It can be hard to keep track of the amount of Super Saturdays we have for racing in this country, but the one for the Flemington autumn is this weekend with the running of the Australian Cup and the Newmarket Handicap, each race worth in excess of $1 million.
Australian Cup
The Australian Cup has brought together a competitive field with a mix of imports, veterans and mares.
Bow Creek broke his Aussie duck in the Peter Young Stakes last start, always a traditional lead-up to this race, as evidenced by providing eight of the 11 runners here. He’d caught the eye or been unlucky in a couple of his previous starts in this country but was finally able to score with authority, overcoming difficulty to do so.
He showed weight-for-age class acceleration charging through gaps to put away a quality field, and should be even harder to beat at Flemington. He has been handed the visitors draw though, so won’t have it all his own way.
Our Ivanhowe was the unlucky runner behind Bow Creek that day, with plenty to give in the straight, but no room to give it. He may not have beaten the winner home, but he may well have made it a contest. Lee Freedman hasn’t been short on the spruik with him, and he is a deserved second favourite.
Fenway gave it her best shot to run Bow Creek down, but was beaten by a better horse on the day. She’s a good one though, and will be somewhere thereabouts. She appears the overs in the early markets from an each-way perspective.
Awesome Rock put in a supreme effort to run fourth after being three and four wide for a long time in the early stages. He’s starting to become a very good horse, but needs to target something easier. A race like the Easter Cup should be right up his alley.
Happy Trails was good working into his prep, and is a better horse at Flemington. He might just be a length off his best these days though, which won’t be enough to contend. Rising Romance was due to draw a barrier, and is sure to run well. She’ll get her chance if good enough.
Almoonqith pleased first-up, also in the Peter Young, but is unlikely to beat all of these. You’d listen to someone making a case for him to run a drum though.
Of those coming from races other than the Peter Young, Preferment is the clear pick after he resumed well behind Winx in the Chipping Norton. The two best wins of his career have been at Flemington, one of them over this trip, and hitting 2000m second-up appeals as the right recipe.
Extra Zero will run well at despised odds, as he did last year when second at 100-1. Suavito, already a Group 1 winner this prep, is the danger horse stepping up 600m from her close range defeat to Turn Me Loose. She’s only had one crack at 2000m as an older mare, when she won the Matriarch Stakes here, so is another major player.
This is a good horse’s race, and it has attracted a field full of them.
Selections
1. Preferment
2. Our Ivanhowe
3. Bow Creek
4. Fenway
Newmarket Handicap
The Newmarket Handicap is at its best with a champion taking on a big field including a few three-year-olds in the mix. Two out of three ain’t bad, I suppose.
Chautauqua is that champion, or at the least champion-in-making. He resumed with a breath-taking finish to win the Lightning Stakes, giving his backers heart palpitations and his fans thrills.
We know the story by now – get back, wait until hope is all but lost, and then accelerate to the post in a flash of unmatched speed. It’s a recipe that usually ends in a win or a second, which only makes it all the more exciting, because he doesn’t get there every time.
It’s fantastic for racing that he’s taking on the task with 58 kilograms, and what a lesser event this would be without him here.
Delectation beat Chautauqua in the Darley Classic back in spring, and receives two kilograms benefit from that win. Was Chautauqua on the inferior ground that day? Yes. Was it worth more than two kilograms? Probably. Can’t wait to find out.
Japonisme is also a Group 1 winner down the straight, in the Coolmore Stud Stakes in spring. He confirmed his credentials when third in the blanket finish Lightning Stakes behind Chautauqua and Terravista, and gets 2.5 kilograms weight relief from that day. He just keeps improving.
Keen Array and Counterattack filled the placings behind Japonisme in the Coolmore, and the trifecta clashes again here, with these two getting 2.5 kilograms of weight relief of their own from that race.
Both horses have only been seen once since. Keen Array flopped in the Oakleigh Plate when well supported, so can only be taken on trust. Counterattack ran well in the Eskimo Prince, which has become Randwick Guineas winning form with Le Romain running second there. He must be respected.
Secret Agenda is the fourth three-year-old in the race, and the lone filly, but what an intriguing proposition she is. She took to the straight like greased lightning back on Oaks day, thumping a handy field, but couldn’t quite hold on first-up at the Valley.
Churchill Dancer is a straight specialist at big odds given he was two lengths off Chautauqua and one length off Delectation here in the Gilgai, and meets them both significantly better at the weights in this. His Australia Stakes second looks even better now that Holler has won a Group 1 since, and Rebel Dane, in third behind him, has been excellent at weight for age.
The Quarterback was one of the eye-catchers in the Oakleigh Plate, and was always going to be good each-way value here. He’s a must for wider multiples.
Charmed Harmony is just getting ready for the Victoria Handicap. The connections of Tiger Tees will be excited with a bit of rain around. Black Heart Bart was last seen running second in a Perth Group 2 over 2100m, and if Darren Weir pulls this one off then we can all go home.
There should be enough tempo that every horse gets their chance, as they almost always do up the straight, and let’s just hope that track bias doesn’t come into play. Can the champ do it? We can be grateful that he’s taking it on.
Selections
1. Churchill Dancer
2. Japonisme
3. Chautauqua
4. Delectation
Coolmore Classic
The Coolmore Classic can vary its depth from year to year, and while it usually takes a pretty good horse to win one, for many mares it’s the only time they get close to a Group 1. Something of a crack field has been assembled this time though.
The unbeaten Godolphin filly Ghisoni is the early favourite, but something of a false one for mine. Yes, she’s a good size for her age and only has 50kgs on her back, but she had every possible favour in winning first-up, and won’t get it as easy here. Not saying she can’t win, but is unders at the very least.
Solicit has been the subject of much positive talk this campaign, even before she began her prep, and she’s been putting the points on the board. Second to Winx in the Apollo before getting her win in the Guy Walter, she’ll be tough and honest.
While Ghisoni and Solicit will be up the front making the running, Azkadellia and Politeness will be the main two charging home, each capable of running sizzling sectionals.
Azkadellia is a multiple Group 1 winner-in-waiting, so you might as well start backing her now and don’t stop. If every horse in the race gets their chance, she’ll be winning. It shouldn’t be for a lack of speed, and she can overcome that anyway.
Politeness will appreciate being back to mares after a couple of runs in open class, and if she brings her best she’s capable of winning, but it’s hard to see her defeating Azkadellia at the weights if both get to find the post on equal terms.
Amicus looks well in at the weights and over the odds. She’s getting a reputation for mixing her form, and can be hard to catch. Lucia Valentina can produce a bottler first-up and would love any give in the ground, but always gets asked to carry her share of weight.
First Seal form is Group 1 standard, so Telepathic must be taken seriously after chasing that mare home off a six-week break. She’ll have taken much benefit from the run, and of course has the Chris Waller polish.
Zanbagh, Tinto, Vergara and Peeping all ran well enough behind Solicit in the Guy Walter to concede them some sort of chance here, especially meeting the winner much better at the weights, as they all do. Pearls was even behind Ghisoni in the Surround, but can figure in the finish with a cosy run from gate two.
Every horse comes into the race with a reasonable claim in what shapes as a very good handicap, and the Coolmore can provide a winner at odds, which adds to the intrigue.
Selections
1. Azkadellia
2. Telepathic
3. Zanbagh
4. Politeness
kv joef
Roar Guru
great racing in both states again. Highlight are the G1 handicaps. In both instances, as Cam pointed out, some very well handicapped horses. Typical class v. weight contests. i was genuinely surprised with the low international rating of the Lightning Hcp this year. Personal evaluation = it was a mistake. the Newmarket should confirm this opinion. As mentioned above, Chris Waller's two three-year-olds, Japonisme and Counter Attack are weighted to win but I'm going to stay with the Chau to prove, once and for all, that our quality group of sprinters over the last few years are the real deal. Can you believe Not Listen'ToMe is rated a point above Chau in this year's first international rankings release that included the Lightning performance? I can't imagine a racing circumstance where NLTM would beat Chau. Anyway, Chau gets a shot at 'era' greatness this afternoon. The Coolmore throws up a similar proposition with Azkadellia and Ghisoni against proven G1 horses, Lucia Valentina and Politeness. I've formed the opinion that Azkadellia is a G2 horse and not sure if the racemap will favour her. interesting choice selecting Brett Prebble as her rider when Sydney riding ranks run so deep. Ghisoni, hasn't raced under the pressure she finds in this race but will get a lot of favours from the running and she should measure up to the open-mare G-class. Politeness may not be as disadvantaged as many speedmaps have her. i would expect great patience from Berry, nothing clever, just clear air from the top of the straight. Lucia Valentina looks great value. Can't disagree with the Preferment / Our Ivanhowe AU-cup Q. Pace authenticity may be a prob for them. Not dismissing Suavito for a second as she is a wonderful mare with a 2:01+ Flem G2m 2000m in her CV ... and the stables international talk IMHO, is not wishful thinking. Dwayne Dunn is back on Happy Trails ,,, nice move, In other Melb races, thought Detective looked strong in the Sires, he should get the 1400m. The clash between Bassett, Brockman and Stellar Collision is a ripper. The buzz on The United States is interesting but not for mine. in Syd, thought the 2yr-old last GS qualifiers were v. curious affairs. Wouldn't expect a contender to come out of them unless there is an unraced smokey somewhere. The PharLap Stks is a good race with plenty of depth ... should learn a lot. Talk of tough races, the AJAX is a mind-bender --- let's see who the smartest jockey is? All-in-all, a terrific Newmarket day with great racing layered on.
Nathan Absalom
Roar Guru
Well I guess I won't get 1000/1 about a United States-Rock Sturdy double this week, but I reckon it's worth a go again. I'm going to forgive Happy Trails last run, he's always put in bad ones for no apparent reason. I reckon he might get a nice trail into the race behind Bow Creek, and at 20/1 if he runs as up to his 1st up run he's a great each-way bet.
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
Managed to pick the same 3 in Trifecta again Cam. Not sure that is a good thing though!
Sausages
Guest
Some interesting selections there Cameron. Liking the value you have injected there! It is indeed super Saturday. Telepathic is definitely an each way special in Sydney. Nice work.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Cheers for Red Bomber last week andrew-well done mate :)
Cameron Rose
Expert
Good call on Keen Array, there's some value in the race. All fair commentary, and I'm with you on Ghisoni. I think we'll see Azkadellia jump as favourite, and possibly a strong favourite.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Agree on Azkadellia Andrew. If it goes the Sydney way and doesn't strike bad luck, she wins. A double with her and Stratum Star looks a great play. I'll be throwing Badawiya in to make a trixie too, similar to your comments about her. She's there to win, and is clearly good enough. Should sit close and explode away.
Cameron Rose
Expert
It was a really strong win from Bow Creek wasn't it. But gee I reckon Our Ivanhowe would have given him a fight. Looking forward to the re-match. I'm not sure I agree with Pepper Jack below about the quality of the race.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Thanks Ryan, they were a couple of handy results. Badawiya went from Murtoa maiden to Group 2 winner and Group 1 place-getter last prep, and the form around her was of a high calibre. She's a great each-way bet in the Kewney at at $6.50 mark. They really do appear the obvious three in the Aus Cup don't they. All have shown the class, but still untapped. All fair points on the Newmarket.
Darren Clayton
Roar Rookie
I think Keen Array will be a different horse over 1200m this week and he is best at value- he is 2 from 3 at 1200m. He probably should have run in the Lightning at WFA but Hayes went via the Oakleigh to protect his handicap for this. Peeping is a value play in the Coolmore. I dont see how Ghisoni is favourite. Peeping is 3 from 4 at Rosehill and meets Solicit (who I think is the horse to beat) 2.5kg better off than when she finished 3rd to her in the Guy Walter. Has won 3rd up at her last 2 preps. Only concern is the wide gate. Now that Mourinho is out it might help Bow Creek break a hoodoo. No horse has won the Cup from gate 1 or gate 11 in over 35 years. Suavito for me in this, should get the right run and she is hitting all the right notes. Fenway is the odds play, settles handy to the front and if there is no pace can get going early in the straight and give them a target. She is was 2nd up in the Peter Young- didn't trial before her 1st up effort and is a G1 winner over 2000m.
andrew
Guest
FLEM 4 – futurity clearly strongest formline. It was a good edition of the race this year. Stratum star was 1st home in the futurity of those running here. Happy to tip it on top and back it at around $3. Expect this to be not so strongly run as the cracking speed huckielbuck set in futurity and stratum star has the versatility to and barrier to sit 3rd or 4th and react to whatever race tempo eventuates. I cant see him not getting a perfect run one off rail kenjorwood the only speed runner drawn inside him, the other on-pacers are drawn outside. USA on the other hand is a horse who had a cups prep last spring and goes in 2nd up here only 200m further in distance into a likely more tactical race. he would need a flying tempo up front for mine to run past stratum star. There are numerous half chances and others who can improve, but not to crosses come up in the stratum star checklist and he sort of picks himself. 5 – splitting the coin up a bit in this race, but keen to play. Catch a fire top pick off a dominant win last time when worked up the hill and around the top bend, sat outside the lead, and put them away. I cant back anything from that race to turn the tables, even if there was some traffic issues for Egypt. Pretty confident she will hold that form and that makes her a good place bet for multis. Badawiya goes in first up. often they need the run 1st up, but when they resume this late into the autumn and in a good race, I think they are more likely to be primed first up to run well, as opposed to just getting fit, and no doubt she has the class. Small saver ew labdien who is silly odds for a last start waller winner, sure this is tougher but both runs in melb have been good, the first in a very strong form race (two subsequent group winners ahead of her) and her last win over purupussful giving it 2.5kgs who then ran 4th (beaten a few lengths) behind catch a fire. 6 – im a chataqua man, but the hcp sure makes this an interesting race as to whether he can give the waller 3yo’s the weight and beat them. No absolute moral, but I will be investing in his corner, and expect you might get close to $3 on the day when the market narrows down. 7 – fascinating race as the scr of mourinho leaves the tempo in serious doubt. This will be a tactical race and the best ride is most likely to win. Bow creek was unlucky first up and got the split 2nd up. or, was he lucky 2nd up to get that split. You can argue either way. The reality is, outside barrier not a bad thing, and for first time in aust i think we will see him make a run around/outside horses, not looking for gaps through the field. still, he will need to be good to win. The % play is not to come from last, circle the field and win. He is highly susceptible to a slow run race sitting out the back. All the other jocks will know it. As soon as oliver tries to make move, everything will flush him out, so he wont be allowed to just creep into the race. a real game of dare and tactics will ensue. That said, on quality, I think he has them covered. So you are really gambling on race shape, which is a serious risk. So, who are likely beneficiaries. Fenway beat the rest of them in the peter young and she will sit in the first 3 and is high quality. Suavito is 1400m up to 2000m, but I don’t think this will be brutal race (ie, the cleaner) which helps and she did beat most of these in a ‘sprint’ in the Orr. These are the principal 3 for me. A bit against preferment, the turnball win was flattering a bit and its SWP race, not WFA, and whilst I rate our Ivanhoe not sure gate 1 helps and think the BMW is his race in 2 weeks time. 8 – miss rose de lago is drawn wide but finds the front pretty easily and it was good run first up and the form from that race held up last week with waiwail winning and choose placing. The big unknown is noble protector, on her autumn 2015 form she is a 5/4 chance, but you couldn’t back her on her spring form when she didn’t come up. from a noted punting stable, my suggestion here would be to bet late. And if the money comes noble protector you might as well take the unders and join in. but if she drifts, then miss rose de lago is the logical one to default to. ADL 5 – keen on prestbury park who is a promising young stayer and his record out to 2000m and beyond is good. don’t mind the jockey either, rides with a lot of vigour, which helps in these lower class staying races. Been running with 59/60 and some weight relief helps, but his winning form is good form, and absolute tragedy beat (I was on it and tipped it here) when he ran 2nd at colac. SYD I will be backing two vic horses ridden by brett prebble in sacred eye who wasn’t suited leading last time but is every bit as good as the top bracket of 3yo fillies for mine and she takes on the 2nd string males here. But the big play is azkedellia in the coolmore. Trainer has been patient and this is the race she has set to peak for, and it’s a logical race to choose given it’s a hcp. Most of these ran in the myer classic under set weights and her run that day on a leaders track was superb. she meets solicit 3kgs better for spanking her, politeness (who is overs) 3.5kgs better and all the others at same weights or slightly better she gave windburn to in the straight in the myer. Im pretty confident of those who ran in the myer she will be first home here. As for gisoni, it’s a hard one to judge, but amicus who was 9th last start ran the same time as its ‘win’ on the same day. Gisoni and azkedellia meet under WFA terms, so don’t tell me gisoni is in light. Go take that argument up with admiral rous who invented the WFA scale 200yrs or so ago. I couldn’t back gisoni to beat azked at WFA. Azked has had two soft runs this time in, sitting out the back in slowly run races and running home really hard, this is a perfect lead up prep, she hasn’t been gassed or had tough runs. But we know she can do it tough and sustain a long 600m run, as she showed on cox plate day, if she needs to. The barrier is perfect, I think she sits 4 pairs back in 8th or 9th one off the rail. The tempo will be genuine, its not going to be some tactical dawdle. I think she is ready to explode on sat and being able to back her on an ew basis is a luxury, as the syd bookies will let you on and risk her. Best: prestbury park, azkedellia, stratum star Best multi: catch a fire, prestubry park, azkedellia all to place at around $7.50.
Pepper Jack
Guest
This has to be the lowest Aust Cup in years
Razzar
Guest
Looks like an entertaining weekend of racing. But as usual tough races everywhere. The Australian Cup is where I land for reasonable chance for a winning day. Bow Ceeks win in the Peter Young was breathtaking, he smashed that field late. With only moderate pace,in this race, could be his only reason for being beaten. But rock hard fit, I rate him a 2/1 chance. Probably his only threat comes out of the Futurity. Suavito will sit near the mild pace, and when they straighten she should be the one reaching the lead, also rock fit. But the likely soft run. Bow Creek will need to pull out all reserves to run her down. I rate her a 5/2 chance. Adelaide Cup Monday, been following Last Wish of recent. A dry track is required, and it is a step-up. But can't knock winning form. I'm sure master trainer McEvoy knows his stuff. 15$ is there on fixed. Looks a nice one at odds. The fave is just silly odds.carring 59 over 3200, and its 5/4. Maybe a chance at the quinella. Good luck punters and have a great weekend.
ryan
Roar Rookie
Well done last week Cam. Selenia and Tom Melbourne were two specials thrown in on the non Group 1s, good work! I have the same trifecta on the Australian Cup, but leaning towards Our Ivanhowe based on his last run. I'll take Counterattack in the Newmarket for the odds. Waller horses always run well down the straight, he has no weight, Bossy on board. Japnisme the threat. I'll risk Chautauqua this week with the bigger weight. And more tips for other races this weekend Cam? I reckon Revolving Door will beat home Seaburge again for the exacta at Flemington.