The New Zealand Warriors will win the 2016 NRL premiership. Apparently.
The Parramatta Eels will improve massively this year. Apparently.
The Manly Sea Eagles will dominate everybody. Apparently, in the 2016 NRL season it is all about attack. The Warriors recruited Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Issac Luke, and their combination with Shaun Johnson is supposedly going to take them to that big night in October. Okay, fair enough.
The Eels have the biggest signing in the club’s history, if you believe some of the experts, in Kieran Foran. He and Michael Jennings will alleviate all the Eels’ troubles and provide stability and speed, thus winning enough games for the Eels to make the top four. Seems reasonable. Moving on.
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The Sea Eagles have added Marty Taupau and Nate Myles in the forwards to provide some more grunt up front, plus Dylan Walker, who will use his great skills and experience as an outside back to play as partner to rugby league’s most expensive halfback, thus winning all the games!
I recently wrote an article about my beloved Canberra Raiders and their 2016 chances, due to their recent recruits in Aidan Sezer and Elliott Whitehead. To the top four, I say!
Even some Tigers fans have hope of a great season. Brooks and Moses have another year of showing off their skills at training. Hooray!
OK, this has to stop.
Stop acting as though attack is the only important part of rugby league. In almost every season preview of the teams that are apparently going to dominate or improve in 2016, there tends to be one sentence that refers to defence.
It generally reads as, ‘…if they can improve their defence, they have the attacking prowess to win games and make the finals’.
Defence is not an afterthought, people! Defence is fifty per cent of a rugby league game. You cannot simply pass off defence as something that just happens. You cannot just assume that a team’s flashy new players will bring success.
Take the Warriors as an example. The lethal trio of RTS, Luke, and Johnson is supposedly going to light up the competition and lead the Warriors into a new era of success. One problem with this theory is that the Warriors have never had a problem with offense!
Their problems have always been defence and mental strength in pressure situations. How is recruiting two players who only thrive off the back of a dominant forward pack going to change their fortunes?
Will the superstar trio score the 30 points needed to win a game when their forward pack is dominated? Time will tell, but it would be an incredible feat for it to happen on a regular basis.
The Eels are quite a well-rounded team, but to suggest them as one of the high-flying sides for the 2016 season is very ambitious, especially considering their ‘biggest ever signing’ is playing without his old mate next to him for the first time.
Michael Jennings has had some quality years, certainly, but you could question whether these days he is the kind of player you can build premiership hopes around. Again, defence is just as important as attack, and barely anyone is mentioning it with the Eels.
Manly has beefed up their forward pack, which has many people thinking this will provide them with the intimidation factor necessary to win games. Also, they have signed the excellent Dylan Walker, so that adds to their attack and gives them that extra push needed to be successful.
That argument will still be quite weak if this weren’t the case, but given he is a centre playing at five-eighth means it has even less of an impact and makes it irrelevant. Manly needs to stay in matches for the full 80 minutes and work effectively as a unit in defence to win games.
As for my Raiders, well, everyone made it quite clear in the comments of the aforementioned article how they feel about their top four hopes. But even I know that their defence needs to be a vast improvement on last year or they will not make a splash this year.
Edge defence has been a huge problem for them in recent years, and until it improves they will not be a force. The Raiders could have kept last year’s exact squad, improved their edge defence by 60 per cent and they would have been a top four team. But a 60 per cent improvement is a big ask, so optimism due to attacking brilliance it is.
Seems like I’ll just have to join the chorus of experts.
Bring on the attacking in 2016!
3 Hats
Guest
Well, Eagle JACK, My Rabbitohs just SMASHED the RORTERS 42 to 10. SO YES, I can be chirpy!
Jarrod Free
Roar Rookie
You'll find the article is not saying 'I told you so', as mentioned in one of the above comments. It is merely using the teams as examples of the excessive media focus on attacking rugby league.
MAX
Guest
Robbie has been programmed to play Origin and appear at Club games.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Have to agree with you there. I was expecting him to start in the halves with Johnson especially after he basically carried the team last year once Johnson was injured. What a waste sitting out on the wing...its not as if the Warriors can't crank out another winger from their production line of outside backs.
Ron Swanson
Roar Guru
Good call The Barry. As for the Warriors, McFadden needs a win before Round 3 or he is a goner. Why they kept him for start of 2016 and will most likely ditch him before Rnd 6, makes zero sense. I applauded Jim Doyle's appointment to smarten their act up, but the decision to persevere with a coach who lacks the respect of his troops, which is clear in their lethargic displays, is ludicrous. History suggested the Tigers would win, 9th season straight opening with a win & we all know the Warriors always lose the opener. Manly will take sometime to gel. Forwards lacked physicality & I'm not a huge fan of Nate Myles. Eels did well considering they lost Foran before kick-off & Norman. They should have a good season. The Raiders suffered a blow losing Austin & Sezer. Any word on Austin's injury?? Round 1, long way to go. Feel for Ben Henry, I doubt he will comeback from this latest set back, terrible news.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Anyone saying "I told you so" after round 1 is a muppet...
The Barry
Roar Guru
The Warriors are only weaker in the halves because they're playing one of the best young players in the comp on the wing.
Dean - Surry Hills
Guest
The Tigpies started last year in similar fashion. They gave The Saints a touch-up in round 2. We know how the rest of the season panned out for them. Early days, especially considering The Warriors trial form.
Cadfael
Roar Guru
Not a fan of either but there are still 25 rounds to go for them.
Parrafan
Guest
The only one in recent memory was Beau Scott. Arthur pretty much came out and said our right edge defence is rubbish so we bought Scott.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Of the Eels, Manly, Tigers and Warriors I thought the Warriors were the worst. It looked like every time the Tigers got within shot they'd score as the Warriors defense looked so disjointed. Then 2nd half it was the other way around, it looks like they're both attacking teams who just hope to score more points than they let in. I'd be surprised if either make top four. Manly just couldn't hold the ball which is why they got so many points put on them. Giving the opposition that much ball in your half will end up with them getting points. They also need Stewart back at fullback.The Eels I thought were ok in defense against a really good Broncos outfit. Missing both their first choice playmakers meant their attack was really disjointed but they put in a lot of effort in defense.
Sports Fan
Guest
Maybe worst performance you've seen from RTS, but he wasn't a mile away from a good performance, either, with 200m (second best on field) and 14m per run (best on field). He's a fullback, therefore his performance & stats fluctuate plenty. By 50% according to his pack making ground and his halves feeding him. And by another 50% for bounce of ball, being in position for a linebreak, to get over the line, etc. I think he'll have a poorer year than last year. But that's probably odds-on since he broke all sorts of running records last year. Both RTS & Johnson are attacking guns. I think Isaac Luke is quite overrated. Probably about 5-6th best hooker in his best year and 8th best on average. Needs a pack of workers around him as he doesn't toil in defence. Probably too small to do that. Mannering & Matulino have terrific workrate, then it drops away far too much, with inadequate depth in forwards & backs. You get that when you pay one third too much for recruits. For all the hype on the spine, you have to compare to Storm, Cowboys, Broncos - Warriors are behind them. Could argue the Dragons on a good day can match it with Warriors spine & probably the Sharks, if Bird or Holmes switch to fullback. Pretty sure they paid a truckload less, which they can spend on forwards and juniors.
Richard Maybury
Guest
Manly were always going to struggle, they have built a brand new team there. That is why I thought that predictions of them being a top 4 team were over done. It is going to take them a little while to gel and the only question is when ?
Renegade
Roar Guru
?
pigman
Guest
Your so right. 1 round in and Barrett and the boys shouldn't even aim for anything higher than the wooden spoon. I'm so glad your crystal ball has gifted us with its pessimistic portent. Kudos, I bet you waited all summer just to say 'I told you so'.
Alex L
Roar Rookie
Farah is monstrously overrated.
sham
Guest
The Warriors have lost Townsend and are weaker in the halves.Sure they have bought well but they have not changed their forwards much. I predicted the tigers win and I was not surprised just how bad the defence from the Warriors was in the first half. I hope the Warriors improve. As for Manly it is early days but people keep forgetting to mention that they have lost a great player in Foran. They are clearly weaker in the halves but stronger elsewhere. Parramatta on the other hand are stronger across the board.
Steve
Guest
I agree... Luke looked disinterested and frankly a bit overweight. No surprise to me...he didn't have his mind on the job last year either and it showed in Souths performances. Unlike Maguire, McFadden is not s disciplinarian and I reckon that was one of the attractions for him going there. I can see the Warriors struggling this year while they keep him at DH....unless he gets his act together.
Chui
Guest
If that's the worst round one performance you've seen, then it must be fun watching the game for the first time. As a Manly supporter, I can think of at least two worse than that alone ?
Renegade
Roar Guru
Robbie Farah didn't play... Hint hint