Given South Africa’s rules allowing players to represent the Springboks while making a living at overseas clubs, South African Super Rugby teams face a higher exodus of players than their Antipodean counterparts.
2016 doesn’t appear to be different, with a lot of players enjoying an ‘off season’ overseas while the majority of others participated in the Currie Cup.
This accounts for the large number of transfers, meaning a number of South African teams look like they’ll be slightly low on numbers, or be full of development players.
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The 2016 version of our beloved Super Rugby tournament is experiencing quite an overhaul in terms of format. Three new teams – the Kings (South Africa), Jaguares (Argentina) and Sunwolves (Japan) – have been introduced, while there is a new structure to the conferences.
The Australian and New Zealand conferences remain similar – they play different teams and don’t have the joy of facing up against every team within their conference twice, but it’s largely untouched as far as the conference system goes.
The South Africans, on the other hand, have been split into two conferences to accommodate the extra teams.
These pools – Africa 01 and Africa 02 – have four teams each. Africa 01 is home to the Bulls, Cheetahs, Stormers and Sunwolves, while Africa 02 contains the Jaguares, Sharks, Kings and Lions.
The competition lasts for 17 rounds, with every team getting two bye weeks. All teams will play six intra-conference matches, so for South African teams that means playing everyone within their conference twice (both home and away).
From there it gets a bit tricky (SANZAR have released a full explanation which can be found here), but the main points to take away are that the Bulls, Cheetahs, Stormers and Sunwolves miss out on playing New Zealand teams, and the Jaguares, Sharks, Kings and Lions won’t play the Australian teams in 2016.
You can see how important this is to factor in when looking at our potential match-ups and standings. The Stormers, with the advantage of not playing the might of the New Zealand teams, should be a shoe-in for the finals.
That debate could rage on for a while, so here’s the teams and a brief analysis:
Bulls
Place at the end of 2015 regular season: ninth
Projected finish in Africa 01 conference: second
Players in: Lizo Gqoboka (Eastern Province Kings), Nick de Jager (Saracens), Francois Brummer (Cheetahs), Luther Obi (Eastern Province Kings)
Players out: Andrew Beerwinkel (released), Morne Mellett (retired), Hencus van Wyk (Munakata Sanix Blues), Victor Matfield (Northampton Saints), Flip van der Merwe (Clermont), Jacques du Plessis (Montpellier), Wiaan Liebenberg (Montpellier), Nardus van der Walt (Griquas), Jacques Engelbrecht (released), Pierre Spies (Kintetsu Liners), Francois Hougaard (SA Sevens), Jacques-Louis Potgieter (Lyon), Ryan Nell (released), William Small-Smith (Cheetahs), Akona Ndungane (retired), Jurgen Visser (Eastern Province Kings)
Extended playing squad: Clyde Davids, Corniel Els, Irne Herbst, JT Jackson, Jason Jenkins, Jannes Kirsten, Dan Kriel, Kefentse Mahlo, Nqoba Mxoli, Freddy Ngoza, Le Roux Roets, Divan Rossouw Pierre Schoeman, Joshua Stander, Ruan Steenkamp, Jade Stighling, Dries Swanepoel, Entienne Swanepoel, Ivan van Zyl.
The Bulls, like most of the South African teams, are in a development stage. The side has a large training squad, despite a host of players who have been released.
Nonetheless the Bulls have retained the majority of last season’s starting team, and with Adriaan Strauss leading, they are a dangerous proposition.
Their biggest area of concern is the second row, where the losses of Victor Matfield and Flip van der Merwe have left them with inexperienced players who are a cut below the departed locks.
I’m eagerly awaiting to see what new coach Nollis Marais does with Jesse Kriel. The young superstar spent all of 2015 playing at fullback for the Bulls before becoming a side-stepping, skillful and powerful outside centre for the Springboks.
Being in the same conference as newcomers the Sunwolves and an uninspiring Cheetahs team should be enough to get the Bulls in the frame for a finals appearance, and this team is capable of causing headaches. For them it’ll be all about how often they can play at their best.
Potential XV for opening game
1. Trevor Nyakane
2. Adriaan Strauss
3. Marcel van der Merwe
4. Grant Hattingh
5. Nico Janse van Rensburg
6. Lappies Labuschagne
7. Deon Stegmann
8. Arno Botha
9. Rudy Paige
10. Handre Pollard
11. Bjorn Basson
12. Jan Serfontein
13. Jesse Kriel
14. JJ Engelbrecht
15. Travis Ismaiel
Cheetahs
Place at the end of 2015 regular season: 12th
Projected finish in Africa 01 conference: third
Players in: Aranos Coetzee (Brive), Neil Rautenbach (Stormers), Paul Schoeman (Eastern Province Kings), Sias Ebersohn (Force), Fred Zeilinga (Sharks), William Small-Smith (Bulls)
Players out: Dolph Botha (released), Caylib Oosthuizen (Eastern Province Kings), Coenie Oosthuizen (Sharks), Ewald van der Westhuizen (Griquas), Martin Bezuidenhout (released) Stephan Coetzee (released), Steven Sykes (Eastern Province Kings), Jonathan Aldendorf (Griquas), Heinrich Brussow (NTT Docomo Red Hurricanes), Carel Greeff (Eastern Province Kings), Jean Cook (Zebre), Renier Botha (released), Sarel Pretorius (Newport Gwent Dragons), Francois Brummer (Bulls), Willie du Plessis (Toulon), Joe Pietersen (Sharks), Elgar Watts (Eastern Province Kings), Johann Sadie (Agen), Danie Dames (released), Cornal Hendriks (Stormers), Willie le Roux (Sharks)
Extended playing/training squad: Justin Basson, Uzair Cassiem, Luan de Bruin, Maphutha Dolo, Jacques du Toit, Joseph Dweba, Joubert Engelbrecht, Reinhardt Erwee, Reniel Hugo, Tertius Kruger, Nico Lee, Hilton Lobberts, Steven Meiring, Zee Mkhabela, Teunis Nieuwoudt, JP Smith, Ruan van Rensburg and Dennis Visser
How long ago 2013 seems for Cheetahs fans. Sadly, this squad doesn’t much resemble the outfit that took Super Rugby by storm in 2013 on the way to a finals appearance that ended in a narrow loss to eventual runners-up the Brumbies.
The departed players list makes for painful reading. Both Caylib and Coenie Oosthuizen have left, leaving the front row notably bare. Throw in the absence of Heinrich Brussow, Jean Cook and Cornal Hendriks and you’re starting to get annoyed at so many players leaving.
The icing on the cake is that not only is the halves combinations getting a shake-up, but the seasoned veteran Joe Pietersen and attacking livewire Willie le Roux are both departing as well.
I know I’ve dwelled on plenty of negatives thus far, so I will say that the locks and backrow still look reasonably strong, and the Cheetahs have some quick talent out wide.
But they face an uphill battle this season; finishing 12th or better would be a good effort.
Perhaps new coach Franco Smith can instil a bit more cheer and faith into his men. My fingers are crossed for you, Cheetahs fans.
Potential XV for opening game
1. BG Uys
2. Torsten van Jaarsveld
3. Maks van Dyk
4. Lood de Jager
5. Francois Uys
6. Boom Prinsloo
7. Oupa Mohoje
8. Neill Jordaan
9. Shaun Venter
10. Fred Zeilinga
11. Rayno Benjamin
12. William Small-Smith
13. Francois Venter
14. Raymond Rhule
15. Clayton Blommetjies
Stormers
Place at the end of 2015 regular season: third
Projected finish in Africa 01 conference: first
Players in: JC Janse van Rensburg (Bayonne), JP Smith (Brumbies), Pieter-Steph du Toit (Sharks), Jano Vermaak (Toulouse), Cornal Hendriks (Cheetahs)
Players out: Steven Kitshoff (Bordeaux), Neil Rautenbach (Cheetahs), Ruan Botha (Sharks), Manuel Carizza (Racing 92), Michael Rhodes (Saracens), Duane Vermeulen (Toulon), Demetri Catrakilis (Montpellier), Jean de Villiers (Leicester Tigers), Patrick Howard (Northampton Saints)
Extended playing squad: Yet to be finalised.
One of the most consistent teams of recent years, the Stormers have yet to win a Super Rugby title, but have been ever-present during finals for some time.
This year looks to be their best chance to earn some silverware, with the new format supposedly making life a little easier for teams in the African group. Even without the conference advantage, I’d back the Stormers to out-perform their South African rivals.
All five imports are of starting quality and would be more than welcome in most squads. The return of ex-captain JC Janse van Rensburg, after his three year stint in France, will provide great experience up front, and the young and exciting pair of Pieter-Steph du Toit and Cornal Hendriks will prove very useful for the Stormers as they look to expand upon their own Test careers.
The downside for the Stormers is the loss of Duane Vermeulen and Jean de Villiers. Their on and off-field leadership qualities can’t be taught, and the Stormers will really miss their guidance.
In terms of positional issues, they have most bases covered, except for flyhalf, which is my area of concern. Kurt Coleman is handy but he doesn’t fill the void left by Demetri Catrakilis, whose accurate kicking and calm control of the backline will be missed.
The biggest headache so far has been the shuffle of coaches from Allister Coetzee to Eddie Jones – who set a record for shortest tenure as coach – and now onto Robbie Fleck as interim coach.
Fleck has been an assistant coach for years and was in control of the Western Province Under-21s team that only lost one match on their way to the title, so he has a great understanding of the talent on offer. What he can do to build on from last year will decide Fleck’s future.
Potential XV for opening game
1. Frans Malherbe
2. Scarra Ntubeni
3. Vincent Koch
4. Pieter-Steph du Toit
5. Eben Eztebeth
6. Schalk Burger
7. Siya Kolisi
8. Nizaam Carr
9. Nic Groom
10. Kurt Coleman
11. Dillyn Leyds
12. Damian de Allende
13. Juan de Jongh
14. Cornal Hendriks
15. Cheslin Kolbe
Sunwolves – new team!
Place at the end of 2015 regular season: N/A
Projected finish in Africa 01 conference: fourth
Squad
Props: Ziun Gu, Shohei Hirano, Keita Inagaki, Shinnosuke Kakinaga, Yoki Yamamoto, Masatataka Mikami
Hookers: Ryuhei Arita, Shota Horie, Takeshi Kizu
Locks: Tim Bond, Shinya Makabe, Liaki Moli, Hitoshi Ono
Backrow: Andrew Durutalo, Yoshiya Hosoda, Fa’atiga Lemalu, Tomas Leonardi, Tsuyoshi Murata, Ed Quirk
Scrumhalf: Atsushi Hiwasa, Daisuke Inoue, Yuki Yatomi
Flyhalf: Tusi Pisi, Harumichi Tatekawa
Centres: Derek Carpenter, Paea Mifi Poseti, Yu Tamura, Ryohei Yamanaka
Wings: Amanaki Lotoahea, John Stewart, Akihito Yamada
Fullbacks: Yasutaka Sasakura, Riaan Viljoen, Hajime Yamashita
Coach: Mark Hammett
Welcome to Super Rugby, Sunwolves! There’s been plenty of drama with deadlines not being met and unknown coaches, squads and team names, but those problems are out the window now.
All that remains is to get on the field and show the rest of the teams what Japanese rugby has to offer.
The Sunwolves’ underdog nature will surely help them pick up a few supporters outside of Japan, but the first year of the competition has always been rough for newcomers, so just notching a few wins will be an impressive feat.
Bolstered by 10 of the players that contributed to Japan’s best ever showing at a World Cup, the Sunwolves have the potential to turn heads. Unfortunately it’s players like Michael Leitch, Amanaki Mafi and Ayumu Goromaru who were most impressive at the World Cup, and none will feature for the Sunwolves just yet.
Devoted Super Rugby supporters might recognise players such as Shota Horie, Ed Quirk, Tusi Pisi and Riaan Viljoen – but it’s a team devoid of household names.
I hope they can claim a few scalps, but it’ll take everything in Mark Hammett’s coaching notebook to really rattle the competition.
It’s a bit too soon to claim the Sunwolves as title contenders, but they’ll entertain and display a never-say-die attitude.
Potential XV for opening game
1. Keita Inagaki
2. Shota Horie
3. Masataka Mikami
4. Shinya Makabe
5. Hitoshi Ono
6. Ed Quirk
7. Tomas Leonardi
8. Andrew Durutalo
9. Atsushi Hiwasa
10. Tusi Pisi
11. Hajime Yamashita
12. Yu Tamura
13. Derek Carpenter
14. Akihito Yamada
15. Riaan Viljoen
tubby
Guest
sad to see kitshoff leave, but he's still young so we should see him back and a shot at a boks place one day. Etsebeth will hopefully step up into the dominant role that vermuelen had. HE's always been strong and abrasive but I don't think he's realised his potential in that role yet. #10 is a huge concern. coleman is a fill in at best, and filling that void is as important as the coaching position. I also hope that with the strong pack they don't revert to the defensive game plans they had under Coetzee. there's more than enough speed in the backs to score more points than they do.
Harry Jones
Expert
I like the logical conclusion of this piece! Yes, I think we Stormer fans cannot avoid the dreaded favourite tag. We can try, using the shambolic coaching shuffle as an excuse, or Kurt Coleman as our shaky field general, but in reality, an all-Bok pack (Frans, Eben, PSDT, Burger, Carr, Kolisi, Koch is not a bad nucleus!) with lightning steppers in the backs should be enough to finish top of this little pool. I'd look for Coleman to improve when he has continuity, but wouldn't be surprised if Fleckie tries Leyds at 10, too (he played there at Bishops). de Allende needed a break anyway; so he'll come back just when needed. Still, derbies are always brutal; and this competition is now Derby on Steroids.
Rugby Fixation
Roar Guru
Wow, definitely doesn't make for easy reading. It's not an easy ground to win at by any standard, should be a good game though. Looking forward to Crusaders vs Chiefs, Stormers vs Bulls and Tahs vs Reds (as a Queenslander) just to get a gauge of where those teams stand. With 6 consecutive games in Round 1, it's the most keen I've been for a season in a long time.
Michael
Guest
Thanks! But despite some advantages, the Bulls will have a tough time beating the Stormers. They haven't won at Newlands since 2011. The Bulls have only won 3, lost 8 and drawn 1 at Newlands since the beginning of Super Rugby.
puff
Guest
Mitch, thoughts, this new format for SA teams could be a blessing or a nightmare for both coaches and administrators. Local gate receipts are normally higher when key OZ and NZ teams knock on their door, hence the viewing public may vote with their feet. Generally they will have a limited understanding regarding both form and how their team is travelling. Further, national performance can only be gauged when team’s are subjected to the level of pressure and commitment required to roll OZ & NZ’s best. To further strategise, SA teams don’t travel well and normally struggle playing outside their comfort zone, the pace and control antipodean teams exert at home make it hard for visitors. Is this a plus or minus? If the SA conference plays out as envisaged, the coach of either the Bulls / Stormers, could be floundering in the dark come the finals. How difficult would it be to prepare a team by only watching your next rival on replay and not experiencing the hard yards.
Rugby Fixation
Roar Guru
Haha, a very accurate comparison! Who are you tipping for the top 8?
Sam Taulelei
Guest
It's almost like the America's Cup regatta where there are separate competitions for the challengers and the defenders to determine who will face off in the finals and there's a big element of the unknown about the relative merits and weaknesses based on the strength of the qualifying competition.
Rugby Fixation
Roar Guru
The loss of personnel at the Stormers will help out a little for a round one clash, which is something to be cheerful about. No Duane, no de Allende, no JDV, no Catrakilis and no Kitshoff make it a much easier encounter. The Bulls have their fair share of losses too, but I think facing Stormers in the first round after all of their coach confusion and their player changes might just be the best time to verse them. Good luck to your team, Michael!
Rugby Fixation
Roar Guru
I know what you mean, it really helps the good teams and hinders the weaker ones. The fact that a team like the Sharks has the chance to verse two new teams twice or that the Stormers miss out on playing 5 very strong NZ teams makes it a fair bit harder to get an accurate stance on how teams will perform. I'm interested to see how it goes.
Michael
Guest
The Stormers and Bulls will be South Africa's best bet this year. I am hoping that the Bulls can beat the Stormers in the conference and in the first round. They play at Newlands first up which can already give an indication who will win the conference.
Katipo
Guest
The conference structure is convoluted complicated and also unfair. What a disappointment.
Rugby Fixation
Roar Guru
Yeah he's out until mid-April unfortunately, they have a few players to fill the spot, but not to the same devastating effect as de Allende as his rampaging runs and offloads
ethan
Guest
Did I hear De Allende suffered an injury in Japan and will be out for 4 months? They'll still win the conference though.
Rugby Fixation
Roar Guru
Thankfully they'll have him for the 2016 season, if they had to lose both Burger and Vermeleun in the same season it'd be a massive blow.
carnivean
Roar Rookie
Schalk Burger is also leaving the Stormers.
Rugby Fixation
Roar Guru
I was thinking a very similar thing, Sam. I'm quite the enthusiast and don't have the best sleeping patterns, so I'm going to be watching as many of those games live as I can, but it doesn't bode well for supporters of Aussie and kiwi teams who will never have to verse those teams and virtually don't have to worry about them. Imagine a Kings vs Lions game for instance. Both of those teams probably won't make the finals, they don't have a lot of big name draw cards and they won't verse any of the Australian teams this year unless in the finals. I can see why that game might be skipped by some.
Sam Taulelei
Guest
Will be interested as the season progresses to see how many fans from this side of the world tune in to these conference games given it won't involve any Kiwi teams until the finals and similarly for Africa 02 who won't play any of the Aussie teams until the finals. I'll probably only be following the Jaguares regularly given they'll play an attacking style of rugby and the novelty factor but otherwise watching derby games between the African sides doesn't inspire me to get up in the small hours of the morning.