2016 NRL preview series: Penrith Panthers

We’re back with week two of our NRL preview series. In week one we looked at the bottom five teams from last season the Knights, Tigers, Titans, Warriors and Eels. You can find all of those reviews http://www.theroar.com.au/rugby-league/nrl/nrl-season-preview/here.

This week we’ll be moving into the middle of the table from last season starting today with the Penrith Panthers, a team that was devastated by injury in 2015 but that looks well positioned to bounce back this year.

READ THE ROAR‘S FULL 2016 NRL PREVIEW SERIES HERE
» NRL season preview: Newcastle Knights
» NRL season preview: Wests Tigers
» NRL season preview: Gold Coast Titans
» NRL season preview: New Zealand Warriors

2015 in review – Injurypocalypse
2015 was a year to forget for the Panthers as the team battled endless injuries and slumped from a preliminary final in 2014 to an 11th placed finish.

The team used 32 total players and lost significant time along their first choice spine with Segeyaro (18 games), Wallace (13 games), Soward (16 games) and Moylan (11 games) all missing multiple games. With players in and out on a week to week basis the team was never able to establish any consistency and managed back to back wins on only two occasions.

One curiosity among all those injuries: the two starting props Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Sam McKendry, along with the main bench prop Jeremy Latimore all played all 24 matches. A remarkable record from the big men amidst the carnage.

Offseason story – Cleary out, Griffin in
In what is probably one of the most surprising coaching changes in recent memory the Panthers decided to move on from Ivan Cleary and replace him with former Broncos coach Anthony Griffin.

After joining the team for the 2012 season Cleary, along with General Manager Phil Gould, presided over a considerable overhaul of the roster, including moving on fan favourites Luke Lewis, Michael Jennings, Michael Gordon and Lachlan Coote. After struggling in 2012 the team improved rapidly over 2013 and 2014 and made a preliminary final in 2014.

With that in mind it seems strange that the club has chosen to move on from Cleary after a year which while disappointing, was also blighted with injuries, especially as the man who they have brought in to replace Cleary, Anthony Griffin, was largely regarded as underachieving in his four years in charge of the Broncos.

Time will no doubt tell as to the wisdom of the coaching shake up and with a divisive General Manager like Gould involved there will no doubt be some in the media ready to lambast the club if Griffin doesn’t get early results.

Roster management

2016 Gains: Sitaleki Akauola, Zach Dockar-Clay, Ben Garcia, Andrew Heffernan, Peta Hiku, Viliame Kikau, Te Maire Martin, Suaia Matagi, Trent Merrin,

2016 Losses: Lewis Brown, Adam Docker, Jamal Idris, Isaac John, Brent Kite, Apisai Koroisau, Sika Manu, Ben Murdoch-Masila, Nigel Plum, David Simmons,

The big story here is the acquisition of two current representative stars in Merrin and Hiku and potentially three future stars in the form of NYC standouts Martin, Dockar-Clay and Kikau.

The recruitment of Merrin and Hiku, both regulars for NSW and New Zealand respectively, reflects an astute strategy the club has employed under Gould. In recent seasons the club has enjoyed great success in targeting emerging players with three or four seasons of NRL experience to complement the club’s home-grown talent. Dean Whare, Lewis Brown, James Segeyaro and Elijah Taylor have all been tremendous assets for the club and all took off at the Panthers after cutting their teeth at other clubs.

Merrin, of course, is a little older and has more experience than most of the players on that list, but still fits the bill as a player who has had ups and downs but is clearly on the cusp of becoming extraordinary.

Meanwhile, the club has also aggressively targeted upside potential with the three NYC players named above, plus former Raiders junior Andrew Heffernan all having shown first grade ability.

On the outgoing side the team is losing four players to retirement with Docker, Kite, Plum and Simmons all hanging up the boots. Sadly for Adam Docker, who was a country rep only two years ago, this choice to give it away has come at age 24 after a promising career was cruelled by injuries.

Interestingly three of the other departing players, Koroisau, Brown and John, are joining the Sea Eagles which is presumably not unrelated to Trent Barrett taking over as head coach in Manly.

Likely line up
1. Matt Moylan
2. Josh Mansour
3. Dean Whare
4. Peta Hiku
5. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
6. Jamie Soward
7. Peter Wallace
8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard
9. James Segeyaro
10. Sam McKendry
11. Bryce Cartwright,
12. Elijah Taylor
13. Trent Merrin

14. Tyrone Peachey,
15. Jeremy Latimore
16. Isaah Yeo
17. Suaia Matagi.

Lots of really interesting questions here. Firstly, the halves where the conventional wisdom is that the team will start with Wallace and Soward but also that they’re actively looking for an opportunity to move on from one or both of them.

With the reportedly poor relationship that Wallace and new coach Anthony Griffin had at the Broncos, plus Wallace’s advancing age and poor injury record it does seem inevitable that Wallace will be moved on.

But that’s where it gets really interesting with a number of candidates to fill the role. New skipper Matt Moylan already basically plays as a half in attack, touching the ball as often as 50 times a game, nearly twice as much as most fullbacks. Moreover there is a ready-made replacement for Moylan at the back with Dallin Watene-Zelezniak having shown his class in five games at the spot in 2015 before a collapsed lung ended his season.

Beyond Moylan there is fringe first grader Will Smith and two five-star halves recruits in Te Maire Martin and Zack Dockar-Clay. Martin and Dockar-Clay made up the New Zealand pairing for the junior international played in May last year and one or both of those players may push for first grade selection with Martin already impressing in the team’s first trial game.

In addition to the speculation about the halves there are further questions in the backline, with as many as eight genuine first graders competing for the five jobs. With Moylan, Mansour, Whare and Watene-Zelezniak all well-established in the top team, offseason recruit Peta Hiku will likely displace Waqa Blake and also leave both George and Robert Jennings even further on the outer.

The final big question is how the club will utilise Trent Merrin. At 108kgs and 182cm and gifted with the stamina and footwork of a man half his size (so to speak), Merrin seems tailor made for a power lock role rather than a traditional prop role, particularly in an eight interchange league.

With Merrin at 13 adding his go forward to that of the genuine props the club would have the flexibility to use creative players like Bryce Cartwright and Tyrone Peachy as little or as much as necessary.

However playing Merrin at lock would require moving Elijah Taylor out of that position. Taylor was very effective in 2015, as the team’s defensive anchor at lock in 2015 with over 50 tackles per game (and an astonishing low missed tackle rate of less than three a game).

However the reality is that if Merrin does displace Taylor at lock – which seem likely) Taylor probably doesn’t have the passing or running game (he made only 45m a game on less than six carries per game) to play effectively on the edge (although I have named here there for now).

Certainly he won’t have the impact in that position that players like Cartwright and Peachy will have so if he doesn’t play in 13 he may quickly find himself relegated to the bench as a middle unit backup.

Player to watch – Matt Moylan
In 2014 Matt Moylan scored nine tries, set up 14 more for his teammates, had 11 line breaks and 16 line break assists, placing him in the top three among fullbacks for both try assists and line break assists.

Remarkably in the 11 games he did play in 2015 Moylan was actually on a much better pace as a playmaker recording 11 try assists and 12 line break assists. As a pure playmaker those per game statistics compare favourably with the very elite halves in the game. More relevantly in the immediate future though is that Jamie Soward and Peter Wallace had eight combined try assists in 2015.

On the other hand Moylan has a relatively poor running game for a fullback, averaging a tick over 100m per game in both 2014 and 2015 putting him firmly in the bottom third among regular fullbacks. Meanwhile, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak punched out over 150m from the back in his five games at the back.

Moylan’s eventual move from one to six seems like only a matter of time at this point but it will be interesting to see just how long it takes for new coach Anthony Griffin to pull the trigger on what will be a major decision even if all the numbers suggest that it makes sense.

Predicted finish – Fringe of the eight
The Panthers are one of the most fascinating teams heading into 2016. After a lost year in 2015 they enter 2016 with a stronger squad overall but with serious question marks about how committed they are to their halves.

With the honest toil of the front row giants McKendry, Campbell-Gillard and Latimore combined with the athleticism and creativity of back row players like Merrin, Cartwright and Peachy the team has one of the most balanced forward packs in the competition. Meanwhile, they have outside backs for days and junior stars waiting in the wings should the starting halves falter.

However with a new coach and so many players coming off interrupted seasons in 2015 it is probably a tad presumptuous to pencil the team straight back into the eight and thus we slot them into the battle royale on the fringe of the eight

Follow Lachlan on Twitter @mrsports83