been freshened for this since. He does have acceleration and might be a good place bet.

Super One arrived from Singapore unbeaten, but just couldn’t match it with our veteran older C-grade sprinters at Cranbourne. He’ll run well at odds, and can finish in the first four if things go right.

Selections
1. Exosphere
2. Ready For Victory
3. Counterattack
4. Sebring Sun

Myer Classic – $500,000 – 1600m, weight-for-age, mares only
The Myer Classic brings together the best mares in the land that can race competitively at a mile, and is rarely a let-down.

Gun fillies have a crack at this race from time to time, but rarely do they win it, however well credentialed they are. Thousand Guineas winner Stay With Me is the latest to attempt the feat, and will have the added burden of jumping as favourite.

The second horse in the Thousand Guineas, Jameka, won last week’s Vase at Moonee Valley, so the form has been franked already. Stay With Me has a stunning turn of foot once balanced, and is right in the race if she gets a chance to use it, but where she gets to from the widest gate adds another interesting dynamic.

Royal Descent is the testing material of the older mares, a role she performs at open WFA level against the boys with distinction. It’s been a year and a half since she took on her own sex, and since that time has raced 16 times for a win and 10 placings against the best horses in the country.

Azkadelia is only just out of restricted grade, but might just be a star in the making. Along with Tarzino, she was the best non-winning run out of the Moonee Valley meeting last Saturday, and while a race like the Myer might just be too much too soon, she’ll not be out of her depth.

Solicit is a good first-up and second-up mare that has always threatened to win a Group 1, but never quite been able to do it. She has returned well if her Tristarc run is any guide, and will be thereabouts again.

La Passe won the Tristarc at big odds, after winning the Blazer Stakes at big odds. She’s big odds again…

May’s Dream is quite literally tracking towards a win if you look at her last three starts. She started favourite in this race last year, and is going at least as well, if not better, this time around. She looks value.

Politeness is unbeaten in two runs this prep, winning both in her usual heart-in-mouth fashion for those following her, getting there in the last few strides. She’s stepping up to a mile, a distance she’s had a problem with in the past, off two 1200-metre runs, which is unusual.

Jesse Belle is itching to win a race, and couldn’t be doing any more, but has found a tough one to break through in. Like so many in this field, she’s more than capable though.

Abidewithme has put in great runs against the boys in the Group 1 handicaps, the Rupert Clarke and Toorak, so is right in the race. Amicus is already a Group 1 winner, and dual winner this prep, but has been beaten a long way in her last two. Forgive them, and there were excuses, and she’s a great value bet.

Fenway is another Group 1 winner that will jump at big odds, after flopping last start when apparently in-season. She won the Stocks Stakes two starts back, which is usually the measuring stick for mares races in the spring.

Miss Rose De Lago is a last start Group 3 winner where she right bolted in, and was coming off a good run against these sort of horses at the start before. Atlantis Dream hasn’t had a single thing go right this prep. Slightly Sweet went close at Caulfield, and shouldn’t be underestimated.

The Myer Classic is a race where a genuine case can be made for 14 of the 15 runners. Good luck to everyone, is all I can say on it!

Selections
1. Royal Descent
2. Stay With Me
3. Azkadellia
4. May’s Dream

Join me again tomorrow where we’ll have a look at each race on the Derby day card, along with selections and suggested bets.