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Our first three teams in The Roar‘s 2016 NRL preview series were all teams that finished towards the bottom of the table in 2015.
While the Newcastle Knights, Wests Tigers and Gold Coast Titans will be looking to rebuild via incremental improvements in 2016, our next team has different aspirations.
The New Zealand Warriors have swung for the fence in recruitment and will be looking for major improvement and indeed a title challenge.
FULL 2016 NRL PREVIEW SERIES
NRL season preview: Newcastle Knights
NRL season preview: Wests Tigers
NRL season preview: Gold Coast Titans
2015 in review: Contention then capitulation
The review for the Warriors’ 2015 is summed up by a picture of the moment Shaun Johnson shattered his ankle scoring a try against the Sea Eagles in Round 20.
Up until that point the team was actually having a good season. With nine wins and eight losses the Warriors were sitting in eighth and seemed poised to make a run into the finals a la 2011. Instead, they capitulated without their talismanic halfback, falling to 13th on the back of an eight-game losing streak.
Off-season story: Ivan Cleary fired by the Panthers
It was the last thing that current Warriors coach Andrew McFadden needed: a well-regarded predecessor unexpectedly popping back on the market.
McFadden faces increased expectations since signing two of the top-20 players in the NRL. And the Panthers’ dismissal of Cleary has only sped up the clock for McFadden to find success.
Whether Cleary is interested in a return to Auckland or not, the perception will be there that every loss is inching his return closer. Unless the team starts very strongly that chatter is only going to increase.
Roster management
2016 gains: Blake Ayshford, Ali Lauitiiti, Issac Luke, Jeff Robson, Ligi Sao, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck.
2016 losses: Brad Abbey, David Bhana, Glen Fisiiahi, Nathan Friend, Siliva Havili, Sebastine Ikahihifo, Ngani Laumape, Suaia Matagi, Dominique Peyroux, Sam Rapira, Sam Tomkins, Chad Townsend.
If I offered you the best attacking dummy half in the competition and fullback, who is almost certainly Neo from the Matrix, is that something you might be interested in?
After years of chasing the big-name free agents such as Kieran Foran and Sonny Bill Williams, the Warriors finally landed the big one when they signed Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. Then they basically got Issac Luke for free when internal ructions at Souths reportedly led the energetic dummy half to look elsewhere.
There is little doubt that Luke and Tuivasa-Sheck are absolutely top-tier talents in the NRL. The only real question will be how quickly they can settle into their new team. If they do adjust quickly this team may well be in contention for the top four.
However, the recruitment season wasn’t entirely a winning one for the club. In a team that is bringing otherworldly talents like Luke and Tuivasa-Sheck, it seems a little odd to say that the loss of Chad Townsend may actually hurt them.
In 22 games for the Warriors in 2015, Townsend recorded 11 try assists and six linebreak assists. He also ran the ball six times for 58 metres per game while making 20 tackles a game (and missing a little over two per game, a reasonable rate for a half). In short he was a decent, if not spectacular, NRL half.
But when the guy wearing the number seven is perhaps the most creative and frenetic half in the game when playing well, that ‘know what you’re getting’ foil was exactly what the mercurial Shaun Johnson needed. That steadiness may well be missed.
Meanwhile, the signing of Blake Ayshford is perhaps the most perplexing move any team has made in recent memory. Why in the world the team that produces a fresh batch of super talented outside backs every year needs to sign a mediocre centre from the Sharks’ NSW Cup team is mystifying.
Likely line-up
1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
2. Jonathan Wright
3. Solomone Kata
4. Tuimoala Lolohea
5. Manu Vatuvei
6. Thomas Leuluai
7. Shaun Johnson
8. Jacob Lillyman
9. Issac Luke
10. Ben Matulino
11. Ryan Hoffman
12. Bodene Thompson
13. Simon Mannering
14. Raymond Faitala-Mariner
15. Ben Henry
16. Sam Lisone
17. Albert Vete
There are a couple of key questions initially. The first being who will complement Johnson in the halves. In this line-up, I’ve selected Thomas Leuluai but he is probably better suited to playing at dummy half (and may see some time off the bench as a utility if the club wants to manage Luke’s minutes).
The other options are Jeff Robson, a serviceable professional who probably won’t hurt you too much but is also unlikely to win you any games. But the most intriguing possibility is moving young star in the making Tuimoala Lolohea from the outside backs to the halves.
Lolohea did pinch hit at the position in the tail end of 2015 and did a fair impression of a half. Moving Lolohea would also reopen a centre spot for the oft-injured, oft-dropped Konrad Hurrell who remains very large and very fast and if he can keep his knees to himself could still prove to be a very effective first grader.
The forward pack is rock solid, if lacking in a certain panache that was long associated with the Warriors. Ben Matulino and Simon Mannering are, unsurprisingly, the standouts, however players like Bodene Thompson and Raymond Faitala-Mariner also outplayed their billing (and presumably their pay packets) in 2015.
Meanwhile, while Matulino and Jacob Lillyman were typically excellent, the future is also secure with young props Albert Vete and Sam Lisone providing fine service in limited minutes. If those two continue to develop, this pack will give players like Johnson, Luke and Tuivasa-Sheck the space they need.
Player to watch: Shaun Johnson
In the first 18 games of 2015 Shaun Johnson recorded 12 try assists, eight linebreak assists and 14 line breaks and was running the ball just over five times a game for 55 metres. All of which are solid to good numbers but a long way from the numbers put up by the top tier of halves.
Certainly they were a long way from the sort of contribution that one expects from the incumbent New Zealand halfback and a long way from the perception of Johnson as fleet-footed chaos machine. Indeed Johnson recorded four games in which he didn’t record a single try assist, linebreak assist or linebreak.
So it is fair to say that even before the injury, 2015 was a down year for Johnson, who at his best makes a mess of defensive structures with his truly ridiculous first step and creative passing game. But now he faces not just reclaiming his playing mojo but doing so while easing his way back into football after a serious injury, the type which has permanently encumbered players in the past.
Predicted finish: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
It is a bit of a cliché to say that the Warriors will be unpredictable. But it is extremely difficult to project a team that not only just turned over three-quarters of its spine and in the process brought in two outstanding internationals, but also faces questions marks about Shaun Johnson’s fitness.
Johnson’s spectacular performance and free running at the Auckland Nines was encouraging but the test is to maintain that performance.
One thing is certain, a spine that includes three singular talents like Issac Luke, Shaun Johnson and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is flames. But whether the fire is destroying the Warriors or the opposition is yet to be seen.
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