How long before Super Rugby's expansion teams win a match?

As the new era of Super Rugby readies itself to kick off the 2016 season this week, the realities will start to hit home for each of the 18 teams, and the individuals within.

All kinds of predictions are in full swing; who’ll top each conference, who’ll lift the shiny new Super Rugby cup, who’ll run last, who’s got the easiest draw…

Indeed, I had my crack last week.

2016 SUPER RUGBY TEAMS

When it comes to the three new teams – or new-ish, in the case of the Southern Kings – we’ve been forced into guesswork, however. With no history to go on, there’s little other option. And in the Kings’ case, even with history to go on, guesswork is still the best option.

In that regard, the Kings are probably the easiest to guess. Of all the Super Rugby articles I’ve read in the last week and a bit, I haven’t seen anyone daring to suggest they’ll finish higher than 18th overall.

The situation in Port Elizabeth isn’t brilliant, and a team losing players and coaches hand over fist due to missed or non-payment before a ball is kicked in anger is never a good look. In that respect, debate about their place in an expanded competition is as reasonable as it is inevitable. But this is not a debate about their worthiness; they’re part of the competition and it’s time to get on with it.

Everyone has an opinion on how the new teams will fare in 2016. But here’s a question to ponder: when will the Southern Kings, the Sunwolves, and Los Jaguares win their first game?

Kings
Several of those season and team previews I referred to suggested the Kings won’t win a game in 2016, and I’d imagine the odds of them going winless in their Suer Rugby rebirth are on the shorter side.

But they will win a game this season, simply because they can play with nothing to lose. Furthermore, somewhere along the way, a team will take them a fraction easier than they should, and they’ll have their pants pulled down.

In their one and only season of Super Rugby, in 2013, the Kings won three and drew one of their 16 games. Their first win actually came in their first game, beating the Western Force 22-10 at home in Port Elizabeth.

In 2016, I’d be surprised if they won games outside South Africa, and even winning away from the Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium might be a big ask. But there are a couple of games in their schedule in which they’ll be some chance of securing the four points.

The first of those is this weekend. The Kings host a Sharks team already attempting a massive rebuild, and who now start the season without their prime playmaker, Springbok flyhalf Pat Lambie, and a host of other injured players, including lock Ruan Botha and former Waratahs’ flanker Jacques Potgieter.

Africa 2 conference predictions were somewhat split between the Sharks, Lions, and the Jaguares, but the news this week that Lambie will be out for up to 12 weeks has caused serious rethought about the Durbanites. The Kings should be ready to pounce, because their next chance will be another month away.

Come Round 5, they host the Sunwolves on their maiden South African tour. This will be a winnable match for both teams, coincidently, and for the same reasons, but home-ground advantage should – hopefully – count for something for the Kings.

Beyond these two games, the pickings will be slim. Depending on how Tana Umaga’s rebuild is going, the Blues in Round 11 might be vulnerable in their first game on tour, while the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein in Round 12 looms as another possibility. That might be it, though.

I’m certainly not going to be so bold to say the Kings will win all four of these games, but they’ll win at least one of them. Someone will take them too easy for sure.

Sunwolves
The new guys from Japan have a squad with some names we’ve at least heard. Of the 34 players coach Mark Hammett named before Christmas, ten were in Japan’s Rugby World Cup squad, while flanker Andrew Durutalo featured in the US Eagles squad, and former Hurricanes flyhalf Tusi Pisi played for Samoa. Another three internationals were named, as were former Bay of Plenty lock Tim Bond, and former Queensland flanker Ed Quirk.

But Hammett being granted compassionate leave over the weekend to return home and mourn the loss of his mother is another disruption for an already heavily disrupted side.

I was initially giving them some chance of an upset over the Lions in their first ever game, but I’m not so sure about that now. They then have the bye in Round 2 (why?), meaning their maiden ‘home’ game in Singapore, against the Cheetahs in Round 3, shapes as their first chance. They’ll fancy their chances against the Melbourne Rebels in Round 4, too, but if the Rebels are to live up to my wildcard smokey tag, I really don’t want to entertain that thought.

The aforementioned Round 5 match in Port Elizabeth represents the next chance, while they should also target the return leg against the Cheetahs in Round 7. In Round 11, they host the Western Force, and in Round 13 play the Reds in Brisbane, which depending on how good the Ballymore rebuild is going, might be another chance.

The state of the Bulls and Sharks’ seasons, might mean the Sunwolves’ clash with both clubs in the last two rounds also present as opportunities, if their own season is going well. In all, the Sunwolves could win at least three games in their first season, which considering their build-up, would be some achievement.

Jaguares
We’re loath to read too much into trials, but Los Jaguares beating the Lions seven tries to four in Johannesburg over the weekend might be something.

Yes, it was an understrength Lions side, but this was a Jaguares side laced with internationals throwing down the gauntlet. African opponents now know the Argentines will be tough to beat.

They start their season with an African tour, but they can beat the Cheetahs and Sharks first up. They have the bye in Round 3, and then play their first home games against the Chiefs and Stormers. The Chiefs should present a challenge, but if they’re having trouble within their rebuilding forwards, then that could play into the Jaguares’ hands.

Similarly, the Stormers struggle away from South Africa, winning less than 40 per cent of games outside the Republic, and only three of the last 12 games since 2013.

Even being conservative while looking through their draw and giving the 50/50 games to the opposition, I can still find ten wins for the Jaguares in their debut season, which over the history of the conference format of Super Rugby has been magic number to secure a playoffs berth.

So there you go. By the end of March, we could easily see all three expansion teams on the board. Will it actually play out that way? Goodness knows!