We’re almost there now, just three teams to go in our NRL season preview series. Today we’re looking at the Melbourne Storm.
2015 in review: Efficient, effective, eliminated
Looking back with the benefit of hindsight, 2015 was rather an odd season for the Storm. On first glance one would think that a preliminary final appearance would be something to celebrate but at the time it seemed abundantly clear that the team was merely making up the numbers in the final four. They appeared to have played their big game in week one against the Roosters.
In many ways the big story for the 2015 season was the superb play of Cameron Munster. Munster took over the fullback role full time in the second half of the season after injury to Billy Slater and thrived in the role. As the big three era inevitably draws to a close in Melbourne it will be absolutely critical for the club to begin to identify the next generation of talent and Munster demonstrated that there can be a future for the club after those three giants of the game move on.
Off-season story: Nothing
Absolutely nothing.
The Storm are such a relentlessly efficient and professional organisation that the sort of day-to-day controversies that impair other clubs never seem to find their way to the south. Sure there’s the odd massive systematic salary cheating scheme but aside from that the team is the model of a modern professional sports team.
They do their business quietly and effectively.
Roster management
2016 gains: Cheyse Blair, Jeremy Hawkins Mark Nicholls, Matt White
2016 losses: Matt Duffie, Mahe Fonua, Ryan Hinchcliffe, Tom Learoyd-Lahrs, Kurt Mann
One of the biggest advantages of cheating the salary cap to the broad extent that the Storm did between 2007 and 2009 is not that you can retain your top stars but that you can retain a better class of role player. That is how for example the team could have then internationals like Jeff Lima, Sika Manu and Adam Blair on the bench for various grand finals.
However with the departure this offseason of Ryan Hinchcliffe the last vestiges of the salary cap cheating era are almost gone. Of the team that played the 2009 grand final, only four players are still on the roster: Will Chambers and the big three of Smith, Slater and Cronk.
While considerable turnover is to be expected over a six or seven year period, the reality is that the Storm’s roster is much thinner than it used to be. This season for example sees two key first graders in Hinchcliffe and Fonua departing along with some solid contributors such as Kurt Mann and Matt Duffie, with little coming in return.
Although many Raiders fans were aggrieved at the lack of opportunities given to both Nicholls and Hawkins in 2015, neither were particularly impressive in the time they did get in the top flight. Meanwhile, Cheyse Blair played only 16 games over two seasons at the Sea Eagles and Matt White is solid, dependable and no one’s idea of an impressive signing.
Meanwhile, losing Ryan Hinchcliffe in particular will be a major blow given his key role as a stand-up wrestler in defence and as a steady backup at dummy half for Cameron Smith during the representative third of the season.
Likely line-up
1. Billy Slater
2. Marika Koroibete
3. Cameron Munster
4. Will Chambers
5. Cheyse Blair
6. Blake Green
7. Cooper Cronk
8. Jesse Bromwich
9. Cameron Smith
10. Jordan McLean
11. Kevin Proctor
12. Tohu Harris
13. Dale Finucane.
14. Tim Glasby
15. Kenny Bromwich
16. Matt White
17. Nelson Asofa-Solomona.
As always the strength here is the spine, with even unheralded Blake Green making a strong contribution in 2015. However it is a renewed forward pack that keeps the team competitive. While the era of brining multiple internationals off the bench is long gone the team does still have a very strong starting forward pack. This includes three current Kiwi internationals and fine role players such as Finucane and McLean.
However that being said, the bench is as weak as it has been in years with pretty much any combination you can put together from the wider squad featuring at least one or two players who are fringe first graders at best.
The team is reliant particularly on Jesse Bromwich to stay healthy given his colossal work rate and stamina for a front rower. In 2015 Bromwich averaged 63.5 minutes, the most of any regular prop and played nearly 400 total minutes more than the next front rower on the list in Aidan Tolman. Furthermore Bromwich wasn’t simply occupying a spot on the field averaging a tick under 16 runs per game for 146m and nearly 34 tackles. If Bromwich were to get hurt the team would struggle.
Meanwhile, the backline is a mixed bag with all-time great Slater, Origin pro Chambers and burgeoning youngster Munster flanked on either wing by the boom or bust Koroibete and the underwhelming Cheyse Blair.
Player to watch: Tohu Harris
In a team littered with internationals and bona fide all-time greats, it seems odd to focus on a second rower who, while he has appeared for New Zealand, is far from an international regular. However Tohu Harris’s more modest credentials belie his importance to the team as the playmaking focal point of the team’s left edge.
You only need to look at the improvement in Harris’ statistics in the key playmaking categories from 2014 to 2015 to get a sense of his importance. In 2015 Harris recorded five tries (up from zero), six line breaks (up from two), four line breaks (up from one) and most impressively seven try assists which again was up from zero in 2014. Indeed Harris’ seven try assists was as many or more than several players who were full time halves and only two behind his teammate and left edge partner Blake Green.
2015 also represented a significant step up in minutes played for Harris as he went from being a 50-minute interchange player to an 80 minute starter. With a full season of that expanded role under his belt it will be fascinating to see if Harris can continue his upward trajectory in 2016.
Predicted finish: Make the eight
While the roster may be decidedly sparser than years past, Smith, Slater and Cronk are called the big three for a reason.
In an era in which the focus is squarely placed on the playmaking spine of an NRL team the Storm have two players who may well be the best ever at their position in Smith and Slater and another who is certainly top three in the game right now.
However as father time starts to catch up with each of them and as the supporting cast gets weaker it becomes ever harder to see this team play well enough on a weekly basis guarantee them a spot in the eight let alone the top four. Add to this the annual representative burden the team carries with the departure of Ryan Hinchcliffe to make that period even harder to manage than years past.
But while it is entirely possible that the Storm find themselves in a real struggle to make the eight, that by no means discounts them as a premiership contender. Until such time as Cam Smith, Billy the kid and Cooper Cronk are either retired or playing elsewhere, this team remains a threat even if they finish seventh or eighth in the regular season.
Benedict Arnold
Guest
As long as the big 3 are on the field the Storm will always be a threat. Every year for the last few years punters have placed them to finish short of the 8 and they continue to make the finals. This years squad will be stronger than last years' and I would expect them to go just as well if not better. If they can beat the lower end teams they are a chance of finishing further up the ladder than 4th. And with the interchange reducing, the Storm are one of the teams that will benefit from the change. They are one of the fittest sides. As for the ongoing "aging" commentary I think people need to realise that these days it doesn't mean much. It has been a constant source of a lot of people's conversation when they write off teams. Recent history actually shows that a lot of star players are actually playing better the older they get. Look at Corey parker, JT, Gallen and even Hodges in his final year. Sometimes age is just a number and means nothing when they step foot on the footy field.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Just a final comment on the 2009 team having NZ internationals on the bench, all of those players were not international players until they came to the Storm. Manu and Blair both debut for the Storm. It seems more a case of NZ keep picking players from the Storm rather than the other way around, same as the NZ internationals playing in the Storm team today....Proctor, Jessie, Tohu, Kenny all debut at the Storm. Also the 2012 premiership winning team bench was Hinchcliffe, Lowe, Faioso and Manu....not really renowned players but they still got the job done. I guess what I'm getting at is that maybe the salary cap wasn't as much of an advantage as people make it out to be and Storm are just good at getting the best out of their players. I actually rate this years bench as pretty decent comparatively and they also have competition in Nichols, Kaufusi and Welch.
Joe
Roar Rookie
The problem with the Storm the last two years is they couldn't find a decent left side back line defensive combination and was exposed by many teams during the year and big time by the Cowboys in the Prelims. It remains to be seen whether that issue has been fixed this year with the addition of Munster/Blair/Hawkins/Scott/Kennar whichever combo Bellamy decides to go with. Hopefully Munster or Blair is the solution there although Scott is looking pretty good for a starting spot as well. Of the players lost I think most are replaceable with the new imports + Finucane who will replace Hinchy except for Matt Duffy who's leaping ability will be missed. His aerial skill played a big part in the Roosters upset in the first weeks of finals and he was playing against Dan Tupou who is pretty good in the air himself. Duffy had a decent strike rate out-leaping his opponents for tries so whoever replaces him will need to make up for that individual brilliance somehow. The forwards this year look in much better shape than last year and the rookies from last year in Welch, Kaufusi and Asofa-Solomona will be much better for the experience. I think the other key forward is Jordan Mclean. When he was missing last year the forward pack struggled even with Jessie leading the way. He needs to be fit and on the park as much as possible. Another thing of note is that the big 3 had a good off season. Cam Smith was at his best for the All Stars and Cronk has said he is in the best shape since 2012. Cronk needed the rest as he wasn't really playing well in the finals last year and the fatigue was beginning to show. Hopefully that doesn't happen again this year. I'll be happy if they make the 8.
Chris Meister
Roar Guru
The Salary Cap thing came out 6 years ago, please stop dredging it up. Its really getting old. We did the crime and paid the price. We were not the only club with multiple internationals. Maybe there were others who were just better at covering it up or the NRL just didn't want to investigate. Move on please.
Greg
Guest
Agree that they are great at bringing on young kids due to the influence and experience of the Big 3 but disagree with the journeyman comment. I can only think of one or two older players who have gone to the Storm and succeeded but can think of plenty more who haven't.
Greg
Guest
+1. Hiring a dodgy sports scientist who had previously been employed at other NRL clubs then giving him the flick after 6 weeks doesn't even remotely compare to deliberately cheating for 5 years (2006-2010) like the Storm did.
MAX
Guest
Post of the day.
Dean - Surry Hills
Guest
Ding-ding, round 4 - Where's Charles when you need him? The same could be said for the release of Damien Cook by The Doggies. Mann is in the same boat. Both potential stars that will prove costly by seasons end for the teams that let them go. Saints were guilty last year for the release of Jack Bird. Everyone but the front office at The Dragons knew it.
P. Marlowe
Guest
Agree with that - I recall watching the Storm against the Warriors last year (where they struggled and lost). Asofa-Solomona seemed to be only one making meters but his stints on the field were short.
nerval
Guest
Nelson Asofa-Solomona looks like a mighty player, but Bellamy gives the impression that he remains unconvinced about him. He's simply got to give him more game time, or else I suspect that the player will soon want away.
Parrafan
Guest
Sorry Lachlan I think hate was too strong a word. I meant that its good to see that people hold such a time in their memory and the club and players are still held accountable. Richard if you paid any attention to what happened to Sharks it was a period of less than a month and I have little doubt that the players were dupped by Dank. The Sharks and Essendon programs were far away and apart in terms of knowledge and sophistication. But those discussions have been had a thousand times.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
The salary cap era is brought up to highlight the difference between the squad then and the squad now. You'll notice that no judgment is passed on that period, only accurate descriptions of the amazing squad depth. There is a huge difference between bringing Adam Blair and Jeff Lima in their prime off the bench compared to bringing Tim Glasby and Kenny Bromwich off the bench. The latter two are fine players, the former were mainstays of the New Zealand team at the time. if you can find bitterness, bias or hate in what I've written i'll be very surprised.
Ken
Guest
I think they'll still be hovering around the Top 4. They are definitely top heavy though and that makes them more fragile than other high-end teams. Smith, Slater & Cronk are all approaching mid-30's, and Bromwich carries the forward pack. They can't afford to lose any of those players for an extended run (although with Munster there, Billy is a little more replaceable than the rest) The mythical ability of the Storm and/or Bellamy to turn journeymen fringe players into high-performers is just that - a myth. They have examples of it, just like any team does, but it's mostly just been that amazing spine making players around them look better.
P. Marlowe
Guest
I largely agree with this. My two points of concern with the Storm are as follows: 1 I thought Blake Green's form really fell away towards the end of the season. They need more from him (particularly when Cronk is injured); 2 As mentioned in the article, their squad appears to be very thin. On the plus side, there is still alot of class in the starting 13. That Nelson Asofa-Solomona also looks like he could be some prospect.
Nambawan
Guest
Don't think Blair will make it at Melbourne - he lacks pace and was very poor over two seasons at Manly.
Richard Maybury
Guest
Its the way they bring on kids and rejuvenate old journeymen that makes the difference and the storm are masters at that. You write these blokes off at your peril.
Richard Maybury
Guest
Well said, I find it quite amusing that Cronulla's drug cheating is largely forgotten by the press already and yet every storm article still has to mention the ancient history that is the Melbourne SC affair. Bitterness and bias can be the only explanation.
Crosscoder
Roar Guru
The young gun class centre the Storm secured form the Sharks ,Curtis Scott ,is a great long term acquisition for that club.And TBH a tremendous loss for the Sharks. This club knows how to recruit,but also extract the maximum value out of the players they do.
The Barry
Roar Guru
A few years ago it was on trend to write Manly off. I fell into the trap once and said never again. Last year I wrote the Storm off. Lost too many players, big 3 getting old, too many fringe first grades. Well, never again. Cronk, Smith and Slater will win enough games off their own bat in key moments to keep them if not in, then around the top 4. Then you've got Bromwich who's a sensation and very good first graders in Chambers, Green, Harris, Proctor, Finucane. So yeah, not writing them off unless they get an injury crisis. So last year when Slater was injured, Munster went to fullback. That would make Kurt Mann Melbournes third choice fullback (at best) last season. And the dragons are moving the incumbent NSW fullback out of position to accommodate Melbournes third choice (at best) fullback? Good luck with that.
Parrafan
Guest
Top 4. Storm know how to turn fringe players into solid club men. The big 3 will only be less effective when they finally retire. Until then they will keep blitzing it. On a side note it's good to see the hate still permeating in relation to the salary cap affair.