Optimistic New Zealand fans will point to this Wellington Test tracing a remarkably similar path as the most recent matches at the same ground, against Sri Lanka and India.
The tale of the tape sounds familiar enough. New Zealand losing the toss and being asked to bat on a Kermit-green wicket, fumbling to a sub-par score, before conceding a substantial first innings lead.
Against both India and Sri Lanka, New Zealand also lost early second innings wickets before ending day three at five wickets down, in grave danger of losing. Again in both cases, New Zealand finally came good on day four, finding friendly batting conditions and the necessary grit to build substantial partnerships to eventually turn the match situation around.
This time New Zealand are only four wickets down – marginally better – but are considerably deeper in the hole, to the tune of a 201-run deficit.
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» Scorecard: New Zealand vs Australia first Test
They are also without their three most experienced batsmen. Kane Williamson and Brendon McCullum both winkled out, and Ross Taylor a fixture on the physio table.
The Basin Reserve pitch has played precisely as expected; helpful for bowling during the first two sessions, before bringing the batsmen into their own. Undoubtedly, this pitch is good enough for the remaining New Zealand batsmen to see out the five sessions they would need to force a draw. But for this to happen, it would require a major turnaround from what we have seen so far.
The beauty of Test cricket is that there are many discrete events which influence the ebb and flow of a game, and ultimately the outcome. Moments of indecision, luck, a lapse in concentration or a display sheer skill.
New Zealand have not played poorly in this match, certainly compared to their lame Gabba effort in November, but they have trailed Australia on all these key indicators, and will be bitterly disappointed with their position in the match.
Nobody doubts that adjusting from short-form cricket to Test cricket is difficult, but it is reasonable to expect professional cricketers to do just that. Yet on day one, too many New Zealand batsmen played away from their body – against accurate bowling and sideways movement – and thus paid with their wickets.
What could they have done with a bit more application and a total of say, 250-260 and another session of time eaten up? Similarly, both Martin Guptill and Tom Latham made good starts in the second innings, before inexplicably throwing their wickets away to Nathan Lyon.
Both will now be wondering where their moments of madness came from. But whatever conclusion they reach, the evidence suggests that they weren’t mentally ready to bat the time which Test cricket not only allows but, in this position, their situation demanded.
Brendon McCullum will also be disappointed with the manner of his final-over dismissal; in his case not a failure of discipline, but a lapse of technique, missing a straight one from Mitchell Marsh.
By contrast, two of the Australian top order batsmen who got starts, went on to ruthlessly take advantage. Usman Khawaja showed no separation anxiety from his chum Adam Zampa having returned home, and continued on with his imperious form.
Adam Voges looks so at home in Test cricket it is truly astounding to comprehend how he came to the caper so late in his career. Certainly he was out on the first evening, but it was another seemingly effortless 232 runs before he gave New Zealand another chance.
The bowling tells a similar tale. Josh Hazlewood, correctly identified by Ronan O’Connell in his match preview as Australia’s key player, quickly found the right length for this pitch, and the consistent accuracy to match. He bowled a superb spell to Williamson, testing him with a series of tailing in-duckers, before moving one away in the fourth stump channel.
Hazlewood also dug deep on Sunday, putting in an extra shift as Peter Siddle sat out the final session with an ankle complaint.
There are whispers from some that Williamson has lost his form, mojo or both. But in this case he was simply beaten by a bowler at the top of his game. Throw in a sublime catch by Peter Nevill in the first dig and all he can do for now is shrug his shoulders and look forward to better days ahead – hopefully in Christchurch.
Whatever the help provided by Guptill and Latham, Lyon’s accuracy and control also provided a substantial point of difference to the struggling Mark Craig.
To illustrate, three times Craig was the bowler as Khawaja (100), and Voges (100 and 200) approached their milestones. But whatever pressure the batsmen may have felt was released as, respectively, a long-hop and two gentle full-tosses delivered their centuries on a plate.
Whatever excuses Craig may have had early season in Australia, it is difficult now to find any justification for extending his Test career beyond this match – particularly at the expense of an improving Ish Sodhi.
Once again, as in Adelaide, New Zealand’s progress has been stymied by finding themselves on the wrong end of an umpiring howler. Test cricket against Australia is hard enough at the best of times without an umpire chipping in as well, but the best the Black Caps can hope for now is the “Karma Bus” winding its way to Christchurch in time for the next test.
Conventional wisdom states that luck evens itself out over time, but McCullum now has only one more game left to make any use of it.
Assuming of course that this doesn’t kick in immediately, his lower order bats out the best part of the next two days, and Hazlewood, Lyon and the rest of the Australian attack loses the plot. In a word, unlikely.
Geoff Parkes
Expert
One thing we've seen a lot in test cricket in recent years is that, where the sides are relatively evenly matched, individual games are often won by crushing margins, but then the next test throws up the reverse result. What this implies is that variables like the toss, pitch conditions, umpiring calls, player ins and outs, and individual match performances can easily throw up a different result. So on that basis, there is no reason for NZ supporters to despair - assuming that the Black Caps do lift their game in Christchurch. And yes, a change of luck at the toss would help things along...
WQ
Guest
Fair call Allanthus and I certainly agree re: the Adelaide howler, it turned the match. I think the Kiwi's dropped their lips a bit at the same time so there was a lesson in that for them. I'm not sure that a similar thing hasn't happened in Wellington with only one difference, the Kiwi's didn't drop their lips this time. I think New Zealand needed everything to go well, they didn't need any poor decisions let alone a howler like that. Lets face it they get Voges, get a chance at another batsmen late in the day with enormous pressure or in fact get a night watchmen, the mind boggles! I don't disagree with your assessment of the New Zealand batting in either innings, but it's hard to ignore a couple of significant factors in this Test: 1-New Zealand lost the toss and were sent in on a green top, had the roles been reversed I have no doubt it would have been Australia chasing the game after day one. Once you are chasing a game of cricket everything is 10 times harder. 2-The Illingworth howler cost New Zealand 225 runs, I think Voges was on 7 at the time, but worse than that it cost the opportunities as mentioned above. I'm not to stressed just quietly and think things could just as easily be turned completely around in the next Test.
Geoff Parkes
Expert
WQ, the Adelaide decision hurts NZ fans the most because I genuinely believe that was the winning and losing of the match. In a low scoring game, Lyon gets given out, Starc doesn't bat and NZ has a match winning first innings lead. In this case, as RK says, 232 runs is one heck of a sliding doors moment, and it's obviously a different game without that score by Voges. But in saying that, whatever Australia may or may not have scored, NZ simply haven't batted well enough in both innings - they don't appear to be in proper test mode, where they grind out runs and time according to the situation. In this match, Australia has them well covered with bat and ball. Adelaide was different, it was the 3rd test, they were playing good enough cricket to win it. But - and I'm not downplaying how poor Illingworth's call was - not in Wellington. NZ was off the pace in all aspects.
WQ
Guest
The Black Caps need to continue to put bad things behind them and adapt accordingly, there is always going to be poor decisions. They have come a long way with their mantra of putting the game first and as a fan I am very proud of the Team as a result of that. Having said that the two very poor decisions in this series to date that have gone against them have been absolute howlers and both had an effect on the outcome of those Test's. I just hope they are not suffering as a result of being seen as easy to get along with by officials? They should be proud of the fact they have not spat the dummy publicly about these issues, have not been drawn into the sledging that comes with the Australian Cricket Team and have played the series to date with an excellent attitude. I just wonder how the Australian Team and their fans would have coped had the reverse been the case?
Allanthus
Guest
Hi Chris, agree with that, Craig has been popular in the team set-up because he is the ultimate team man; bats well and (until this game) catches expertly as well. But at the end of the day he is a front line bowler, there to take wickets and maintain tight pressure on the days when the pitch isn't helping. Which he clearly isn't doing. It's time for NZC to look elsewhere.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
I must admit I was pretty surprised by this result. As an Aussie I'm happy they've done well like this, but while travelling to NZ isn't physically far, it's quite different conditions, and to go into a short test series like this with no warm-up games at all (I don't particularly count the ODI's, lesst than half the team played the ODI's anyway). Could easily have expected a tough start to the series, a bit like NZ have had away from home in recent times, struggling in the first test and then getting better as the series has gone on in a few different series recently.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Have to believe they select Craig because they like him adding depth to the batting, but while it's nice to have a strong tail, you only select the bowler who's a better batsman if it's pretty much line-ball in the bowling department with those he is in competition with. You can't afford to sacrifice quality bowling for a bit with the bat as it's likely to cost you a lot more with the ball than it gains with the bat.
hog
Guest
Losing the toss, Dodgy no ball, but have still been well & truly outplayed. The 2nd NZ innings was disappointing. That was Guptills big chance to prove himself with the red ball and he goes out trying to hit Lyon for a six with 2 whole days remaining. Agreed regards the bowling Craig just leaks runs, and Wagner is the unlucky guy in NZ cricket, he would have tightened things up from one end. Also can't help observe that although Sothee/Boult are great bowlers,but there can be a sameness about the attack when the shine goes, Boult is deadly when he gets it up around 140, but just seems a few k's of this summer.
Geoff Parkes
Expert
Glad you've enjoyed the match. I guess when you reflect on how tough it can be at times to be a Black Caps supporter you can always think of that masochist guy supporting the Western Force...
Digby
Roar Guru
Nicholls and or Watling will need a double for sure. Conditions are in their favour so I'm hoping! Anyway, have things I can do with my leave if it does not work out as we hope! Probably don't need another two days of cooking in the sun! ;)
Digby
Roar Guru
Further to that, it has been an excellent few days here and have really enjoyed the chats and banter with our Aussie visitors. Been excellent considering a few of the stories about fan interaction in recent years. Some claim the ANZAC spirit is a thing of the past, well not to me and not from what I have personally seen here. Although I did have to bail up one Aussie supporter this morning for daring to come to the basin with a black and gold Western Force shirt on. Honestly, win one trial game and that's the go? Shocking behaviour ;)
Geoff Parkes
Expert
That's the fighting spirit Digger!! And on the positive side, with some decent, sunny weather, Wellington has come up a picture these last 3 days. Almost looks like a half decent place to live. On the negative side, I don't even think that lunchtime tomorrow is enough to cut the mustard. 200 behind, I reckon they'd need to bat well into the 2nd session, closer to tea, to save the game. We all know there's plenty of batting talent there but it's a huge ask - maybe a 3rd consecutive Watling ton will do it?
Geoff Parkes
Expert
Ah yes, the old "they should have been good enough to get him out anyway" argument - which also got good mileage after Nathan Lyon got two bats in Adelaide. In short Viv, test cricket is hard work, it can be difficult to get batsmen out - lord knows cricket continues to weight all the favours for batsmen. Why should bowlers have to dismiss anybody twice?
Digby
Roar Guru
Great summary Allanthus. Asking a lot of Nicholls but he has a great opportunity ahead to make this a debut to remember. Watling of course has proven he has the ability to chew up time but this is a far more disciplined attack. Reality is we need to bat until at least lunch tomorrow. Perhaps Craig can play more of a part with the bat as opposed to his bowling so far. Here's hoping we can put up a decent fight!
VivGilchrist
Guest
NZ do realize it is only on a no-ball that a batsman can't be dismissed? They were allowed to dismiss Voges before he accumulated another 232 runs....
Geoff Parkes
Expert
It's a good point RK. I was astonished on the 2nd morning when Allan Border meekly defended Illingworth by reminding viewers how tough the umpire's job is and that at the end of the day he just has to "go with his gut" and make a call. I was astonished to hear that - since when does a front foot no-ball call rely on a gut feeling? He's either over the line or he isn't. Because of the ability to review dismissals when actual no-balls are not called, one would think it fairly straightforward for umpires to err on the side of caution and call out the obvious ones, and not have a punt on the tight ones. Short of sensors in the ground (which isn't going to happen any time soon) I don't actually think technology can fix this. This was purely down to incompetent umpiring, and yes, Illingworth should pay a heavy price for it.
Geoff Parkes
Expert
I'm not so down on Williamson Moa. He looked in sparkling touch in the first dig and paid heavily for two outstanding efforts by Neville and Hazelwood. The tactic of bowling straight to him and stacking mid-wicket obviously worked yesterday to shut him down and frustrate him, but he's good enough to figure it out.
Geoff Parkes
Expert
Hi Riccardo Yes the ball with which Bracewell bowled Voges was an absolute pearler, but at other times he has been too easy to put away. Same for all of the attack really. The big difference is that Australia has had only one bowler (Bird) who has given up regular boundary balls, whereas Hazelwood, Siddle, Marsh and Lyon have been far tighter and consistent. It's as if NZ have forgotten (bowling and batting) that test cricket is a war of attrition and patience over time.
Red Kev
Roar Guru
No-one but Bracewell will remember in a year, but right now it sucks that this match will see a result. 232 runs is a big sliding door. Illingworth needs to be immediately stood down. They showed at least one more no-ball call that was actually legal and at least one not-called overstep. What is the point of the law if the umpire is just making it up?
moaman
Roar Guru
Nice summation you two. The pitch has played like some of us expected. We lost the toss also as expected. We left out Wagner (as expected) but against my wishes! The poor,disappointing and soft dismissals of Guptill & Latham in the 2nd innings was probably due more to fatigue than anything yet it compounded the abject effort of their first innings that led to them being in that position in the first place.\ Williamson was poor too by his standards.He persisted with trying to run the ball down to third man and in a classic case of a strength becoming a weakness edged a ball he had no business playing at--despite Cummings & co claiming "he had to play".It wasn't even 4th stump line Allanthus--that is very generous,it was a ball Smith,eg, would have left from outside the line of off.KW appears to be a bit muddled in his thinking at the moment-which is very unusual.