The 2015 Melbourne Cup (3200m, Group 1, handicap) will be run for the 155th time on Tuesday at 3pm.
Horses trained in Australia, England, Japan and Ireland form the field of 24 runners and the great race is typically full of depth.
2015 MELBOURNE CUP LIVE UPDATES, RESULT
While there are many locally-trained gallopers capable of winning the race, Sertorius is the only Australian-bred runner in the 24. I have a positive outlook for the future of the Australian-bred stayer but it may be a few more years before we see them saturate a Melbourne Cup field.
1. Snow Sky (English trained, British bred)
Weight: 58kg
Barrier: 16
Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Odds: $41
For: Snow Sky, the Melbourne Cup top weight, enters the race on the back of his best season in Europe, where he won twice at Group 2 level in the Yorkshire Cup (about 2800m) and the Hardwicke Stakes (about 2400m).
Against: He was given a lead-up in the Caulfield Cup (2400m, Group 1, handicap), where he also carried 58kg, and was very one-paced in a fifth place finish. The European gallopers who perform best in Australia are those with good acceleration and Snow Sky appears to lack in this facet. Making his task harder is the statistic that Makybe Diva is the only horse to have carried top weight to victory in the Melbourne Cup in the last 50 years.
In a few words: Too much weight for a horse that may not be best suited by the race.
2. Criterion (Australian trained, New Zealand bred)
Weight: 57.5kg
Barrier: 4
Trainer: David Hayes and Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Michael Walker
Odds: $14
For: Criterion is arguably the third best horse in Australian racing behind Winx and Chautauqua at the moment, and his supporters will be hoping his class takes him to Melbourne Cup victory. At his best when the ground is soft, Criterion is a four-time Group 1 winner, including twice this year, both times at 2000m. He was an unlucky second in the Cox Plate (2040m, Group 1, weight-for-age), and that is great form for the Melbourne Cup.
Against: Although Criterion won the 2014 Australian Derby (Group 1, three-year-olds, set weights) on a heavy track at 2400m, he is best at 2000m because he has the perfect combination of sustained speed and stamina for that journey. Whether he has what it takes to win the Melbourne Cup at two miles with 57.5kg to carry is another question. But, I’m very excited that he has been given the chance to attain a level of greatness by winning here.
In a few words: Best horse in the field but concerned about the weight and distance.
3. Fame Game (Japanese trained, Japanese bred)
Weight: 57kg
Barrier: 12
Trainer: Yoshitada Munakata
Jockey: Zac Purton
Odds: $3.20
For: The Japanese raider Fame Game is the Melbourne Cup favourite. He will eat up the 3200m distance. He was an eye-catching second in the Tenno Sho – Spring (3200m, Group 1, weight-for-age) in Japan earlier this year. That is seriously strong form for the Melbourne Cup.
In the Caulfield Cup he charged through the ruck to snatch sixth at the death. It was a perfect Melbourne Cup trial, and the stewards agreed. Believing the run was used purely as Melbourne Cup lead-up, they grilled jockey Zac Purton about his tactics, questioning whether he showed enough intent to win the race. As a result of the steward’s inquiry, Purton has been ordered to ride Fame Game in the same manner as Caulfield – by saving ground.
That’s no negative, in fact, it’s the exact way Glen Boss rode Makybe Diva to her three Cups victories. I’d be expecting Fame Game to be improved by the extra distance, fitness and the bigger track.
Against: In a Melbourne Cup of considerable depth Fame Game is short odds. He was not the only horse to shine in the Caulfield Cup. In saying that the only real concern I have is related to the track conditions. Fame Game has never been tested on rain-affected ground before. I’d be willing to take him on if we got a soft track.
In a few words: The horse to beat.
4. Our Ivanhowe (Australian trained, German bred)
Weight: 56kg
Barrier: 22
Trainer: Lee and Anthony Freedman
Jockey: Ben Melham
Odds: $ 21
For: Our Ivanhowe, a Group 1 winner at 2400m in Germany before being transferred to Australia, was a good third in the Caulfield Cup after looking like the winner of the race at the 400m mark. There’s two ways to view his Caulfield run – he was outsprinted over 2400m by Mongolian Khan and Trip To Paris and will be better suited over two miles or he plugged in the straight under 56kgs, not wanting any more distance.
Because Our Ivanhowe has been aimed at this race all spring by five-time Melbourne Cup winning trainer Lee Freedman I’m prepared to say that he is ready to peak on Tuesday. Freedman has always believed that the 17 days between the Caulfield Cup and the first Tuesday of November are the most important in a Cup aspirant’s campaign. I’m happy to pass on the stable report that Our Ivanhowe has improved considerably off that Caulfield Cup run. A big plus is that he will get through a soft track if those conditions prevail.
Against: I thought that Trip To Paris was better than him at Caulfield so Our Ivanhowe will need to draw upon the improvement that Freedman speaks about to win the Cup.
In a few words: Definite winning chance at good odds.
5. Big Orange (English trained, British bred)
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 23
Trainer: Michael Bell
Jockey: Jamie Spencer
Odds: $51
For: On-pacer Big Orange comes into the Melbourne Cup off a strong European season where he won twice at Group 2 level. Most notably, he beat Melbourne Cup combatants Quest For More and Trip To Paris in a tough staying test over two miles in the Goodwood Cup.
Against: Big Orange is penalised heavily for that very narrow victory at Goodwood because he meets both horses 2kg worse at the weights here. What is also concerning is that he can’t handle the wet, so he needs a firm track on Tuesday. Only 1993 victor Vintage Crop has won the Melbourne Cup without a lead-up prior.
In a few words: There are too many negatives for Big Orange.
6. Hartnell (Australian trained, British bred)
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 17
Trainer: John O’Shea for Godolphin
Jockey: James McDonald
Odds: $31
For: As the BMW (2400m, Group 1, weight-for-age) winner earlier this year, Hartnell has the class to win the Melbourne Cup. He has turned in three solid if not spectacular performances in preparation for this race. Most recently, he was a decent fifth in the Cox Plate. He will benefit from the drop to handicap conditions here. As a winner over 3200m, Hartnell should stay the distance no problems.
Against: He was extremely disappointing when asked to lead all the way in the Sydney Cup (3200m, Group 1, handicap) as a short-priced favourite earlier this year. There is a school of thought that says Hartnell isn’t going as well as he was when he starred in the autumn. And it is worth noting that only Makybe Diva has performed the rare BMW-Melbourne Cup double, in the same calendar year.
Finally, I’ll add that while Hartnell beat home Saturday’s Mackinnon (2000m, Group 1, weight-for-age) winner Gailo Chop in the Cox Plate, as well as Preferment, he was flattered by racing closer to the faster inside section of the track in that race.
In a few words: Hartnell has a chance on Tuesday but there’s too many things against him for my liking.
7. Hokko Brave (Japanese trained, Japanese bred)
Weight: 55.5kg
Barrier: 20
Trainer: Yasutoshi Matsunaga
Jockey: Craig Williams
Odds: $31
For: The second of the two Japanese runners, Hokko Brave tuned up for his Melbourne Cup assignment with an even tenth-placed finish in the Caulfield Cup after having a wide run. His form in Japan is quite good, running third in the 2014 Tenno Sho – Spring, and sixth, a length or so behind Fame Game, in the 2015 version. He stays the distance no problems.
Against: Hokko Brave, an eight-year-old, has not won in over two years and perhaps the reason for that is a lack of brilliance in his racing. I note that jockey Craig Williams was not happy with his trackwork at Werribee in the week after the Caulfield Cup but he did report the horse to be sharper in his work since.
In a few words: His form is good enough but I just feel he isn’t the right horse for the Melbourne Cup.
8. Max Dynamite (Irish trained, French bred)
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 2
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Odds: $13
For: Max Dynamite profiles well for this Melbourne Cup as a horse with strong form who I believe is yet to reach his career peak. A big plus is that he will relish wet conditions if any rain arrives. After failing to measure up to Group-level racing in 2013 he was given a stint over hurdles last year.
In 2015, Max Dynamite has gone a new level. Most notably, he romped away to win the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup over 3300m in August on soft ground, smashing the Caulfield Cup runner-up Trip To Paris and Big Orange.
Against: He meets Trip To Paris two kilos worse for that meeting in the Lonsdale Cup, a penalty he will feel if the ground is not soft. Willie Mullins has successfully travelled the Simenon (fourth in the 2013 Melbourne Cup) to Australia before but – Red Cadeaux excepted – it is not easy to do extremely well in the Cup without a run in Australia prior.
In a few words: If it rains he could win. Don’t think there’s any value in the 12/1 quote.
9. Red Cadeaux (English trained, British bred)
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 8
Trainer: Ed Dunlop
Jockey: Gerald Mosse
Odds: $26
For: The biggest positive for Red Cadeaux is that he’s Red Cadeaux! The three-time Cup runner-up, the marvel, the Cup legend! Year after year, he’s there running the race of his life at Flemington. This year he even ventured to Sydney and ran another cracking second in the rich Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m, Group 1, weight-for-age) behind Criterion, whom he meets better at the weights by 2.5kg and at a more suitable distance. This horse is a swimmer. He’s never raced in a wet Melbourne Cup but we may be due one.
Against: He’s ten and he hasn’t won for 35 months.
In a few words: It’s hard to tip a ten-year-old in a Melbourne Cup but there’s no reason to think he won’t run well again.
10. Trip To Paris (English trained, Irish bred)
Weight: 55kg
Barrier: 14
Trainer: Ed Dunlop
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Odds: $8.50
For: Trip To Paris profiles perfectly for this Melbourne Cup. He’s progressive. He will stay the trip without a worry in the world as a Group 1 winner over 4000m in England. He turned in a great Caulfield Cup trial when he stormed up the rails to run a close second. He has the speed you need to win a Melbourne Cup. He is very well weighted with 55kg, meeting the likes of Big Orange and Max Dynamite better at the weights. He comes from the stable of Ed Dunlop, the trainer of Red Cadeaux and the man that travels horses better than anyone in the world.
Against: The only knock is that he doesn’t go on soft ground.
In a few words: Top winning chance on a good track.
11. Who Shot Thebarman (Australian trained, New Zealand bred)
Weight: 54.5kg
Barrier: 6
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Odds: $19
For: Who Shot Thebarman was a top third in this race last year and comes back a year later as a better horse with 0.5kg less to carry. He was a good seventh in the Caulfield Cup when he had to circle the field in the last 800m and he will be much better suited at Flemington. He was a great second in the Sydney Cup earlier in the year, once again affirming his status as a great 3200m horse. He goes in all ground.
Against: It’s hard to nail a negative down. It is very hard to win the Melbourne Cup after failing to win one previously. There are a few exceptions to the rule including Fiorente (second in 2012 and first in 2013) and weighted as well as he is, Who Shot Thebarman is capable of joining the list.
In a few words: A winning hope who should finish in the top eight.
12. Sky Hunter (English trained, British bred)
Weight: 54kg
Barrier: 7
Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor for Godolphin
Jockey: William Buick
Odds: $41
For: Sky Hunter enters Tuesday’s race as a progressive stayer for Godolphin as they go in search of that elusive Melbourne Cup title. He’s only been seen twice this year but has acquitted himself well each time. He won a Group 2 (2400m, weight-for-age) in Dubai in March strongly before preparing for his Australian visit with a solid second in against an above-average Group 3 line-up over 2200m when he carried 2.5kg more than any of his well-credentialled rivals.
He is effective in all ground and he is well weighted with 54kg. Many people will point to the fact that Godolphin have never won a Cup despite their many and varied attempts as a negative but they have taken a number of placings in the race with unknown commodities like Sky Hunter in the past.
Against: He’s never been past 2400m before but there’s nothing to say he won’t stay. He’s another that is trying to defy the weight of history by winning the Cup without a prior lead-up in Australia.
In a few words: I quite like him at 40/1. A winning chance if things fall into place.
13. The Offer (Australian trained, Irish bred)
Weight: 54kg
Barrier: 13
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Odds: $35
For: Off the back of a dominant victory in the Sydney Cup, The Offer was the early favourite for last year’s Melbourne Cup. Unfortunately, after a Caulfield Cup failure, the campaign was aborted.
A reasonable spring this time around really took off with a strong victory in last Wednesday’s Bendigo Cup (2400m, Group 3, handicap). He benefits from avoiding a weight penalty after winning that race (quite strange considering some of the penalties handed out this spring by Greg Carpenter) and the drop down in weight from 59kg to 54kg is significant. He runs a strong 3200m, will appreciate the big Flemington track and is a superior animal on rain-affected going.
Against: Even as a Group 1 winner by four lengths, perhaps the slight concern is whether he is good enough to win a modern-day Melbourne Cup – they tend to be a lot stronger than the Cups of 15-30 years ago. I’m prepared to side with him, especially if the track is wet.
In a few words: He’s a good chance at big odds.
14. Grand Marshal (Australian trained, British bred)
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 15
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Jim Cassidy
Odds: $35
For: On Melbourne Cup Day last year Grand Marshal won by a nose the 2800m restricted-grade handicap. Then in April he caused a big upset when he ran down Who Shot Thebarman in the last stride to win what was the strongest Sydney Cup in at least 20 years. He is a definitely a stayer!
This spring, he’s gone to another level. He was competitive in a strong Hill (2000, Group 2, weight-for-age) on route to a very good 11th in the Caulfield Cup when he ran out of room at a vital stage, costing him fifth or sixth place. Grand Marshal is a stayer on the rise, and in wet ground, like so many of his Melbourne Cup opponents, several lengths better than on dry footing.
Against: Many will question whether Grand Marshal, a horse who was merely your no frills Saturday handicapper 12 months ago, is good enough to win a Melbourne Cup.
In a few words: He’s definitely good enough and a major player with considerable rain.
15. Preferment (Australian trained, New Zealand bred)
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 11
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Odds: $11
For: Preferment, the 2014 Victoria Derby (2500m, Group 1, three-year-olds, set weights) winner is back 12 months later hoping to emulate the feats of Phar Lap and Efficient as the only two horses to have completed the Derby-Cup double in consecutive seasons in the last 85 years. Preferment clearly has a liking to Flemington where he also won the Turnbull (2000m, Group 1, set weights and penalties) last month with a sustained finishing spurt. He meets Hartnell and Who Shot Thebarman 1kg better for beating them easily.
On paper, a 12.7-length thumping in the Cox Plate reads terribly, but as has been well documented the track prejudiced those racing wide on the bend and Preferment was one of those. Pleasingly he was closely quickly on Gailo Chop at the end and as the Mackinnon field learnt on Saturday, that’s no mean feat.
Preferment profiles similarly to Efficient, who won the race in 2007. Both Derby winners, four years old, coming off quiet runs in the Cox Plate and Flemington horses. Efficient was definitely more brilliant but a tad less consistent than Preferment.
Preferment goes to 3200m for the first time but he’s always looked like a real stayer to me.
Against: Preferment didn’t fire in the Australian Derby in April when the track was too soft. Expected to figure prominently, he wasn’t even able to get the bit between his teeth. He’s not a duffer in the wet because he won the Hill Stakes on a soft track last month. So, only if it is extremely wet (very unlikely according to the forecast), I’d be concerned.
In a few words: The X-Factor.
16. Quest For More (English trained, Irish bred)
Weight: 53.5kg
Barrier: 21
Trainer: Roger Charlton
Jockey: Damian Lane
Odds: $101
For: Quest For More profiles perfectly for the Melbourne Cup. He is a young and progressive stayer that has his best performances laying ahead. His form ties in well with Trip To Paris, whom he finished alongside at Goodwood, yet meets considerably better at the weights.
Against: After being balloted out of the Caulfield Cup, Quest For More ran 16th in the Geelong Cup when he got trapped wide on the track and endured a tough run. It would take an amazing reversal of form to see him win on Tuesday. Horses do not tend to follow a race where they drop out after racing near the lead with a Group 1 victory, let alone in the Melbourne Cup. The campaign went to ashes at Geelong.
In a few words: Can’t have him.
17. Almoonqith (Australian trained, American bred)
Weight: 53kg
Barrier: 10
Trainer: David Hayes and Tom Dabernig
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Odds: $15
For: Some judges I respect highly have Almoonqith, the runaway Geelong Cup winner, ranked highly in their Melbourne Cup numbers. That makes me nervous. Earlier in the year, before being imported to Australia, he was an impressive winner over 2800m in Dubai at Group 3 level. He has a turn of speed that will win plenty of races in Australia.
Against: The two concerns I have are his ability to stay 3200m and a tendency to waste valuable energy by pulling for more reign when the pace slackens in a race. Following the big Dubai victory, Almoonqith loomed to figure in the finish of the Dubai Gold Cup (3200m, Group 2) but petered on his run about 300m from home. A slow pace would ordinarily help a horse suspect at two miles stay the trip but because Almoonqith that doesn’t settle as well as most stayers that will probably fire him up.
In a few words: I respect the hype but I’m against him.
18. Kingfisher (Irish trained, Irish bred)
Weight: 53kg
Barrier: 9
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Colm O’Donoghue
Odds: $41
For: A patchy performance reel is highlighted by a second in the 2014 Irish Derby (about 2400m, Group 1, three-year-olds, set weights) and a close and unlucky second to Trip To Paris in the Ascot Gold Cup (about 4000m, Group 1, weight-for-age). He meets Trip To Paris 2kg better for the 1.3-length defeat.
Against: Kingfisher is probably better suited in easier races than the Melbourne Cup. I know he was second in an Irish Derby but it wasn’t the strongest renewal and he only beat three horses home. His most consistent form is at Listed level (the fourth tier of racing) where he usually wins.
Kingfisher comes into the Cup off a 43-length hiding in the Irish St Leger (about 2800m, Group 1) which was preceded by 16-length drubbing in that race’s main lead-up.
In a few words: He may be 40/1 but there’s plenty others at big odds that I have above him
19. Prince Of Penzance (Australian trained, New Zealand bred)
Weight: 53kg
Barrier: 1
Trainer: Darren Weir
Jockey: Michelle Payne
Odds: $71
For: What a thrill for the owners of Prince of Penzance who have followed their horse all the way from a Stawell maiden to the Melbourne Cup. He enters this race off a good second, aided by enormous rail bias, in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m, Group 2, handicap). He meets his vanquisher, The United States, 0.5kg better at the weights. He won a weak Queens Cup (2500m, Group 3, handicap) at the last Melbourne Cup Carnival.
Against: Put simply, he’s not good enough to win a Melbourne Cup but he is honest enough to run a good race. The big concern I have is the distance. He’s never taken me as a two miler.
In a few words: He’s not a winning chance but he should be congratulated for making the field.
20. Bondi Beach (Irish trained, Irish bred)
Weight: 52.5kg
Barrier: 18
Trainer: Aidan O’Brien
Jockey: Brett Prebble
Odds: $26
For: Bondi Beach, the horse with the standout name in the Melbourne Cup, comes to Australia as a highly talented, highly progressive galloper. In preparation for the Cup, Bondi Beach was second in both Great Voltigeur (about 2400m, Group 2, three-year-olds, set weights) and the English St Leger (about 2900m, Group 1, three-year-olds, set weights). These are two of the top three-year-old races in Europe in each season. He handles all ground.
Against: What is interesting about Bondi Beach is that as a European three-year-old he is considered a four-year-old by Southern Hemisphere time. Essentially, he is six months older than an Australian three-year-old.
Using the standard weight-for-age scale, if he assessed as a Southern Hemisphere May three-year-old (May because May is six months later than November, when the Cup is run), the 52.5kg he is being asked to carry is 2.5kg under weight-for-age.
If he was an older horse that compares to being asked to carry 57kg in this Melbourne Cup. Only three horses have carried 57kg or more to Melbourne Cup victory since the metric system was employed for the first time in Australian racing in 1972.
In recent times, two European three-year-olds have run in the Melbourne Cup. Mahler, who was fifth in the 2007 Great Voltigeur and second in the 2007 English St Leger, carried two kilos less (50.5kg) than Bondi Beach into third in the 2007 Melbourne Cup as a 9/1 chance. Tres Bleu (51kg), who brought in French form, was 22nd at 25/1 in the 2013 Melbourne Cup.
In a few words: You could argue that Bondi Beach has been weighted out of the Cup. He’ll need to be super special to win it.
21. Sertorius (Australian trained, Australian bred)
Weight: 52.5kg
Barrier: 5
Trainer: Jamie Edwards
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Odds: $201
For: I jumped on the Sertorius bandwagon after he won a Moonee Valley 0-78 handicap in September 2012. He won five races in the next 14 months and I backed him each time. To see him run in a Melbourne Cup will be a great thrill.
Against: Unfortunately, Sertorius’ best form has deserted him this spring and he has no chance of winning. He is the rank outsider of the whole field.
In a few words: He’s another horse that should be celebrated for the achievement of making it into the race.
22. The United States (Australian trained, Irish bred)
Weight: 52.5kg
Barrier: 3
Trainer: Robert Hickmott
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Odds: $20
For: The United States enters the Melbourne Cup in top form. As a horse racing out of its skin, he demands respect. Partnered by Hugh Bowman, he brought Moonee Valley to its feet when he picked off his opponents one-by-one on the way to an exciting victory in the Gold Cup.
I remember reading that the Moonee Valley Gold Cup was to be The United States’ last run of his campaign. But he had improved so much that this plan was aborted and the ever-conservative Team Williams decided to throw caution to the wind and press on to the Melbourne Cup. That’s a big push in the horse’s favour.
Against: He’s rising significantly in grade and to a distance he’s never seen before. It will take a special performance to win the Melbourne Cup considering how far back The United States has had to come from to get to the starter on Tuesday.
In a few words: It’s a big ask for a special talent. An outside winning chance.
23. Excess Knowledge (Australian trained, British bred)
Weight: 51kg
Barrier: 24
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Odds: $26
For: Excess Knowledge is superbly treated at the handicap with 51kg. He has been building beautifully through the spring to land in the Melbourne Cup off a massive, albeit narrow, win in the Lexus (2500m, Group 3, handicap). There he raced wide on the track on a day where it was a significant disadvantage to do so, and survived a line-ball protest to hold the race and his place in the Cup.
I know Gai Waterhouse has no trouble getting excited but you just get the feeling she was so happy to have got the photo decision her way on Saturday because she believes Excess Knowledge is a winning chance in the Cup.
Excess Knowledge has always shown Group 1 potential and he drops 5.5kg to carry the bottom weight here. He is peaking at the right time.
Against: Is he good enough to win the Cup? That’s the big question. I’m prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt.
In a few words: Good chance at big odds.
24. Gust Of Wind (Australian trained, New Zealand bred)
Weight: 51kg
Barrier: 19
Trainer: John Sargent
Jockey: Chad Schofield
Odds: $26
For: Gust Of Wind, the Australian Oaks (2400m, Group 1, three-year-old fillies, set weights) winner from the autumn, has been building towards the Melbourne Cup all spring.
She was fourth in the Caulfield Cup after racing closer to the speed than usual and lacked a tad of her powerful spurt in the straight. I’m prepared to give her the benefit of the doubt and say she will run out the 3200m, although I’m not convinced.
If she can settle in the middle of the field and produce her big finishing spurt in the straight, she’s a big chance.
Against: But, off her ok Caulfield Cup trial, I suspect it’s a big ask for the four-year-old mare. It’s been 14 years since Ethereal, the last four-year-old mare to salute in the great race, won the Cup.
In a few words: She’s capable but I’m not certain she has shaped herself as the Cup winner this spring.
Tips
1. Trip To Paris
2. Preferment
3. Fame Game
4. Our Ivanhowe
The best roughies: Red Cadeaux, Sky Hunter, The Offer, Grand Marshal and Excess Knowledge.
Aransan
Guest
Well, I hope we are not all thinking through our pockets. Despite striking out how terrific it was to see a female jockey win the Cup for the first time and the delight of her Down's Syndrome brother. Picking barrier 1 was obviously important but that was clearly a very good ride and good on her for remarking that there were some who wanted her removed as the jockey.
Republican
Guest
Not an Ozzie horse in coo ee. In this respect the cup is no longer synonymous with Melbourne or Australia sadly. Perhaps we could rebrand it as the Kiwi Cup because that is the closest we have to home grown g g's.
Norton Bit
Guest
Who beat Red Cadeaux home last year Fiddlesticks ? Protectionist?...... Think your safe.
DrGeorge
Roar Rookie
Justin we both agree on the winner - good luck for tomorrow!!
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
Since 1993, 60 international horses have tried to win the Melbourne Cup without a lead in race and all have failed. That's zero from 60...
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Love your work andrew-good luck mate-cheers.
Simon
Guest
I'd like to agree with you, but the stats tell a different story. The % success rate in the Melbourne Cup for first-up imports is appalling. Melb Cup imports first-up - 1 win from 86 runners. Melb Cup imports second-up - 5 wins from 20 runners. Vintage Crop won first up in the Melbourne Cup in 1993, but Greg Carpenter has admitted that the horse beat the handicapper that year and would be weighted closer to 58kgs using today's scale. Plus he was a wet-weather marvel.
Jim
Guest
I have liked Preferment for a while in this one, and will be taking him as my major e/w bet tomorrow. Otherwise, there is a host of chances that could win, and I think in an ideal world Fame Game will win, there are so many variables in play in the Melbourne Cup that means I wouldn't go near those odds. Going to pick 7 or 8 out for a boxed tri/first 4's at a relatively small percentage. Thinking Preferment, Fame Game, Who Shot the Barman/Red Cadeaux (As two likely to run on well in my book), and a few others. Tough to pick as there aren't many that can be ruled our straight away.
Jim
Guest
No problem Andrew, thought it was worth a question after your awesome tipping over the weekend (which as a result of, I am free-rolling for my bets for tomorrow!) :)
Fiddlesticks
Guest
As usual red cadeux will cost me money
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Looking away from the Cup, I think you can start the day off on the right note thanks to Missrock. She's the pick of the two year olds I've seen from Melbourne and should bolt home
Aransan
Guest
Thanks for that link to the Ascot Gold Cup, the race is well worth watching.
andrew
Guest
pretty ordinary meeting in adl jim. nothing for me there tomorrow. apologies for posting my preview twice. doing my oaks day form now though.
Jim
Guest
Great preview there Andrew as always! Any decent tips for elsewhere on Cup day - given your superb tips at MV and Morphettville on the weekend?
Razzar
Guest
R4 Orient drops weight after good run at geelong. Drawn for good sit. 20s will b everywhere.
Aransan
Guest
I would like to add that the Aidan O'Brien trained Adelaide was considered to be badly weighted in last year's Cox Plate. I don't think the weight will worry Bondi Beach at 2.5kg under w.f.a.
Aransan
Guest
Trip to Paris has won on English Good 4 tracks and also won the Chester Cup on a Soft 7 so I don't think the track is likely to count against him. The victory of Excess Knowledge on Saturday was better than it looked. The Japanese horses are not used to racing on soft ground.
Nathan Absalom
Roar Guru
You beat me to it Andrew, I sent an article this morning with a preview on some of the other lead-ups. It's actually a really good card, it's been a good days racing for quite a few years now and there's plenty of value.I generally try to resist the temptation to spend too much time on the Cup form and instead focus on the rest of the card, usually with good results.
andrew
Guest
Form is done on basis of a fair and even track, which is the only can you do form. Very dangerous to do form on assumption of bias. Accept you need adjust ‘on the run’ if its clear one emerges, but you cant underpin analysis via an unproven assumption, and to do so is a flawed approach to an analysis of any ilk be it racing or any other decision making scenario requiring subjective consideration. Cup day is always a treacherous day and after building a good lead on derby day mostly thanks to the $31 winner in the last in ADL I find myself 5 goals up at quarter time. As such, I will be putting a spare man in defence for the 2nd quarter and taking a ross lyon approach to things, and hoping to go into the room as half time with a similar lead and with any luck snag a few cheap ones on the rebound. Im sworn to not taking any quaddies tomorrow, as I know I will just be making a donation to the pool, but the moment of truth for the mental strength to follow through is 10mins before the first leg of the early and main quad. We will see how I go. 2 – inishowen is a talented but erratic mare who has cost herself more wins because of her race manners, so she is always a risk, but do like the strong riding of newitt to assist here. Both runs this prep have been very, very good in unsuitable and stronger races. Both her runs last summer at Flem were very good at around this distance range and in BM84 grade (top rater in this is 88). Happy to take the punt at $7 or so on an ew basis as I think the toppy (won this race last year) form is going backwards not progressing this prep, and the 2 is very well found for a backmarker drawn an inside gate in what shapes as a tactical race and possibly looking for longer. 3 – incredibly tough race, but still only ranks as my 3rd toughest for the day. Renew, de little engine come through the better races and drop down a rung in class. Renew just beat in this race last year. De little engine strong winner here this distance range over winter and last summer. Pop’n’scotch has to be respected giving zanteca 3.5kgs and going under half a length. Of course, this mentioned trio have drawn gates 18, 19 and 20. Small bet only this race. Thinking a duet with these 3 or a running dbl via inishowen or similar. 4 – reasonably keen (as you can be on cup day) that durendal will give a great sight. His 1400m stats are a bit mis-leading, I think he is actually looking for 1400m, now, even though his wins are at 1200m. draws for a perfect run and will camp in the first 4 or 5 and he was really strong the last 100m and through the line with his last start 2nd up win over 1200m. has a bit of speed drawn his inside which means he can stay in the one-off running line and be given clear air. Looks a nice target race for him and ellerton/Zahra team usually get a winner or two over cup week through good placement. 5 – invincible heart is a fast horse, but not many other tricks. Thus, the drop back to 1000m is a big advantage for her. Led them up in a swoopers race at caul in what was a stronger race than this and was right there until the 100m when paddled. Won at caul prior over 1200m in weaker grade just last lasting from fast finishing silent sedition who ran well twice after that. As is always the case, I don’t mind the on-pacers in the 1000m races down the straight. One easy sectional at the 800m, and they can be very hard to run down, and many of these seem to like to take a sit. Divine mr artie goes in early quad as he ran very fast time scoring last time. 6 - 2nd toughest race for the day. Raggle varr did win in very quick time on debut and looked smart. Respect denpurr on basis of just about any runner snowden brings to melb runs well. Find the jockey selections for the two mick price runners rather interesting/confusion. Good luck. I’ll be having a $10 bet on something that strikes me as overs once the market gets to 110% 5 mins before they jump. 7 – happy to back fame game. Been to this distance range (3200m/3400m) four times, for two wins, and a 2nd and 6th in the G1 tenno sho. His tenno sho 2nd in may was a phenomenal run, powering home to just miss. Its probably saved him atleast 1.5kgs for running 2nd than if he Form is done on basis of a fair and even track, which is the only can you do form. Very dangerous to do form on assumption of bias. Accept you need adjust ‘on the run’ if its clear one emerges, but you cant underpin analysis via an unproven assumption, and to do so is a flawed approach to an analysis of any ilk be it racing or any other decision making scenario requiring subjective consideration. Cup day is always a treacherous day and after building a good lead on derby day mostly thanks to the $31 winner in the last in ADL I find myself 5 goals up at quarter time. As such, I will be putting a spare man in defence for the 2nd quarter and taking a ross lyon approach to things, and hoping to go into the room as half time with a similar lead and with any luck snag a few cheap ones on the rebound. Im sworn to not taking any quaddies tomorrow, as I know I will just be making a donation to the pool, but the moment of truth for the mental strength to follow through is 10mins before the first leg of the early and main quad. We will see how I go. 2 – inishowen is a talented but erratic mare who has cost herself more wins because of her race manners, so she is always a risk, but do like the strong riding of newitt to assist here. Both runs this prep have been very, very good in unsuitable and stronger races. Both her runs last summer at Flem were very good at around this distance range and in BM84 grade (top rater in this is 88). Happy to take the punt at $7 or so on an ew basis as I think the toppy (won this race last year) form is going backwards not progressing this prep, and the 2 is very well found for a backmarker drawn an inside gate in what shapes as a tactical race and possibly looking for longer. 3 – incredibly tough race, but still only ranks as my 3rd toughest for the day. Renew, de little engine come through the better races and drop down a rung in class. Renew just beat in this race last year. De little engine strong winner here this distance range over winter and last summer. Pop’n’scotch has to be respected giving zanteca 3.5kgs and going under half a length. Of course, this mentioned trio have drawn gates 18, 19 and 20. Small bet only this race. Thinking a duet with these 3 or a running dbl via inishowen or similar. 4 – reasonably keen (as you can be on cup day) that durendal will give a great sight. His 1400m stats are a bit mis-leading, I think he is actually looking for 1400m, now, even though his wins are at 1200m. draws for a perfect run and will camp in the first 4 or 5 and he was really strong the last 100m and through the line with his last start 2nd up win over 1200m. has a bit of speed drawn his inside which means he can stay in the one-off running line and be given clear air. Looks a nice target race for him and ellerton/Zahra team usually get a winner or two over cup week through good placement. 5 – invincible heart is a fast horse, but not many other tricks. Thus, the drop back to 1000m is a big advantage for her. Led them up in a swoopers race at caul in what was a stronger race than this and was right there until the 100m when paddled. Won at caul prior over 1200m in weaker grade just last lasting from fast finishing silent sedition who ran well twice after that. As is always the case, I don’t mind the on-pacers in the 1000m races down the straight. One easy sectional at the 800m, and they can be very hard to run down, and many of these seem to like to take a sit. Divine mr artie goes in early quad as he ran very fast time scoring last time. 6 - 2nd toughest race for the day. Raggle varr did win in very quick time on debut and looked smart. Respect denpurr on basis of just about any runner snowden brings to melb runs well. Find the jockey selections for the two mick price runners rather interesting/confusion. Good luck. I’ll be having a $10 bet on something that strikes me as overs once the market gets to 110% 5 mins before they jump. 7 – happy to back fame game. Been to this distance range (3200m/3400m) four times, for two wins, and a 2nd and 6th in the G1 tenno sho. His tenno sho 2nd in may was a phenomenal run, powering home to just miss. Its probably saved him atleast 1.5kgs for running 2nd than if he won. Much said about his caul cup run, and its pretty obvious what the plan was, and whilst the racing auothiries can equire, if he was mine – id adopt the same strategy. Just needs reasonably dry ground, a fair track and even luck in running – none of this trio is a given, so I suppose about $4 is the right price in a field of 24…but I’d be shocked if you don’t get $5 on the day with bookies competing with the tote. I will back him each way, cos he will pay atleast $2.20 a place in the big field. outside of him respect for bondi beach as when aiden Obrien and llyod Williams combine, I cant think of a better combo and this horse has a new peak still to reach and a win over order of st George is a top formline and in my view, the best international formline, esp when you factor in his light weight, and the controversial protest last start in the st ledger he showed he could stay. 8 – this is the toughest race of the day. Often when you get races with highly exposed form, you can pick through them all, but that doesn’t help me much here. Do think the fave he or she is well unders at $4. It’s a $7 the field job for mine. forced into a selection, I will jacquinot bay who ran well in Toorak, drops in grade and goes well at flem, from scream machine who ran well in Seymour cup which is a strong form ref, and malice for 3rd off a similar formline with turn me loose. I might have 5 or 6 in a daily dbl into waiwail (adding in best case, tall ship, hopfgarden) 9 – all about the track here. If the outside rail is the spot to be, as it can often end up being as the week wares on then griante has finally found a race she can win after being competitive but ultimately outclassed at G1 level. Seems very well graded only 2kgs over the limit. Her last two goes this grade were a 2nd to politeness beaten a head at level weights and a 3rd to fell swoop giving it 4kgs. if the inside is still hot, then villopoto will give a great sight, always been a smart horse, but putting it together this prep with soft win first up under big weight and gave a huge sight at caul last time similar grade and fastnrocking since run well. 10 – logic says waiwail should win this given her 1400m form, which includes a win here in similar class (did get a gun run that day), no luck first up, just beaten by politeness 2nd up giving it 1kgs at caul (which cost me dearly as I was on) and now draws a plum gate to sit in a controlling spot and should peak here 3rd up. that form lines up positively over most of these who can be lined up via numerous horses who ran in the myer in recent runs. Best (or should I say ‘better’ bets): inishowen, durendal, invincible heart (these can all be backed each way), griante (pending pattern), waiwail, fame game. won. Much said about his caul cup run, and its pretty obvious what the plan was, and whilst the racing auothiries can equire, if he was mine – id adopt the same strategy. Just needs reasonably dry ground, a fair track and even luck in running – none of this trio is a given, so I suppose about $4 is the right price in a field of 24…but I’d be shocked if you don’t get $5 on the day with bookies competing with the tote. I will back him each way, cos he will pay atleast $2.20 a place in the big field. outside of him respect for bondi beach as when aiden Obrien and llyod Williams combine, I cant think of a better combo and this horse has a new peak still to reach and a win over order of st George is a top formline and in my view, the best international formline, esp when you factor in his light weight, and the controversial protest last start in the st ledger he showed he could stay. 8 – this is the toughest race of the day. Often when you get races with highly exposed form, you can pick through them all, but that doesn’t help me much here. Do think the fave he or she is well unders at $4. It’s a $7 the field job for mine. forced into a selection, I will jacquinot bay who ran well in Toorak, drops in grade and goes well at flem, from scream machine who ran well in Seymour cup which is a strong form ref, and malice for 3rd off a similar formline with turn me loose. I might have 5 or 6 in a daily dbl into waiwail (adding in best case, tall ship, hopfgarden) 9 – all about the track here. If the outside rail is the spot to be, as it can often end up being as the week wares on then griante has finally found a race she can win after being competitive but ultimately outclassed at G1 level. Seems very well graded only 2kgs over the limit. Her last two goes this grade were a 2nd to politeness beaten a head at level weights and a 3rd to fell swoop giving it 4kgs. if the inside is still hot, then villopoto will give a great sight, always been a smart horse, but putting it together this prep with soft win first up under big weight and gave a huge sight at caul last time similar grade and fastnrocking since run well. 10 – logic says waiwail should win this given her 1400m form, which includes a win here in similar class (did get a gun run that day), no luck first up, just beaten by politeness 2nd up giving it 1kgs at caul (which cost me dearly as I was on) and now draws a plum gate to sit in a controlling spot and should peak here 3rd up. that form lines up positively over most of these who can be lined up via numerous horses who ran in the myer in recent runs. Best (or should I say ‘better’ bets): inishowen, durendal, invincible heart (these can all be backed each way), griante (pending pattern), waiwail, fame game.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
I don't buy into "need to have a run" We've had internationals win first start in the country on numerous occasions, including group ones and the Cox Plate. These stables travel horses all over the world and in all conditions. They know what they are doing