The 2015 Melbourne Cup winner Prince of Penzance won the race off a slow pace in a huge surprise that few will remember for winning money on, and many will remember for the story of jockey Michelle Payne, the first female to win the race.
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Pace of the race a huge factor
2015’s Official Time of 3 minutes 23.15 seconds (last 600m – 33.97 seconds) was close to six seconds behind the 2014 time.
2014’s Official Time of 3 minutes 17.71 seconds (last 600m – 35.08 seconds) was the second fastest Melbourne Cup since 1990, off a hot tempo.
The pace and tempo of the 2015 Melbourne Cup was slow, and initially, super slow. Big Orange lead, but at a jog and no pressure was put on mid-race.
That was very clearly seen when the field bunched up hugely around the turn, and horses were strung wide.
The slow pace meant it was more of a sit and sprint and less of a true staying test, which failed to suit many runners.
The track bias meant some couldn’t win
Ultimately, Prince of Penzance benefitted massively from a track bias, where horses closer to the inside were on firmer ground, and horses on the outside were on slow, soft ground, referred to as quicksand by jockeys.
The favourite Fame Game had his chance but was stuck out wide in the bog and had no hope of tackling the winning group on the inside of the track.
Think of trying to run through mud while your rivals run on an Olympic sprinting track. Fame Game finished 13th.
Shocking interference
At about the 300m mark, Frankie Dettori on Max Dynamites shifts out, pushing out Gust of Wind behind it which shifts and takes out a number of chances, almost skittling Hokko Brave, Grand Marshal, and Preferment, which in turns inconveniences a number of chances out wider including Kingfisher.
All of those horses had at least some chance – Preferment was flying from the back – but that ended their runs, and it’s probably a miracle no one was hurt.
Frankie Dettori plead guilty to the charges laid on him by stewards, was fined $20,000 and has been suspended globally for a month. A huge ban, and appropriate. Dettori noted his impeccable record and that he couldn’t see Gust of Wind behind him, but it was a major issue in the race. Would Gust of Wind run a place? Would Hokko Brave, Preferment, Kingfisher and the rest finished closer?
Injuries
Both Snow Sky and Red Cadeaux were pulled up out of the race. Red Cadeaux was clearly injured and we are all thinking of him as he undergoes surgery. Snow Sky was a real chance, in the right leading bunch and right part of the track, but was pulled up. Jockeys know when something has gone wrong on their horses and Snow Sky must’ve had something go wrong.
We’ll find out more.
Did the best horse win?
In a word, no.
Does it matter? Well, no. Handicap races are meant to equalise a field and Prince of Penzance carried a light 53kg to victory. Criterion, the third placed horse, lugged 57.5kg and should those weights have been reversed, we would very likely have seen a different result.
And that’s what makes the Melbourne Cup unusual, and special. Most top horse races are weight-for-age, where runners are given set weights based on their age and sex. Older, stronger horses carry more. Younger horses, and mares and fillies, carry less. That’s designed to give each horse weight based on age, rather than on ability.
Snow Sky was one of the classiest horses in the race, and with 58kgs on its back, ended up second last.
So the best horse didn’t win, but it was the best run of the race and made the most of all the conditions to win.
Many strong form analysts said this was one of the hardest Melbourne Cups to pick ever. We don’t know a single form expert or tipster who picked Prince of Penzance, which doesn’t imply they don’t know what they’re doing, but that the race was an unusual one.
But it’s a great story for local trainer Darren Weir and the first female jockey, Michelle Payne, to win. Lots of punters who did their money said they didn’t care and may have even wiped a tear from the eye!
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
I think after this episode you might find some of the leading English trainers when they take their best horse over for the cup that they will take over a pacemaker as well to ensure a true staying contest is provided. They are well known for doing this tactic in big races. Look at Frankel for example. Nearly all his races there was a stablemate to ensure the race was run at a specific tempo to suit him.
JOhn McCombe
Guest
Maybe not the best horse Tristan, but by far the best ride. 10/10 and should become a standard showing at Apprentice School.
Tim
Guest
Looking at sectional times, I think preferment was quite unlucky, ran a 10.99 split just before it got belted. Not saying it would of won, but would of finished a lot closer!
Jrod
Guest
surely we blame the track. big interference was almost guaranteed.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
It might have had more of a chance on the ground, to be fair, but the pace in the race just wasn't fast enough for him as a genuine stayer.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Agree with all your thoughts there Ethan.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
No, too far back
Bill
Guest
So if fame game had been ridden through the pack like it was supposed to it would hAve won? As opposed to going wide?
ethan
Guest
"So the best horse didn’t win, but it was the best run of the race and made the most of all the conditions to win." Perfect wrap on all counts mate. Dettorri had the chance to run the race Payne did, following Trip to Paris to the straight, but he missed it and she took it. You have to feel for all those rides that were wrecked by the interference, but it's a wonder to me that so many jockeys attempted to run round the field on the outside in the first place, knowing the ground was poor there and no one had made up ground there all day. Gust of wind ran a very smart race sneaking up the inside, although Our Ivanhoe also sneaking up the inside couldn't find a gap trying to get up the rails. I guess that's the risk. Snow Sky looked to get sandwiched by Criterion and Who Shot The Barman. The top down view shows it perfectly. They were behind Snow Sky, either side, with more pace and looking to run around it, aiming for the same gap. They both hit the gap at the same time which sandwiched Snow Sky and it pulled up. As Criterion had a nose in front of Barman, Barman was also checked pretty badly. But I don't think in that instance you can blame Criterion of any wrong doing, it was just unfortunate timing, unlike Max Dynamite, where Dettorri went wild looking for an out.