Make no mistake, Richmond can win this year’s premiership.
They certainly have to make up some ground on last year’s grand finalists, and get that rather large monkey off their back by winning their first final in 15 years.
But in the past three seasons, just four teams have notched more home-and-away wins than the Tigers – Geelong, Sydney, Fremantle and, of course, the all-conquering Hawks.
Yet, the Tigers aren’t taken seriously. Partly because they’ve had such a miserable 30 years and partly because they’re 0-3 in elimination finals since 2013.
But the talent, at least at the top end of the list is there.
In Alex Rance and Jack Riewoldt, the Tigers have the best key forward-key defender combo in footy.
Brett Deledio is arguably the AFL’s best medium-sized forward. Fast, strong, exceptional overhead and a beautiful ball user, Deledio it the complete package. Ty Vickery is one of the better key forward/back-up rucks in the league, and the slick Shane Edwards delivers more often than not.
In the middle, Dustin Martin is a nightmare match-up inside and out (Dusty has averaged at least 20 disposals and a goal a game in each of the past five seasons, Gary Ablett Jr, at four, is the only other player to do it for longer than two seasons). Skipper Trent Cotchin, Anthony Miles and Shaun Grigg – yep, that Shaun Grigg – do the dirty work at the stoppages, with plenty of help from lionhearted ruckman Ivan Maric. Brandon Ellis provides outside run and class.
In defence, superstar Rance is ably supported by veteran Troy Chaplin, the criminally underrated Bachar Houli, and the improving Nick Vlaustin.
The Tigers’ list is ranked eighth in both age and experience, which should mean they are primed for a sustained tilt at the top four. But to take the next step, they need improvement from the bottom-end of the list and the coaches’ box.
Ben Griffiths, Steven Morris, Jake Batchelor, Dylan Grimes and Taylor Hunt all played more than 14 games in 2015. At best, they’re average AFL players – and each of them is older than 24, meaning there’s unlikely to be much, if any, improvement in them. Morris played only twice after Round 15 last year and wasn’t in the elimination final 22, meaning his days could well be numbered. For the Tigers to improve, they might need to demote a couple more from that group.
Who takes their place though, and how does that make them better?
Reece Conca is turns 24 this year. The Tigers need the former No.6 pick to become a consistent – and healthy – footballer. Injuries restricted him to three games last year, and in five AFL seasons he is yet to play 20 games or average 20 disposals in any of them.
After that, they’ll hope at least one of Ben Lennon, Corey Ellis or 2015 draftee Daniel Rioli – all of them top-15 picks – pops.
Vlaustin and Kamdyn McIntosh, both 22, should both be better with another preseason under their belts. Vlaustin, in particular, has shown plenty as a tough, medium-sized defender and at 192 centimetres and 91 kilograms, McIntosh is at least built like the prototypical modern midfielder.
The dynamic Chris Yarran could be one of the recruits of the year. Twelve months ago, Yarran was rated by Champion Data as an elite general defender. Few players have Yarran’s combination of pace, dare and sublime foot skills. After a miserable 2015, the former Blue – still only 25 – should shine on a more talented team, but it may depend on Damien Hardwick, which brings us to the other area that needs to mature.
The Tigers’ methodical, grind-it-out style of play netted them wins over three of last year’s top four teams, but when they were forced to up the tempo, they struggled. According to Champion Data, Richmond played on from a mark (excluding marks inside 50) only 30.9 per cent of the time last season, the lowest number in the AFL. League average was 35.5 per cent and Port Adelaide was at the top of the list at 41.9 per cent.
Richmond also played wide, using the corridor just 27.3 per cent of the time when transitioning from defensive 50 (14th in the competition). Playing slow and wide makes defending easier – turnovers are easier to defend when you’re less likely to be caught running ahead of the footy and your opponent only has half the field to work with – but it also makes scoring more difficult.
The Tigers conceded only 71.3 points a game last season (third in the competition), but scored only 87.7, ranked 10th. Of the top-eight teams, only Fremantle scored fewer points per game.
The downside of the Tigers’ dour style of play was never more evident than in their elimination final loss to North Melbourne. When things got desperate and it was time to open things up late in the game, they seemed unable, or unwilling, to take the game on.
The knock on the Dockers has long been that their inability to score means they can’t overcome the firepower of the Hawks (or last year’s Eagles). The Dockers would kill for a key forward as talented as Jack Riewoldt.
For the Tigers to take the next step, the most important change might need to come from Hardwick and his staff.
Lamby
Roar Rookie
This article is very funny looking back at it!
ljerwin
Guest
I do not agree. Look at: http://www.theroar.com.au/2016/01/20/wests-tigers-2016-nrl-season-preview/ Sincerely, Lacie
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
How long has Delidio played as a "forward"? But suffice to say each of those players kicked more goals than Delidio did last year, granted that doesn't necessarily make them better although it is a pretty reasonable measuring stick for a forward's ability to do his job. But you did say Delidio was the "best forward in the league", are you sticking by that and that he is better than everyone on that list?
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
There's lots of different types of forwards there so it's a bit difficult to compare and rebut each of those. Needless to say I don't think many of those players are better than Deledio. Certainly almost none are as versatile. Some of the players you named have had only a very brief period of being effective and to that end I wouldn't say they're yet on deledios level. Some are over the hill. But like I say it's hard to got through each one succinctly. Your list has a lot of key fi wards on it and I suspect that betrays an inherent belief that the best forward has to be at least in part a big wrestling key position player and I do not share that belief
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
a) what were the percentages of Delidio playing forward vs mid last year? b) I'm sure his mid-role had a part in that too (but that is a season thing not an overall rating like yours) c) Josh Kennedy Jeremy Cameron Eddie Betts Taylor Walker Jack Gunston Jake Stringer Jack Riewoldt Chad Wingard Luke Breust Jarryd Roughead Josh Bruce Lance Franklin Josh Jenkins Tom Hawkins Mark LeCras Kurt Tippett Jesse Hogan Michael Walters Jay Schulz Tom Lynch Drew Petrie Cyril Rioli Charlie Dixon Matt Pavlich Shaun Higgins Jamie Elliot etc
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
a) ablett and fyfe aren't forwards they're mids. They might be better than deledio if they transitioned to a permanent or majority fwd role like Deledio has. But yes they both look very good when they go forward. B) the coaches association picked him in their all Australian side so they agree that he was too 5/6 last year C) list 19 better forwards
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
Can I ask - how does a player look good on paper but not have an impact? I know plenty of players who look ok on paper and have a reasonable impact but I think the idea that there are all these statistically impressive players who donn't actually do anything is a fallacy. This link http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_player_compare?tid1=15&pid1=3155&fid1=S&tid2=8&pid2=225&fid2=S&type=A Compares Hunt and All Australian Robert Murphy. Murphy gets 6 more kicks a game. He's a better player than Hunt sure - but I don't think the gulf is as wide as people state. In particular Hunt disposes at 78% a game while Murphy goes at 80% - again I think the worries about Hunts kicking are very much overstated. In short I rate Hunt
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Delidio wouldn't even make the top 10 best forwards in the league (maybe even top 20) Nick. By virtue of what you said, you're saying he's better up forward than Ablett or Fyfe.
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
Provided you consider him a forward Deledio is the best forward... Wait for it.... In the league. The fact that so many people commented on this article but did not even mention him is ludicrous. Richmond are so lucky he's stuck with the club. Could definitely have chased success - which he thoroughly deserves - at more powerful clubs. The way he plays what we now call 'high half forward' always makes me think he should've played forward all along. I mean he's a good mid and too good by foot to not play on the ball at all but there are very few players that play that position better than he does. Maybe Rioli, but honestly I'd still pick Deledio.
Milo
Roar Rookie
Interesting point Lroy. Im not sure the RFC players get ahead of themselves but yes they have been slow starters these past three years where they made finals. It may be the way the training is structured, it may be over-confidence believing their own press BS. Maybe its a combination. Im not sure even they know why. On the WCE V R game which I attended and the tigers lost by 20 points. They looked really sluggish Richmond and for them it seemed the bye couldn't have come at a worse time having inflicted Freo's first loss over there convincingly just prior. Not to make an excuse but perhaps the bye is a contributing factor. I read that, discounting teams who played each other immediately after their bye, only one team (Carlton! by four points) actually won their next game. Eight teams including Richmond against WCE failed to get up. Sydney getting overrun in Sydney and NM being pummelled by the GCS two other examples. Perhaps the AFL may need to consider moving it back a few weeks when a rest is actually welcomed! Anyways that's another subject. Only time will tell whether the Tigers can go a few steps further this year. I hope they can, but like most supporters there's always the fear of failure just around the corner...
Adrian Polykandrites
Expert
Most goals 2010-2015: Lance Franklin 401 Jack Riewoldt 378 Josh Kennedy 319 Jarryd Roughead, Travis Cloke 307 I'm not suggesting Richmond WILL win it, only that they can. Of course they need to improve. And things would need to fall their way at some point, and they'd need some luck. That's the case for just about every premiership team.
Liam
Guest
"Make no mistake, Richmond can win this year’s premiership." "In Alex Rance and Jack Riewoldt, the Tigers have the best key forward-key defender combo in footy." First one, okay, maybe. If Richmond peak at the latter end of the season, if the midfield finally learns how to turn up during finals for four quarters, and if they can guarantee themselves a top 2 berth so that they play no finals away from Victoria, because even if all other effects occur, I still can't see Richmond beating West Coast or Freo in Perth to make it to a Grand Final. Rance is very good, but Jack Riewoldt is easily one of the most temperamental players currently playing, and if he doesn't fire, who's going to kick your goals? You don't score heavily enough to win from attack (re, the Hawks, or Geelong at their best) so you have to take the Fremantle/Sydney approach of being the best defensive side. And that brings us to Rance, again. Sure, he's terrific, but "Rance is ably supported by veteran Troy Chaplin, the criminally underrated Bachar Houli, and the improving Nick Vlaustin"? No, he isn't ably supported by Troy Chaplin, Chaplin is adequate against the poorer sides - those without two decent key forwards, at least - and fails abysmally when matched against anyone of substance because he is undersized. He is Jordan Russel, reincarnated, and whilst Russel was great at racking up possession, he failed as a defender on numerous occasions. Houli is underrated because he is something of a seagull; he is the perennial receiver, and he refuses to lay a tackle. He is very good at what he does, but that leaves Richmond short a player in defense when the opposition has the ball. Vlaustin could be excellent, but he isn't a key defender, and you desperately need another good one more than another rebounding player. I suppose that you are relying on Richmond not conceding possession, because it works reasonably well for them over the last two/three years, but we've already seen that doesn't work in finals. And my final argument is this; Richmond, after what, six seasons with Hardwick at the helm, still refuse to lay a tackle. Finals are high pressure environments, and success is dictated often by the first use of the ball. If your onballers aren't winning the ball - as happens against the best - and you aren't tackling, they can run over you almost at will. North did that last year, and Carlton the year before, not out of being better, but winning the hard ball, and knowing that Richmond's defense was not capable of stopping them. Go around Rance, and you beat Richmond.
Lroy
Guest
@Milo, Im not a Richmond fan so I dont know their list as well as you do. good luck to them, they are pretty much everyones second side these days (a bit like Fitzroy back in the 1980's). As an outsider, they seemed to get ahead of themselves last year, for example, they were pretty confident going into the West Coast game, and seemed surprised when the Eagles took the points. It was almost like they had convinced themselves prior to the game they had it in the bag. To be honest, the whole start of last year the Tigers seemed to believe some of the media hype that was surrounding them. Heres hoping (for their fans sake) they dont make the same mistake this year ;-)
Mark
Guest
All I can say is that I truly believe in this team, I hope Hardwick has a B game for this year. I truly believe we can win the flag if we all play our best football when needed, good and bad sides, never letting our guards down. Truly believe in what they are doing. Go tigers. God bless
Josh
Expert
His stats can look good on paper but his game impact is minimal and his kicking is real heart in mouth stuff. Most Tigers fans I know cringe when he gets the ball.
Nick Welch
Roar Rookie
Well written Adrian! The problem with Richmond, I believe, is that I can't see any players on their list that has played less than 20-30 games, but at the same time you can see them as a future elite player. That means that I don't think their rate of improvement from their "bottom six" (that are rated lowly) can outpace the gradual decline of some of their older stars. Their chance of winning a flag needs to come soon while Rance and co are still at their peak because there's unlikely to be a heap of players taking their mantle.
Nick Welch
Roar Rookie
Cheers Adrian!
Willow
Guest
Eric McKenzie...haha...as good as Alex Rance. Thats some decent stand up mate.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Taylor Hunt? Have to disagree there, I reckon he thrived at Richmond last year as a pure runner. Geelong tried to use him as an inside midfielder, a role which he's too slight for. I'd expect him to be in the best 22 for most of the year if he maintains his 2015 form.
Adrian Polykandrites
Expert
Sometimes really good players outplay other really good players. It happens. I'd say Adelaide having 35 more inside 50s probably had a fair bit to do with it as well.