Welcome punters, to a fantastic Derby day card, dripping with quality and complexity.
Almost all of these races are time-honoured, with a solid weight of history behind them, so we’ll run through my thoughts on each race, plus give a historical tip as well, based on results over the last 10 years.
Race 1 – Carbine Club Stakes – Group 3, 1600m, three years old, set weights with penalties
Bassett looks the one to beat, the only horse in the field to come through the Caulfield Guineas, where he ran well competing against the best of his age group. He was only second up into that, so can hardly be accused of being over-the-top after a long campaign.
The Gothic Stakes is always a key lead-up to this. Mahuta led all the way to win it, and Flemington can play leaderish on Derby day. Flying Light ran well in the same race. Gredington comes from a mighty run in the Stutt Stakes and is a genuine threat, while Patch Adams and He’s Our Rokkii must be respected through the same formline. Marky Mark provides the x-factor, over from New Zealand for the first time.
Selections
1. Bassett
2. Mahuta
3. Gredington
4. Flying Light
History says: Single figure odds, 56 kilograms or less, lead-up run in the Gothic Stakes: No.4 – Mahuta
Race 2 – Wakeful Stakes – Group 2, 2000m, three years old, fillies, set weights with penalties
The Ethereal Stakes at Caulfield a fortnight ago is the key lead-up race here, providing almost half the field, including six of the first seven across the line that day.
Dawnie Perfect won that race, simply too good and strong for them at 2000 metres, sweeping around the outside after settling worse than midfield. Ambience was solid in behind her, maybe a fraction weak at the trip late, but gets a two-kilogram weight swing for the 1.8 length defeat. Bannatyne was brave up front and will make it tough for them to get past her again.
My Popette was a dominant leader at the Valley last week, albeit assisted by the rails bias. Still, she’s a smart filly, and can win. We must be wary of Adelaide visitors over Cup week, and Beluga Blue is a value player here. Muzyka hit her straps in maiden class up in Sydney, which is a similar lead up that last year’s winner had.
Selections
1. Dawnie Perfect
2. Beluga Blue
3. My Poppette
4. Muzyka
History says: Minimum weight, top three last start, racing over 2000 metres for the first time: No.6 – Bengal Cat
Race 3 – Guvera Stakes – Group 3, 1400m, open handicap
There’s some value to be had in this event, with three Group 1 credentialed runners at double-figure odds. Four horses have run well at Group 1 level this campaign, and you could do worse than box all four up in a trifecta.
Disposition is the obvious favourite after two great seconds in the Rupert Clarke Stakes and Toorak Handicap. He’s found a very winnable race here. Charmed Harmony was a close-up fifth in the Rupert Clarke and meets Disposition better at the weights.
Ninth Legion has run well at his last two, including fourth in the Toorak, even though he doesn’t see out a mile. The 1400 metres is much more his trip, he’s enormous value. Messene was one of the runs of the race behind Winx in the Epsom, and we saw what she did to a Cox Plate field last week.
I can’t see anything outside of these four winning, but I’ve been wrong before.
Selections
1. Disposition
2. Ninth Legion
3. Charmed Harmony
4. Messene
History says: Carry 53-56 kilograms, double-figure odds, top-four finish last start: No.15 – San Diego
Race 4 – Coolmore Stud Stakes – Group 1, 1200m, three years old, set weights
The first Group 1 of the day and we get to lay eyes on a serious talent, Exosphere, looking to add his name to the glittering honour role of the Coolmore Stud Stakes.
Exosphere has beaten the likes of Counterattack, Japonisme and Sebring Sun up in Sydney already this campaign, but they’ll all run well. Ready for Victory and Dal Ceilo drop back from the Caulfield Guineas.
Keen Array and Mogador come from the Blue Sapphire Stakes at Caulfield and are both talented horses in form. Super One from Singapore is a trifecta hope if he brings his best.
But what we really want out of this race is for Exosphere to win in a manner that entices connections to take on Chautauqua next week in the Darley Classic.
Selections
1. Exosphere
2. Ready For Victory
3. Counterattack
4. Sebring Sun
History says: Short single-figure odds, top two last start, multiple wins this campaign: No.1 – Exosphere
Race 5 – Lexus Stakes – Group 3, 2500m, open quality
This is always a tough and open affair, as befitting the last chance saloon for those chasing a Melbourne Cup berth. It takes a good horse to win it too – they usually run very, very well if they back up in the Cup.
Making things trickier this time around is that the 13 runners are coming through 10 different lead-ups, with no more than two from any one race.
Group 1 form is always hard to ignore, so Havana Cooler and Chance to Dance from the Metrop up in Sydney have obvious claims. Excess Knowledge has been trying hard and might get his chance to win. Stablemate Bohemian Lily is so honest and in great form, she’s well over the odds.
Elhaame was brought out here to win the Melbourne Cup, so must be respected as a contender. Ruling Dynasty and High Midnight represent the Cummings stable, and would be fairytale results.
Selections
1. Elhaam
2. Excess Knowledge
3. Bohemian Lily
4. Havana Cooler
History says: Four- or five-year-old, top three last start, paying under $11: No.7 – Ruling Dynasty
Race 6 – Mackinnon Stakes – Group 1, 2000m, standard weight-for-age
The toughest Mackinnon Stakes in recent memory.
Fawkner, Happy Trails, Pornichet and Gailo Chop come from the Cox Plate, always a strong form reference, and each one has claims. Happy Trails is probably the pick of these, you can ignore his finishing position and margin in the Cox, he was never given a chance.
Stratum Star is the rising star among the group, but has a tricky barrier to contend with. Magic Hurricane has come a long way in a short time, but his last two runs have him as a legitimate contender. Magic Artist provides the x-factor from Germany.
The two alliteration mares back from the Caulfield Cup, Set Square and Rising Romance, are also capable of surprising at odds. Plenty will make a case for Contributer and Flamingo Star, but not me. They’re under the odds at the very least.
Selections
1. Happy Trails
2. Stratum Star
3. Magic Hurricane
4. Pornichet
History says: Cox Plate lead-up run, $6-$12, six-year-old or older: No.1 – Fawkner and No.2 – Happy Trails
Race 7 – Victoria Derby – Group 1, 2500m, three years old, set weights
Tarzino is the dominant favourite after his outstanding run against the bias at Moonee Valley last week. His was one of the best two runs of the day outside of Winx winning the Cox Plate. He gives every impression that he’ll eat up 2500 metres, and he should get his chance to prove himself the strongest stayer.
Lizard Island was excellent in both the Caulfield Guineas (beating Tarzino home) and Caulfield Classic, he’s got the class to figure, if not the stamina. Get the Picture was the notable run behind him last time out, and should get a lovely trail from a good gate with Oliver in the saddle.
Pay Up Bro caught many eyes behind Extra Choice in the Geelong Classic, but the winner was better for mine. Colonel Custer is from the same race and might be the best bolter. Kia Ora Koutou is a Perth visitor that’s hard to line-up, but is unbeaten, and obviously talented.
Selections
1. Tarzino
2. Lizard Island
3. Kia Ora Koutou
4. Extra Choice
History says: Top two in a Group race last start, no worse than fifth the start before: No.1 – Lizard Island
Race 8 – Myer Classic – Group 1, 1600m, standard weight-for-age, fillies and mares only
Similar to the Mackinnon, this could be the most open Myer Classic in memory, if the obvious doesn’t come to the fore.
The obvious in this case is the two favourites, battle-hardened mare Royal Descent and the three-year-old filly Stay With Me.
Royal Descent hasn’t raced against her own sex for a year and a half, and has taken on the best males in the land with a record of 16 starts for a win and 10 placings in that time. The mile is her best distance – despite not winning over it! – and if she hasn’t suffered unduly from her Caulfield Cup gut-buster, the only one that can stop her is the filly.
The three-year-old fillies look top notch this season, and Stay With Me beat them in the Thousand Guineas last start, and beat them well. Watch for her turn of foot with the light weight. Azkadellia is next best after a huge run last week, which had next-time winner written all over it, although finds herself in a tough race here.
Fourteen of the fifteen runners have legitimate claims, and it may all come down to the right run at the right time. Any of them can win if things go their way.
Selections
1. Royal Descent
2. Stay With Me
3. Azkadellia
4. May’s Dream
History says: four- or five-year-old, either less than $4 or more than $16, no wins last two: No.11 – Amicus
Race 9 – Tab.com.au Stakes – Group 2, 1200m, open handicap
A typically tough sprint race down the straight to finish the day, and there are few you could confidently put a line through.
Under The Louvre has been itching to win all campaign, but has been unable to get the job done. He gets another chance here, but isn’t suited by an inside barrier. Delectation isn’t the most reliable horse, but it’s hard to run much better behind Chautauqua than he did last time out up the straight in the Gilgai.
Knoydart was good there too, and while he hasn’t won in a while, this is his chance. Churchill Dancer is out of the same race, and it does look the right form.
Fontelina has won this race twice at double-figure odds, and might just be cherry ripe to do it again. Kaepernick is a bright talent, but this might just be beyond him. Eclair Choice and Bring Me The Made are also chances.
Selections
1. Churchill Dancer
2. Fontelina
3. Delectation
4. Knoydart
History says: Four- or five-year-old, top four last start, carrying 54.5 kilograms or less: No. 12 – Bring Me The Maid
Jim
Guest
Gee whiz andrew, you were so close to 3/3 at morphettville today - more sensational tipping! After following your tips yesterday, i had to tail your tips today! Great tipping at awesome odds - feel free to keep sharing ripping tips like those :)
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Another week, another shocking track dished up
bill
Guest
Hi cam Lizard islamd is good . But get the picture wasnt gar off him and with Oliver who killed me on 5 and half stars a few years back im leaning that way Great summary. Taking some notes down. Bit of thunder in port melbourne just now so hopefully a bit of sting out of the track.
Jim
Guest
Mate great tips at the valley - its usually a graveyard for me but i got on rocbolt @ 15s and also took it all up with anfirtronia. So absolutely stoked and free rolling it for today :) going to follow your coupke of radelaide tips for today too :)
Bondy
Guest
Will Exosphere get pocketed dive late and miss ? that would be the biggest boil over of the carnival . If it is leader'ish there tomorrow I'll be looking for My Poppette again . Disposition has to strike he's been weighted to win at his last two and hasn't come up trumps its now or never and back at Felmington and slightly weaker field than he's been contesting . Tarzino's a little thin for mine this race perplexes me .. Royal descent appears overs she's been rumbling with Kermadec and the like of late . Also Happy Trails e way all day . And I'm going around the Internationals in the Cup its Preferment or Criterion either one possibly by two lengths .. Nice read Cam ...
andrew
Guest
hoping some of the roarers have built a nice bank tomorrow at the valley with rocbolt being smashed from 21 into 5 and winning and anfirtriona saluting at 4.40. daily double paid $34.
george jay
Guest
Victoria Derby Day - 9 Group Races with good fields of equine talent - no wonder it is considered by many to be the best day in the Racing Calendar. I liked Lizard Island but in today's papers Hyland conceded that he was unsure if LI would stay a strong 2500m, and he suggested that every Derby runner was 'in the same boat'. With respect we have to disagree as Kia Ora Koutou boasts a pedigree of 2 Derby Winners (Blackfriars & Grosvenor) 1 Oaks Winner (Kensington Gardens) & 2 Melbourne Cup winners in Jeune & At Talaq. The only minus for Kia OK is she is not a big made horse like Exosphere where a Course like Flemington would be ideal. With the weight on the back of Stay with Me she is a nap to win the Myer Classic.Of the rest I think Tommy may have a double with Ruling Dynasty (James Cummings) & Ecuador (Gai Waterhouse) last run 2nd in the Epsom. Good Luck to all!
Cameron Rose
Expert
Yeah, you should never be afraid to back yourself at a bit of odds on this day.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Pedigree is one thing, speed is another. I'm sure Red Alto will run the 2500m, it will just be slower than others! Yeah, everyone seems to be on the same page with Tarzino. The one to beat, but not backable at that price. I'll be backing Lizard Island, who profiles beautifully for it on an each-way basis.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
Love the breeding of Kia Ora Koutou for the Derby, and I suspect they will run along so it will be a proper staying test. Seen plenty have their finishing speed dulled by the extra distance, so not necessarily keep to jump into one (like Tarzino) that has been hitting the line without winning. Also love the staying pedigree of Red Alto at the handy odds of 100/1. He will be grinding home, and isn't the worst chance in the race.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
Love, love, love Derby Day. I'll be steering clear of the favourites, especially in the bigger races. History says to expect the unexpected, and what seems obvious now may look different at the end of the day.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Yeah, RD is obviously a bit better on the soft, but still top of the class on the good. Won the Warwick Stakes earlier this prep on it, and as you say, so close in the Turnbull. The filly worries me, but RD is going to run well. Could be a case of after the race, we just say, well how easy was that??? I keep hearing about Etymology, it sounds like every Roarer is on him! Not for me, but now I'm beginning to wonder...
ryan
Roar Rookie
Thanks for the run down, Cam. Well done on getting through every race! The Waller-Bowman combo looks like it's got quite a few trading unders (including Flamingo Star, I admit). Lizard Island had a tough run out of the gate in the Caulfield Classic and rode on well. Don't like Etymology with MacDonald on board? Royal Descent never got let down in the CC, she's got plenty of gas left. I have doubts on her on firm ground, but that was somewhat dispelled from her run in the Turnbull. If Stay With Me wasn't in the race with 49kgs, I'd be all over the $6 as she's a class above the field. I'm just going to back them both and the quinella.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Great as usual Andrew. We agree on a few here. Bassett is probably my best of the day. Royal Descent if she's right is second best - I only got $6, but that's more than enough, and if we're wrong we're wrong. If she doesn't win, anything can. The more I think about the Derby I'm not sure how wide it is. In fact, I can make a good case that one of Tarzino or Lizard Island will win it. Agree that Tarzino is unders, as most people do, so not sure why he's that price in that case. The 1400m race is the best trifecta and first four race I've seen for a while, with some value to be had.
andrew
Guest
Firstly preface my comments by saying based on a dry track and invoking by no.1 rule of punting in that if there is rain during meeting, to halve all bets. That said, a few I like are equally adept on wet. 1 – bassett always been on the radar of most keen followers since his strong debut win and then good effort to press statement up in QLD. First up win in spring was even better and keen array has won twice since and is 2nd fave in G1, that affirms his quality for mine (even though he had a good drop that day). Again straight up to 1600m in guineas, and even moody admitted it wasn’t ideal. Ran same splits from 600-400 and 400-200 as press statement, but to surprise of no-one tired the last 200m, especially the last 75m or so, when those horses who never really went with press statement and are more staying types got past him. Bassett was atleast put in the race, ridden to have a shot, not just conservatively to ‘run on’ and his effort was top shelf. Two massive things in his favour is the extra fitness he gains and the drop back in class (combined with weight scale). he pings the gates really quick, but with a new natural leaders in this, confident he can be in the first 3 or 4 and I think a repeat of his last run would just about win, but I expect him to run better given not 2nd up from 1100m to 1600m, which means I rate him on top comfortably and one of the better bets for the day. Just cos kermadec won it last year for waller off a non-descript syd race, doesn’t mean montouk will do – unders for mine on the waller/bowman factor. 2 – incredibly tough and open race, so much so, I think the faves are unders and some roughies have a good hope. Im taking 10 runners (for varying %) in the early quad here. I have those competing this well below jamka, sacred eye and Pasadena girl. In what is a very weak wakeful. You can say the ‘class’ formline is the ethereal, but that was a weak race too, won by a horse getting beaten in maidens. In fact, several horses have won this race in recent years coming off rather non-descript form and/or at long odds and/or as maidens. A few times the class horse with the thous guin form has prevailed too, but none of them run here – bizzare to think you could have a wakeful stks with not one runner from thous guin lining up. this all gets to my point that don’t be sucked in thinking the ethereal form is some glowing beacon. For example, dawnie perfect got beat by ritzy in the ‘doc holiday’ maiden (princess aria ran 5th in the same maiden). Ritzy got beat by the older horses last time (a $100 shot) and goes around at $21. Ashlee maree beat ritzy fair and square last time – and looked the better stayer, ritzy prob a bit more sprint – and goes around at $61. I was obviously very keen my popette last time and she is ‘class’ horse with form best able to tie in with the thous guin horses and it puts here several lengths in front of the grey flash who can be easily lined up, so can understand her appeal. ive had a small ew bet on ashlee maree at 67/17 and bannatyne at 26/7 (was supposed to race back in field last time and lead) and will be taking 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13, 15 in the early quad in my wide leg. 3 – keen to play in this race and trusting the vic health cup/ Toorak formline as a reliable one. Disposition entitled to fave, doesn’t quite have a knockout blow, but very consistent horse. If you like him, you have to entertain charmed harmony who meets it 2kgs better from vic health cup where disposition sat 3rd rails and got a split when rich enuff tired whereas charmed harmony was 3 wide no cover and punched on strong. I don’t think there is massive pressure here, or atleast same pressure as vic health where strawberry boy and rich enuff ran along really strong. In fact, I reckon charmed harmony can cross them from his draw and when he leads and finds the lead and the rail he runs well. Like him off the 5 week break to a track/trip where he excels. Red excitement is the other I like coming off two trails and after a moderate 2yo career, stormed through the ratings last prep and that included a win here over tried and tired (who has run 2nd to charmed harmony over winter giving it 6kgs). two trials for this leading in, he draws perfectly to just end up 4th or 5th one off rail doing no work, and first up last prep he carried 61kgs and won beating burbero giving it 6.5kgs which is super form. Playing around these 3 in early quad and some wins, duets, quins. Reckon artlee is very well found in the market, more a $15 chance, trainer and jockey combo a risk , could be bailed away 4 pairs back from that draw needing luck, not sure its form is good enough anyway, would need a big peak. 4 – exosphere clear top pick. 5 – excess knowledge slowly building with improvement each run and was a good run last time. He was back with amralah when he took off and let him go, and amralah was basically in a race of his own, but excess knowledge had to navigate traffic from 600m to 400m when others dropped off and then was strong the last 200m. 3 week break seems a good scenario and each run is better than the run prior this prep. meets a few rivals from the amralah race and reckon he has them covered – and meets a few better at weights for beating them. Havana cooler brings the best last start form into the race making good ground along the inside in the metrop, ruling dynasty needs to keep improving (negative formline via junoob) but has the scope to do so, in a race where really, I don’t think there are too many winning chances. 6 – no firm view. 7 – no firm view. Tarzino desevered fave, but too short for me to unload on. Im backing him the place in some multi’s as the fave pays very well for a place in these big fields. A host of half chances, etymology being one of the better ones. For quad players, its either one out or you are taking 6 or 7. Not super keen to play here. 8 - $7 royal descent was too good pass up and I have hit her solid at this price, undoubtedly the class mare in this race, by a considerable margin, thus WFA suits her better than any others. There are some negatives being her last run, but im prepared to overlook a caul cup failure. Several winners of this race have won dropping back in distance too from cox plate runs such as lotteria and miss potential, but not many actually do it. Many a horse for Doncaster/Epsom drops back from 2000m to 16000m. of course, she is 2400m back to 2000m, but boss knew he was cooked and actually did the sensible thing basically easing her out of the race instead of flogging her into 9th, so I don’t subsribe to theory she will be flat off a tough run. Also trust waller (and a wealthy owner) wouldn’t run her, given how good she has been to them, if she wasn’t 100% (a small country trainer might, Robbie laing would, steve Theodore would, clarry conners would). I guess we just trust waller with blinkers first time, and interesting move for an older mare. The other perceived negative is her run of placings. Of course its all relative. None of these would do as well as she has in races like Doncaster, Epsom, queen eliz, georgre ryder, turnball, etc. the crème of mid-distance racing. In fact, many of them wouldn’t even get a start in the field in such races. I can hardly knock her for those defeats, and its not like she is horse who doesn’t try or you can see gets shy when she sees the winning post and likes to run with ‘herd’. I can make a strong case that she should be a clear $3.50 fave on class alone. And it’s a been a good race for the class mare, saddlecloth no.1 over the years too. she draws perfect in gate 5 with miss rose de lago the leader a few gates insider her in 2, but those in gate 3 and 4 with no speed, solicit and fenway come across from wider draws. I cant see how bowman doesn’t end up in anything but whatever spot he wants, most likely 4th or 5th one off the rail with cover. Outside here it’s a bit a raffle. She is clearly the best performed mare in the race and at level weights I cant not tip here (and don’t think I have ever tipped her before). Logic doesn’t always prevail, but when offered $7 for it to prevail, I shall invest. 9 – delectation when level weights with chatatqua last time and got beat 1 length. My case kind of rests there. But it seems like this is a real target race for him and he did run 2nd to brazen beau in the coolmore this track/trip 12 months ago. Im pretty confident that is a strong formline to carry into the race. He beat several of his rivals here last and was holding them on the line and meets them better at weights and goes in 3rd up here and im happy to be on him ahead of those he has competed again. Under the louvre can be lined up via Churchill dancer and that brings him in close, but I prefer the preparation of delectation who is set to peak, versus under the louvre whose grand final was 3rd up in the vic health cup and now is just holding his form (which is good). Best: bassett, royal descent, delectation Valley tonight: Race 6 : rocbolt Race 8 : anfitriona ADL 6: Alabama missile 7: double pockets 9: free the wind
Cameron Rose
Expert
The beauty of the racing game is that some of us will be right some weeks, but we'll all be wrong more than we're right. And we'll all keep fronting up with our opinions week after week, regardless of what's happened in the past! Love it!
kv joef
Roar Guru
lol ... spent the week cowering in a corner after being beaten-up by Scuba, Matty and you ... talk about cinderella and the 3 ugly sisters ... at least i know there is a prince out there ... bit worried about a coach made out of a pumpkin though ...
Cameron Rose
Expert
It's an unbelievable Myer. It's not just a throwaway line when I say all but one horse can win. Look at the prices of Solicit and Amicus!
Cameron Rose
Expert
Thanks KV, tried to fit as much in as a I could, while also keeping each race brief enough to not make the whole thing an arduous read. Yeah, Etymology has his supporters, and I certainly respect the opinion of those that have him up there, but I can't see him turning the tables on all of Tarzino, Lizard Island and through Pay Up Bro, the Geelong Classic form, which he come across in his last three runs. Big watch on Kia Ora Koutou. I just wish they'd come over a run earlier, like Plastered did, so we could line him up properly. This racing game is never fair though... :)
Razzar
Guest
Looks a tough day punters, a keen eye is nessasary to see how the track plays. A day of value betting is at its premium. The myer classic looks possibly a crazy race to bet in, but I'm a bit crazy, so a huntin' for value we go. Plenty of natural speed, no risk, plenty of back markers in very good form. One of them, Slightly Sweet, 4th up, she's in the lightly raced category, so potential for more improvement. I rate her 6/1 13$ fixed, as the Fonz would say " Eeeeeeeh!" Good luck Punters