Over the summer, I have been watching replays of AFL games from the 2015 season on Fox Footy and I was impressed with one young forward, Matt Taberner.
Looking at how other forwards have developed over their career, I have seen something of a pattern.
The best forwards, except for superstars like Buddy Franklin and Jesse Hogan, seem to start making their mark in their fourth season.
Taberner is set to hit that mark this year.
First, let me explain my theory by looking at Jarryd Roughead, Jack Riewoldt, Josh Kennedy and Taylor Walker. These players are A-class forwards and it was in their fourth season where they started showing their true talent.
Over his first three seasons, Roughead kicked 58 goals. Then in his fourth season he scored 75 goals, just under double what he had scored in 2007.
Again, in Riewoldt’s first three seasons he kicked 57 goals before scoring 78 goals in his fourth season. This handed him the Coleman Medal for the 2010 season.
For Kennedy, the transition was not as dramatic. But in his first three seasons he scored 18 goals before kicking 31 in his fourth.
Walker was always one of the top AFL players with an average of 30 goals over his first three seasons, but in 2012 he doubled that with 63 goals.
So for Taberner the fourth season is the campaign most likely to have him break out of his shell and show true talent.
If he does have the breakout season and is able to get some consistent football then he should get around 40-50 goals in 2016.
With that he could solve the problems that Fremantle Dockers have with getting enough goals and bring up their average goal tally to the level of the West Coast Eagles and Hawthorn Hawks.
Should Taberner get around the 40-50 goals then I see him becoming one of the best forwards to emerge over the next eight years. If not then it could be that he is not the talent we believe him to be, yet Fremantle fans will hope he fulfills his potential.
Don Freo
Guest
There is no reason for either to move. Griffin is solid...but safe back up to Clarke's potential brilliance. He has signed for a few more years. Good job security. Everyone loves the club.
Wilson
Roar Guru
So if anyone was to move on at the end of the season you would be thinkng Griffin more then Clarke
Don Freo
Guest
Griffin will be playing second fiddle to Clarke.
Stewie
Guest
Alex Johnson :'(
Wilson
Roar Guru
has any AFL player had as much bad luck with injure as that poor bloke.
Wilson
Roar Guru
think is Sanderliands will be just short of 34 at the end of the season and Griffin is 30, so if Griffin is like Sands he could play for another 4 years. making Zac 30 himself before Griffin retires. so you could see why people could see that he my want to move on for more oppatuinitys. or you could see Griffin move on if he thinks Zac is become the number 1 Ruckman.
Don Freo
Guest
The whole thrust of Wilson's article was that for a key forward, time does its work. Taberner has taken excellent strides each year and, as suggested, in a fourth year in the system, this year might produce its fruit. Don't judge him on an incremental graph. Key forwards tend to develop exponentially. I love that this was written, not by a Freo tragic but by a fan of the team Freo is about to usurp, Hawthorn.
Don Freo
Guest
Let's just refer to him as, "The Scottish Play(er)".
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
It's why he should be referred to as the "player who shan't be named", so as to avoid any unnecessary attention from the injury gods.
Don Freo
Guest
Noooo!!! Mora has just done his left hammie.
Dean. R
Guest
Don Freo, being an avid Docker supporter and member, I love the passion and enthusiasm that you portray for our team, but I think you're a little too optimistic on this kid. He did show good signs in a few games in 2014, which caused many, including myself to believe that he would be the talent we needed to assist, and then eventually taking over from Pavlich. However, when 2015 rolled over my optimism soon disapated when I saw him drop mark after mark in numerous games. He doesn't seem to have the hands required to be an elite forward. Although I believe he may still have a role to play perhaps in another position, like a key defender or even ruck, where strong marking hands aren't as important as other traits. Both Sandilands, and Zac Dawson are a testament to this. I believe our fortunes lie with either Michael Apeness, or one of the other newcomers like Ubergang, or Collins. I do hope you are right, and I am wrong about this, but I can't see any potential in this guy as a key forward for us.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
What I guess Freo are trying to develop is a multi-pronged attack of tall forwards. So Taberner wouldn't be "taking over" from Pavlich in that sense at all. They've been hoping Taberner's development would come on more so they could have a multi-pronged attack now, while Pav's still around I'd say. Whatever happens with Taberner, they'd be hoping for a few more big forwards, particularly pack-marking-beasts, to complement his far-ranging hard-running style.
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
I would guard against looking at his previous and potential goal kicking output as the measure of how good his season/career will be. If he can get the ball and take a mark regularly then the goals will probably come. But in any case his kicking goals is really more a function of how close to goal he is. If he gets played further up the ground he may not significantly increase his goal total but could still be a very effective player. I reckon you'll actually find that compared to some of the players that have been mentioned, at the same age (as opposed to seasons played) his stats (marking, possession, tackling etc.) are not as impressive. I think he'll be around in 5 years but i wouldn't predict he'll be in the top 15 key forwards in the league. My only caveat on that is that his numbers might be a little diminished by getting subbed out of games at times? I dont have info on hand to know how often he has been subbed out but he is the type of player that if he wasn't smashing his opponent at 3/4 time you might sub him out and bring on a smaller faster option. I've definitely seen him get subbed out a couple of times anyway. So maybe you could expect his output this year to be more reflective of what he can produce over the course of a whole game and certainly there should be some natural upward trend as he gets more experience but if he is the answer to replace Pavlich I think Freo will drop off in that position. Did someone say something about Fyfe being a natural forward in this comment section? I think I agree with that but I would be worried about robbing Peter to pay Paul when he is so good around stoppages. Perhaps if Weller, Grey. Blakeley get better around the ball it would be mitigated. Interesting team this year anyway - should still be top 2.
Wilson
Roar Guru
forgot him, so there is a few that kind of showed nothing in there first part of there careers that fired when they hit the 4th
Don Freo
Guest
Learning from one of the great ruckmen, still young, Zac Clarke loves Freo. Why leave when all the stars align in your career? Established number one ruckman in a leading team. Griffin will also be moving into his 30s. Nothing more secure than Zac and Freo in the future.
Josh
Expert
Clarke is a free agent this year, so I think unless Sandilands moves on then Clarke will make the call to go somewhere he can get more opportunity.
Macca
Guest
Often Limited? You give a very generous definition of limited Don, I would only classify the 4 games he played less than 60% game time as limited. And it isn't over complicated to the average person Don - its just you who struggles to realise the missing games might be in the missing percentage range. Also as you can see above I actually agree with Wilson that Taberner is very likely to have a break out year this year, I was merely providing the facts for your assertion that " In this case you’ll find he has had much game time on the bench", I know I could show that he had played 100% of every game and you wouldn't change you opinion, but I'll let others can make up their own mind.
Slane
Guest
J-Roo was the same. A goal a game for his first 3 years before he bumped it up to 1.5 a game in year 4 and then had a Coleman the year after that.
Don Freo
Guest
My point is made. A goal a game with with often limited game time is a good performance so early in a career. Geez you complicate an obvious point, Macca. You are better off staying out of it if you just want to set up your gainsaying threadathons,
Macca
Guest
For the hard of thinking like Don Freo here are all of Taberner's games last year; Geelong - 8 disposals, 3 Marks 1 goal, 77% TOG West Coat - 12, 7, 3, 89% Sydney 5,2 1, 62% Melbourne 9, 6, 2, 87% Essendon 6, 3, 0, 75% Bulldogs 7, 6, 1, 88% North 13, 4, 2, 92% Adelaide 5, 1, 0, 49% Richmond 13, 3, 1, 90% Gold Coast 6, 1 ,0, 54% Brisbane 3, 2, 0, 39% Carlton 8, 4, 0, 88% (Clearly a superior defence) Richmond 7, 4, 1, 52% Port 15, 3, 2, 95% Hawthorn 8,2, 0, 66% So I admit a slight miscount, 6 games under 75%, and 7 games above 85% and 2 games in between. 4 games he kicked more than 1 goal and 4 games he had more than 10 possessions (3 of the games overlapping) and 6 games kicking 0 goals.