Oakleigh Plate 2016: Historical preview and selections

The Oakleigh Plate is one of the best handicap sprint races in the country, and certainly my favourite at 1200 metres or under.

I have had some great results personally in the past seven or eight years, although last year wasn’t quite what I was looking for.

The most unique thing about this race is that barriers play very little part in the result. In fact, you are probably better off drawing wide than closer to the inside, which is quite unusual for a race at this distance.

One year an on-pacer will salute, the next a midfield or backmarker. It’s always a race with enormous depth and its share of quality performers, which of course makes it a tough challenge to find the winner.

Below are the last 13 winners and relative statistics (age, weight carried, barrier and starting price).

• 2015: Shamal Wind – 5M, 54kg, (14), $10
• 2014: Lankan Rupee – 4G, 56kg, (7), $4
• 2013: Mrs Onassis – 5M, 52.5kg, (11), $16
• 2012: Woorim – 6G, 55.5kg, (8), $21
• 2011: Eagle Falls – 5G, 57kg, (9), $21
• 2010: Starspangledbanner – 3C, 52kg, (6)
• 2009: Swiss Ace – 4G, 54kg, (18), $31 (I got $66!)
• 2008: Weekend Hussler – 3G, 53kg, (10), $2.10
• 2007: Undue – 5G, 57kg, (14), $15
• 2006: Snitzel – 3C, 51.5kg, (4), $11
• 2005: Fastnet Rock – 3C, 57kg, (6), $2
• 2004: Reactive – 5M, 52kg, (1), $16
• 2003: River Dove – 4M, 51.5kg, (10), $17

Statistics
1. Twelve of last 13 winners have first or second up when winning this. (Twelve of last 12). Not that significant given most of the runners attempt the race fresh from the spring. The vast majority of this year’s runners are in that category again.

2. Twelve of 13 aged between three and five years.

3. No horse has carried more than 57 kilograms to win in this period, but five have carried 55.5-57 kilograms.

4. Only one winner has drawn inside barrier four with wide draws being no disadvantage overall (seven from 13 were barrier nine or wider). Only one winner has drawn wider than 14.

5. Of those above that weren’t first-up winners, none were beaten more than 2.5 lengths at their previous start.

6. Five from 13 sired by a son or grandson of Danehill.

7. Average winning price is very high at $14, especially given there have been two winners around a $2 quote.

Looking at those statistics on a historical basis only, we can eliminate Flamberge (weight), Dothraki (barrier), Smokin’ Joey (age) , Éclair Choice (last start), Lord Of The Sky (barrier), Kuro (last start), Gregers (barrier), Atmospherical (barrier), Vezalay (barrier), Headwater (barrier) and Heatherly (barrier and not first or second up). Looking at early prices we can also delete Bounding and Keen Array who are under double-figure odds.

That leaves us with the following horses:

Fast ‘N’ Rocking
Fell Swoop
The Quarterback
Griante
Pittsburgh Flyer
Reldas
Swinging Arms
Secret Agenda

The last three are emergencies and probably won’t get a run with the possible exception of Reldas.

Of the above list I don’t quite see Griante as good enough, and maybe Pittsburgh Flyer and Reldas are in that same category. That leaves us with Fast ‘N’Rocking, Fell Swoop and The Quarterback as the most likely historical candidate.

#3 Fast ‘n’ Rocking
Ran third in this race last year with 2.5 kilograms less, and I’m not sure this field is any easier. He struggles to win having only a 15 per cent strike rate, and his first-up statistics read similar to that. He is sired by Fastnet Rock, though, who won this race and is a son of Danehill.

#8 Fell Swoop
In contrast has eight wins from 10 starts, and both those defeats have been on wet tracks (one on debut). On good tracks he is six from six and although he isn’t proven at this level, he doesn’t need to improve too much to be competitive with 53 kilograms, the lowest weight he has ever carried.

Fell Swoop also has the Danehill breeding, being a son of Not A Single Doubt. His early price is about the average winning price shown above, and it’s hard not to be keen on his chances.

#11 The Quarterback
A query at Group 1 level but has a good second-up record and has a good turn of foot on his day. At 1100 metres he probably isn’t at his best, though, and at 1200 metres he is probably a better horse at Flemington down the straight.

Bet suggestion
Historically, I will definitely be going with Fell Swoop as one of my bets in this race.

Analytically though I also have to recommend the three-year-old filly Heatherly. I spoke about the three-year-olds last week on The Roar and it’s very hard not to like her, given the time she ran winning the Rubiton two weeks ago.

She had a little in reserve and still ran 1.02.21 for the distance here which is low flying. Consider that when Lankan Rupee whizzed around here in 1.02.50 when winning the Rubiton in 2014.

Going on that alone you can see how well credentialled Heatherly is.

Coincidentally, both dropped one kilogram coming into this race, and she can run faster again. Historically the negatives are the inside barrier, and her not being first or second-up, but in reality, they are probably positives.

She will almost certainly lead unchallenged from an inside draw, and I doubt there has ever been a horse come into this race off a more impressive win. And she has a fitness advantage over every horse.

Predictions
1. Heatherly
2. Fell Swoop
3. Headwater (would have been very keen had he drawn better).
4. Keen Array