Thoroughbred racing in Australia is at a low ebb.
Trainers are being investigated and disqualified for improper use of cobalt at every turn.
Racing Victoria and Racing New South Wales continue their version of the Hundred Years War. Neither association could spell common ground, let alone reach it.
Racing Queensland has its own problems.
But the show must go on, and the first Group 1 of calendar 2016 is upon us. The Orr Stakes assembly at Caulfield is a capacity 18 runners, 13 of which are Group 1 winners. It’s a strong edition after many weak ones.
Weight-for-age races in the Melbourne spring didn’t have much between first and last, with three or four lengths covering the field, and we often walked away thinking every horse had run well. This Orr Stakes field has a similar feel about it, with 13 of the runners resuming.
Lucky Hussler heads the betting, having been well backed to do so in the early markets.
Already a Group 1 winner this season, carrying top weight to win the Toorak Handicap, he has a run under his belt this campaign with an impressive winning performance at the Magic Millions. He’s fit, he’s a Group 1 WFA winner, and 1400 metres, Caulfield and a dry track are all in his favour.
Turn Me Loose was a dual-Guineas winning three-year-old in New Zealand before maturing and coming across to take all before him in the Melbourne spring, putting together three wins on the trot, culminating in a superb victory in the Emirates Stakes.
His bold, front-running style won him many admirers and will surely continue to do so if he keeps reaching new levels. If there’s a knock on him for this race, it’s that he isn’t a noted first-up performer (3: 0-2-0), and his record at 1600 metres (4: 4-0-0) is far superior than over seven furlongs (3: 1-1-0). Plenty of punters will think he’s good enough regardless, and rightly so.
The only other horse in single figures in such a deep race is the old warhorse Boban.
Boban won the Memsie Stakes over this course and distance back in August, beating four of his rivals here in doing so – Entirely Platinum (disappointed as spring went on, but capable of running a race), Stratum Star (subsequent Group 1 winner), Rising Romance (mixed spring campaign, watch and see here), and Happy Trails (starting to feel his age?).
Boban’s last two first-up runs, the only two of his career to be run over seven furlongs, have resulted in the Memsie Stakes and Doomben 10,000 wins – both Group 1 WFA races. Fans might like to have seen a fraction more from his recent trials, but if the tempo is genuine he’s sure to be thereabouts.
Of the others from the Memsie, Stratum Star is the best chance, a horse of proven versatility and quality that always runs well. Since transferring to Darren Weir, his combined record in the 1300 to 1600-metre range is 13: 4-4-4, and he strikes as a horse that will improve campaign upon campaign for a number of preparations yet.
Bow Creek is the interesting runner. He was one of the runs of the meeting on Cox Plate day, splitting Turn Me Loose and Lucky Hussler in the Crystal Mile, eating up the ground off the fence when the rail was lightning. He didn’t produce in the Emirates Stakes second-up (but did pull up lame), and he’s a threat if here to win first-up again.
Hucklebuck, Rebel Dane, Mourinho and Trust in a Gust come into this race off Australia Stakes runs, where there was only a couple of lengths between them, as is often the case in those Moonee Valley sprints, making judgements on merit difficult to make.
Rebel Dane was honest, but ridden too close for mine. He didn’t get the chance to unleash his turn of foot. Hucklebuck ran well but was a fraction flat late after using up some petrol early. Trust in a Gust made excellent ground out wide, and loves both Caulfield and 1400 metres. Mourinho is usually at his most threatening when people have forgotten him.
Fawkner resumes over 1400 metres for the first time in two-and-a-half years, but is a better horse now. He’s been so effective first-up over the mile in recent seasons, and he does run well fresh. You’d be keener if it was at Flemington.
Fenway has quietly built a very impressive resume for a mare with only 11 starts. She’s talented, and I’ve seen worse horses than her win better races than this. Rivals will need to be wary of her all campaign.
Suavito was first-up when she won the Futurity at this course and distance a year ago. While she did beat Dissident to do so, that race didn’t bat anywhere as deep as this. She can race though, and is one of a dozen that wouldn’t shock.
Messene is a good horse, but not a real Group 1 horse, and certainly not at WFA. Red Bomber and Awesome Rock are the two most despised. It won’t shock to see the former finish in the first half of the field, and the latter will look to run well and target some second or third tier races later in the autumn.
We’d be disappointed to see a field this big with this much quality not run at a genuine tempo, and with the engagement of Turn Me Loose and Entirely Platinum, it should be assured. There’s a handful of horses that will be jockeying for position behind that speed too, so there should be few excuses for those that are beaten.
Selections
1. Turn Me Loose
2. Rebel Dane
3. Boban
4. Lucky Hussler
There are some good races up in Sydney too, but don’t forget, if Winx brains them in the Apollo Stakes, don’t spend any time watching the replay, as the Orr Stakes is scheduled to start almost as they cross the line there!
Cameron Rose
Expert
Lovely work Tristo! I thought the inside gate would work against her, but it was a wonderful pilot job by Currie.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Line in the sand here eh Cam? :D
monday QB
Guest
Your best of the day salutes again, Andrew! Well done and great to have your insights back for the autumn.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
I do like Suavito for value and throw in Mourinho, given he was third last year and has a bit of fitness. Forgive run in the Australia Stakes. Nice to have Group 1 racing, and Cam, back on deck! :)
Dean
Guest
30 minutes is a little too short for me, particularly on a big race day. Getting from watching the race, to a collect, to the bar, then back to your mates for a chat about the last and the next, then to the mounting yard then the bookies. It all seems a bit rushed. Prefer a more relaxed day, maybe 35 minutes would be ok? 40 minutes before the first quaddie leg.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Tomorrow will be hard to line up as a true experience, because ideally you'd need Sydney, Brisbane and Adelaide also 30 mins apart, evenly spaced. So tomorrow will be no good for Sydney particularly. But yep, definitely from a punters perspective.
andrew
Guest
1 First impression was to find something to beat tashbeeh cos its been up a while and goes up in weight. The right form race was the three coming through the tuff host race who all come in 3rd up and get 3kgs from tashbeeh. But on deeper analysis, this trio all have considerable negatives. Abasso is 1 from 20 on dry ground, his recent wins are on soft ground, even some of his better placings on the forgiving valley strathair surface. Pin your hopes is winless in his last 15 runs and has been well held both runs beyond 1600m. the could turn this around, but not the type of stat that will see me invest. korbeite meets the above two both worse at the weight for finishing behind them, but they did concede from the wide draw, and they ran home similar sectionals. The other danger fast n free is similar to pin your hopes in that its doubt at the distance and with little recent winning form (and a wide draw). This is a race where the form is all highly exposed – you should be able to nut through it and work it out. Korobeite, I think they should announce chance in tactics and ride it forward, as not a lot of speed in this race, he is the value. But the negatives for tashbeeh are minimal, his has winning form, the drop in distance actually suits, he is going to get a perfect run, sitting 3rd right behind the leader. Dunn rode him perfectly in his only ride on the horse, he is fit and firing and the obvious. The drop back to 1800m suits, as second bullet was coming back at him on the line, his two wins prior were both pretty good (with similar weights) and that form can be lined up via likes of sadaqa and radical (noting command time since failed from the bunched finish race) which clearly is in his favour. The dangers are ‘speculative’. 2 Pretty weak race. Moody and price usually have a spring 3yo filly resuming or something coming off a dominant maiden win in this race. On class and at the weight scale I have to go with risqué, first up from NZ. Really, a G1 winner, in what is very weak race, conceding 2kgs. she could be 75% ready and win this in my view. The likely good speed only enhances her chances. The 3yo NZ form typically stacks up over in the autumn. Not suggesting she is in league of ocean park, silent achiever, mong khan, volk-stock, but each year the NZ 3yo’s come out here and do well. she wouldn’t need to be anywhere near that level to win this. She isn’t coming a big long spell either, so should be pretty fit. as for her rivals, im always happy to risk horses coming out of those inglis races, and the form from the race mossin around comes through is awful, all 7 runners since have been unplaced, several in maidens. Cana is 2 from 2 in the dry, but fell in a maiden and had good run and weight adv in 2nd win, prob 2nd pick though. the toppy im happy to peg-hole as a horse who won some early 2yo races and is paying the penalty at the weights and others have physically caught up. the rest are better suited in a mid-week (or maiden), and you are getting $3 on a horse who is G1 winner. A clear top pick, and best of the day for me. 5 very tough race. Plenty im keen to risk and pot and many reason why I think most in the market cant win. But tough to nail one down ahead of the rest. I will have a small play on tried and tired, mostly to place, whom I think finds 1400m (esp now up in weights) his upper distance. I actually don’t mind him back in trip, freshened, up, with the blinkers on, in a race that is sure to have good speed. His 1000-1200 recent runs are all pretty good. ran 4th to politeness this track and trip last autumn beaten 1.5l when dropping back from 1400m also, and gets 3.5kgs weight swing from that, which suggests he (at $16) can compete with the fave. 6 the two faves stand out, and map for perfect runs. Both unbeaten since their clash here on c.cup day. 2kgs weight swing holler’s way, but mahuta was holding him on the line. Mahuta will lead, snoppy works across and sits out side, holler gets the back of snoopy. Hardem and sailing by tuck in for cover behind this trio from good draws. There will not be high pressure, def a few slow sectionals likely from 1000m to 600m. the stayers first up, wont be taking off from the 600m. mahuta will control the race me thinks. Tactics crucial, as holler probably better suited by a sit-sprint type race. I lean slightly mahuta’s way as he will be in front and is proven at 1400m. but with the right run, holler can knock it off. As usual, in these circumstance, rather than pick one at $3 (and thus risk the other), I prefer to take the quinella. Classic case of where I think picking the quin is easier than picking the winner – and it will pay better too !!! one of my favourite betting scenarios. 7 cracking race. No firm view. Turn me loose is high class, he would be my top pick. Boban def in the mix, needs to get a favourable run though. 8 tough race – at first impression. But acutally its not. Cant have 7-12 at the weight scale. 2 and 3 not over a mile, esp at caul. 4 a massive risk over 1600m, don’t think it gets 1400m. that leaves 1, 5, 6, 7 (1 also a risk over 1600m, esp 2nd up, but not conclusive and weight suit and gets a soft run, so goes in quad). A few noted on pacers who like to roll along, and a few stayers resuming who will get right back. Im hoping this good early speed might just open up a spot on the map for red excitement, who can def improve back on dry ground. Recent runs in good races have been on wet ground or when dry – actually very good runs. Def going better than the digits in the form guide suggest. Proven the melb way of going when winning similar grade race at flem last summer. No worries with a strong mile (noting several on pacers are a risk at a mile, eps this grade, at this weight scale). interesting to note all of winning form is from wide barriers (11 or 12, 7 of 9, 8 of 10, 9 of 9, 6 of 8, 12 of 14, 11 of 13, 4 of 8, 10 of 11, 9 of 11). Too much data in this not to draw something from it. 9 cracking race. No firm view. If the money comes for azkedellia after she appears in the mounting yard, you may as well join in. the betting flucs on her will be fascinating to follow. Suspect the bookies will open her up unders and she will drift. If she keeps drifting, then avoid. If firms heavy, then get on. Def not a race where I want to be locked in on her ‘top fluc’. So, if not her..who then. well its wide open. I can make cases for many of them. Best of those, at value, might be miss steele, who has been sparingly raced, but goes well 2nd up, and her first up run was good – and gets good weight swing on choose - , she ran 4th in G1 sangster 2nd up last prep this trip on dry ground, she beat waiwail easily that day and meets her 4.5kgs better for doing so and is triple the price (she also beat politeness, vain queen, Sabatini), so she is def ‘up’ to this class . but, a lot of these mares have peak run in them that would be good enough (even nadeem lass at $51 – not the worst place bet). But no doubt azkedellia has the highest peak. ADL 4 devils pinch for moody. Soft win first up when heavily backed, scr from a strong race at sand on wed for this easier task, progressive horse, $8 good value. 5 – zayak is ready to win, covered a lot ground last time (despite a good draw) just faded last 25m. open race, but a $20 shot with a genuine winning chance. 7 – bel seal, one more chance. I liked it last time at flem, and it got backed heavily, this is much weaker race, and 1400m is best trip, no excuses this time, should be fully fit now, moody admitted he was big when he resumed. Of course, dan zephyr whom beat him last time, has won again a much strong race last sat at caul, bel seal did give it 3kgs, and stays down in the weights here carrying 55kgs again, but in much weaker race. MV tonight 6 – Charles in charge, ready to win, after 2 good runs back from a spell. 8 – ginali. Everyone will find it, but hard to ignore its warm up runs, well placed (but you would go broke backing this stables runners), should win though. Colac – Sun 8 – Prestbury Park, dominant win last time in 58 race, after taking off wide at the 800m and sustaining a long run when only 2nd up, this is 64, but progressive horse in a weak race. Best multi: risqué to win , mahuta-holler quinella, bel seal to place. looking approx. $3 x $3.50 x $2.30 = $24.
andrew
Guest
i will be at caul tomorrow also. and if you write a piece about the experience , i will put my 2 cents in as a reply. mine will be from a punters perspective. i want to sit in the old wooden grandstand (just past the winnign post) and watch each race live and then spend the rest of the day in the chairmans between each race watching the interstate races (they will have the cricket on too for sure, caul are very good at showing other events). i must say, the 1:30pm start is good. give me a chance to take the daughter to swimming, the son to milo cricket, do the shopping, have lunch and domestic duties the mrs has lined up for me, and still get there for the 1st.
Cameron Rose
Expert
The Victorian in me says that whatever upsets NSW must be a good thing. ;) I wasn't at the track last week, but I will be tomorrow. Gut feel is that I don't like the 30 minute window on Saturday's, but it should apply to the rest of the week. I might write a piece for Monday after I experience it at Caulfield tomorrow. I'm with you on Shane. I don't always agree with him, but he's always worth listening to or reading. Sharp mind, and passion for the best in racing is unquestioned. The perfect person to be on a national racing committee that had some teeth.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
From what I have seen at the trials, and as you say, 1400m first up, he is the horse to beat by a mile. But I just keep coming back to Schofield not riding. The horse just only seems to run for him
Cameron Rose
Expert
Good to be back Ryan, thanks for the welcome. Too hard for me I reckon. If I wanted to absolute guarantee I'd get that leg of the quaddie, I'd need to take 12. Agree on LH and Boban, they tick a lot of boxes. I'm likely to spec at odds I think. Maybe Rebel Dane and Stratum Star.
kv joef
Guest
thx Cam. Really looking forward to yours and Justin's project. readers may think i am a rabid supporter of RacingNSW - i'm not. as mentioned elsewhere a 30min race interval is fine by me, PROVIDING there are no casualties. Shane Anderson of Racing.com just published VicRacing side of the argument. I have a lot of time for Anderson's opinion regardless of whether i agree or not. pleased to see him taking the MC role at Racing.com. As would be expected, the article seems accurate both in detail and reasoning and well worth the read ... Anderson's article ... https://www.racing.com/news/2016-02-12/comment-battle-is-about-customer-habits
ryan
Roar Rookie
Welcome back Cam. On the whole racing debacle thing, I support RV and the 30 minute gaps. Just need the others to follow suit (as you say, wouldn't a national racing body work well on that?!) How hard is the Orr to pick first up? A big, quality field. I'm going Lucky Hussler and Boban. Lucky Hussler because the 8 barrier seems perfect (Bossy shouldn't get stuck on the fence) and has had a (very good) run, and Boban because he loves it 1st up and from watching it trial he looks sharp. Respect the field so I'm betting midget.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Barrier 8 just feels perfect for Lucky Hussler doesn't it. His win was dominant and effortless up on the Gold Coast. Huge watch on Bow Creek definitely. Might be worth backing him for the Queen Elizabeth at good odds.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Very good call Adam. Amazing partnership those two have. But it could be that first-up over seven furlongs is the secret.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Gee he was amazing in the Crystal Mile, after obviously having problems in the spring, given he resumed so late.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Good commentary KV. Justin Cinque and I have got a project going where we imagine a world where racing is run as a national sport. We'll be publishing it across five days in a few weeks time.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
I think Boban is a real risk, purely based on the fact that Glyn Schofield isn't riding. The horse only performs when he steers, so I am prepared to take him on.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
The stable believe he could be the best horse they've brought out here!
Aransan
Guest
Very difficult to evaluate Bow Creek, could be the smokey.